Elon & Twitter

[JRP3]

Seemingly give you facts without the context.

Luckily catturd would never do that, like when he says EV's can't work.

 

[Norbert]

Luckily catturd would never do that, like when he says EV's can't work.

That guy is everywhere. Apparently the "algorithm" is working in his favor.

 

[DrGriz]

When somebody makes a prediction, and clearly labels it as a prediction, complaining that it isn't proven is kind of stupid. The best you can do is point out what you think are issues with the data or the logic and wait to see how things turn out.

Thanks for the pointer. I am all in favor of his predictions and hope he is right. It's upthread when he offered last year's sales numbers as evidence that this year's sales won't be affected by Musk's late 2022 and subsequent Twitter activity that I objected.

Peace.

 

[italian bread]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639681386318536706

Funny how he doesn’t mention that the revenue drop was because of him and the debt being serviced are his loans to buy twitter.

 

[Electroman]

I would say, that is technically the way it is SUPPOSED to work, but in the past 3-4 months that has 100% not been my experience. I have not added anyone or removed anyone and yet my feed on Twitter has become utterly and completely polluted with conspiracy posts, either direct or RT, signifiant right wing narratives, total whack jobs, either direct or RT (think, MTG and MG and DJTJR) NOTHING i would have historically seen in my feed.

I consume that information in more limited fashion via other channels, to see - as you say, BOTH sides and to understand either the spin, narrative, direct of discussion from BOTH sides.

But historically, my Twitter feed was really ONLY the people I followed or companies or organizations I followed and that has not been the case for many months.

At this point, the "feed" is totally unusable and unmanageable to the extent that it's no longer of direct use.

At one point it was clear, posted and confirmed that either A) the firehose had been turned on or B) that Elons feed was somehow driving the overall algorithm influence for ALL feeds. This could have been a point in time issue, but whatever has occurred in the past 3-4 months has persisted to this day, for this user at least and others I have discussed it with AT THE COMPANY.

I don't see any change in my feed. There are two tabs now, 'For you' and 'Following'. The 'Following' tab only gives tweets from my the folks I am following. The 'For you' tab takes some liberty and can sometimes be annoying, but I have unearthed a few good people to follow through that.

 

[Electroman]

Funny how he doesn’t mention that the revenue drop was because of him and the debt being serviced are his loans to buy twitter.

The revenue drop was because of the woke media thinking that if they hit Twitter with a revenue drop Musk will buckle and fall in line.

They tried that with Tesla writing hundreds of hit pieces over the years, hooping the public will stop buying his cars, but that didn't work. Now with Twitter they are trying their luck again.

 

[Gigapress]

Thanks for the pointer. I am all in favor of his predictions and hope he is right. It's upthread when he offered last year's sales numbers as evidence that this year's sales won't be affected by Musk's late 2022 and subsequent Twitter activity that I objected.

Peace.

Elon has been increasingly involved in politics and often in excessively aggressive and distasteful ways for the last three years. There has been no shortage of controversy surrounding his relationship with American liberals and in particular Democratic politicians since 2020 when it began with him ranting on an official Tesla earnings call about Bay Area COVID lockdowns being "fascist" and demanding that local officials "give people back their goddamn freedom". It has been escalating for quite some time, and therefore the econometric data for 2020 through 2022 is in fact relevant to testing whether this behavior has materially impacted demand.

Now apparently the goalposts have been moved to basically asserting that we should ignore all that past stuff and the clear trend of increasing demand throughout that entire time period because the real antics and problematic behavior that matter began after the acquisition in October. Ok, well even if we want to accept that premise, we can still look at data for that time period because some is already available.

