EU Market Situation and Outlook

[kenliles]

You guys have to be patient b4 seeing more Teslas on the autobahns. Its like tryin to sell cheese in Switzerland or France.

I see you're point and it's valid; but the ICE machine was started in the US and more engrained here than anywhere in the world. If we can do it, anybody can. We're sell more trucks than cheese over here
Now if we were selling Beer, that might prove difficult (just messin' with ya)

 

[dirkhh]

Instead of trying to rehash the same arguments here, please take a look at Europeanizing needed for the Model S
I strongly disagree that (regarding sales in Germany) "with more superchargers to come the sales numbers of model s will go up significantly". There's a lot more work to be done to make the Model S attractive to more high end German buyers.
Yes, the investment in super chargers makes sense as Germany is at the heart of Europe and many important transit routes cross through Germany.
But even if Tesla opens a store in every city with more than 50k people, that still doesn't mean that they will see thousands of cars sold.
So yes, 32no, I am telling you that Elon is overly optimistic when it comes to the German market and that he will continue to be disappointed by the numbers he'll get from Germany.
And all the people here who keep talking about the "soon to come massive upswing in sales in Germany" (my words, trying to characterize a sentiment) have yet to show any data that they are right - whereas I and several others have shown plenty of data to indicate that Germany will be a very tough market.

 

[RobStark]

I see you're point and it's valid; but the ICE machine was started in the US and more engrained here than anywhere in the world.

Many a German will tell you the ICE machine was started by Mercedes Benz and no less ingrained in Germany than the US.

How quickly did American drivers switch from Cadillac and Lincoln to Mercedes and BMW?

Relative to early Tesla projections over performance in China will more than make-up for under performance in Germany.

 

[dirkhh]

Let's look at some data, comparing EU countries, their GDP and their Model S sales:

Country	Norway	Netherlands	Germany	Switzerland	Belgium	Denmark	Austria	France	Sweden
Model S sold	4584	1521	548	362	339	238	105	95	95
GDP Billion USD	516	801	3590	646	507	324	418	2739	552
cars per $B GDP	8.88	1.90	0.15	0.56	0.67	0.73	0.25	0.03	0.17

I think that's a reasonable stab at comparing - sales in Europe started at about the same time.

Tesla sales in China or the US are much harder to compare since they have been around much longer / shorter.

Just for kicks, let's look just as Q1 sales (which is what I have data for)

	USA	Norway	Netherlands	Germany	Switzerland	Belgium	Denmark	Austria	France	Sweden
Q1	3300	2056	207	239	133	136	111	39	58	34
cars per $B GDP	0.20	3.98	0.26	0.07	0.21	0.27	0.34	0.09	0.02	0.06

That's maybe somewhat comparable, but I'd have more caveats here - sales are somewhat established in all markets listed, the pipeline has started to fill (yes, Q2 might look better for Europe, so I'll be happy to update this in a month), but overall the expectation would be that the delivery / demand ratio is reasonably comparable.

What stands out? Well, Norway clearly is an absolute outlier. The rest seems to be at about a 0.2 cars/$B GDP - Germany is a third of that.

So this uses available data - I'm sure that there are several grounds on which one could challenge the logic, but given the Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland (with no EV incentives) are trending ahead of the US, I'd say that Germany being quite a bit behind is significant.

 

[kenliles]

Many a German will tell you the ICE machine was started by Mercedes Benz and no less ingrained in Germany than the US.

and they'd be largely right to tell me that. Although culturally ingrained on a mass basis, I'm not sure I wouldn't win that one; but arguable I'm sure. We did have an advantage of vast distances making the desire that much greater

How quickly did American drivers switch from Cadillac and Lincoln to Mercedes and BMW?

Good point- it took a long time (at least relative to this conversation's topic); which I believe is a point in favor of my position; If we can do it.. so can our German friends

Relative to early Tesla projections over performance in China will more than make-up for under performance in Germany.

I agree- In fact, I see a slow German uptake as strategically important - any rapid adoption by Germany puts US, China, UK markets more at risk of under-providing to the detriment of those markets. Let the German market follow and naturally stagger itself further out when production is better equipped.

 

[schonelucht]

Country	Norway	Netherlands	Germany	Switzerland	Belgium	Denmark	Austria	France	Sweden
Model S sold	4584	1521	548	362	339	238	105	95	95
GDP Billion USD	516	801	3590	646	507	324	418	2739	552
cars per $B GDP	8.88	1.90	0.15	0.56	0.67	0.73	0.25	0.03	0.17

Interesting way to look at sales. Another obvious observation from this table is how much France is lagging. While it doesn't incentivize EVs a lot, it does have very cheap electricity. It ties in with how France is really being neglected by Tesla. No superchargers there for example (which would suit the rest of Europe more than superchargers in Germany over the summer). Despite there being a core of wealthy citizens both along the French Riviera and around Paris who could afford a model S. I've always wondered about that.

