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Elon Confirms that the FSD sneak peak is for car with HW3 only

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In my opinion, they should simply continue to test it in-house until it's really road-ready so as to not create another fiasco like which happened with all of the online Summon crashes. Putting it in the hands of everyday users, some of who will probably jump in the back seat and take naps "for Youtube clicks" is just asking for it IMHO.

“All of the online Summon crashes”? Huh?

I recall one video of a an accident which was caused by a different driver. There were lots of videos of it being confused, and that weird obviously staged one with a police officer, and some near-misses from people doing stupid things. But overall that launch seems to have gone surprisingly smoothly.
 
Has anybody considered that "sneak peak at FSD" being restricted to HW3 might mean that this release will be the cutover to native HW3 code? We know that HW3 is required for FSD, it's common belief that the current software is running in something akin to "HW 2.5 emulation mode" on 3.0. Even with no new capabilities the change in quality of experience could be a huge leap forward running in native 3.0 mode.
 
Has anybody considered that "sneak peak at FSD" being restricted to HW3 might mean that this release will be the cutover to native HW3 code? We know that HW3 is required for FSD, it's common belief that the current software is running in something akin to "HW 2.5 emulation mode" on 3.0. Even with no new capabilities the change in quality of experience could be a huge leap forward running in native 3.0 mode.
That would be nice!
 
I don't care what the "general Tesla owner population" thinks. This is all about fairness toward the early FSD buyers who spent thousands of dollars long ago based on Tesla's promises and have received nothing. If this sneak peek is a "bonus", they deserve to get it first.

I have genuine sympathy for the folks that paid early for FSD and still don't have the hardware to run it. That said, I don't understand the argument that those users still expect to get it first, regardless of what they feel they were promised. I believe there are some harsh realities that are being ignored;

  • Tesla is still barely hanging on by the skin of their teeth, as we can see from the quarter to quarter swings in their financials. Elon stated at the autonomy event that they're running profit neutral until the robo fleet is deployed.
  • It costs money to build and install HW3 in HW2.5 vehicles. I don't see how they have the money (or resources likely) to start a mass upgrade program right now, regardless of what people feel they were promised.
  • HW3 is required for FSD, no two ways around this.
  • In order to get the robo fleet deployed, FSD has to be in place so getting HW3 running as much of the FSD code as possible, as soon as possible, is critical to the company's survival IMO.
  • Given all this, I have to think they are VERY motivated to get as many HW3 cars out there and running native HW3 code, that's how they get to FSD, through the data that hundred of thousands of cars provide.
Would you rather Tesla is around to deliver on FSD or that they go out of business trying to upgrade 2.5 to 3.0?

Again, I understand people feel betrayed that they bought with the expectation of being the first owners of FSD cars, I happen to believe that Elon sincerely believed they would be at the time, and learned differently since. One thing we can all agree on, he's a very optimistic chap, especially when it comes to timelines :)
 
I have genuine sympathy for the folks that paid early for FSD and still don't have the hardware to run it. That said, I don't understand the argument that those users still expect to get it first, regardless of what they feel they were promised. I believe there are some harsh realities that are being ignored;

  • Tesla is still barely hanging on by the skin of their teeth, as we can see from the quarter to quarter swings in their financials. Elon stated at the autonomy event that they're running profit neutral until the robo fleet is deployed.
That is no excuse for taking people's money and not delivering what they paid for. And if you seriously believe they will have a "robo fleet" anytime soon I have a bridge to sell you.
  • It costs money to build and install HW3 in HW2.5 vehicles. I don't see how they have the money (or resources likely) to start a mass upgrade program right now, regardless of what people feel they were promised.
I find it amazing what kind of behavior by Tesla some people are willing to tolerate. If they don't have the money to do it, they shouldn't have promised it in the first place and taken people's money.
  • HW3 is required for FSD, no two ways around this.
  • In order to get the robo fleet deployed, FSD has to be in place so getting HW3 running as much of the FSD code as possible, as soon as possible, is critical to the company's survival IMO.
There is zero evidence that a user-accessible "sneak preview" will contribute anything to FSD development. We'll have to wait and see what it actually is, but I suspect it is primarily damage control marketing after having again missed a deadline (for "feature complete" FSD).
 
2020 Q1

Elon Musk on Twitter

FenlDri.jpg
 
And if you seriously believe they will have a "robo fleet" anytime soon I have a bridge to sell you.

It doesn't matter what you or I believe if that's what Elon/Tesla believe.

There is zero evidence that a user-accessible "sneak preview" will contribute anything to FSD development. We'll have to wait and see what it actually is, but I suspect it is primarily damage control marketing after having again missed a deadline (for "feature complete" FSD).

If you believe anything at all that Tesla says then surely you buy into the concept that their competitive advantage is the constant flow of data from the fleet running iterative software releases? If you no longer believe anything they say then there's really no reason for further discussion is there?
 
I’m assuming that the rules changed at some point and that some owners’ sales agreement state that they will have full functionality FSD by a certain date.

Nope.

Nobody was ever promised they'd have FSD fully operation by any specific date.... Elon has throw out a few aspiration dates but nothing that was ever part of a sales agreement.

My sales agreement didn’t say that it. It had a bunch of wording that essentially said that I’ll get it when it is both technologically available and approved by regulators. Those conditions haven’t been met yet.

Yup- same as Garners, and everyone elses.

This "class action lawsuit" stuff is nonsense from people who don't know how law or contracts work.

Now if there was evidence Tesla took the money with no intentional of actually ever developing or deploying the feature at all- THAT would be a lawsuit. But that's very clearly not the case. "taking longer than expected for something explicitly described as a FUTURE feature and which the sales agreement never set a target date for" does not the basis of a good lawsuit make.
 
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They make the chip in Texas I think. I’ll drive to Austin and see if mines ready!

kidding. I wish I had HW3 in mine, but at the same time the feature is being called a preview because it won’t be useful in the sense that auto steer is useful on the highways, it seems it is being released as a progress update to those who have invested in FSD and have the hardware that they’ve deemed necessary to make FSD a reality.

Hopefully we get a HW3.5 by the time I get mine haha
 

Tesla needs all the data... from everyone. Same hardware platform seems inevitable. Besides, this should help with Q4 results as a side (but he wouldn't mention that until Q4 earnings in Jan).

Our Model 3 literally rolled off the line on April 10th, 2018. At that time, HW3.0 did not yet exist. So I'm grateful just to get it at all... for FREE (FSD members). So hurry the f**k up, but understand ;)

Meanwhile, every other car company will discover a defect and wait until 900,000 vehicles are made with the same defect before they realize that the legal costs would be too high to continue... and then we hear about the recall 6 years later.

Contrast this with Tesla where both hardware and software updates are hassle free, before we even know we needed them. Same was true in early release days where seats, shocks, and glass had changed. They upgraded at no cost to you if you just said the word. (But I kept the tight suspension, glass, and low profile rear seat for the camping experience.) There were others I'm sure... remember the warped pillar panels? They replaced both but only 1 needed. WHO DOES THAT?

Nice to see FSD progress, can't wait to see all your sneaky videos! Be sure to show people's faces in awe as well. Play it up people!
 
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Found this clip on reddit with Eli Burton and Alex Guberman. Eli says that he has a friend in EA who got the FSD sneak preview. He describes it as "street level autopilot" and says it will "blow people's minds" in a couple weeks when videos come out.

FSD Sneak Preview is gonna " to blow people minds" - Reddit

It is second hand hearsay so who knows. But if true, it sounds like the FSD sneak preview could be AP3 specific code for the "automatic city driving" feature.
 
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