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Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

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By the way, the SAE actually discourages the use of the term "self-driving" or "full self-driving" because it is deemed too imprecise.
Looks like they wouldn't like Tesla's use of "autonomous" or "autonomy" either. :p

Will the FSD Computer make my car fully autonomous?
Not yet. … With the FSD Computer, we expect to achieve a new level of autonomy as we gain billions of miles of experience using our features.

Full Self-Driving Computer Installations
 
Looks like they wouldn't like Tesla's use of "autonomous" or "autonomy" either. :p

Will the FSD Computer make my car fully autonomous?
Not yet. … With the FSD Computer, we expect to achieve a new level of autonomy as we gain billions of miles of experience using our features.

Full Self-Driving Computer Installations

You are correct. They probably would not like Tesla's use of the term "autonomy" or "autonomous" either.

IMO, here's how Tesla should write that sentence based on SAE guidelines:

Will the FSD Computer enable fully automated driving?
Not yet. … With the FSD Computer, we expect to release more automated driving features as we gain billions of miles of experience using our features.
 
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You are correct. They probably would not like Tesla's use of the term "autonomy" or "autonomous" either.

IMO, here's how Tesla should write that sentence based on SAE guidelines:

Will the FSD Computer enable fully automated driving?
Not yet. … With the FSD Computer, we expect to release more automated driving features as we gain billions of miles of experience using our features.
Are those billions of millions collectively for all the Tesla's in the world or individual? If collectively we already have trillions of miles since the inception of this fancy word (I think during announcement of FSD computer on investors day). If individual cars then it's very clear that one needs to own several Tesla's and pay for vaporware FSD each time. :D
 
Are those billions of millions collectively for all the Tesla's in the world or individual? If collectively we already have trillions of miles since the inception of this fancy word (I think during announcement of FSD computer on investors day). If individual cars then it's very clear that one needs to own several Tesla's and pay for vaporware FSD each time. :D

I believe the billions of miles refers to all the miles of the fleet on AP. So it is collective, not individual. It's the total number of miles that all Teslas have driven on AP together.
 
Unfortunately, eating "Nerds" did work for me.

I like what u did there, that makes more sense than the miracle whip one. The miracle part is clearly talking about how miraculously good the Mayo tastes and in no way implies it would cause miracles to occur when you use it.

if we really want to gripe about misleading names let me tell you how disappointed I was the first time I went to a BJ’s lol.

i like the screen name by the way. Mike Tyson’s punch out was my favorite Nintendo game when I was a kid.
 
Strange, "Miracle Whip" has the word miracle in the name, yet I've never experienced any miracles during or after eating the condiment.

There is a real difference: An ordinary person would be expected to understand that the name "Miracle Whip" is not meant to imply an event involving divine intervention to alter the course of natural events. An ordinary person could be expected to understand that "Full Self-Driving" meant that the car did all the driving itself. And indeed, at the time I bought my Model 3 (with EAP but without FSD) Tesla promised that if I paid for FSD my car would, at some unspecified time in the future, do all the driving itself any time I wanted it to and any place I might otherwise have driven it.

The folks at Tesla seemed to believe they could achieve this, so they were not lying, strictly speaking. But at some point they recognized that a car that does all the driving itself would be further into the future than the cars built today could be expected to last, and rather than admitting this openly and compensating people who had paid for the promise of a car that does all the driving itself, they just quietly changed their promotional material to a much more modest set of features, which still do not exist.

To use the term "Full Self-Driving" now is frankly dishonest. That kind of thing is common enough in marketing, but still dishonest and I'd have expected better from Tesla.

And by any reasonable ethical standard, Tesla should offer a refund to people who paid for "FSD" while they were still promising a car that would do all the driving itself. Let the buyers decide whether they want to stay on the "FSD" track to receive whatever features Tesla can achieve, or get a refund and a downgrade to EAP or AP or (if physically possible) no autonomous features. It's the right thing to do. And I say this as someone unaffected by it because I never believed that real FSD would be available during the time I expected to own the car. EAP is still a bit shy of what was promised but I'm totally satisfied with it.
 