 

[RobStark]

Another obvious observation from this table is how much France is lagging. While it doesn't incentivize EVs a lot, it does have very cheap electricity. It ties in with how France is really being neglected by Tesla. No superchargers there for example (which would suit the rest of Europe more than superchargers in Germany over the summer). Despite there being a core of wealthy citizens both along the French Riviera and around Paris who could afford a model S.

Belgium has been equally neglected by Tesla(no Superchargers) yet sales are far higher than France. Maybe Dutch speaking Flanders has far higher sales than French speaking Wallonia ? Maybe Tesla expected far higher resistance in France or shall we say Chauvinism?

Interesting that primarily German speaking Switzerland has far higher sales per than Germany. Even German speaking Austria has far higher sales per than Germany. Could it be that consumers in these smaller countries are not as attached to the national brand? Speed limits in Austria are 81 mph and in Switzerland 75 mph. But even less autobahn capable BMW i3 is doing better in Germany than Model S.

 

[Alfred]

Belgium has been equally neglected by Tesla(no Superchargers) yet sales are far higher than France. Maybe Dutch speaking Flanders has far higher sales than French speaking Wallonia ? Maybe Tesla expected far higher resistance in France or shall we say Chauvinism?

Interesting that primarily German speaking Switzerland has far higher sales per than Germany. Even German speaking Austria has far higher sales per than Germany. Could it be that consumers in these smaller countries are not as attached to the national brand? Speed limits in Austria are 81 mph and in Switzerland 75 mph. But even less autobahn capable BMW i3 is doing better in Germany than Model S.

Indeed, Switzerland is often used as a test market as there is no local car industry. Otherwise the explanation is simple: Representation is currently in the center of Zurich and their service center is in nearby Winterthur. Basel has just been opened recently and Western Switzerland will follow soon. Remember also that deliveries only started in September last. Keep in mind that the Model S is a very large car on our roads and parking spots. Sales will therefore be constrained to this large car market, where it does very well so far.

We are a long way from steady-state marketing. Until a denser network of service points is up and running you will not see sales moving ahead in the western and southern parts of Switzerland or for that matter in Germany. No one is keen on driving hundreds of km on congested motorways just to have the car serviced. A frequent question I get is: And where do I have to go for servicing?

 

[SebastianR]

Interesting that primarily German speaking Switzerland has far higher sales per than Germany. Even German speaking Austria has far higher sales per than Germany. Could it be that consumers in these smaller countries are not as attached to the national brand? Speed limits in Austria are 81 mph and in Switzerland 75 mph. But even less autobahn capable BMW i3 is doing better in Germany than Model S.

Careful with the i3 Numbers: they include dealer registrations to my knowledge. How many? No idea. And we should be careful not to make that an excuse for weak Tesla performance.

I think the attachment to national brands is one key element of the problem. The other is the way company cars are handled: typically if you are entitled to a company car, you go to one of the outsourced dealers who will have a range of options from Audi, BMW to Mercedes and Porsche. If you don't get a foot into that door, forget that market segment in Germany: most 5-Series BMW, E-Class Mercedes and A6 Audi are company cars that are not bought individually but through a long term agreement with the company you work at.

 

[Fast Laner]

the i3 Numbers do include dealer registrations.

The company orders these cars to the wishes of the upper and middle management and let's them drive these company cars, services and fuels them and pays the taxes on these cars, decreases the company's revenue by the money spent and thus saves taxes.

 

[Auzie]

The other is the way company cars are handled: typically if you are entitled to a company car, you go to one of the outsourced dealers who will have a range of options from Audi, BMW to Mercedes and Porsche. If you don't get a foot into that door, forget that market segment in Germany: most 5-Series BMW, E-Class Mercedes and A6 Audi are company cars that are not bought individually but through a long term agreement with the company you work at.

Similar situation in Australia. Often there are restrictions on employees regarding choosing a car for lease. Employees can choose from a list of approved models. The market for "company cars" is significant.

On the other side, businesses with significant fleets (say hundreds and thousands of company cars) are sensitive to fuel costs. These high fuel consumption volumes and costs are often targeted by business's sustainability strategy. That may be Tesla's opportunity to enter this space.

 

[Robert.Boston]

A frequent question I get is: And where do I have to go for servicing?

The answer: Tesla Rangers come to you. I try to schedule service when I'm off on business travel. Tesla picks up the car, does the needful, and returns it. The only thing I see is that I have a freshly washed car on my return.

