Elon & Twitter

[wdolson]

Another veiled reference to the destruction of Twitter which will be denied later.

Pretty much non-stop then when it’s called out later on “We never said that”.



@Daniel in SD

I have made my prediction clear. I think it's highly likely this will fail. It may limp along as some kind of alt-right media site, or it may fold entirely. I give a very outside chance that it will succeed, but unlike SpaceX and Tesla (which I always thought had a good chance of success), I am very skeptical.

I could see a path to success for SpaceX and Tesla. They had no viable competition for years. Twitter has tons of competition and this stumble has lot of people looking at alternatives and there are lots of alternatives. I see no viable path to success. If I do see a path emerge, I will evolve my opinion. At this time, I see no daylight at the end of this tunnel.

People have left Twitter in a tiff before. People leave loudly, and return quietly.

It turns out that making a big deal about going to Mastadon doesn’t mean your followers will quit Twitter and follow you. They will post on Mastadon… realize they only have 50 followers, try to hold out for 2 months… then slink back.

MySpace was once the big thing in social media. Listservs were once the thing and now many people don't know what they were.

We will see what users do.

On top of the users getting happy feet, their revenue source is also drying up with rumors that last people who run the advertising department are going to be let go. Revenue is going to be problem too.

There are 3 giant problems:
1) Users are looking at alternatives
2) Revenue is drying up with no other viable options in sight
3) Possible technical problems from problems of too much staff lost too quickly. Of this one we have no idea if there are any holes and where they are.

Any one of those could sink the platform. The mercurial behavior of the owner doesn't help any of these problems.

 

[Ogre]

A couple days ago Twitter was going to die because their employees were gone. Now they are dying because a couple users stormed out.

What new death prediction will tomorrow bring?

Just a friendly reminder.

99% of Twitter is not politics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594489144520347648

 

[ElectricIAC]

A couple days ago Twitter was going to die because their employees were gone. Now they are dying because a couple users stormed out.

What new death prediction will tomorrow bring?

Probably something to do with the recent unbans and how it’s a tHrEaT tO dEmOcRaCy to not take marching orders from minitrue.

 

[MC3OZ]

On top of the users getting happy feet, their revenue source is also drying up with rumors that last people who run the advertising department are going to be let go. Revenue is going to be problem too.

There are a lot of rumours apparently floating around, but every time I look at Twitter:-

• It still works, and I am noticing small but significant improvements, e.g. many official sites are now tagged official.
• All of the posters I follow still seem to be there - Twitter is still the best source for up to date information on the Ukraine war - or at least good enough for me.
• Advertising still seems to be present, I'm not noticing fewer ads.

We know fewer staff definitely means lower expenses with staff being a major overhead for this type of business, so far we don't know if fewer staff means less revenue.

So are you going to be singing this Twitter death watch tune for the next 4 years?

I want to see definite evidence that the patient is sick before declaring them dead, So far nothing obvious, in spite of all the rumours.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

99% of Twitter is not politics.

So why does the new CEO spend so much time and personal intervention on that one topic, including reversing many promises about it?

 

[ElectricIAC]

So why does the new CEO spend so much time and personal intervention on that one topic, including reversing many promises about it?

It’s his current shiny object. Once a new one catches his eye you’ll see him move on to that and place some trusted associates to keep the operation going.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So far nothing obvious, in spite of all the rumours.

I’ve seen a couple minor issues:

“Rate limit exceeded” in notifications tab from time to time. I don’t think that is normal behavior.

Occasional excess delay on refreshing of TL.

Anyway probably any technical issues like that will be solved pretty promptly because they have to be. There may be downtime, but I doubt the whole thing will just go down for an extended time.

The bigger issue will be the burn rate over time, and whether that can be slowed. We’ll see. Seems like it is going to be a drag on Elon’s finances.

At this point I have no idea what the vision is.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

It’s his current shiny object. Once a new one catches his eye you’ll see him move on to that and place some trusted associates to keep the operation going.

I recall the Elon Fanboys promising us that this misadventure would be immediately revolutionary, totally no distraction in any way from the focus on TSLA and Space-X, and bring us the glorious obvious goodness of free-speech absolutism which in no way resembles 8Chan.

Wait, did some of that not happen?

 

[ElectricIAC]

I recall the Elon Fanboys promising us that this misadventure would be immediately revolutionary, totally no distraction in any way from the focus on TSLA and Space-X, and bring us the glorious obvious goodness of free-speech absolutism which in no way resembles 8Chan.

