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Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"
- Thread starter dckiwi
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes - but I've not seen anyone post about it after March. I don't have it in my car - so wondering whether they pulled it.
copyhacker
Member
I’ve managed to trigger it twice. Once on purpose and once by accident (so it did its job). The second time was definitely later than March. It’s there, just doesn’t identify every instance correctly.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Does it visualize the stop sign - atleast once in a while ? Not in my case ...
Wild guess, @verygreen had to flip a bit to get the display to appear. Or it was hot-fixed to supress.
Preparing to be corrected....
Preparing to be corrected....
copyhacker
Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
To bring this topic to a close
- Show traffic light visualization <- this worked only when hacked by verygreen
- Warn if we don't stop at red traffic light when on AP <- I've never tried this
It's definitely not going to do that in the next couple of years.
This is not what Musk said at the Autonomy Day
Colin Langan from UBS: It sounds like what you’re talking about is Level 5, no geofence. Is that what you’re expecting by the end of the year?
Elon: Yes.
[Source: 3:31:40 on the Tesla livestream]
So, Elon answered a simple, clear "yes" to a question asking if Tesla would have "Level 5, no geofence" by the end of the year. Not "feature complete" or similar. Level 5.
I'm not saying they will, just pointing out that Elon was very clear that L5 was 2019, not just "feature complete" in 2019.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
It can definitely do it (find you anywhere in the parking lot) - in some parking lots. The question is whether those are the 90% of parking lots or 10%.
@Elon pretty much said it means flat, rectangular grid, regular California parking lots. 10% will be generous. However, the whole point of focusing on parking lots/summon is to teach the ML to do more-or-less general driving, i.e., all kinds of complicated obstacle avoidance and driveable space identification in the presence of arrows, signs, etc. For that, Tesla needs us to help train in all kinds of crazy conditions. It is baby steps for generalized local driving. That seems like a pretty good strategy. I don't think anybody is really looking for a feature that will call your car over from 100' away in visual sight! That part is just a toy.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
A lot of keystrokes have already been devoted to this in this thread. Your interpretation is not the only possible interpretation. He was probably thinking about "no geofencing" when he said yes. This is something he has said often, instead of L5, which he has actually never talked about explicitly at any length.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Flat, rectangular parking lots are the norm (atleast in suburbs). So 10% doesn't look like generous.
I'm not sure how much of NN they are really using for summon. It is possible they first started assuming they don't need anymore information than what they get from NN - and intended summon to be just procedural code. Then they found out it doesn't work - and are now doing the hard work of figuring out what other information from NN they need and training NN to get that information. This is why it is taking much longer.
Ofcourse parking lots have the problem of not having routes defined the way generic map based navigation already has.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
No. Elon did not say that! You are taking it out of context. Go back to earlier in his presentation. Elon says robotaxis will roll out next year in 2020. He is also asked about geofencing and Elon basically says no geofencing for Tesla. Elon even says that if you do geofencing, it's not real full self-driving. So the question about L5 nogeofence at the end of the year is at the end of next year 2020. That is what Elon is saying yes to. Earlier in the presentation, Elon specifically says robotaxis will not be geofenced and will be deployed in 2020!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
If you explain how to do that - I'm sure they will do that "backport"
Where do I sign up?
If they're that inept, that they can't generate NN for AP 2.5 anymore, then I don't have much hope for anything remotely resembling FSD.
A couple of points to address here. First, somewhere in the prior 96 pages this has probably been addressed, but I'll post it again as a reminder:
Level 0 _ No Automation
Level 1 _ Driver Assistance: Under certain conditions, the car controls either the steering or the vehicle speed, but not both simultaneously
Level 2 _ Partial Automation: The car can steer, accelerate, and brake in certain circumstances.
Level 3 _ Conditional Automation: In the right conditions, the car can manage most aspects of driving, including monitoring the environment. The system prompts the driver to intervene when it encounters a scenario it can’t navigate.
Level 4 _ High Automation: The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area.
Level 5 _ Full Automation: The driverless car can operate on any road and in any conditions a human driver could negotiate.
I have to vehicles which have Level 2 functionality, a 2017 Acura MDX, and a 2019 Tesla Model 3. On paper, these vehicles do the same thing. They can break and accelerate, they can steer the car around corners on the highway. On paper, they have the same functionality. In the real world, they are light years apart. It's like comparing an iPhone Xs to a prepaid Android phone from Walmart.
I just completed a 2,000 mile road trip in the Model 3. The car drove 90% with supervision. "In the right conditions, the car can manage most aspects of driving, including monitoring the environment. The system prompts the driver to intervene when it encounters a scenario it can’t navigate." WIth Navigate on Autopilot, the Model 3 is Level ~2.9 autonomous on the highway. Add in city driving, and we are a firm 3. By comparison, the Acura is a mediocre Level 1.5 (and all it will ever be).
Elon wants to get to Level 5, and yes, he has said that by inferring robo taxis, as that would be required to operate without human oversight.