 

[Auzie]

The answer: Tesla Rangers come to you. I try to schedule service when I'm off on business travel. Tesla picks up the car, does the needful, and returns it. The only thing I see is that I have a freshly washed car on my return.

Sorry for being ot, but how often is the service and what is serviced?

 

[VolkerP]

Sorry for being ot, but how often is the service and what is serviced?

all answered here: Tesla Service | Tesla Motors

 

[Yggdrasill]

I suspect that the total for April and May in Europe will be close to 1100, leaving 2300 for March. I'm not sure whether March was an anomaly, or something that we will be seeing again. I saw your post about China having a frenzy-like delivery rate, which makes me less sure that Europe will be the same as in March. If there are 1000 deliveries in China in Q2, and 3400 for Europe, that leaves 3100+ for the US (which seems about right). I don't see 2000 cars in China given the information that you provided, but 1500 is certainly possible. It seems that there are about 500 cars that are either going to China (to make the total 1500) or to Europe (to make the total 3400). I PM'ed the guy who initially mentioned the delivery frenzy in Norway (towards the end of March) to ask whether he has anything about this month yet.

Some figures were posted at the Norwegian EV forum. 202 so far this month, 113 in the past three days; so we're definitely starting to see movement. If we assume 35 registered each weekday until the end of the month, we're looking at a total of 587. If assume the rate increases to 100 per day for the last 10 days of June, we're looking at 1377. So, anything is possible.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Sorry for being ot, but how often is the service and what is serviced?

In addition to the scheduled service noted above, there are also a few times a year I have them do something. At a minimum, they swap the winter/summer wheels (for free, because I bought both sets from Tesla). My early-VIN car had an issue with the door handles and a stress-fractured windscreen. I've never paid Tesla for any service, although I did buy the 8-year ranger service owing to my distance from the service center (100 to 170 miles, depending on the season).

 

[Auzie]

In addition to the scheduled service noted above, there are also a few times a year I have them do something. At a minimum, they swap the winter/summer wheels (for free, because I bought both sets from Tesla). My early-VIN car had an issue with the door handles and a stress-fractured windscreen. I've never paid Tesla for any service, although I did buy the 8-year ranger service owing to my distance from the service center (100 to 170 miles, depending on the season).

Thanks Robert and VolkerP.

A frequent question I get is: And where do I have to go for servicing?

It seems to me that replacing brake pads, windshield vipers and wheels swap could be done by any car service center. Door handles and windscreen could be warranty issues. Not sure what is Tesla policy regarding non Tesla car service centers working on Tesla cars.

 

[Alfred]

The answer: Tesla Rangers come to you. I try to schedule service when I'm off on business travel. Tesla picks up the car, does the needful, and returns it. The only thing I see is that I have a freshly washed car on my return.

To Robert: This new model of Service is not trusted. It is not the regular service that is the issue. When will he come? Next week perhaps, some time? A new concept has to prove itself before it is accepted.

 

[pz1975]

To Robert: This new model of Service is not trusted. It is not the regular service that is the issue. When will he come? Next week perhaps, some time? A new concept has to prove itself before it is accepted.

I can only speak for my own personal experience but I have never seen a company with better customer service skills than Tesla. I've had to use the Ranger service 3 times since buying my Model S in September and each time they have surpassed my expectations in terms of timing and effort to make things as convenient as possible for me. None of my issues have been major (sunroof rattle, parking sensor pushed in, install the battery shield), but a Ranger has come to either fix it where I am (home or work) or take my car in and leave me a loaner within 2 days. Both time s I had a loaner they were back within 48 hours with my car. They also never try to sell you more service than what your car needs like every other car manufacturer's dealer service does.

One of my biggest hopes for Tesla is that they maintain this amazing customer service as they grow bigger.

 

[Robert.Boston]

To Robert: This new model of Service is not trusted. It is not the regular service that is the issue. When will he come? Next week perhaps, some time? A new concept has to prove itself before it is accepted.

Not trusted by whom? Read the rest of these forums; there isn't an active thread complaining about poor Ranger service. That's for a good reason: the system works, and works well. You're right, trust has to be earned. But it's fairly clear from the lack of systematic complaints that the experience of 25,000 owners with Tesla's service & rangers has been positive--not without some growing pains, but these seem mostly to relate to the hard-to-get loaners.

You say it's not "regular service" that's the problem, so are suggesting that you think it's emergency service that will be problematic? I've only had one experience here, and it was amazingly good. My (early-VIN) inverter just stopped working; the car messaged me, and I pulled safely over. I called Tesla, they sent a flatbed truck promptly, and we all went off to the Service Center. There, I was handed the keys to a loaner Model S, and the following day my car was back in my driveway, with the loaner returned.

I'm sure not every interaction with Tesla service will be this amazingly good, but so far, so good.