Elon's mind

[Buckminster]

I thought it would be fun (and even useful) to have a thread on what is going on in his bit of the simulation's algorithms. As a starter, his top level decision logic?:

1. Save planet
   1. High risk - need plan B
      1. AI threat etc.
         1. Neurolink
2. Plan B - Move some peeps to Mars
   1. SpaceX
      1. Money required 2030 ish
3. Tesla
   1. Don't go bankwupt
   2. Make serious money 2030
      1. TN
   3. Save planet - see 1.
4. Improve rest of world
   1. Break the system
      1. SEC
      2. Oil advertising money
      3. Pravduh
   2. Boring Co
5. Have fun

Elon is currently focussed on 3.2.1.

 

[Sancho]

1. Accelerate world’s transition to sustainable energy

1.1. Electric cars and trucks
1.2. Solar energy storage
1.3. Solar roofs

2. Improve auto driving and owning experience

2.1. Fast, fun drive
2.2. Safer
2.3 no gas station stops; superchargers
2.4. No car salesmen
2.5. Minimal maintenance ; mobile
2.6. autopilot operation
2.7. auto insurance
2.8. Less congestion (Boring)

3. Robotaxi Network

3.1. FSD software
3.2. Special purpose chip
3.3. Million mile car life

4. Mars colony

4.1. SpaceX

5. Faster intercontinental travel

6. Ubiquitous internet via satellites

7. AI protection

The above list is what is currently on Musk’s plate. I’m excluding what is also on his mind, but he doesn’t seem to be actively solving, like Pravduh, and what he does for fun, like memes.

This is a pretty awesome to-do list, particularly compared to mine:

1. Fix up house
2. Buy groceries
3. Eliminate golf slice

 

[Buggle]

1. Become baller so I can get any chick I want.
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16.5 Save planet, yada yada

I sort of think this is at the top of every highly motivated male's list. It's why basically every president ever has chicks on the side.

 

[Midnight Star]

Good stuff - you should also check out Elon’s master plans for Tesla - that will help you work out what he may be thinking

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

Master Plan, Part Deux

 

[neroden]

I should point out Musk's actual stated motivation: "I'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad"

You can figure out for yourself what cognitive errors he's going to make with this motivation -- I think it's going to permanently lead to excessive optimism, for instance.

 

[Buckminster]

From main thread:

Below is roughly how I think Elon has applied this approach to tackling the climate crisis. Of course every bullet here could have had a multitude of further subdivisions.
When choosing which of these sub-problems to allocate resources to, Elon will make a careful consideration of Tesla's current lead relative to the competition and where Tesla can make the most new ground most quickly. He will also be guided by a Physics First Principles bottom up estimate of the physical limit of each sub-problem so he has an idea how much work is left to do on each task.

View attachment 461345

 

[Buckminster]

This excellent link was sent out on the main thread:

Elon Musk: The World's Raddest Man — Wait But Why

There are 4 parts plus 3 extra posts.

 

[Buckminster]

Rolling Stones on Grimes:
Grimes: Live From the Future

 

[Buckminster]

Elon Musk on Twitter
@KarenRei might be tempted to come back to discuss the theory of everything!

 

[EVDRVN]

Doubt it.

 

[Buckminster]

Is Elon moving to Texas? Announcing the move on battery day in Texas would go down well:

I'm warming to the idea of Elon relocating to Texas, keep in mind my record on this kind of speculation is abysmal.

But the possible things that might be located nearby include:-

• New factory for Model Y and Cybertruck
• Possible factories for Megapack, Tesla Semi.
• Austin chip design
• Austin battery research...
• SpaceX (very important)

Other things they could add include:-

• Tesla HQ
• Software development
• New product development, including HVAC

As well a commute to New York, Nevada and California. is manageable.

From now on I would not be surprised if Elon spends a lot of time working on SpaceX projects, the main Tesla projects that seem interest him as much as SpaceX are IMO, Cybertruck and the new HVAC.

Jerome can manage Fremont...(and travel to Texas to help with the new factory)

I do think with a new baby, Grimes is going to want a nice house, but perhaps they rent initially while they make sure they like living in Texas.

I don't think Fremont will shrink or be relocated, but I would not be surprised if anything new and exciting, increasingly happens in Texas.
Software developers may be given the choice of Fremont or Texas, overtime Tesla can probably close some offices in California relocate to Texas and save money on rents.

Keep in mind I did think they might do an equity raise after Battery Day.,.,..

But there is a good chance Fremont is up and running before Battery Day and a equally strong chance that a motivated, happy, upbeat Elon turns up on Battery Day and announces the location of the new GF.