Wait, did some of that not happen?

One of two paths. He turns it into something worth far more than what he bought in for or he eventually chalks it up to a loss and burns it down.

Either way, the world is better for it.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

On the plus side Twitter is private now. Don't know how this compares to MySpace or other social media attempts.

 

[MC3OZ]

I’ve seen a couple minor issues:

“Rate limit exceeded” in notifications tab from time to time. I don’t think that is normal behavior.

Occasional excess delay on refreshing of TL.

Anyway probably any technical issues like that will be solved pretty promptly because they have to be. There may be downtime, but I doubt the whole thing will just go down for an extended time.

The bigger issue will be the burn rate over time, and whether that can be slowed. We’ll see. Seems like it is going to be a drag on Elon’s finances.

At this point I have no idea what the vision is.

I think Elon outlined the vision fairly clearly.

1. Reduce head count.
2. Fix search.
3. Add monetized video.
4. Encourage users to pay $8 per month.
5. Deprioritize tweets with bad content.
6. Verify users.
7. Add payments and banking services.

In the end I expect a monthly fee for Twitter to include a credit card and transaction bank account.

Elon says that he has enough funds to steer Twitter through a recession. But step 1. Is important.

So the plan is fairly odvious and it might succeed.

More importantly I don't think Elon needs to see more Tesla shares anytime soon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This number is higher than mDAU was…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592254605169111041

Elon has increased users by 100+%!

yeah, haha.

 

[Spacep0d]

On the trust issue and getting people to work for you, didn't we see in Russia that having only Yes men is generally a bad way to lead a company/country/war to success?

If top engineers can't offer valuable insight without threat of simply getting axed/fired because they said something, you end up with a situation like Russia where all the Russia generals only say whatever Putin or Elon wants to hear.

I don't see how that's helpful to Elon OR Twitter overall. Elon isn't God and doesn't know everything (his back and forth, firing, begging, asking people to come back clearly shows that). Folks don't have to love him to work for him, but saying you lean one way or the other means you'll sabotage him is a stretch I feel. Any top/decent/honest worker has their own reputation and pride to maintain and life to live with themselves.

You can remove saboteurs and your ideological enemies (who have shown to be actively working against Elon's interests) without making it a company of YesMen. Have a look at Tesla and SpaceX, and see the achievements therein. Do these companies look to be full of 'YesMen' to you? No.

Same for Twitter. Remember, at-will employment doesn't need a reason, really. Elon can fire whom he chooses, for his own reasons.

 

[Spacep0d]

So do I, my wife, and 2 sons. I started a consulting company and grew it to nice size, then sold it and stayed on for a decade running one of the offices. I still do independent work and even at my age I am contacted multiple times per day for opportunities. I dont think Elon would be interested in a gray hair like me. He would be after my sons. They now wouldnt even think about working for him. They were interested in working for Climate Change fighting Elon. Not this Elon. Now I am about to get people on here to tell me that my sons are liberal snowflakes. People like to point out that like 98% of Twitter employees voted/gave to Democrats. That same chart says 94% of Tesla employees did as well. Oh also my oldest did get contacted for a 2nd interview from Tesla a few years back, but Tesla recruiting was to slow and he was starting a new job the following Monday so he turned it down.

Well it's not surprising that your sons' politics would be similar (and even more left) than your own. When I was young I was politically similar to my parents, then I went very left (more left than them) and the Left then went WAY to the Left (capital L) and here we are. I'm still center-left, but I'm a Gen-Xer and Elon doesn't offend me in the slightest. I think the guy's a hero in many ways, including this Twitter buy. He's got big plans for it, but people are short-sighted.

I also don't need my employer to mirror my politics as long as it's a good place to work. Can't say that about most young people these days (Gen-Z and such), as they're far more radical and politicized.

 

[Spacep0d]

nice attempt at spin. Completely wrong, but I'll give you half a point for trying.

My point stands, especially if you care about tone. People even tell us that 'tone matters'. Which is it? Does tone matter? Can respect or lack thereof be transmitted via text, 'doctor'? See? I put your title in scare quotes to mimic disrespect, but this is simply an example. I'm not really trying to disrespect your title.

