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Elon "About to end range anxiety"
- Thread starter Lump
- Start date
It is not *necessarily* worse.
Yes, resistive loses at 44kW are higher than at 22kW but those loses are not the only one. One needs to analyze the complete system to see what exactly is going on.
Remember that Chameleon charger of Zoe that could charge at 1 and also at 43kW but its efficiency under ~10kW was abysmal? Even though resistive losses at less than 10kW were certainly lower than at 40kW, cumulative losses where still much higher.
Only tesla knows the exact efficiency of its drive train at various loads. MicroSleep could maybe help but would also increase noise etc.
But range increase itself can never ever end range anxiety. Range anxiety does not come from knowing you don't have enough range, it comes out of not being certain it is enough.
More accurate prediction one can trust will end range anxiety. There is another simple trick to force people to stop gambling (and lessen the worry): when range drops to 0, car stops. Never mind the SOC and some miles of reserve left. It says 0, so it stops.
And one can start to rely on 0 being actual 0.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Originally Posted by DriverOne
OTA adds a button which summons a self-driving Supercharger to your location.
+1000
mgemmell
Scottish chap
Ok, jokes and wild speculation aside, having read the entire thread (!) these seem to capture the most likely points that the OTA update will improve:
Most of these seem pretty logical, are purely based on SW, and will deal with range anxiety very well.
Mind you, they are all areas my startup is working on so if they are correct its back to the drawing board for me!
Trying to second-guess a genius like Elon and the super-smart Tesla team sure is hard work.
Most of these seem pretty logical, are purely based on SW, and will deal with range anxiety very well.
Mind you, they are all areas my startup is working on so if they are correct its back to the drawing board for me!
Trying to second-guess a genius like Elon and the super-smart Tesla team sure is hard work.
Yes, people are too lazy, that's why SW update will add an "advisor": When you will enter your car, it will ask you "where do you want to go today?" and you say "Oh, I'd like to drive to lake Tahoe!".
The car will analize the anwser and output its predictions:
a) No problem, lets go!
b) You see, we don't have enough energy reserve. You need to charge for another 10 minutes before leaving or stop for a quick supercharging at XY".
c) Another roadtrip sir? No problem, but we'll need to stop at ZX to recharge and you can take a quick bite while waiting.
d) I must inform you that there are strong and cold winds overthere that will significantly increase consumption so we need to stop at XY to be safe.
What range anxiety?
Edit: It will do it the Apple way: it won't list 123433 possibilities and demand you pick one, it will calculate the one it is best under some criteria and offer it to you.
Yes, there will be options to request another suggestion. And of course, one will be able to completely ignore suggestion and stop wherever he likes.
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deonb
Active Member
A more accurate prediction is not going to do anything when you arrive at your destination with 50 miles charge left, and you just found out that the only charge option within 100 miles in either direction now looks like this:
But even in a world where chargers are always functioning perfectly, the prediction can be 100% accurate. It doesn't know headwinds or tailwinds, or exact traffic pattern, or trucks you can slipstream behind, or how much weight you have in the car.
The fact remains that in some places, chargers are few and far between, and the only way you can make it is to drive the car beyond the limits of any range estimation. And since the prediction will always be off, this will always be a valid, albeit scary option.
I totally agree though that the announcement will most likely be a better trip calculator, but I'm also equally sure it will do very little to alleviate the real range anxiety situations out in the wild.
brianoflondon
Member
I suggest he’s going to give you what we have in our Renault’s in Israel: state of charge prediction at destination. Added bonus: automatic route planning via Super Chargers.
Here’s my full prediction.
Here’s my full prediction.
Why in the world would you do that?
You could also stop at that charger 100miles away before going to that distant and isolate destination, charge to ~250 and arrive with 150 left not relying on that single unreliably charging option. If it happens to be like pictured you are still fine to go.
Range anxiety is always drivers fault - he was too optimistic, relying on unrelyable. Having a car yelling at you to stop and charge where you still can will reduce opportunities for owner to F*** it.
Besides, car could and should and would know current state of all nearby charging options far better than anyone owner.
Besides, public charging options are not the only options, every electrical outlet is a charging opportunity. They are just so much slower. Slow charging beats walking anytime.
Elon is quirky and brilliant at the same time. The key as most have stated relates to improved navigation regardless of how that gets done.
I also wonder why a press conference? The pessimist in me believes that Elon has seen the stock go down by more than 100+ points and knows that a successful press conference will help reverse "some" of that loss.
Besides he is tired of getting questions about the X reveal and this is a good way to change the discussion, at least for a little while.
I also wonder why a press conference? The pessimist in me believes that Elon has seen the stock go down by more than 100+ points and knows that a successful press conference will help reverse "some" of that loss.
Besides he is tired of getting questions about the X reveal and this is a good way to change the discussion, at least for a little while.
