Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[EVNow]

Tolerable performance with superhuman pricing. He's likely setting up the field for the next price increase.

I doubt they will increase the price further unless the beta gets better. They are seeing what kind of problems everyone is getting - and more importantly anyone can now see / read about what non-youtubers are experiencing.

I think they will concentrate on getting people on to the subscription. That way there is no future promise to keep - just what you can get this month. Tesla doesn't need the cash that badly anymore - with 18B in cash & just 2 B in debt. Any company in a capital intensive industry would kill for that kind of finances.

 

[cucubits]

I doubt they will increase the price further unless the beta gets better. They are seeing what kind of problems everyone is getting - and more importantly anyone can now see / read about what non-youtubers are experiencing.

I think they will concentrate on getting people on to the subscription. That way there is no future promise to keep - just what you can get this month. Tesla doesn't need the cash that badly anymore - with 18B in cash & just 2 B in debt. Any company in a capital intensive industry would kill for that kind of finances.

Right, I keep forgetting there's the subscription too now.

 

[tivoboy]

Right, I keep forgetting there's the subscription too now.

Yes, and I think I will most likely never buy FSD as a fully loaded one time cost again.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The entirety of Musk forecast comes from extrapolation.

“This is a very difficult trap to avoid.” - Elon Musk.

 

[EVNow]

Yes, and I think I will most likely never buy FSD as a fully loaded one time cost again.

LOL - I always feel the opposite. I don't mind one time large costs - but I hate monthly subscriptions.

More accurately - I tend to be less tight fisted when it comes to one time costs than monthly costs, where a $50 difference could be a deal breaker. Its all in the mind.

Currently my thinking is - we won't get FSD for the Y/X my wife will get next year. Not sure what I'll do with the cybertruck when it comes out. My "classic" 3 LR will not be traded in - but will be used by kids in 5 to 10 years. I'm hoping we'll have decent L2/L3 FSD by then.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

LOL - I always feel the opposite. I don't mind one time large costs - but I hate monthly subscriptions.

More accurately - I tend to be less tight fisted when it comes to one time costs than monthly costs, where a $50 difference could be a deal breaker. Its all in the mind.

Currently my thinking is - we won't get FSD for the Y/X my wife will get next year. Not sure what I'll do with the cybertruck when it comes out. My "classic" 3 LR will not be traded in - but will be used by kids in 5 to 10 years. I'm hoping we'll have decent L2/L3 FSD by then.

I hate subscriptions as well but $10,000 is $10,000 and we won't be paying that going forward. When it was available as $5k for EAP and $3k for FSD, I thought that was a "deal" and we'd be keeping the car for 10 to 15 years. As new hardware and longer ranges came out, we began "upgrading" our cars. Before the FSD subscription was offered, we ended up spending a total of $68,000 on AP and FSD on 11 different Teslas. We've since sold all but one of those vehicles and never really got anything for the $34,000 that we spent on FSD unless you consider how they moved all the EAP features to the FSD package on our 2020 vehicles. The car that we purchased FSD on was originally AP2 so it won't get the FSD Beta until the rest of the cameras are upgraded. For the other vehicle, we've currently subscribed to FSD Beta so that we could experience it. IF we subscribe on future vehicles, it will most likely only be for a month each year, if at all. While I really enjoy road trips with auto lane change, it's not worth $200 a month to me and we don't use auto park or summon.

 

[tivoboy]

LOL - I always feel the opposite. I don't mind one time large costs - but I hate monthly subscriptions.

More accurately - I tend to be less tight fisted when it comes to one time costs than monthly costs, where a $50 difference could be a deal breaker. Its all in the mind.

Currently my thinking is - we won't get FSD for the Y/X my wife will get next year. Not sure what I'll do with the cybertruck when it comes out. My "classic" 3 LR will not be traded in - but will be used by kids in 5 to 10 years. I'm hoping we'll have decent L2/L3 FSD by then.

If we're talking about a monthly fee EVERY month, then yes I would agree.. but I have the feeling that for me at least an FSD ad-hoc, subscription option for when I actually want to use it would save me a TON of money over say the 4-5 years I might keep the car. There are usually at least 2-3 months a year when I'm completely AWAY from the car. Some months when I work from home, I don't drive much at all. These days, nearly nothing compared to years past. So, I could easily add FSD 3-4 months of the year and save 5-6K over that same 4-5 year period.

 

[EVNow]

If we're talking about a monthly fee EVERY month, then yes I would agree.. but I have the feeling that for me at least an FSD ad-hoc, subscription option for when I actually want to use it would save me a TON of money over say the 4-5 years I might keep the car. There are usually at least 2-3 months a year when I'm completely AWAY from the car. Some months when I work from home, I don't drive much at all. These days, nearly nothing compared to years past. So, I could easily add FSD 3-4 months of the year and save 5-6K over that same 4-5 year period.

I think Tesla will get more savvy about this - and probably offer a discount if subscribed for longer than a month. Or add a "cancellation" fee or "setup" fee. Basically make longer term subscription equally / more attractive than frequent cancellations / additions. Probably not anytime soon.

 

[tivoboy]

I think Tesla will get more savvy about this - and probably offer a discount if subscribed for longer than a month. Or add a "cancellation" fee or "setup" fee. Basically make longer term subscription equally / more attractive than frequent cancellations / additions. Probably not anytime soon.

Some alternative is certainly possiible. While I wouldn't expect them to lower the monthy with longer termed subscribpionts, I would possibly expect them to make a minimum number of months and not allow 1 month on, 4 months off, 1 month on, etc. It does start to get a bit annoying for them and the user to manage though, but i would certainly help to not cannibalize FSD sales.

