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Elon and Ukraine

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Some context from a Ukrainian: Elon's "poll" rubbed UA the wrong way.

They're on edge, all of UA lost someone they know. However realistic, good Elon's intentions are. As with "The French guy says this stuff is good for Covid" - poll was an example of not enough research.
Crimea was Turkish for the longest time, before RU conquested them from Nth attempt, then cleansed by Russia from Tatars in 1940's, who were not allowed to come back till late 80's. UA realized that, and gave Crimea its autonomy, where Tatars flourished, before annexed by Russia again, and now conscripted, so, genocide attempt #2 (or 3). I vacationed in Crimea every summer, and stayed with "Maria" who's parents were given a Tatar house in the 1940's. Surreal.
As for the different regions leaning RU way. That's the power of the media and poll manipulation. I was a part of fighting voting fraud in 2003/2004 revolution, but it was disheartening when 4 years later a Russian marionette wins, through massive media presence, and some voter fraud. So quoting that map, is indeed what the situation *was*.
I left UA then, as I promised to myself that I won't live under Yanukovich - the russian puppet, who subsequently was overthrown, and fled UA. So, UA has evolved, from identifying like an "inferior province of Great Culture of Russia" to "we're forging our own future". With each generation, the changes are inspiring. So quoting 2008 polls is misguided and rubbed an emotionally exhausted UA the wrong way.
Elon is technically brilliant and knows how destructive and unproductive nukes are. He's also a realist, but operating with obsolete data in this case.
A mid-rank ambassador's reaction with an f word, is an emotional one, and by no means reflects the position of high-ranking UA officials, who continue to diffuse, thank, appreciate for assistance provided. At the same time Twitter youth, the volunteer movement are posting receipts from their credit cards for Starlink subscription payments. Of course, not for thousands of terminals. I have family in telco there, and I agree, that the comments about 100x usage, are from back-linking cell towers via starlink. A hopefully temporary solution, till wire comms are restored.

So there is an incredible amount of noise, as most of UA people imagine billionaires diving into pools of gold every day, and have no idea what "cash poor" means, acting like 20M burn is nothing. At the same time US gov allocates and spends billions.
I can't imagine how frustrating it is to have to borrow against your assets to feed the burn because of a) bureaucracy b) politics/optics?

b) #Mary Led, GM subsidies/union considerations, not mentioning TSLA as the leader. This time it is not in TSLA's interest to stay away from politics.

So when you have to fund the right thing to do out of your pocket, loaning the shares, and get no acknowledgments or compensation for consumption, how frustrated would you be? Twitter is an exo-nervous system, a source of optimism, but also a source of venting, and noise ripples.

Huge thanks to this community for helping me to deal with the noise and see the big picture.
 
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At some point, when you’re working 24/7 and donating $70M to a country, you can get grumpy when they turn around and tell you to **** off. Elon has his limits and I’d probably tweet out something similar if I were in his shoes.
At some point the people being invaded, killed, tortured, kidnapped, and having their country be destroyed probably aren't interested in the feelings of the richest man in the world. His own ignorance is what generated the negative response he received. Elon is being a petty tool in his response and looking like the insensitive spoiled child many see him as. Completely tone deaf from the guy involved in a 40 billion dollar deal for Twitter to complain about the cost. Yes the US govt should cover the cost, get it done behind closed doors.
 
At some point the people being invaded, killed, tortured, kidnapped, and having their country be destroyed probably aren't interested in the feelings of the richest man in the world. His own ignorance is what generated the negative response he received. Elon is being a petty tool in his response and looking like the insensitive spoiled child many see him as. Completely tone deaf from the guy involved in a 40 billion dollar deal for Twitter to complain about the cost. Yes the US govt should cover the cost, get it done behind closed doors.
It appears as though they were trying to do it behind closed doors and the correspondence was leaked.
 
Well, if people didn't think that Elon was an arse before, they sure do now. Talk about running an effective clinic on "How to double-down and ruin whatever scrap of reputation and good will you have left in 3 easy steps.