There is a real difference: An ordinary person would be expected to understand that the name "Miracle Whip" is not meant to imply an event involving divine intervention to alter the course of natural events.

Ok...


An ordinary person could be expected to understand that "Full Self-Driving" meant that the car did all the driving itself.

They really couldn't though, today- if they actually read what they are buying on the page where they select to purchase the option.


And indeed, at the time I bought my Model 3 (with EAP but without FSD) Tesla promised that if I paid for FSD my car would, at some unspecified time in the future, do all the driving itself any time I wanted it to and any place I might otherwise have driven it.

That's not entirely true.

It IS true that prior to March 2019 they made a much more expansive promise. And I'd expect anyone who bought before then to hold them to it- or expect some compensation eventually. But this no longer is relevant to anyone who has purchased FSD in over a year now since it's now an entirely different offering, with specifics given during the purchase process.

But even the older FSD didn't promise QUITE the L5 experience you suggest- it was clearly promising an L4 experience.

Specifically it promised enabling full self driving in "almost all circumstances"

That's L4. self-driving in all operational domains.

Vs L5 which is self driving in all circumstances.


The folks at Tesla seemed to believe they could achieve this, so they were not lying, strictly speaking. But at some point they recognized that a car that does all the driving itself would be further into the future than the cars built today could be expected to last, and rather than admitting this openly and compensating people who had paid for the promise of a car that does all the driving itself, they just quietly changed their promotional material to a much more modest set of features, which still do not exist.

This, also, is only partly true.

The first 90% is essentially what I said a while ago about why they changed the FSD offering- though it was in a bit more generous context, specifically that:

By making this change, they limit their financial liability if they CAN'T make L4 work. Only the pre-march-2019 buyers are owed essentially a full or near full refund. Anybody after that they can probably hit the much lower target, or at least owe a VASTLY smaller refund since they'll have delivered nearly all the features even if not the last one.


Which brings us to the last 10% of this paragraph of yours that is entirely incorrect.

New FSD promises 7 specific things.

6 of them exist and have already been delivered

Only 1 left. Formerly automatic driving on city streets- and now in V3 of FSD since about a month ago- "autosteer on city streets"




To use the term "Full Self-Driving" now is frankly dishonest.

It would be if they were still making the 2016-Feb 2019 promise about it.

But now they're promising 7 things, 6 of which exist and are being delivered today (to US cars anyway- the rest have 5/7 currently)

And they still hope to get #7 done- though it may never rise above an L2 feature.

And the purchase process tells you all that.



That kind of thing is common enough in marketing, but still dishonest and I'd have expected better from Tesla.

These are the same folks who for years have used two different measuring standards for their Performance and Non-Performance cars in order to make the gap between them (and thus the value in paying more for P) appear larger than it actually is.

That's something nobody else in the car industry is dishonest enough to do- and they've done it since at least the P85 Model S well before the 3 was even being sold.

And still do it today.


And by any reasonable ethical standard, Tesla should offer a refund to people who paid for "FSD" while they were still promising a car that would do all the driving itself. Let the buyers decide whether they want to stay on the "FSD" track to receive whatever features Tesla can achieve, or get a refund and a downgrade to EAP or AP or (if physically possible) no autonomous features. It's the right thing to do. And I say this as someone unaffected by it because I never believed that real FSD would be available during the time I expected to own the car.

Well, there's ethics, and there's the law.

Tesla, officially, still believes it'll get to what they promised the original FSD buyers. As long as they have a good faith belief in that they can hang on to the money (though not recognize it as revenue until they deliver on the promise).