1) Tesla set yet another record for automotive deliveries and revenue in Q4 '22, and this was true both globally and particularly in California

2) Tesla appears on track for Q1 to beat Q4's record both globally and in California, or at least deep-blue, tech-obsessed Silicon Valley as evidenced by the data from the Santa Clara car dealership association's presentation of registration data from Experian for January and February

3) Tesla announced that order rates are currently at an all-time high and are double the rate of production from the factories, even though prices on an inflation-adjusted basis are the same as Q1 '21 and loan financing costs are much higher than in Q1 ‘21 and EV competition from other car makers has increased

4) Elon stated on a Dec 22 2022 Twitter Space discussion (at 2:12:40) in response to a question about the impact of his political activism that automotive demand was softening globally with no significant difference between places that would and wouldn’t care about American politics. He has access to the internal data and has a legal responsibility as a corporate officer to tell the truth about material information such as this. He emphatically stated it was a “minor, minor impact” and “not a significant factor”.

It's just one strike after another in favor of rejecting the hypothesis that Elon & Twitter have materially hurt Tesla's demand. What high-quality evidence is there that’s in favor of that hypothesis?

At this point, the demand concern theory basically comes down to believing that none of the past behavior mattered much and the issues in the five months since he took over Twitter are coming but still somehow latent and won’t manifest until some indeterminate time in the future, and in the meantime we should ignore the fact that Tesla sales and market share during this new era are higher than ever before. I can’t conclusively declare with certainty that this is false but the evidence points towards it being very unlikely.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't see any change in my feed. There are two tabs now, 'For you' and 'Following'. The 'Following' tab only gives tweets from my the folks I am following. The 'For you' tab takes some liberty and can sometimes be annoying, but I have unearthed a few good people to follow through that.

I think this tweet about covers it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639204732228055040

 

[Dave EV]

At some point the "it's too early to tell" and the "there's too many moving parts to estimate an effect" arguments need to show some actual evidence that at least suggest at the possibility that they might be true.

The "Elon's reputation has no effect on Tesla's sales" needs to also show some evidence they might be right. Saying that sales are at record levels does not prove anything. Correlation != causation. BTW - 22Q4 also had significant price cuts, too to move metal.

Just because sales are good, does not mean that they would not be better if Elon didn't constantly act like an idiot. The surveys of Elon's favorability and many, many anecdotes of people opting for other EVs would indicate he for sure has had a negative impact.

 

[italian bread]

The revenue drop was because of the woke media thinking that if they hit Twitter with a revenue drop Musk will buckle and fall in line.

They tried that with Tesla writing hundreds of hit pieces over the years, hooping the public will stop buying his cars, but that didn't work. Now with Twitter they are trying their luck again.

Or it might be because of all the unmoderated hate speech (that’s free speech absolutism for Musk fans) which Musk let back onto Twitter and companies don’t want their ads to show up next to hate speech as that looks like an endorsement from the company.

And what is it do you think “woke media” is trying to force Musk to do? Fall in line how?

While conservatives have tried to make “woke” into a negative term, this is the primary definition of woke:
aware of and actively attentive to important societal facts and issues (especially issues of racial and social justice)

 

[sunwarriors]

Elon has been increasingly involved in politics and often in excessively aggressive and distasteful ways for the last three years. There has been no shortage of controversy surrounding his relationship with American liberals and in particular Democratic politicians since 2020 when it began with him ranting on an official Tesla earnings call about Bay Area COVID lockdowns being "fascist" and demanding that local officials "give people back their goddamn freedom". It has been escalating for quite some time, and therefore the econometric data for 2020 through 2022 is in fact relevant to testing whether this behavior has materially impacted demand.

Now apparently the goalposts have been moved to basically asserting that we should ignore all that past stuff and the clear trend of increasing demand throughout that entire time period because the real antics and problematic behavior that matter began after the acquisition in October. Ok, well even if we want to accept that premise, we can still look at data for that time period because some is already available.

1) Tesla set yet another record for automotive deliveries and revenue in Q4 '22, and this was true both globally and particularly in California

2) Tesla appears on track for Q1 to beat Q4's record both globally and in California, or at least deep-blue, tech-obsessed Silicon Valley as evidenced by the data from the Santa Clara car dealership association's presentation of registration data from Experian for January and February

3) Tesla announced that order rates are currently at an all-time high and are double the rate of production from the factories, even though prices on an inflation-adjusted basis are the same as Q1 '21 and loan financing costs are much higher than in Q1 ‘21 and EV competition from other car makers has increased

4) Elon stated on a Dec 22 2022 Twitter Space discussion (at 2:12:40) in response to a question about the impact of his political activism that automotive demand was softening globally with no significant difference between places that would and wouldn’t care about American politics. He has access to the internal data and has a legal responsibility as a corporate officer to tell the truth about material information such as this. He emphatically stated it was a “minor, minor impact” and “not a significant factor”.

