Elon Musk Confirms Made-In-Texas Model Y Will Be 4680-Powered

[DonaldBecker]

The CT casting building in Austin hasn't even started construction and the 8,000 ton press hasn't been built. Whereas the MY casting building already has 2 of the smaller (6,500 ton?) machines installed. One of them is pumping-out castings that are getting shipped somewhere. Paint shop has a lot of the equipment installed. It's pretty obvious the MY will be produced first.

Those castings might be for cybertruck production, or at least refining the tooling for it.
The "front casting" we've seen recently doesn't look as if it's for the Model Y. It might actually be for the CT.

There is video of the first Austin press dry cycling. It took three months for Fremont to have delivered parts from that point, and presumably some of that was refining the tooling.
The STØTEK melting furnace was delivered in February, suggesting that they plan on having the whole system operational much earlier than the rest of the factory.
I expect that Austin will be shipping castings to Fremont, but they might be stockpiling castings so they can do both Model Y production and CT prototypes simultaneously.

 

[imola.zhp]

I had assumed the CT will have 4680 too, thats how they can achieve the ranges they have spec'd for such a large vehicle?

Since Fremont Model Y line is fully functional I figured they would concentrate on CT over Y out of Austin to get going especially with the crazy amount of pre-orders for CT.

But nobody knows, its all speculation at this point.

It's actually not speculation at all, it is widely known that the Y will come first from Texas. They've already started mega casting the front pieces in Texas, and seem to be hauling them to California. My guess is to finalize the 4680 Y remotely, in California, while the Texas plant continues to be built.

Tesla Completes First Model Y Megacasting At Giga Austin

Tesla plans to start producing the Model Y at its upcoming Texas Gigafactory this year. The automaker has already cast the crossover's underbody.

insideevs.com

Yes, the CT will also have 4680, 4680 is the next step for Tesla, everything in Texas will have 4680. I think eventually all Tesla models will switch to 4680.

Now here is some speculation...
Model Y production transitions to Austin. Key word is transitions, this keeps the vehicles moving out to customers.
After the transition, old Model Y lines transition to 4680 Model 3 lines. Key word, again, is transitions, this keeps vehicles moving out to customers. Simultaneously China and Berlin start handling demand for 3 in Europe.
After the transition, old Model 3 lines transition to Roadster 2.0, Semi, or both.

 

[imola.zhp]

Those castings might be for cybertruck production, or at least refining the tooling for it.
The "front casting" we've seen recently doesn't look as if it's for the Model Y. It might actually be for the CT.

There is video of the first Austin press dry cycling. It took three months for Fremont to have delivered parts from that point, and presumably some of that was refining the tooling.
The STØTEK melting furnace was delivered in February, suggesting that they plan on having the whole system operational much earlier than the rest of the factory.
I expect that Austin will be shipping castings to Fremont, but they might be stockpiling castings so they can do both Model Y production and CT prototypes simultaneously.

Photo comparisons of the castings vs the photos from battery day indicate the front castings are not for CT, they are for Y. I don't understand why people are pushing back on this, I believe Musk has confirmed several times that Y will come first from Texas. See my speculation as to why in my previous comment above.

CT will be the second vehicle made in Austin, they need to keep the cash-cow Model Y pumping out. Austin's build quality will be much better than Fremont which will help the Y hold its ground against its competition.

 

[Stealth.Pilot]

What do you guys think is the benefit of the new cells? I would think it mainly benefits Tesla by lowering the cost of producing an 82kwh battery.

Offering a larger battery for the same price is not necessary given the competition, and cutting the price isn't really in the company's interest.

 

[whisperingshad]

What do you guys think is the benefit of the new cells? I would think it mainly benefits Tesla by lowering the cost of producing an 82kwh battery.

Offering a larger battery for the same price is not necessary given the competition, and cutting the price isn't really in the company's interest.

Same range lower cost to Tesla(not us). Maybe a LR+ with 400 miles range

 

[Marxw]

Don't Elon announced that the 4680 will be expected in... 18 months?