1. Insult citizens of a country being illegally invaded while committing numerous war crimes by suggesting they give their land back to the invaders - because a long time ago different people lived there - demonstrating your own ignorance of the situation.
2. Double down on said insult by running Twitter polls to try to garner support for said actions and then suggesting that a vote be held (never mind that nearly all the people in the most heavily conflicted areas have already been kidnapped, killed, tortured or worse rendering the possibility of holding a fair vote in the near term impossible - again demonstrating further ignorance).
3. When people tell you you're ideas are somewhat ... lacking ... threaten to take your ball and go home because you got your feelings hurt.
You did forget the beginning of the story, where Elon and SpaceX jumped in as fast or faster than anybody else in the world with critical support to Ukraine. Instead of DoD or other government requisition processes to get critical communication infrastructure, the approval process was something like:
0: (tweet): SpaceX - please help with Starlink
(tweet response): On the way (pic of semi trailer filled with terminals)

0.5: Continue providing that service more donated than not. Yes there have been countries, including the US, pitching in and buying some of what is being provided. There is also clearly a significant cost to the service being provided by SpaceX.

Question: What other private company in the world has been willingly providing support paid for by its shareholders to Ukraine, in non-trivial amounts? Actually not only non-trivial cash support - unique capability that is easy to argue underpins how Ukraine is fighting the war? Even more pointedly - what other company in the world is EXPECTED to provide that support.

Anyway, ... for several months of war.

1: Insult citizens ...


I hadn't really read the request for DoD funding as a "take your ball and go home" demand in the absence of said funding. But I can also readily see how people would see it that way.

I do read it, as others have observed, as SpaceX seeing lots of private companies (by which I mean non-government entities; many are publicly traded) that are making plenty of money making and selling stuff to support the war effort. What other company in the world is provided, and EXPECTED to provide, significant support to the Ukraine war effort paid for by its owners / shareholders?

Its clear to me that Elon doesn't see this as an existential crisis to Ukraine the way that many others (most importantly Ukrainians) see this. For my own part I see this as comparable to the American Revolutionary War and what I learned in civics class "Give me liberty or give me death". Or "Live Free or Die" (New Hampshire state motto). It's an idea that resonates with many US citizens - its an idea that Elon appears to be tone deaf to (that has me crying inside more than a little).


My own position on all this - I hate the words. I rely on actions first, and words second. I'd like the two to be aligned - the actions speak volumes.


What is the minimum monthly charitable contribution Elon needs to make for you to not consider him price gouging people he is not asking any money from? Why is anything other than "completely free" or "at a great discount" price gouging? The Pentagon is spending $220 million per month on satellites. How can Elon asking for a tiny fraction of that amount to provide satellite internet coverage to a warn torn country be considered price gouging?

My thoughts exactly. And what other private (non-government) entity in the world is doing anything comparable? Probably NGO charities - I hadn't considered them and they are important. They also aren't running on the contributions by their owners / shareholders - they're running on voluntarily provided donations.
 
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I think my biggest problem here is Elon trying to say this is $10,000,000 a month. Most of the starlink terminals are being paid for. Only a percentage of them are provided free by SpaceX. The numbers quoted out there have SpaceX wanting to recoup $1000 or more a month PER TERMINAL. The reality is, these terminals are indeed heavily used, but that does not translate into a COST for SpaceX that high, or even close. It would be a stretch, but the $500 a month tier is the closest match..... and that of course has SpaceX earning a profit off of this situation. That being said, the Pentagon should just pay it.
 
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You did forget the beginning of the story, where Elon and SpaceX jumped in as fast or faster than anybody else in the world with critical support to Ukraine. Instead of DoD or other government requisition processes to get critical communication infrastructure, the approval process was something like:
0: (tweet): SpaceX - please help with Starlink
(tweet response): On the way (pic of semi trailer filled with terminals)

0.5: Continue providing that service more donated than not. Yes there have been countries, including the US, pitching in and buying some of what is being provided. There is also clearly a significant cost to the service being provided by SpaceX.

