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Elon: FSD Beta tweets

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
6,852
9,731
San Diego
The way accidents per mile is calculated is fraught with issues. If you think Waymo is in more accidents than average driver then examine your sources. For example are statistics based on serious accidents, accidents reported to the police, accidents where driver is at fault? May find it hard to correlate with the Waymo data.


You might be surprised how sophisticated the 30 billion miles of simulated driving is.
Almost all of Waymo's data is with a safety driver and it shows that the safety drivers were able to prevent 29 collisions that would have occurred had the system been operating without them (there were 18 actual collisions in 6.1 millions miles). I admit it does seem likely that a heavily monitored Waymo employee is better than the average driver.

The number I've heard is 1 collision per 150k miles and Waymo is worse than that. I also see that there were 8 collisions that resulted in air bag deployments in 6.1 million miles which is worse than Tesla's numbers (though I think Waymo is including the other vehicles involved in the collision). I also wonder if Chandler, AZ might have a lower accident rate than average? Of course getting rear ended is much better than many other types of collisions and that should factor in to safety calculations. I agree that it's hard to correlate.

I'm not a big believer in simulations for predicting severe accident rate.
Anyway, I do think it's plausible that Waymo is safer than the average human but it doesn't seem conclusive to me.
 

qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
3,426
2,437
VB
Sorry…did I miss the line in the Tesla beta agreement that says, “You, the tester, are irrelevant to this beta FSD functionality. Feel free to lie back and watch Netflix while your car whirs you away from Irvine to LAX”

nope... but then again If the car made it there without interventions I don’t see how you could say it wasn’t doing it autonomously.... the fact that a driver is there didn’t effect the outcome.... now, personally, I think we are a way away from a zero intervention drive from Irvine to lax, but the point still stands...
 

ammulder

3P, X ordered
Supporting Member
Apr 11, 2019
1,126
3,809
Philly area
I hope Tesla will rapidly improve FSD Beta 9+ to the point of a wide rollout. I’m not convinced Tesla robotaxis are coming in the near future, but I’ll be happy for now with a solid supervised FSD on rural roads and highways (I barely ever drive in the city).

All that said, I think it’s really important to have Waymo and MobileEye at work. Big big picture, if it were to turn out there are just too many edge cases for Tesla to solve, we need a Plan B. If it turns out that only geofencing produces robotaxis, then I will hope they geofence my area eventually. Or, if MobileEye has breakthroughs that give them a big edge, at least Tesla can learn about it at AI conferences or hire some folks away. I’m definitely not prepared to say everybody but Tesla might as well just stop working on it.

It would be really nice to see biweekly FSD updates with notable improvements now that v9 is out, though. Fingers crossed!
 

kaffine

Member
Apr 1, 2016
286
259
Las Vegas
Tesla doesn't even use FSD on their loop transport system. This is a closed track design specifically for Tesla cars to drive through and they still have humans doing 100% of the driving no FSD features are being used at all. There are no other vehicles no pedestrians on a short enclosed track and yet they still can't get FSD to work.

I don't like needing HD maps as I don't see it as a sustainable for anything other than major cities.
 

qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
3,426
2,437
VB
Tesla doesn't even use FSD on their loop transport system. This is a closed track design specifically for Tesla cars to drive through and they still have humans doing 100% of the driving no FSD features are being used at all. There are no other vehicles no pedestrians on a short enclosed track and yet they still can't get FSD to work.

I don't like needing HD maps as I don't see it as a sustainable for anything other than major cities.

im pretty sure they still use the lane keeping feature... but I agree with your major point.
 

RDoc

S85D
Aug 24, 2012
2,753
1,611
Boston North Shore
Tesla doesn't even use FSD on their loop transport system. This is a closed track design specifically for Tesla cars to drive through and they still have humans doing 100% of the driving no FSD features are being used at all. There are no other vehicles no pedestrians on a short enclosed track and yet they still can't get FSD to work.

I don't like needing HD maps as I don't see it as a sustainable for anything other than major cities.
I'm no fan of FSD, however the current Loop system is really more a proof of concept and preliminary trial than even a beta system. IMHO TBC is mainly interested in the tunnel and practicality of operating a system. Clearly they're going to need to go to automated driving and much larger specialized vehicles if Loop is going to be a serious system.
 

Ptheven

Member
Mar 9, 2019
197
270
Kellyfornya
I hope Tesla will rapidly improve FSD Beta 9+ to the point of a wide rollout. I’m not convinced Tesla robotaxis are coming in the near future, but I’ll be happy for now with a solid supervised FSD on rural roads and highways (I barely ever drive in the city).
Shame there has been no improvement of note on highway features for 2 years or so.
 
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diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
8,168
9,716
Terre Haute, IN USA
People are dumb and lack basic reading comprehension skills. Despite it being quite clear what they were buying they remain convinced they were tricked.

It’s ashame people can’t read....

The reason people feel tricked is because Elon repeatedly said that our cars would be fully self-driving going all the way back to 2016.

Elon in Oct 2016 promoting AP2 with the 2016 video of a Model X doing a route with no interventions.


Elon on a press call in 2017:

E6dgZ0CWUAM267G


Is it really that hard to imagine that people might have read this and thought that our cars would be fully self-driving by 2018? Is it really that surprising that some people might feel tricked when the CEO was saying this back in 2016 and 2017 and our cars are still not fully self-driving in 2021?

Hind sight is 20/20. It's easy now to point to the legal disclaimer and argue that people should have known better. But back in 2016 or 2017, we didn't know that FSD would still be beta in 2021. At the time, the CEO was repeatedly claiming our cars would be fully self-driving by 2018. You can't really fault people for thinking that our cars would be fully self-driving by now.
 

