End of lease decision P85D help.

[jsimon77]

Hi all…I know there is no right answer here but I’m looking for some advice. The lease on my P85D is up end of March. I’ve loved the car, it's still in perfect condition…it’s been fantastic and I’m excited for my next Tesla which probably will be a 100D BUT…From everything I’ve read, and my gut feeling tells me that some level of a refresh to the model S is on the horizon. 3 months, 6 months, 12 months who knows.


I know that IF I lease a new Model S in March and then the refresh happens shortly thereafter I will be upset so my goal is to try and time it. So I have a few options I’m considering and I’m looking for some guidance.


And yes…I know that Fed $7,500 law change will put a major wrinkle on all of these decisions.


Option 1 – Turn the P85D in in March, order a new Model S to be delivered in March, get to use the $7,500 credit but knowing that I will miss out on the refresh. I looked yesterday and unless I was doing something wrong but the leases seemed to me about ~$200 a month less then when I last looked.


Option 2 – Extend the lease on my P85D up to 6 months and hope by Sept. 2018 the refresh has taken place and order a new one. If not, I can the do option 3 or 4 below.


Option 3 – Turn in my P85D in March, use my Model 3 reservation and either love the Model 3 and keep it or once there is a refreshed Model S available order it and sell the Model 3.


Option 4 – Turn in my P85D and utilize a very short term lease to drive something fun / different for 6-12 months and then get back into the Model S when the refresh happens.


Any ideas and insights will be very much appreciated.


- Jason

 

[DIL]

Option 1 with a twist: Buy a 100D and take the monetary hit to trade it in on a new one if you miss the refresh. This doesn't make much sense if you're being rational, but since you're concerned about missing the refresh (which I understand) you'll have your bases covered. Just don't try and time it.

 

[mkspeedr]

My P85D lease is up in June. I understand. My P85D has been flawless. I don't want to buy a P100D and have a P110D come out the next week with a cool new interior.

My dad has a P100D. It is a great car. So #1 is a good choice. Option #2 is the best gamble.

I will cross my fingers.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Our 85D is up in March also. We just took delivery of our 3. I don't think I'm going to miss the S.

 

[jsimon77]

My P85D lease is up in June. I understand. My P85D has been flawless. I don't want to buy a P100D and have a P110D come out the next week with a cool new interior.

My dad has a P100D. It is a great car. So #1 is a good choice. Option #2 is the best gamble.

I will cross my fingers.

Good thoughts. Kind of where I am as well...although I don't think I'm going to spend the extra money this time on the P version. I love show friends how fast it is but I find myself not really using its ability all that often.

Our 85D is up in March also. We just took delivery of our 3. I don't think I'm going to miss the S.

Keep me posted if you will once you have more time in the Model 3. Interested to hear if this changes or gets stronger over time.

 

[Dublin 'Eer]

I’d monitor swapalease.com to see if there is anything that interests you. If you can find a good car to bridge the gap, that may be your best option.

 

[jsimon77]

I’d monitor swapalease.com to see if there is anything that interests you. If you can find a good car to bridge the gap, that may be your best option.

That's one of why plans for sure. Would you do that in March or extend the least to September and do it them IF there is no refreshed version yet?

 

[demundus]

Hi all…I know there is no right answer here but I’m looking for some advice. The lease on my P85D is up end of March. I’ve loved the car, it's still in perfect condition…it’s been fantastic and I’m excited for my next Tesla which probably will be a 100D BUT…From everything I’ve read, and my gut feeling tells me that some level of a refresh to the model S is on the horizon. 3 months, 6 months, 12 months who knows.


I know that IF I lease a new Model S in March and then the refresh happens shortly thereafter I will be upset so my goal is to try and time it. So I have a few options I’m considering and I’m looking for some guidance.


And yes…I know that Fed $7,500 law change will put a major wrinkle on all of these decisions.


Option 1 – Turn the P85D in in March, order a new Model S to be delivered in March, get to use the $7,500 credit but knowing that I will miss out on the refresh. I looked yesterday and unless I was doing something wrong but the leases seemed to me about ~$200 a month less then when I last looked.


Option 2 – Extend the lease on my P85D up to 6 months and hope by Sept. 2018 the refresh has taken place and order a new one. If not, I can the do option 3 or 4 below.


Option 3 – Turn in my P85D in March, use my Model 3 reservation and either love the Model 3 and keep it or once there is a refreshed Model S available order it and sell the Model 3.


Option 4 – Turn in my P85D and utilize a very short term lease to drive something fun / different for 6-12 months and then get back into the Model S when the refresh happens.


Any ideas and insights will be very much appreciated.


- Jason

Depending on your money factor and residuals, perhaps you can outright buy the car for something that makes sense and drive it until the "unknown" becomes known.

Else, option 2 seems like a better bet, perhaps a renegotiation of the lease or another bank would be willing to bring the terms down to help make it pencil even more.

