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EU Market Situation and Outlook

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by SteveG3, Mar 25, 2014.

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  1. mrco

    mrco Member

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    February numbers looking very disappointing in Europe. I guess other OEMs actually trying to sell their EVs is having some effect on Tesla.
     
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  2. Compton

    Compton Supporting Member

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    #3642 Compton, Mar 3, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
    The cars have not yet arrived over the pond in significant numbers. What are they supposed to sell? Cardboard images of the cars?
     
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  3. mrco

    mrco Member

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    They managed to get lots of cars over the pond on each of the previous 2nd months of the quarter. It could be that they’re allocating production elsewhere but that makes no sense with China plant now producing and US demand usually quieter in early part of the year. And at least in the UK, the model 3 order wait time has been pretty consistent so feels more like demand is the issue rather than a supply problem (Coronavirus was too late to effect Feb cars in Europe).
     
  4. Brunel

    Brunel Member

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    At least 2 ships were delayed by the storms in February. One has just been unloading in Southampton and lorry loads heading up the motorways in the UK (delayed into Zeebrugge and then onward transport to UK, so both mainland and UK affected).
     
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  5. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    Have you seen Germany or UK? EDIT: Germany just posted 685. That's much stronger than November, supporting the "Q4 starvation in favor of the Netherlands" thesis. It is down from last February when there was a lot of pent-up demand.

    There's a report of 1024 Model 3s in France, which is a huge number for month 2. The smaller countries are a a mixed bag. Austria and Italy were strong, Switzerland and Sweden weak, etc.

    We knew the Netherlands would be way down (I said down 80-90% from Q4, though KarenRei and others vehemently disagreed). Norway is the interesting one. New car shipments didn't arrive there until the last day of February. We'll see if March really takes off, but IMHO Tesla will lose a lot of market share in Norway this year. I could see ~10k sales this year vs. 18.8k last year.
     
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  6. mrco

    mrco Member

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    Agree about Norway and March confirms it, e-Tron outselling Model 3 even in March (as well as smashing it for Q1). E-Tron launched at the same time as M3. Why anyone would pay that money for the c200 mile range is beyond me but the Norwegians seem to be getting a bit bored of Tesla.
     
  7. avoigt

    avoigt Active Member

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    4F9B7797-EC4E-4EC9-BBDA-6A137820E19B.png
     
  8. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

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    Audi outsold Tesla in March in Norway, as @mrco said. Telsa won big in March in NL and SP because Audi sold very few e-Trons there this quarter.
     
  9. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Supporting Member

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    What are the actual sales numbers? Sorry, not seeing the post (was it by someone on ignore?).

     
  10. mrco

    mrco Member

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  11. mrco

    mrco Member

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    In fact the last time Tesla sold so few cars in a quarter in Norway was q2 2017. And now they have a much cheaper product on sale, and the proportion of plug-in sales is much higher.
    Like it or not, there is now real competition for Tesla in Europe. OEMs need the EV sales in order to avoid fines, are advertising the cars and are incentivising their dealers to sell them.
    I think H2 2019 gave a false impression of demand in Europe as was driven by Netherlands subsidy changes and only Tesla had the EV production capacity to meet that. But exactly why Tesla is doing so badly in Norway in particular, I have no idea.
     
  12. Cobos

    Cobos S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017

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    I really question why e-tron sells so well here as well.
    Audi generally has a good reputation here, and was selling well before. They make a premium product, i.e. the doors make the right sound when you close them and stuff like that.
    Tesla was the only long range family car for a long time, and due to low speeds the e-tron get's you to your cabin, where you charge and then gets you back on Sunday.
    Model 3 sold a big lot last year so they might have saturated the market a bit. Tesla has had serious issues with service capacity and quality on the month 3 of the quarter deliveries. So Tesla's are high priced product with a very low class service at times.
    The dollar cost 5.5NOK when Tesla sold it's first Model S here in 2013 now it's at 10.4NOK, while the Euro has only increased about 20-40%. So a Model S 85 cost as much as a M3P costs now so that also strongly influences how much value you get.
    Not the least Norway used to be a solid 80% of the market as station wagons and 20% sedans, that's 10 % station wagons, 70% crossovers/small SUVS/whatever they call it and 20% sedans now.

    That's the reasons I can think of, but maybe someone else that knows the Norwegian market can elaborate or add some more reasons?
     
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  13. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Supporting Member

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    I'd throw in the fact that model Y is in production. The anticipation probably osbourned the model 3 in Norway.

    Edit: Yup! The model 3 is the ONLY sedan, until you get to the corolla! Hatchbacks and SUV's all in the top X in sales. This sales slump is just temporary.
     
  14. Cobos

    Cobos S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017

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    Actually the Corolla in Norway is the shape of a Golf or a Polo. Which is a small hatchback I think it’s called. Or a station wagon it seems. Look here:
    Toyota Corolla 5-dørs Active 5d | En ny tid
     
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  15. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Supporting Member

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    Oh! Well that makes the model 3's sales position even more impressive! That's like selling ice to eskimos!
     
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  16. Cobos

    Cobos S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017

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    Yes the Y should sell well here, especially if oil price is up. That usually means the NOK strengthens and the price goes down here in Norway. Or rather they do deals like they did before with 0.5% interest instead of lowering the price of the car. Which is nice as it maintains the second hand value of the car.
     
  17. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Allowing myself to cross-post @Chocochip ´s post from the roundtable thread as it fits here even better:

    Didn´t know the part of Tesla not joining SMMT and that being the reason they are not mentioned by name in the reports.
     
  18. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    Towing. Tesla needs a tow hitch on Model 3 or better Model Y.
     
  19. Cobos

    Cobos S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017

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    Actually both the Model 3 in Europe and the e-Tron can tow, 910kg and 1800kg respectively.
    As most towing in Norway is not a boat, but lighter aluminum trailers with maybe 2-300kg I dare say Model 3's towing capacity is OK. So that's not it. And both the e-tron and the 3 can do skiboxes.
     
    • Informative x 1
  20. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Tesla plans to resume production in Fremont on May 4 per email leaked to electrek: Tesla announces pay cuts, furloughs, and aims to get back to production by May 4 - Electrek

    This would mean 6 weeks downtime for Fremont. That would be the time when usually cars for Europe would be produced and shipped. But if I remember correctly shipping takes about two weeks SFO to Zeebrugge (need to add some time for production and distribution) so they have a small time window of a few weeks left plus the cars they were not able to deliver in March due to corona. @Troy
     

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