Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[electronblue]

All the jest aside, I am actually really looking forward to seeing the NoA without confirmations in action though. That is seriously a next level play in the ballsiness of the driver responsible but car drives scenario. Would seem to be totally different from just monitoring a car staying in-lane, same with Advanced Summon.

Will be interesting times, so hopefully the delay is not long now for either.

 

[Bladerskb]

Well technically he is not saying that. He is saying 10 million miles after the system is deemed safe, not 10 million miles from that point of time 6 months ago.

So, basically, never...

Then he would have responded to the questions about his tweet, even by fred himself. He didn't which means that was his timeline.

Uh. He said "10 million miles or so". You are forgetting the "or so" part which grammatically means that the "10 million miles" is vague. It could be 10 million miles or more. So Musk never said that they would remove confirmation when they hit exactly 10 million miles and not a single mile more.

Its 100% lie and fraudulent. This is what Elon does, he gives a statement to give the impression that something will happen when it won't, while leaving a vague word in there for plausible deniability to be implored by his fans like you. this is his MO. He has done it hundreds of times, which leads to hundreds of articles consisting of millions of free views. Which was his exact purpose, to mislead. yet you continue to defend and deflect for him.

He's literally has a pending court contempt charge for this exact same reason. He gives statements that alludes something that isn't so he can garner hype.

 

[electronblue]

Yes, actually, your reading was correct. Musk was saying that after 10 million miles or so, when it was deemed safe to do so, they would remove the stalk confirmation. And that is exactly what Tesla is doing. So, again, Musk has been plenty wrong in a lot of tweets but there is nothing wrong with this particular tweet.

I didn’t see anything particularly wrong about it either though I actually doubt the 10M miles number for confirmation but that’s a different story.

 

[electronblue]

@Bladerskb It does ring true that Elon seems to give vague timelines and promises he knows or at least should know are very open to positive misinterpretation. The theory that Tesla’s comms relies on this positive misinterpretation to an extent is not an implausible one.

 

[electronblue]

It is a bit like the question that why media always makes mistakes with Trump that turn out negative for Trump (think of what you will of him, I doubt anyone really disagrees with this deep-down... any retractions are terribly one-sided).

Why does Elon always make mistakes that ended up looking positive for Tesla? Can anyone recall Elon being wrong in a way that made Tesla look bad? At some point you just have to consider the possibility that things aren’t quite even...

Where is that story about NoA coming out in 6 months and then it came out in 6 weeks instead? Seems the only time this happens is when there is a new product to sell but that again looks good for Tesla (avoiding the Osborne effect)...

 

[diplomat33]

All the jest aside, I am actually really looking forward to seeing the NoA without confirmations in action though. That is seriously a next level play in the ballsiness of the driver responsible but car drives scenario. Would seem to be totally different from just monitoring a car staying in-lane, same with Advanced Summon.

Will be interesting times, so hopefully the delay is not long now for either.

Yes, I am very very interested in seeing NOA with no confirmation. And I am fine with Tesla taking their time to get it right because it is a really big step forward that needs to work right.

 

[diamond.g]

Then he would have responded to the questions about his tweet, even by fred himself. He didn't which means that was his timeline.



Its 100% lie and fraudulent. This is what Elon does, he gives a statement to give the impression that something will happen when it won't, while leaving a vague word in there for plausible deniability to be implored by his fans like you. this is his MO. He has done it hundreds of times, which leads to hundreds of articles consisting of millions of free views. Which was his exact purpose, to mislead. yet you continue to defend and deflect for him.

He's literally has a pending court contempt charge for this exact same reason. He gives statements that alludes something that isn't so he can garner hype.

Do you think Elon gets approval for these tweets? Pondering over under on SEC using such tweets in their contempt charge/call. From what you say seems like a slam dunk, unless we are considering this stuff immaterial.

 

[boonedocks]

If Tesla's CET doesn't really have a clue how long something is going to take, and this is a perfect example, he either should:

1: Not reply at all about
2: Simply say "there is no time frame now as it based on safety and we really have no idea how long it will before there is a safety level for release.

If Elon would just be honest and not set any expectation that any reasonable person would read as an expectation then we wouldn't need pages and pages debating how a tweet should be read. The fact is Elon has put himself and Tesla in a position to accept his tweets as meaningless now. Every time he tweets something the Elonites come together to say "he didn't mean it that way" "you are reading it wrong" "the number of miles is wrong" "the number days was an estimate" and on and on and on and on....Geeze just tweet what you know to be the truth and real or don't tweet.

Continuing to set false expectations is on Elon not on how we the customer have to read INTO them.

 

[mongo]

Unless you been a software engineer for several large and small companies then you don't plain and simple.

Is that a sentence?
I have been a software/ hardware guy for several companies of various sizes, including those that supply to Tesla...

Mobileye has nothing to do with any elon timeline. AP2 development began sometime in 2015.

So, even though Tesla was working on a version of AP2 that included ME, at the time of the quotes you provided, Tesla should have kept those timings even though ME stopped working with them? Again, the split happened ~ July 2016...

Please pay no attention to the Historical revisionism;

1. December 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."
2. January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"
3. June 2016: "I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year," Musk said.

Yeah, something shifted in Musk around new year 2016. Realistically, what shifted is that AP2 launch was inching closer and Elon was starting the process of hyping it all up... At that time it was still supposed to be together with MobilEye...

Realistically, the hardware/ development path Tesla was planning on got axed by the ME split.