The Capital Raise will be after the short burn,.... I wish my predictions would come true.. because they sure seem like fun

He hates LA traffic and will really enjoy driving around the state in his Cybertruck.

 

[MC3OZ]

Is Elon moving to Texas? Announcing the move on battery day in Texas would go down well:



He hates LA traffic and will really enjoy driving around the state in his Cybertruck.

People have speculated he might move some part of the Fremont operation to Texas, this comment was in that context.

We may all be reading too much into his tweets.

 

[Buckminster]

I don't see Freemont production moving.

Alternative is that Elon moves around - spending 2 weeks at each location.

 

[MC3OZ]

I also don't see Fremont production moving...

But Tesla has a whole lot of buildings in the area doing things like engineering and software development.

The crash testing lab is an example of something that could move.

 

[wws]

I also don't see Fremont production moving...

Why not? GM, Ford, and Toyota all used to have significant manufacturing presence in the Bay Area. As we all know the GM->NUMI plant is now Tesla. The old Ford plant is now a shopping mall. (Historically, decades ago GM also had a plant in Oakland.)

But Tesla has a whole lot of buildings in the area doing things like engineering and software development.

The crash testing lab is an example of something that could move.

It'd be great to see Tesla build Cybertrucks and Semis in Texas. It is actually where a lot of GMs truck production is as well.

 

[goinfraftw]

"Who cares? You and your team are kicking butt. Go ahead, take my money." - Me.

 

[MC3OZ]

Why not? GM, Ford, and Toyota all used to have significant manufacturing presence in the Bay Area. As we all know the GM->NUMI plant is now Tesla. The old Ford plant is now a shopping mall. (Historically, decades ago GM also had a plant in Oakland.)



It'd be great to see Tesla build Cybertrucks and Semis in Texas. It is actually where a lot of GMs truck production is as well.

IMO why not, is simply spending capital efficiently.. Fremont is a working factory, not much to be gained by moving it.

But there is a lot to be gained in diversifying production locations and the product mix. So as new factories are added Fremont simply becomes one of the factories and increasingly one of the smaller older factories.

(I'm assuming Texas below - just to make it readable)
People have said software developers will not move to Texas and there is great talent in the Bay Area, but iMO Tesla can split software development between the Bay Area and Texas.. Any software that is more routine can be done in Texas.

So IMO the following can be move from Fremont to Texas over say 5-10 years:-

• Some software development.
• Head office, financial and admin.
• Insurance (if any)
• Engineering research
• Product development and design... (perhaps even car design)
• Some parts production
• Crash test lab.
• other offsite R&D labs.

While not moving much of the factory itself there is a lot of off site parts production, R&D, testing and engineering scattered in a number of small sites around the Bay area and elsewhere in California.

The reasons to move are:-

• GF Texas likely to be higher volume than Fremont hence uses more parts.
• More central location for parts distribution
• Close to SpaceX where Elon will be spending a lot of time.
• Some saving in rent, and better coordination achieved by co-location with streamlined logistics.

 

[Boomer19]

elon’s mind thread....18th comment

 

[Buckminster]

From main thread:

Grimes call when to release that info.....EM is probably only afraid of two people...Grimes and Maye

Boy
Twitter
X Æ A-12 Musk
Twitter

Edit: Duplicate of info in @Artful Dodger 's link

Elon and Grimes definitely appear to be arguing. The houses firstly. Secondly, Grimes wanted to keep the sex private. No tweets from Grimes.

Anyone cracked the name? Grimes said this about the name:

On the subject of names, Grimes, who reportedly changed her own to a lowercase 'c' (the measurement for the speed of light in a vacuum) said, “I have a name for the baby, but I don’t want to say what it is because everyone I’ve told it hates it, and everyone’s gonna make fun of it," before adding that she feels the name is just too ahead of its time. “But it is, in fact, a genius name and people just don’t appreciate it yet because it’s too avant-garde.”

 

[MC3OZ]

From main thread:




Elon and Grimes definitely appear to be arguing. The houses firstly. Secondly, Grimes wanted to keep the sex private. No tweets from Grimes.

Anyone cracked the name? Grimes said this about the name:

Elon and Grimes are a unique couple, I don't think any argument they may be having is that serious..

What is more interesting is Elon selling his houses and possessions.
I think he is relocating to Texas and Tesla might do a share offer after Battery Day and Elon might buy a large portion.
Seem to me Elon is really committed to the missions.

With a young baby, Grimes may want a quieter more settled life, I think she will nudge Elon toward home ownership or a long term rental.