So 36 mths? Got it

 

[MaxHG]

I expect that the 4860 cells will be similar to the single piece rear casting. The single piece casting simplified manufacturing, but had negligible customer-visible benefit beyond enabling a 7 seat option. People here wanted it, but almost no one else cared. There is no indication that it impacts resale value.

Help me understand your comment. I am not familiar with all things Tesla. Are you suggesting that the single piece casting is already in use and this is what enabled the availability of the 7 seat option? It was my understanding that the new single casting would begin in China and then only in the US with Austin Texas built cars. I’m happier if you’re correct where it’s in production now.

 

[Stealth.Pilot]

Same range lower cost to Tesla(not us). Maybe a LR+ with 400 miles range

This is exactly what I think. And the LR+ will be at a higher price point. In fact it may be a Performance+ if they follow what they are doing on the Model S where you can only buy 500 mile range with Plaid.

 

[Stealth.Pilot]

Help me understand your comment. I am not familiar with all things Tesla. Are you suggesting that the single piece casting is already in use and this is what enabled the availability of the 7 seat option? It was my understanding that the new single casting would begin in China and then only in the US with Austin Texas built cars. I’m happier if you’re correct where it’s in production now.

They have single piece rear casting in Fremont.

Tesla starts production of Model Y with massive single-piece rear casting

Tesla has started production of the Model Y with a massive single-piece rear casting, according to a picture of a...

electrek.co

 

[KenYoung1]

I'm still waiting for the bird-view and track mode that Elon confirmed for my MY.

 

[whisperingshad]

Just got my Y last month. Will probably wait a few years and have GF sell the prime and take the Y...IF they make a hatchback 4 door with the 4680,.etc

 

[MaxHG]

They have single piece rear casting in Fremont.

Tesla starts production of Model Y with massive single-piece rear casting

Tesla has started production of the Model Y with a massive single-piece rear casting, according to a picture of a...

electrek.co

Thanks for the post/link. I had read about the previously but was under the impression that the single casting was only China and some to be Berlin. Glad it’s started in the USA. Wish the new battery cells etc would start sooner as my Y will probably come a few months before the changes… at least I get the quieter rear single casting (that is, if it is quieter).

 

[mnevar]

It's actually not speculation at all, it is widely known that the Y will come first from Texas. They've already started mega casting the front pieces in Texas, and seem to be hauling them to California. My guess is to finalize the 4680 Y remotely, in California, while the Texas plant continues to be built.

I kinda thought they were shipping them out as well, but later drone shots show they are stockpiling them in Austin. Yesterday's flyover showed ~150 in the area they were previously storing the robot assemblers.

 

[qdeathstar]

Does anyone have a Elon to real life timeline conversion calculator?

2026

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So Austin gets the 4680s first because they're on-time.

Maybe Tesla should build Berlin and keep it empty as a monument to German bureaucracy like that nearby airport. Tesla can import all vehicles into Europe from China or the US.

Berlin Brandenburg (BER) is open.

 

[mark95476]

Just in time for the pandemic. Yikes!

Berlin Brandenburg (BER) is open.

 

[avs007]

This is exactly what I think. And the LR+ will be at a higher price point. In fact it may be a Performance+ if they follow what they are doing on the Model S where you can only buy 500 mile range with Plaid.

This is what I think as well, because personally it's the only one that makes sense, if they are still going to be making Ys in Fremont until the transition is complete... Becuase if it was co-mingled, then it would be a crap shoot if you got an old Y or a new Y when you order. That's why I think a LR+ and Performance+ makes more sense for the new models, and LR and P for the outgoing models.

 

[Mr X]

400 mile range easily


People that don't know about this will be pissed when it comes out after taking delivery of their 2170 cell Y lol

 

[240W]

400 mile range easily


People that don't know about this will be pissed when it comes out after taking delivery of their 2170 cell Y lol

not necessarily, by the time this comes out many months from now, they would've raised the price every other Thursday to be $15k more, haha

 

[imola.zhp]

400 mile range easily


People that don't know about this will be pissed when it comes out after taking delivery of their 2170 cell Y lol

Nah, 4680's will likely be labeled LR+ and P+ and will likely carry a larger price tag.