We lack sufficient insight into the companies internal discussions to know if they "really" still think they can get there with the current sensor suite- maybe they still do and the FSD description change was for accounting and legal-insurance reasons just in case they turn out wrong.-- or maybe they don't believe anymore and it's an outright CYA because if/when they admitted they can't do it they know it'll be a huge hit to the company (and not just in refunds- but buyers and stock price too)

EAP is still a bit shy of what was promised but I'm totally satisfied with it.

To my knowledge, with the delivery of enhanced summon, EAP delivered every single feature it promised to deliver.

What do you think they didn't?
 
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They really couldn't though, today- if they actually read what they are buying on the page where they select to purchase the option.

True but how many people actually read what they are buying? Now, I grant you that is not Tesla's fault. But sadly, there are plenty of folks who don't read what they are buying. For example, I've literally seen new owners on this forum and are on the Model 3 Facebook page say things like "I just bought a Model 3. Here is a screenshot of my settings screen. How come I don't have Autopilot?" or "I just bought a Model 3. How I do activate full self-driving where I can take my hands off the wheel." or "I turned on AP but the car won't make turns on its own. I thought the car was full self-driving."

My point being that there are always going to be some people who just see the words "full self-driving" and assume it means that the car will completely drive itself.

But even the older FSD didn't promise QUITE the L5 experience you suggest- it was clearly promising an L4 experience.

Specifically it promised enabling full self driving in "almost all circumstances"

That's L4. self-driving in all operational domains.

Vs L5 which is self driving in all circumstances.

I applaud you for spotting this distinction in the FSD text on the website. But I doubt many people understood that they were only getting L4. I am sure you remember the big discussion we had after Autonomy Investor Day with several posters on this forum claiming that Elon was promising "L5 feature complete no geofence". It was a big controversy over whether Tesla was actually promising L5 or something else.
 
True but how many people actually read what they are buying? Now, I grant you that is not Tesla's fault.

And to me that's pretty much the end of the discussion.

I agree lots of folks simply don't bother to read or understand what they are buying- but that's on them.

I applaud you for spotting this distinction in the FSD text on the website. But I doubt many people understood that they were only getting L4. I am sure you remember the big discussion we had after Autonomy Investor Day with several posters on this forum claiming that Elon was promising "L5 feature complete no geofence". It was a big controversy over whether Tesla was actually promising L5 or something else.


Sure... now, there's a lot of open space on here on just how close they get to 5 while still being 4...(if they even get past L2 at all)- could be as little limitation as system will not self-drive in heavy snow or other zero visibility weather but otherwise does so everywhere.... could be as great as L4 only on controlled access divided freeways AND clear weather conditions and no other time.

Or could just be "Yeah, we can't do L4, here's your $3000 back..." or maybe something more controversial like "Here's $1000 back since we DID deliver SOME stuff beyond EAP like stoplights and L2 city driving and accepting the money means you waive the right to sue!"


Gimmie L3 highways and they can keep all my 3k, that'd be fine with me.
 
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What Tesla was saying when I bought my Model 3, was that (eventually) FSD would allow you to send the car off, without a driver, to fetch the kids from school or take them to soccer practice or whatever, and that you could (eventually) use it as a robotaxi. They were very clear that the car would not need a driver.

I will defer to anyone who tells me that this does not imply Level 5, and if I did say that Tesla was promising Level 5, I stand corrected. I thought this was the definition of Level 5 but I do not claim to fully understand the fine points of the definitions. What Tesla did promise was a car that could drive around the city without a human in the car.

And in my opinion it is unethical to use a name with a clear common meaning (such as "full self-driving") and then hedge in the fine print by clarifying that you don't really mean a car that fully drives itself, but rather a car that can perform a certain limited set of driver-aid tasks.

New FSD promises 7 specific things.

6 of them exist and have already been delivered

Only 1 left. Formerly automatic driving on city streets- and now in V3 of FSD since about a month ago- "autosteer on city streets"

Does FSD now have smart summon? (Finding you in a parking lot, including maneuvering around obstacles.)