Question: What other private company in the world has been willingly providing support paid for by its shareholders to Ukraine, in non-trivial amounts? Actually not only non-trivial cash support - unique capability that is easy to argue underpins how Ukraine is fighting the war? Even more pointedly - what other company in the world is EXPECTED to provide that support.

Anyway, ... for several months of war.

1: Insult citizens ...


I hadn't really read the request for DoD funding as a "take your ball and go home" demand in the absence of said funding. But I can also readily see how people would see it that way.

I do read it, as others have observed, as SpaceX seeing lots of private companies (by which I mean non-government entities; many are publicly traded) that are making plenty of money making and selling stuff to support the war effort. What other company in the world is provided, and EXPECTED to provide, significant support to the Ukraine war effort paid for by its owners / shareholders?

Its clear to me that Elon doesn't see this as an existential crisis to Ukraine the way that many others (most importantly Ukrainians) see this. For my own part I see this as comparable to the American Revolutionary War and what I learned in civics class "Give me liberty or give me death". Or "Live Free or Die" (New Hampshire state motto). It's an idea that resonates with many US citizens - its an idea that Elon appears to be tone deaf to (that has me crying inside more than a little).


My own position on all this - I hate the words. I rely on actions first, and words second. I'd like the two to be aligned - the actions speak volumes.




My thoughts exactly. And what other private (non-government) entity in the world is doing anything comparable? Probably NGO charities - I hadn't considered them and they are important. They also aren't running on the contributions by their owners / shareholders - they're running on voluntarily provided donations.
Many NGOs receive government support, also.
 
I think my biggest problem here is Elon trying to say this is $10,000,000 a month. Most of the starlink terminals are being paid for. Only a percentage of them are provided free by SpaceX. The numbers quoted out there have SpaceX wanting to recoup $1000 or more a month PER TERMINAL. The reality is, these terminals are indeed heavily used, but that does not translate into a COST for SpaceX that high, or even close. It would be a stretch, but the $500 a month tier is the closest match..... and that of course has SpaceX earning a profit off of this situation. That being said, the Pentagon should just pay it.
BTW, don’t forget that a lot of Starlink terminals are being used for cellular backhaul so they eat a lot of bandwidth: in country, at the base stations, at the POPs, and Internet traffic. Elon generally does not lie/exaggerate about costs. I think we’ve got to take him at his word on how much it is costing SpaceX. Also bear in mind how expensive both Starlink launches are and Starship development is. SpaceX is hemorrhaging money right now and can’t afford the war expense on top of it.
 
Not really. Shooting down that many satellites (over 3000 now) would literally bankrupt Russia. Those are missiles that were JUST proven in the past 12-18 months, and they don't have a lot of them. Hitting a target moving at 17,500+ MPH at 300 miles above you is no easy feat.

Both China and Russia have been working on ground based anti-satellite lasers. Russia reportedly has a few anti-satellite laser systems. With a laser it's like shooting ducks and that's not considering how nicely lined up Starlink satellites are in low orbit. The idea is a soft kill versus hitting it with a projectile. It's much more expensive to build, launch, and control satellites.
 
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When it comes to the specific notion of being paid for keeping starlink going in the Ukraine, I'd contest:

1A. Sending terminals to Ukraine was extremely generous.
2A. Providing support to keep them up and safe from attacks is equally generous.

1B. Sending terminals to Ukraine was a PR boon for Starlink, and Elon was well aware of how his Court of Public Opinion would play the story out. No question more terminals have been sold and more countries became interested in Starlink as a result.
2B. Putting a beta level service in an extremely demanding environment is a great way to fast-track bugs/development. Certainly there would have been some problems identified/solved as part of the Ukraine grind that would have been identified/solved anyway--SX just got to them sooner. And certainly the solutions that were developed to harden service from attacks will result in a better and more salable product for many Starlink users moving forward....Some of the most profitable users being governments (and probably Russian Oligarchs) that are specifically interested in a robust connectivity link.