But luckily for this rhetoric there is another better defence in my post #675.

OY! don't be skipping my post #669

 

[BigD0g]

Realistically, the hardware/ development path Tesla was planning on got axed by the ME split.

Yah, but they never changed the estimate, they said it would have no impact even after the split! In fact, I believe they even said it was us that left them not vice versa. And let's not even talk about the debacle that was the original April release back in 2017, what a joke.

 

[Bladerskb]

Is that a sentence?
I have been a software/ hardware guy for several companies of various sizes, including those that supply to Tesla...

That means absolutely nothing. I'm talking about software engineer, not a "software guy".

 

[Bladerskb]

So, even though Tesla was working on a version of AP2 that included ME, at the time of the quotes you provided, Tesla should have kept those timings even though ME stopped working with them? Again, the split happened ~ July 2016...

Tesla's AP promises that they were sued for and settled came well after the Mobileye brake up. Did Mobileye's amnon shashua put elon at gun point in October 2016 when he said that AP1 parity will be here Dec 2016 and EAP thereafter? And that in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely from Jan 2017 they will have full self driving features? Or that you will be able to sleep in your Tesla two years from April 2017? I could go on and on but it doesn't matter because you will find a way to deflect blame from your demi-gawd elon.

 

[BinaryField]

I didn’t see anything particularly wrong about it either though I actually doubt the 10M miles number for confirmation but that’s a different story.

The tweet in question is misleading at best. He portrays remaining work as if it is a validation problem via large data collection. It clearly isn't. For one thing, how do you validate a system that you know does not work in its operational environment? If any of the engineers behind the scenes are truly trying to validate in this manner any of the past releases of Navigate on Autopilot, they should never be allowed to work in this field again. In reality, all of this is just Elon's BS and probably has nothing to do with engineering.

 

[Kant.Ing]

The truth is that 10M means 10 Milliard. In American English, 10 Milliard is 10 Billion!

 

[J1mbo]

The truth is that 10M means 10 Milliard. In American English, 10 Milliard is 10 Billion!

It's as good an explaination as any other in this thread!

Frankly, no one knows the context. I assumed he meant the miles are NoA miles. NoA is only available in the US on specific roads (so probably more than 3 days).

 

[diplomat33]

If Elon would just be honest and not set any expectation that any reasonable person would read as an expectation then we wouldn't need pages and pages debating how a tweet should be read.
....
Continuing to set false expectations is on Elon not on how we the customer have to read INTO them.

On this, we agree. Musk should just say "Tesla will remove the confirmation from NOA when we deem it safe enough to do but I can't comment on a timeline for that" or "the Tesla team is working hard on FSD features. We will announce specific features when we are ready." Sure those would be pretty boring responses but at least they would be safer and avoid any misunderstandings.

 

[iTech]

It's become obvious that when Elon sets a date for release, the release is actually them deploying it to a few cars and testing. So while not incorrect, it's heavily misleading (but that's most of his tweets).

 

[lunitiks]

The truth is that 10M means 10 Milliard. In American English, 10 Milliard is 10 Billion!

Or.. OR: He's talking about the amount of miles YOUR car has to drive. Yes that must be it

 

[boonedocks]

It's become obvious that when Elon sets a date for release, the release is actually them deploying it to a few cars and testing. So while not incorrect, it's heavily misleading (but that's most of his tweets).

Still not Okay. If it is in testing it isn’t released. Geeze Louise.....what we get in the end is labeled as “BETA” so those “few cars” don’t constitute a release in our world at all.

 

[Bladerskb]

For (1), I don’t think Nvidia’s vehicle would qualify. For (2), maybe, but I’m skeptical. For instance, how does it do on crowded streets in a city? How does it handle rare edge cases on the highway?

We have trillions of miles of equivalent corner cases of collisions and near collisions on youtube and /r/roadcam that can be extracted and played over in simulation. Any company not making use of that would be stupid. In addition, corner cases can be simulated not only on the computer but on test tracks.

Bladerskb, is your belief that Mobileye will solve full autonomy with a little bit of imitation learning (under 10 million miles of manual driving data) and mostly reinforcement learning in simulation?

If that is your belief, do you think Mobileye will solve full autonomy before Waymo?

I don't hold either beliefs, other than the fact that autonomy wouldn't be solved by throwing alot of data at a neural network and then after a few weeks/months of development/training, comes out a human level NN driver.

NN using GPU made its introduction in 2012 and gave us a leap in perception as a whole (which google's sdc was the first to make use of it) but still didn't solve perception. It has taken almost a decade of NN advancement/research to get to where we are in perception and in computer vision and yet perception is only solved by having multiple layers of redundancy.

You think we haven't made an advancement in 15 years but we have made an unimaginable amount of advancements.

So, what is Mobileye’s advantage?
I’m wondering what your theory is here.

The difference between Mobileye and the rest of the industry is that since 2015 Mobileye has embarked on one goal and that is to use deep RL to solve self driving. Others are now in 2018/2019 contemplating and researching plugging in some RL into their planning software. But for mobileye this is their only part. Their 100% focus. This isn't research for them.

Lastly they have an advantage because their entire stack is very cheap unlike the rest of the industry. Their entire sensor suite cost below $2k and they are the only one with crowdsourced HD map at scale.

You believe that Tesla have had an insurmountable lead since 2017 and i believe based on factual evidence that
Mobileye will overtake Waymo by the end of the year.

I guess we will see in the coming months.

It’s not compute — Google has more.

Intel owns mobileye