An article from ZDNet from 6 days ago says that stoplight and stop-sign recognition and response is available only to beta testers. What's been the reliability on that so far? Promising to stop for stoplights, and then delivering something that works some of the time, is not, IMO, "delivering" on the promise. If it's really working, then that's fabulous!


From Tesla's web site:

The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous.

I guess we can agree to disagree but I don't feel that Tesla has delivered on its FSD promises when the features require constant driver supervision. Again, call it "Partial Self-Driving" and we're good. The word "Full" is a lie until you're at Level 4.
 
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Does FSD now have smart summon? (Finding you in a parking lot, including maneuvering around obstacles.)

Yes although it's usefulness is debatable. But Tesla did release the feature that basically does that.

An article from ZDNet from 6 days ago says that stoplight and stop-sign recognition and response is available only to beta testers. What's been the reliability on that so far? Promising to stop for stoplights, and then delivering something that works some of the time, is not, IMO, "delivering" on the promise. If it's really working, then that's fabulous!

That article is wrong. Traffic Light & Stop Sign Response has been released in the US to the entire fleet with FSD. Although, Tesla does label the feature as "beta" which may have confused the author of the article. If the author did not really do their homework, they may have assumed the feature was only for beta testers, unaware that Tesla releases "beta" features to everybody.

I can say from personal experience that the feature appears to be reliable. I've not had any big issues with it on my roads. It has stopped at stop signs every time. It has stopped every time for red lights and goes on green when I tap the stalk. It has correctly stopped when the light is yellow and turns red.

Occasionally, after stopping at a red light, it turns the wheel and tells me to take over. But then it resumes just fine when I tap the accelerator or hit the stalk. Not sure why it is telling me to take over. It could be the road is very bumpy, causing the steering wheel to turn when I stop which confuses AP. Also, AP does not respond well to cross traffic yet. Once I hit the stalk to go through green and then a car coming towards my direction at the intersection decided to turn left in front of me even though I had a green light. My car continued straight and then slammed on the brakes after the car had passed. So that issue is still there. So you definitely need to monitor traffic at intersections with the feature.

And yes, you need to hit the stalk or tap the accelerator to go through a green.

So it is definitely not a true FSD feature yet. it requires driver intervention and monitoring.

But Tesla can check that box that they did release the feature.
 
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^ Thanks for that information. That's great that they've gotten that more or less working. I find this encouraging.

One question for clarification: You say you have to tap the stalk or the accelerator to go through green. Is that any time you come to a green light, or just after stopping for a red light?

My EAP is still listed as a beta feature. That is not terribly encouraging, but maybe unimportant since it's also listed as Level 2. If they removed the beta designation but kept it Level 2 it wouldn't change anything.

Any feel for how long before FSD can navigate turns in the city?

And once it can do that, do you have any opinion on how long before it becomes Level 3 (driver attention not required)?
 
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One question for clarification: You say you have to tap the stalk or the accelerator to go through green. Is that any time you come to a green light, or just after stopping for a red light?

No, it is for all green lights. Basically, the feature will slow down and stop for all lights by default and you must confirm if you want to go through the light. So any time you approach any green light, you must either tap the stalk or tap the accelerator to confirm or the car will gradually slow down and stop. It is the one thing that is a bit annoying but I gather Tesla did it as a safety precaution to avoid running a red light if the color detection is wrong. That restriction should be lifted, I hope, once Tesla can validate that color detection is reliable enough.

Any feel for how long before FSD can navigate turns in the city?

Well, I think Tesla wants to release it before the end of this year. But you know how FSD timelines are. Tesla needs to finish this big FSD rewrite in order to release that feature. Personally, I suspect we might get some version of it by the end of this year but it will be probably require some type of confirmation at first. So I suspect it will be L2 if it is released this year.

And once it can do that, do you have any opinion on how long before it becomes Level 3 (driver attention not required)?

Keep in mind that L3 means that the driver does not need to pay attention in certain conditions but does need to take over when the car requests it.