A non cynical thought experiment: Is it appropriate for The Man to subsidize a private company to strengthen their internal product to their financial benefit.
A cynical thought experiment: Has Elon hit the upside asymptote on 1B and 2B?
 
An extremely pro-Ukrainian channel on Elon Musk and Starlink:


About my attitude towards Elon Musk ... he's an entrepreneur and he's got his own private business so it's not obligatory for him to go on charity providing internet elsewhere and obviously they need money to pay bills and pay salaries. So I think it's usual for our modern day capitalistic world.

Still Starlink helped Ukraine a lot at the most critical time when Russia invaded Ukraine so it was critical in the spring and during the summertime. Now we still need it but it is less critical than what it was before.
 
Both China and Russia have been working on ground based anti-satellite lasers. Russia reportedly has a few anti-satellite laser systems. With a laser it's like shooting ducks and that's not considering how nicely lined up Starlink satellites are in low orbit. The idea is a soft kill versus hitting it with a projectile. It's much more expensive to build, launch, and control satellites.

Good luck with that. The US has by far the most advanced laser system, one actually being tested out on Arleigh-Burke class destroyers with the end goal of being part of missile defense, and it won't hit and take out satellites.

First there are atmospheric effects of firing a laser through the full thickness of the atmosphere which will cause degradation of the beam, and refraction. Second, the beam has to remain incredibly focused. Third, and probably the hardest, is realtime tracking of an object 300 miles away moving at 17,500+ MPH. Fourth, many surfaces of satellites are VERY reflective (they are made this way to keep temperatures in check - there is no "cooling effect" from wind outside of the atmosphere - this is why satellites are not black), meaning any beam that actually hits must be SUSTAINED and VERY intense.

Then there is the power required for something like this - we're talking megawatt level, sustained, power to do something like that.

The only "anti-satellite" lasers I have heard of are not designed to take down a satellite, but simply blind optical sensors (i.e. photographs):

No, despite what sci-fi television is telling you, we are not at that level of technology.
 
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Who said Elon Musk doesn't listen to customers?

"Elon Musk angered many on Twitter on Friday when he explained that in asking the Pentagon to foot the bill, he was simply following the advice of a Ukrainian diplomat, Andrij Melnyk."


 
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What does it really cost SpaceX to give users in Ukraine free service on Starlink? It's probably just bandwidth that would go unused otherwise. Sounds to me like Musk is just being an a-hole. Of course, as a private company and a private person, they're under no obligation to give anybody free service. But considering that Starlink probably has plenty of available bandwidth, and that Ukraine is fighting for its very life and the literal lives of its people against a genocidal mass-murderer, my opinion of Musk has gone from admiration to contempt.
 
Elon is our black swan event. Twitter has nothing to do with making EVs.

You want to give starlink to Ukraine, fine, but then don't go on Twitter giving your opinions on the war. It's neutral zone for you buddy.

I think shirts need to be made that say: STFU Elon.

I'm really beginning to be annoyed with his personality. I held him up in my mind for long, but his ego is getting the best of him.
 
Elon is our black swan event. Twitter has nothing to do with making EVs.

You want to give starlink to Ukraine, fine, but then don't go on Twitter giving your opinions on the war. It's neutral zone for you buddy.

I think shirts need to be made that say: STFU Elon.

I'm really beginning to be annoyed with his personality. I held him up in my mind for long, but his ego is getting the best of him.
I'll give you that this twitter deal has been annoying AF. However the Ukraine stuff is fine. People have tunnel vision and can lose sight of the bigger picture and I'm glad we have a figure like Elon looking out for the best interest of Earth at all time.

Since his antics, we see Putin being more dovish, possible negotiation set up in Turkey, and reminding Ukraine that support is finite and this is not some gladiator fight to the death with massive loss for earth.