Respect, civility, tone, humility (and a long list of other traits of emotional intellect) matter a lot, especially when you're under fire from all sides like Musk is right now. He's got Senator Karen coming after him via the FTC (among others), hit pieces by 'journalists' all over the place, constant character attacks, etc. It's really quite absurd.

And here you are implying that tone doesn't matter. When you approach your boss in public it matters, especially when passions are running high between ideological opposition.

I'll give you half a point for trying too.

 

[Spacep0d]

Anecdata: Coworker said her daughter left Twitter yesterday and the people she knows that stayed are people with H1Bs.

Wow, I'm shocked that a Gen-Z female left Twitter. That's unusual! Kidding. This is expected.

 

[Spacep0d]

This is spot on. Elon is known to "cull" at his companies. He has done it at SpaceX and Tesla.

This first round of culling at Twitter is going to cut to the bone, and it's going to just look absolutely hideous to us outsiders. People will ask "why is he firing everyone that know how things run, etc. etc.". My friend formerly at Tesla said it's simple: "if you don't buy into Elon's vision of what he wants to accomplish, you are a hinderance and not a help. He would rather cut you early and be done with it and not bother dealing with you in the future than risking future drama with you."

Like it or not, agree with it or not, that's Elon's Modus Operandi. You must see the vision as he sees it, AND you must be *sugar* hot at your job. If you aren't, you are likely gone.


Someone mentioned something interesting on Youtube today about this - Tesla got ~500,000 job applications in the past year, but only hired 2-3% of those. There are a LOT of people that want to work at an Elon company. Enough so that he will have zero problems filling Twitter positions with quality talent. The recession and layoffs at other silicon valley firms will only help him recruit talent. SV is not a cheap place to live. And if you just got laid off from META and have a mortgage, kids, etc. you may take a lower-paying job at Twitter to pay the bills, and keep your mouth shut knowing you are under Elon's umbrella, than be jobless.

Talent that he believes will NOT undermine him going forward is what he wants. And again, that's the key - if Elon even gets a hint that you are not on "Team Elon", he doesn't want you. You may know everything about Twitter's inner workings, but you are still useless to him.


EDIT - and all these people that get canned, and then go tweet and post about it and how much they hate Elon and how much he's destroying Twitter . . . . well they just confirm for Elon that he made the right choice to can them.

An ideological enemy who is bold enough to reveal this fact whilst working for Elon is worse than useless....it's dangerous. But yeah I agree with your post. He's clearing house, as-expected. He already dealt with saboteurs at Tesla, and he knows enough about human behavior to know that it's not worth the time and trouble.

 

[Spacep0d]

The most surprising thing about this thread, and I say this as a long time member of this site who has watched the "Elon Musk" thread forever, is that people really seem to think they "know" what Elon thinks or wants or intends at every turn. I see an inordinate number of posts talking about "Elon will" or "Elon believes" or whatever. I'd multi quote them but it would feel a little ad hominem. I just don't know if any of us really has that insight. Really, the posts should be "it seems like Elon.." or "I suspect Elon.." if we're all trying to be honest. And it softens the rhetoric quite a bit because it doesn't feel so cocksure.

I don't think all opinions are equal here when it comes to Elon, though language caveats can be useful. My word choices do reflect my certainty, and I've been interested in human behavior and psychology since I was a kid. I've read several Elon biographies and heard all of his long-form interviews. His movements don't surprise or shock me, and I'm not offended by him. In fact, I've predicted enough behavior around Elon, TSLA, and EVs to know that I have a pretty good handle on human motivations.

I think people who are offended by him don't understand him, not that I agree with everything he does or says, but overall I feel like I understand his thought process. Given that he's a human with fairly obvious and well-stated aspirations, his spectrum-level honesty can be taken on face-value for the most part. People are used to duplicity and deceit, or a polished politician who they suddenly find is a criminal (Former Nissan/Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn) or is a grifter like Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman Fried or Elizabeth Holmes (now with a fresh prison sentence). These people made ALL the right noises to placate their victims and observers until they were found out. Elon has the courage to piss off everyone whilst doing precisely what he said he would do, be that landing boosters on their struts, FSD, popularizing EVs, launching Starlink, or freeing the Bird that is Twitter.

What is Elon's crime? Being too honest or too bold? Too much success? Being too courageous? Being too smart? Too rich? Almost everything I see against Elon is a baseless character attack, and for many his status as a multi-billionaire is a high crime that brings unforgiveable heresy. Elizabeth Holmes and AOC accused Elon of tax-evasion, never apologized when corrected, and Warren and others are trying to urge the FTC to harass or 'investigate' Elon.