Honestly, I don't think L3 is possible because L3 requires a reliable driver attention system which Tesla does not have. You need a camera facing the driver to monitor the driver attention to do L3 since the car needs to know when the driver is paying attention so it knows when it can turn control over to the driver. Imagine L3 asking the driver to take over when they can't. That would not be safe.

But keep in mind that Tesla has shown no interest in L3. Tesla wants to go straight to L4 which requires "solving FSD" and the car handling the fall-back. I think "solving FSD" is going to take Tesla longer than they think if it is even possible on the current hardware. I personally don't believe Tesla will have robotaxis next year as Elon claims. Tesla still has a lot to do even after they release "turning at intersections". That is only the beginning of FSD, not the end. But "turning at intersections" will mean a sorta "feature complete" L2 where the driver still needs to pay attention but the car can follow a route without the driver needing to actively steer the car.
 
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Thanks for all that!

So, the car cannot distinguish between a green light and a red light. It just knows that there's a light and it will stop unless/until the driver says go. That's not encouraging.

I get what you're saying about L3. It's been discussed before, and I'm not sure which way I lean on that. But if city Nav on AP at Level 2 is what they consider feature-complete FSD, let's just say I'm not impressed. I won't be paying for what you describe above. But then, EAP works fine on what passes for highways here, and I don't have much city driving. Pretty much everything in Kihei is a few blocks off the highway, and both Wailuku and Kahului are small.

The thing for me (and I've mentioned this before) is that turning at intersections is a small enough part of my driving that it's not worth $7,000. The thing that would be worth $7,000 to me is not having to be alert to the road and surroundings. If I could just lean back in the seat and close my eyes or stare up at the clouds through the glass roof, that would be worth it even if the car shouted at me a couple of minutes before I needed to turn. IOW, the features I have now, but at Level 3 or above.

Correct me if I'm wrong (I suppose I am):

Level 3: I have to be in the driver's seat and awake but I need not pay attention. The car will alert me with a reasonable amount of time (at least half a minute) when I need to take over.

Level 4: I can take a nap in the back seat. The car will pull over safely and stop in a safe place and wake me up if I need to take over.

Of course, what I'd really like is a car that does what a chauffeur would: Take me where I want to go and wake me when we get there.
 
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What Tesla was saying when I bought my Model 3, was that (eventually) FSD would allow you to send the car off, without a driver, to fetch the kids from school or take them to soccer practice or whatever, and that you could (eventually) use it as a robotaxi. They were very clear that the car would not need a driver.


Here's what they promised for FSD prior to March 2019- It's clearly level 4 (note the "almost all circumstances" limitation) and it says it requires a driver (note the "all you will need to do is get in" requirement listed).


fsdprom.png




Does FSD now have smart summon? (Finding you in a parking lot, including maneuvering around obstacles.)


...ish?

It only works to a distance of about 200 feet. It's a neat party trick. And if I am lucky enough to get a VERY close parking spot at work then I manage to be JUST inside the range to use it and summon it to the covered area in front of the front door so I can get in dry when it's raining- but otherwise it's not super useful.


(same feature is available to folks who got EAP back when that was a thing)
 
Honestly, I don't think L3 is possible because L3 requires a reliable driver attention system which Tesla does not have. You need a camera facing the driver to monitor the driver attention to do L3 since the car needs to know when the driver is paying attention so it knows when it can turn control over to the driver. Imagine L3 asking the driver to take over when they can't. That would not be safe.

The current L2 system has even more immediate needs for the driver to take over and has no camera-based driver monitoring.

L3 specifically does NOT require the driver to be paying attention to the road at all

He just has to be conscious and able to take over eventually (rather than immediately on an L2 situation where he's technically the one actually driving all the time).


So L3 I can be reading a book while the car drives, and if it beeps at me appropriately I can put down my book and prepare to take over. L3 does not require me to be paying attention, at all, to the driving task- just that I be available to take over eventually.