It's just one strike after another in favor of rejecting the hypothesis that Elon & Twitter have materially hurt Tesla's demand. What high-quality evidence is there that’s in favor of that hypothesis?

At this point, the demand concern theory basically comes down to believing that none of the past behavior mattered much and the issues in the five months since he took over Twitter are coming but still somehow latent and won’t manifest until some indeterminate time in the future, and in the meantime we should ignore the fact that Tesla sales and market share during this new era are higher than ever before. I can’t conclusively declare with certainty that this is false but the evidence points towards it being very unlikely.

I think we should at least wait till 2023 is done. You mention Q4 '22 in the post above, but the massive price drop (back to near old levels) is too big of an outlier to dismiss and anyone moving from ICE to EV must consider a Tesla with the charging network, price and dealership issues. I think the Model Y is the only car that matters though since the X and S aren't selling that well and they have had to cut those models multiple times now so there seems to be a demand issue for those or they wouldn't cut prices right?

When you can pay $20k less for a MY that was $68k one day, and $48k after tax credits, all the data from Q1 '23 IMO is just too much noise for the fence sitters who were waiting to buy and there were incentives late Q4 '22 too.

The price hasn't moved up back to old levels yet, but my view is we can toss out data from '22 and Q1 '23 and just look ahead since that's all that matters now as to whether his Twitter and tweet storm is having an impact.

There are folks here (you) who feel Elon's antics will have near nil effect, we will see really as it plays out in the months/years ahead. It's a moving target as there is more competition now too. There are personal accounts of it having an effect from folks posting here, but not sure if it's a big enough impact yet from numbers.

 

[JRP3]

The revenue drop was because of the woke media thinking that if they hit Twitter with a revenue drop Musk will buckle and fall in line.

This is complete nonsense perpetrated by the right. Simply reporting the factual increase in hate speech that occurred after Elon took over is not "woke media", whatever that means. Even Twitter's own graphs that that claim to represent the decrease in hate speech also show the extreme spike in hate speech that happened right after Elon took over. Advertisers reacted negatively to that spike, not surprisingly. I guess "woke" = "facts" in your eyes, no wonder you dislike it so much. It's also obvious why your personal Twitter experience has not be negative since the change.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Thats not how how you effectively use Twitter. You should follow select individuals who you think you trust, on both sides of the debate. And most of your feed will be from those individuals.

Now how do you find out who are the sources that are good enough for you? That takes time that you wade through initially read tweets from a variety of people and only select those that you think are high quality sources for both news and opinion. But once you built that solid list, then your feed becomes a rich set of items that are far better than anything fake media can throw at you.

You have to first understand this: 90% of the media out there are gaslighting. Seemingly give you facts without the context.

You're just describing a walled garden that you've built primarily on confirmation bias.

 

[JRP3]

Elon has been increasingly involved in politics and often in excessively aggressive and distasteful ways for the last three years. There has been no shortage of controversy surrounding his relationship with American liberals and in particular Democratic politicians since 2020 when it began with him ranting on an official Tesla earnings call about Bay Area COVID lockdowns being "fascist" and demanding that local officials "give people back their goddamn freedom". It has been escalating for quite some time, and therefore the econometric data for 2020 through 2022 is in fact relevant to testing whether this behavior has materially impacted demand.

The bolded words point out the difference from the past and show the path to the extreme high levels Elon reached in 2022 and especially after the Twitter takeover near the end of the year. There is a difference between the occasional unhinged Tweet and the non stop multiple Tweets per day promoting unsavory individuals and easily debunked nonsense.