State of charge prediction at destination was added in v6.1. It works very well. The piece that is missing is automatic routing via chargers, and that's what we're going to get on Thursday.
Sign me up! I (and most people I suspect) drive 2 ways: either for range or for local travel. Locally I don't care about range, and performance matters more. On trips, I would be thrilled with a "lame" mode that reliably added even 30 miles to my real world range. Although I'm sure the marketing folks could come up with a better name to put on the button!
Although, no matter what, there is nothing that you could do to get the car to exceed it's "ideal" range. If I understand correctly, that's done at constant speed at the perfect temperature on a perfectly flat road with no wind. No amount of "laming" is going to do better than that.
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Yes, but it's inaccurate - at least in cold weather. On one longer trip that I make, it will tell me that I've got 10-15% more charge than I need, but as I go down the road the prediction gets progressively gets worse until it tells me that I won't make it there. And I drive this trip ridiculously carefully and slowly.
Better prediction would be of some value. But I'm still fantasizing about this announcement:
1. We lied to you all about the cells! They're not 3.1Ah! They're 4.0Ah. 29% extra capacity from this.
2. You have 20% more batteries in there than we claimed! We hoped that nobody would take the pack apart and count them, and you didn't! 20% extra capacity from this.
3. It turns out that we can go deeper in the "brick protection", and charge a little more. 10% extra capacity from this.
4. We've introduced a new inverter control algorithm that reduces mean consumption by 10%.
Totaling it up, the net result of all of this is a range increase of 87%!
Sigh. I suspect I'm destined to be disappointed.
EternalChampion
Member
We know that the car has the ability to drive in autopilot mode. In range mode with autopilot engaged, they may let the car essentially drive itself to increase efficiency. Take human inefficiency out of the equation on the longer trips. I think it'll be along these lines with some of the other suggestions already listed.
this. +1
6. They might also have included an algo which actually calculates the minimum charging time needed in order to safely arrive at your destination, so that you don't have to charge for more time than necessary at slow chargers.
7. It'd be even better if Tesla would certify other (i.e. public/private) chargers around the world and highlight those on the nav map, so that Model S would preferably re-route to the next Tesla Certified Charger (TCC) near you. (many of you have mentioned this in one form or another, too!)
I agree with those who've said that increased range (via battery/motor/algo improvements) has nothing to do with ending range anxiety (unless you increase real-world range way above 500 miles). Some people will always have the anxiety to get stranded somewhere eventually because with their Tesla they can't go to the next gas station (which are highly visible and abundant) and refill within 10 minutes. And this has always been key argument for FUDsters, namely that EV chargers were not abundant and it took "hours" to recharge.
Imagine you have 100 miles to go to reach your destination and your Model S has only 50 miles of estimated range. If above mentioned features would assist you, you'd be re-routed to the next Tesla Certified Charger around the corner and the software would tell you "Please plug-in at this TCC for a minimum of xx minutes to regain 50 miles of range in order to get you to your destination". I'm quite sure this would end range anxiety for most people who have those fears to either get stranded with an empty battery or having to charge for hours somewhere in a strange neighbourhood.
TCC features would include: 24 hours availability
Up-to-date information on free/occupied sockets
Paypal or credit card compatibility
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I'm sticking to my earlier prediction of NAV upgrades with SC routing. What would be really cool is if we could see SC status from within the car, showing each stall, and guidance as to which stall to use upon arrival for optimal charging rate. Many people still don't get SC cabinet pairing.
I had proposed this awhile back in addition to SC reservations, but I don't think the latter will happen. It will remain first come first serve.
I had proposed this awhile back in addition to SC reservations, but I don't think the latter will happen. It will remain first come first serve.
...
Better prediction would be of some value. But I'm still fantasizing about this announcement:
1. We lied to you all about the cells! They're not 3.1Ah! They're 4.0Ah. 29% extra capacity from this.
2. You have 20% more batteries in there than we claimed! We hoped that nobody would take the pack apart and count them, and you didn't! 20% extra capacity from this.
3. It turns out that we can go deeper in the "brick protection", and charge a little more. 10% extra capacity from this.
4. We've introduced a new inverter control algorithm that reduces mean consumption by 10%.
Totaling it up, the net result of all of this is a range increase of 87%!
Sigh. I suspect I'm destined to be disappointed.
Other than being solidly founded in fantasy land, no amount of range will "end range anxiety".
Anxiety is caused by not knowing.
Accurate navigation and prediction removes that unknown, thus removes the anxiety.
You hop into the car, it takes your battery SOC, range to destination, elevations along route, temperatures and perhaps even wind speed and direction and the car tells you YES or NO. No mystery, no anxiety.
Add to that automatic routing to SuperChargers or public chargers and you have, IMO, the best way to remove range anxiety for the most people.
Why didn't Elon think of that? You sir should be the new CEO! But all kidding aside i think it's a energy efficiency OTA
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