Dan D.

Member
Dec 7, 2020
666
740
Vancouver, BC
The reason people feel tricked is because Elon repeatedly said that our cars would be fully self-driving going all the way back to 2016.

Elon in Oct 2016 promoting AP2 with the 2016 video of a Model X doing a route with no interventions.


Elon on a press call in 2017:

E6dgZ0CWUAM267G


Is it really that hard to imagine that people might have read this and thought that our cars would be fully self-driving by 2018? Is it really that surprising that some people might feel tricked when the CEO was saying this back in 2016 and 2017 and our cars are still not fully self-driving in 2021?

Hind sight is 20/20. It's easy now to point to the legal disclaimer and argue that people should have known better. But back in 2016 or 2017, we didn't know that FSD would still be beta in 2021. At the time, the CEO was repeatedly claiming our cars would be fully self-driving by 2018. You can't really fault people for thinking that our cars would be fully self-driving by now.
As the saying goes "fool us 150 times, shame on..."?

Name any other company CEO that is so misleading with his certainty, time and again, for years and years?
 

qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
3,426
2,437
VB
The reason people feel tricked is because Elon repeatedly said that our cars would be fully self-driving going all the way back to 2016.

Elon in Oct 2016 promoting AP2 with the 2016 video of a Model X doing a route with no interventions.


Elon on a press call in 2017:

E6dgZ0CWUAM267G


Is it really that hard to imagine that people might have read this and thought that our cars would be fully self-driving by 2018? Is it really that surprising that some people might feel tricked when the CEO was saying this back in 2016 and 2017 and our cars are still not fully self-driving in 2021?

Hind sight is 20/20. It's easy now to point to the legal disclaimer and argue that people should have known better. But back in 2016 or 2017, we didn't know that FSD would still be beta in 2021. At the time, the CEO was repeatedly claiming our cars would be fully self-driving by 2018. You can't really fault people for thinking that our cars would be fully self-driving by now.
It says “our goal Is” not “we will meet our goal”
 

Tam

Well-Known Member
Nov 25, 2012
9,129
7,841
Visalia, CA
It says “our goal Is” not “we will meet our goal”

I am not in the business so I thought 1 year would be reasonable to get Charger Cable Bot installed along the way for the Coast-to-Coast trip.

Now that I am still not in the business, I doubt that was a realistic goal. How many Charger Cable Bot will be needed to be produced? How long does it take to work out all the bugs for the software to work with the prototype demo car and the charger cable?

It's been 5 years, so now I don't think getting Charger Cable Bot working in a public Supercharger is a 1-year task.
 

qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
3,426
2,437
VB
I am not in the business so I thought 1 year would be reasonable to get Charger Cable Bot installed along the way for the Coast-to-Coast trip.

Now that I am still not in the business, I doubt that was a realistic goal. How many Charger Cable Bot will be needed to be produced? How long does it take to work out all the bugs for the software to work with the prototype demo car and the charger cable?

It's been 5 years, so now I don't think getting Charger Cable Bot working in a public Supercharger is a 1-year task.
No need for one....
 

Ptheven

Member
Mar 9, 2019
197
270
Kellyfornya
As the saying goes "fool us 150 times, shame on..."?

Name any other company CEO that is so misleading with his certainty, time and again, for years and years?

The problem is that a lot of customers from the early "selling FSD" era, myself included, weren't long-time Tesla followers and didn't realize he's a lying liarpants. Hell, most people still don't. It's easy to think it's common knowledge when you're familiar with it, but honestly most people don't have the faintest idea.
 

mark95476

Active Member
Jun 21, 2020
1,699
1,036
Bay Area CA
It's not lacking reading comprehension. The only reason why a lot of these anonymous nicks are repeating the same FUD over and over again is hoping it'll affect Tesla. I doubt many of them are owners and have/had FSD. They've been trying for years, it's still NOT working and Tesla is doing great.

Many very dumb people lost a lot of money betting against Tesla. It's going to get worse for them the further ahead Tesla distances themselves from "the competition".

People are dumb and lack basic reading comprehension skills. Despite it being quite clear what they were buying they remain convinced they were tricked.

It’s ashame people can’t read....
 

gearchruncher

Active Member
Sep 20, 2016
2,186
2,728
Seattle, WA
The only reason why a lot of these anonymous nicks are repeating the same FUD over and over again is hoping it'll affect Tesla
10th time you've said it, we get it, you think it's a solid burn. Post your name and address or you're just another "anonymous nick" with a bias as well. I'm not convinced you own a Tesla, or are anything but a Tesla shill.

See how silly that sounds?

It's fascinating that everyone so convinced that Tesla was clear with what was being purchased just says that as if it's a fact, but can never point to a Tesla document saying it, while those that are on the other side keep posting links directly to Tesla.com. It's not FUD to say Tesla said all cars have the HW needed, nor is it FUD to then say that was untrue. Those are facts. Where is the fear, uncertainty, or doubt? Or is it that anything which makes Tesla look less than stellar must be FUD, definitions and facts be damned?

People confident in their position attack the ideas or statements, not the people saying it. When all you can say is that someone is biased, you've confirmed that what they said is true, you just would rather talk about something else.
 
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qdeathstar

Completely Serious
May 17, 2019
3,426
2,437
VB
Well, I certainly don’t think everyone who post negative experiences about Tesla are posting FUD and are anti Tesla short sellers. But there are certainly people who are or just enjoy trolling Tesla fan boys
 

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