What I would LIKE to see is a 10K FSD, with a 2.5K transfer fee, or 12:5K FSD that allows transfer to another car (maybe ad-hoc) or to up to say three Teslas that the buyer may own.

 

[Ruffles]

I'll keep buying FSD outright. I prefer to roll it into my loan and get value back when I sell the car.

 

[AndreP]

I hate subscriptions as well but $10,000 is $10,000 and we won't be paying that going forward. When it was available as $5k for EAP and $3k for FSD, I thought that was a "deal" and we'd be keeping the car for 10 to 15 years. As new hardware and longer ranges came out, we began "upgrading" our cars. Before the FSD subscription was offered, we ended up spending a total of $68,000 on AP and FSD on 11 different Teslas. We've since sold all but one of those vehicles and never really got anything for the $34,000 that we spent on FSD unless you consider how they moved all the EAP features to the FSD package on our 2020 vehicles. The car that we purchased FSD on was originally AP2 so it won't get the FSD Beta until the rest of the cameras are upgraded. For the other vehicle, we've currently subscribed to FSD Beta so that we could experience it. IF we subscribe on future vehicles, it will most likely only be for a month each year, if at all. While I really enjoy road trips with auto lane change, it's not worth $200 a month to me and we don't use auto park or summon.

Sweet




Jesus


There has been a lot of discussion on here about FSD take rate, now I'd be really interested in seeing how many individual AP/FSD purchases are just the same people paying for it multiple times

 

[2101Guy]

I bought FSD for $4k on my prior S (The S was used, came with EAP).
Never again will I pay $10k for Level 2 autonomous driving again. Heck, Id not pay $199 for 30 days of Level 2. Not when Level 2 is FREE via AP.

 

[boonedocks]

LOL - I always feel the opposite. I don't mind one time large costs - but I hate monthly subscriptions.

More accurately - I tend to be less tight fisted when it comes to one time costs than monthly costs, where a $50 difference could be a deal breaker. Its all in the mind.

Currently my thinking is - we won't get FSD for the Y/X my wife will get next year. Not sure what I'll do with the cybertruck when it comes out. My "classic" 3 LR will not be traded in - but will be used by kids in 5 to 10 years. I'm hoping we'll have decent L2/L3 FSD by then.

I would agree IF we kept our cars longer than a few years. The $10k vs $200 monthly for a car we will only keep 2-3 years makes no sense.

Tesla “claims” to honor FSD transfers to new vehicles in the form of a higher trade in value.

Has anyone ever priced their trade in with and without FSD…..they don’t honor it worth

 

[EVNow]

Tesla “claims” to honor FSD transfers to new vehicles in the form of a higher trade in value.

Has anyone ever priced their trade in with and without FSD…..they don’t honor it worth

Fairly sure they do give higher price (like Zach says) - but won't be surprised if its a small amount. Its all computed by a program anyway - and they must be tweaking it all the time based on how much the cars go for in auction as well as what other dealers pay for the cars.

Now that Tesla has subscription - they should throw in a few months of subscription / discount instead. Would be more tangible.

 

[nvx1977]

I find this tweet extremely insightful, because now I can map my own assessment of AP on highways to what musk defines as "superhuman."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387892143792984065

Almost feels like a Fahrenheit to Celcius conversion. If Musk thinks FSD is good enough for a 32, then it's actually just come out of negative territory and is a solid 0.

 

[TIppy]

I've read that if the car passes through Tesla on the way to the auction house the FSD gets removed eventually, often after the car has been sold at auction. Because of this uncertainty, the value of FSD isn't recognized by the wholesalers. At least if you lease, you only pay the depreciation on FSD. This assumes they include the cost of FSD in the residual.

 

[EVNow]

I've read that if the car passes through Tesla on the way to the auction house the FSD gets removed eventually, often after the car has been sold at auction. Because of this uncertainty, the value of FSD isn't recognized by the wholesalers. At least if you lease, you only pay the depreciation on FSD. This assumes they include the cost of FSD in the residual.

Tesla always removes FSD on trade-ins. Exactly when the status gets updated on the car itself depends on connectivity etc. Those Tesla trade-ins do get sold [/QUOTE]fast.

Yes, FSD if bought with the car in the beginning, like with any other accessory is included in the capitalized costs and depreciates. So, on a 3 year lease, one would only pay about half the price. Still cheaper than subscribing for 36 months.

 

[rxlawdude]

Right, I keep forgetting there's the subscription too now.

But subscribers will be on their own in having to BUY any hardware improvements towards the "feature complete" FSD.

 

[ohmman]

Moderator Note: 33 posts moved to Hertz buying 100,000 Teslas.

 

[TIppy]

Tesla always removes FSD on trade-ins. Exactly when the status gets updated on the car itself depends on connectivity etc. Those Tesla trade-ins do get sold

fast.

Yes, FSD if bought with the car in the beginning, like with any other accessory is included in the capitalized costs and depreciates. So, on a 3 year lease, one would only pay about half the price. Still cheaper than subscribing for 36 months.
[/QUOTE]


It depends on whether they include FSD in the residual value. The depreciation you pay is the cap cost minus the residual. If they don't give you credit for FSD in the residual, you end up paying for the full 10K over three years.

If you pay 100K for a car that has a residual of 60 %, then you pay off 40K over three years plus the interest on the declining balance. If you add 10k for FSD then the cap cost would be 110K, and at 60% the residual value would be 66K, so you would have to pay off 44k over the three years. So you would pay 4k for FSD.

You don't always get credit for options on a lease, so they don't increase the residual value. If that is the case with FSD, then the residual in the above example would still be 60K, and you would have to pay off 50K over three years. That is, you would pay for the full 10k over that time. The effective residual value is lowered to 54.5%.

We would have to know what the residual value for the car was with and without FSD, to know for sure.