The debate is about the definition of FSD. Is it level 3, 4, or 5? What were we sold? Well, that answer is "Well, it depends"... Are you driving a couple year old Model S or a 2019 Model 3? 8 cameras or 1? 2.5 HW or 3.0 HW? Because right now, here today, there is a world of difference between the sold features with the same name... EAP on a couple year old Model S is nowhere the reliability of a new Model 3...
On my recent trip, it was very predictable what the car could handle and what it couldn't. Dedicated turn lane on the right? Yep, that will trip it up everytime. Slight wag of a semi trailer in the adjacent lane? Yep, it'll pump the breaks like a beaten dog... That's it... Literally 2,000 and that is it... Navigating interchanges in the central California- check, passing cars automatically- check, stop and go traffic- check, mountain driving up and over Donner Summit- check, curvy sections of highway 95 in Oregon- perfectly. Highway EAP on this car is efing amazing. If Elon gets the level of city FSD to the present highway EAP, I'll be perfectly happy with my extra cash outlay. And if he reaches his goal of Level 5, even more so...
Level 0 _ No Automation
Level 1 _ Driver Assistance: Under certain conditions, the car controls either the steering or the vehicle speed, but not both simultaneously
Level 2 _ Partial Automation: The car can steer, accelerate, and brake in certain circumstances.
Level 3 _ Conditional Automation: In the right conditions, the car can manage most aspects of driving, including monitoring the environment. The system prompts the driver to intervene when it encounters a scenario it can’t navigate.
Level 4 _ High Automation: The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area.
Level 5 _ Full Automation: The driverless car can operate on any road and in any conditions a human driver could negotiate.
I have to vehicles which have Level 2 functionality, a 2017 Acura MDX, and a 2019 Tesla Model 3. On paper, these vehicles do the same thing. They can break and accelerate, they can steer the car around corners on the highway. On paper, they have the same functionality. In the real world, they are light years apart. It's like comparing an iPhone Xs to a prepaid Android phone from Walmart.
I just completed a 2,000 mile road trip in the Model 3. The car drove 90% with supervision. "In the right conditions, the car can manage most aspects of driving, including monitoring the environment. The system prompts the driver to intervene when it encounters a scenario it can’t navigate." WIth Navigate on Autopilot, the Model 3 is Level ~2.9 autonomous on the highway. Add in city driving, and we are a firm 3. By comparison, the Acura is a mediocre Level 1.5 (and all it will ever be).
Elon wants to get to Level 5, and yes, he has said that by inferring robo taxis, as that would be required to operate without human oversight.
The debate is about the definition of FSD. Is it level 3, 4, or 5? What were we sold? Well, that answer is "Well, it depends"... Are you driving a couple year old Model S or a 2019 Model 3? 8 cameras or 1? 2.5 HW or 3.0 HW? Because right now, here today, there is a world of difference between the sold features with the same name... EAP on a couple year old Model S is nowhere the reliability of a new Model 3...
On my recent trip, it was very predictable what the car could handle and what it couldn't. Dedicated turn lane on the right? Yep, that will trip it up everytime. Slight wag of a semi trailer in the adjacent lane? Yep, it'll pump the breaks like a beaten dog... That's it... Literally 2,000 and that is it... Navigating interchanges in the central California- check, passing cars automatically- check, stop and go traffic- check, mountain driving up and over Donner Summit- check, curvy sections of highway 95 in Oregon- perfectly. Highway EAP on this car is efing amazing. If Elon gets the level of city FSD to the present highway EAP, I'll be perfectly happy with my extra cash outlay. And if he reaches his goal of Level 5, even more so...
Assuming this car is offered for sale to the public, and not just three units deployed somewhere and held by Tesla or a selected operator, as a way to keep the promise to the letter while breaking it in spirit, I will buy one absolutely as soon as I can even if I have to pay $100K for it. I will not use it as a taxi. I will just let it drive me where I want to go. Or if it's offered as an upgrade in the FSD package or a new, more expensive Robotaxi package, I'll buy the upgrade.
But I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that if Tesla brings out a "robotaxi" in 2020 it will be a limited service offered by Tesla (not for sale to the public) and will continue to have a safety driver in every taxi.
Question 1: Who thinks that Tesla will sell driverless cars by 2020? (L5)
Question 2: Who thinks that Tesla will put robotaxis on the streets without safety drivers? (L5)
Question 3: Who thinks that Tesla will put a few of its most advanced "FSD" cars on the streets, driving mostly autonomously, but with a safety driver? (L2)
I'll bet on #3: Very good Level 2 cars with safety drivers operating as taxis, that mostly drive themselves but still require a fully-alert driver.
I'd bet $1,000 that #1 will not happen before the end of 2020. And I'd be overjoyed if I lost that bet.
P.S. If Tesla manages #1 above: Offer a truly driverless, not geofenced, car for sale to the public in 2020 they'll have so many orders it will take a decade to fill them all. They'll sell so many cars their stock will go up tenfold.
Sadly, I don't believe it will happen. They'll find some way to say "That's not what we really promised, we really just promised to put one robotaxi with a safety driver into service.")
Sadly, I don't believe it will happen. They'll find some way to say "That's not what we really promised, we really just promised to put one robotaxi with a safety driver into service.")
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