 

[sandpiper]

Hi all…I know there is no right answer here but I’m looking for some advice. The lease on my P85D is up end of March. I’ve loved the car, it's still in perfect condition…it’s been fantastic and I’m excited for my next Tesla which probably will be a 100D BUT…From everything I’ve read, and my gut feeling tells me that some level of a refresh to the model S is on the horizon. 3 months, 6 months, 12 months who knows.


I know that IF I lease a new Model S in March and then the refresh happens shortly thereafter I will be upset so my goal is to try and time it. So I have a few options I’m considering and I’m looking for some guidance.


And yes…I know that Fed $7,500 law change will put a major wrinkle on all of these decisions.


Option 1 – Turn the P85D in in March, order a new Model S to be delivered in March, get to use the $7,500 credit but knowing that I will miss out on the refresh. I looked yesterday and unless I was doing something wrong but the leases seemed to me about ~$200 a month less then when I last looked.


Option 2 – Extend the lease on my P85D up to 6 months and hope by Sept. 2018 the refresh has taken place and order a new one. If not, I can the do option 3 or 4 below.


Option 3 – Turn in my P85D in March, use my Model 3 reservation and either love the Model 3 and keep it or once there is a refreshed Model S available order it and sell the Model 3.


Option 4 – Turn in my P85D and utilize a very short term lease to drive something fun / different for 6-12 months and then get back into the Model S when the refresh happens.


Any ideas and insights will be very much appreciated.


- Jason

I'm in the exact same position, except my lease is a few months earlier - January. I chose to extend it 6 months. If, after 6 months, there is no significant update, I'll likely buy the car out, and then wait for refresh to trade.

I really hope it refreshes before fall. A 100+ battery would be really nice in the cold.

 

[sandpiper]

Our 85D is up in March also. We just took delivery of our 3. I don't think I'm going to miss the S.

Really? Interesting. Specifically why?

 

[Zorg]

Option 2 for sure. By September, the federal will be phasing out, but not completely, so you won't be losing out much.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Really? Interesting. Specifically why?

Smaller, nimbler, better build quality, easier to park, feels more premium in materials and design. We shall see if that wears off

 

[sandpiper]

Smaller, nimbler, better build quality, easier to park, feels more premium in materials and design. We shall see if that wears off

Really? Smaller, nimbler, parking certainly. That's a buyer preference. Build quality and premium "feel" surprises me.

That's great for Tesla, but it's going to put even more pressure on the S team to up their game. Hopefully it's sooner rather than later.

 

[jsimon77]

Really? Smaller, nimbler, parking certainly. That's a buyer preference. Build quality and premium "feel" surprises me.

That's great for Tesla, but it's going to put even more pressure on the S team to up their game. Hopefully it's sooner rather than later.

I would have to imagine that Tesla is very worried about cannibalizing the Model S buyer. The fact that I'm even thinking about it should worry them. My brother just got his Model 3 and I'll tell you it's very very nice and not as small as I thought it would be. So that is why I'm thinking it will be refreshed soon. I get the desire for longer range battery although for me it's not about that as much as it's about interior fit and finish and newness.

 

[mkspeedr]

The model 3 will cannibalize some model S sales but a well done interior update with 350 miles of range would make even a bigger dent in the European car sales.

Then the biggest problem is building them fast enough.

 

[sandpiper]

I would have to imagine that Tesla is very worried about cannibalizing the Model S buyer. The fact that I'm even thinking about it should worry them. My brother just got his Model 3 and I'll tell you it's very very nice and not as small as I thought it would be. So that is why I'm thinking it will be refreshed soon. I get the desire for longer range battery although for me it's not about that as much as it's about interior fit and finish and newness.

For me it's both. If they dropped a 110D with a new interior today, I'd be on the phone with them right now. I'm not one to turnover cars every year, and so I really don't want the tail end of an old model.

 

[zer0cool]

Maybe buy a nice pre-owned car for transition. There are some late luxury models that have depreciated but are still very nice that you can use as a transition for a year or so until the next Model S comes out.

I agree with many comments that the Model S no longer looks attractive as the Model 3 comes out. Even ICE competitions like the 2019 Audi A7 on the lower end and Porsche Panamera on the higher end are beginning to look better and have potentially superior technology. The next gen Model S needs to make some large improvements in interior and update its technology and UI systems (and of course nice exterior). I trust Elon being able to make an amazing next gen product given what we have seen with the Model 3.

 

[freeewilly]

I pick option 3. You get to try a different Tesla, you can wait as long as you want for the refreshed Model S. When you decide to sell the Model 3, the resell value will be extremely good within the next year.

 

[sakimano]

Just buy out your P85D. Drive it for another year or so until you see what's happening. Newer model S aren't much (if at all) better than your car.

You probably have a good chunk of equity in it. Buyout on these cars are pretty low. When the time comes trade it in on the new version if it exists.

 

[BrokerDon]

Questions for each of the P85D owners whose lease expire this year.

1. What is your lease buyout number?
2. What was the original "sticker" price?
3. How many miles on your P85D?
4. Does your P85D have Ludicrous?