Elon is pretty transparent due to that *Asperger's Honesty, but people also invent their own narratives due to their own peculiar political orientation. This too falls within the purview of human psychology lending itself to narratives which fit their ingroup. It's the very basis of religion and culture. This is also why it's easy to predict which groups will be most offended by Elon announcing that he'll vote Republican due to unfair treatment from the far Left. Demographically, it's not hard to see who would be offended by Elon and how they would retaliate.

I've done my due-diligence when it comes to sample data, as much as I can without knowing the guy personally. It was one of the precursors for investing in $TSLA. A lot of people barely need to hear a few choice words from a FUDster to form their 'opinion', which is why any FUD is effective. How else does Gordo get through to those who fall for his narrative against Tesla? Why do low-information voters exist and lack the self-awareness to hide this fact? Why do people spout crazy opinions in public, such as Flat Earth nuttery? Simply having an opinion isn't enough, and the mere existence of an opinion doesn't make it equal with all others.

Anyone surprised by the upheaval and attacks against Elon doesn't understand the Left very well. It may get a little worse before it gets better, but it will get better.

*Asperger's Syndrome is no longer recognized by the DSM V, which is a very Asperger's bit of pedantry.

 

[RationalOptimist]

There's a strange paradox in the panic over Twitter. The people saying oh, the site is going to crash now because of no people forget that the one thing we CAN be pretty confident of with Elon is his engineering chops. Sure there will be glitches... but this as an area he has the talent to fix quickly. It truly doesn't take 7000 or 3000 people to ensure basic operational functionality in today's internet. The ruthlessness with which he has slashed jobs is pretty breathtaking, and definitely not flawless. But there's truly a scenario now where he can operate twitter with 20% of prior costs and grow from here. The single biggest danger is that he scares off a majority of progressives, so that the tone of the site leans ever more rightward. But I don't think this will happen. Twitter is just too powerful a platform. Like CBS, they'll mostly stick.

Regarding content moderation there are also hopeful signs. He's already credited with doing more to tackle child porn than prior regime. And his understanding that freedom of speech does not guarantee freedom of reach is crucial. The tone of the site going forward will depend on the extent to which nastiness is 'deboosted'. I'm v happy that he's committed to that, though the key will be how nastiness is identified.

TLDR: I'm getting increasingly confident he'll pull this off.

 

[Spacep0d]

Then the Twitter buyout became a definite red flag. Another red flag was his announcement that he was only going to vote for the party of "drill baby drill" who want to eliminate electric cars.

Something is not right with Elon. He's running off the rails.

This is just your ideological knee-jerk. How is it a red flag to buy Twitter? Did you not perceive the ideological issues from old Twitter? How about wildly imbalanced 'punishment' for wrongthink? There's a reason he paid 44B for Twitter and it wasn't to mess around with verification and payments. He's got way bigger plans for this which will become apparent in time, even to his detractors.

But see, you've reduced the Republicans to 'drill baby drill'. Do you not count Elon's ideological enemies trying to assassinate his character and ruin his companies, and you think he should vote Left after all of this? Elizabeth Warren and AOC (and others) accused him of being a tax cheat, but he explained how he overpaid in 2017 and didn't have to pay in 2018. Yet, these Leftists didn't apologize (like Mary Barra didn't apologize) and now Warren is trying to ruin Elon via the FTC.

Yet you're upset because he publicly stated that he'd vote Republican going forward. Do you see how you're lacking balance here, and how your view is myopic? Hell, I don't even want to vote Dem anymore after seeing how people are treating Elon, and I voted Dem since I was 18. I think your dataset is skewed by your own ideology, as if there's no reason to avoid voting Dem (even if there are issues with the Right. Believe me, I'm a center-left atheist and the far right worry me too, but I've been very dismayed by the behavior of the Cancel-Culture Left.

Elon is behaving as any reasonable human would when people (especially the Left) are coming for him and seem to lack intellectual honesty and courage.

That said, I obviously disagreed with the 'pedoguy' comment. Low point for Elon, and he needs to do better when he's upset. He's human after all, but overall he's done a helluva lot of good for humanity, from EVs to SpaceX to Starlink and now...or soon....Twitter.