 

[DrGriz]

The bolded words point out the difference from the past and show the path to the extreme high levels Elon reached in 2022 and especially after the Twitter takeover near the end of the year. There is a difference between the occasional unhinged Tweet and the non stop multiple Tweets per day promoting unsavory individuals and easily debunked nonsense.

This, and it is interesting that @Gigapress doesn't see the Twitter purchase and the subsequent hyper-antics as an obvious ramp up of what was an occasional tweet before. Unbanning blocked bad actors, many, many retweets of conspiracy theories, Twitter dump of Hunter Bidens laptop, Prosecute/Fauci, etc.

Maybe he thinks Elon hasn't changed Twitter substantially.

 

[DrGriz]

Now apparently the goalposts have been moved...

I apologize if I didn't understand the goalpost. As said above, I think many of us see the Twitter purchase as a natural goalpost.

But regardless, it appears your basic assertion is that Elon Twitter has had no effect on sales growth. I and others are asking you to prove your assertion. All you have shown so far is that some growth has maybe continued. In select markets.

You said:

If there were anywhere in the entire country and world where I would be concerned about seeing negative Tesla demand impacts of some of Elon’s more right-wing political views and his vocal criticisms of the current state of the Democratic Party that he has been expressing recently, it would be the LA and SF metro areas

You assert (without proof, it's just your opinion) that these markets should show a drop-off in sales if there's a Musk Twitter effect. But, as you point out, they are atypical. There are neighborhoods in these markets where every other driveway has a Tesla. And in some driveways (my brother and sister in law's for example) there are two. Those markets are fundamentally different from the rest of the world. I would submit that if and when there's a drop off in those markets, it may be because of saturation, not Elon antics. But I would only say "maybe" because it's an assertion that is impossible to prove when there are multiple factors and we are talking about lost potential sales.

It's on you to prove your assertion, and ongoing sales growth at some level is not enough. You have put yourself into a philosophical bind having to prove a negative. I don't think you can, because it's impossible for you to quantify lost sales from any specific factor.

All that said, I hope you are right and growth continues unabated despite Elon Twitter. I absolutely want to see the most rapid transition to EVs possible. I also think it is OK for those of us who feel that way to worry about possible impediments to that progress. It doesn't make us shorts or haters.

 

[Bet TSLA]

It's on you to prove your assertion

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. This is the real world, not a mathematical abstraction. There is no such thing as proof, and nobody (other than you) is claiming there is.

 

[DrGriz]

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. This is the real world, not a mathematical abstraction. There is no such thing as proof, and nobody (other than you) is claiming there is.

He made an assertion and claimed he had "evidence." It's not. His evidence didn't support his claim to any degree. Call it what you will.

I absolutely agree that there's no proof and it's impossible to have it. I don't think you understand what I am saying.

 

[Electroman]

Or it might be because of all the unmoderated hate speech

There is a small section of population like this poster, who tomorrow if the media says in unison that earth is flat, they will begin to believe earth is flat. And the media is capable of gaslighting at that level, if it serves their purpose.
Elon's Twitter is exposing media lies every day.

Media's number 1 enemy is Twitter, and then Tesla which doesn't pay them a dime of protection money (aka advts). Media knows that if Twitter gets wildly successful, they are toast and their days are numbered. So all these lies and exaggeration of unmoderated hate speech and such.

There was a small window of two weeks or so last year as soon as Musk took over, there was orchestrated flood of hate speech on Twitter. And since then Twitter managed to clamp down hate speech every effectively and completely eliminated child porn which was running rampant before. Did you hear anything from the media on how bad things were on child porn and how the new Twitter had done a great job on that?

No you won't hear from them. Their job is to exaggerate and gaslight that Twitter is bad and Musk is fraud.
And your job is to run with it as a blind sheep.

I have asked many, if they have actually experienced and seen any increase in hate speech - the standard response is: NO I have not, BUT I have read in the media about it. SHEEP.

 

[Electroman]

It's a moving target as there is more competition now too

There you see another victim of media gaslighting on 'coming competition'. They have been shouting and pleading from the rooftops asking people not to buy Teslas as the competition is just one quarter away.. for the last 6+ years..