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Tesla will not be #1 in Europe this year. Model 3 should be the best selling single model and Tesla overall should beat Renault (excluding Kangoo panel van). But Tesla won't catch VW Group. I estimate Tesla Europe will end 2020 at 90-95k. VW should hit 150k BEVs plus maybe 50k PHEVs.By end of September Tesla will be #1 and when 2020 totals come in Tesla should be #1 by a large margin.
There's no need for this in China. Something like 95% of sales are within 1600 km of Shanghai, with the vast majority less than 1100 km. I'm sure they tweak deliveries the final week to reduce cars in transit, but Shanghai customers don't have to wait until EOQ like US west coasters.Same for Chinese deliveries. Even MiC Model 3s. China is as big geographically as the US and Tesla only has one factory in China. At the beginning of the quarter Tesla sends MiC Model 3s to customers farthest from Shanghai and delivers to Shanghai customers last.
Tesla will not be #1 in Europe this year. Model 3 should be the best selling single model and Tesla overall should beat Renault (excluding Kangoo panel van). But Tesla won't catch VW Group. I estimate Tesla Europe will end 2020 at 90-95k. VW should hit 150k BEVs plus maybe 50k PHEVs.
There's no need for this in China. Something like 95% of sales are within 1600 km of Shanghai, with the vast majority less than 1100 km. I'm sure they tweak deliveries the final week to reduce cars in transit, but Shanghai customers don't have to wait until EOQ like US west coasters.
Tesla will be #1 in Europe this year.
Just a general question for those who have more expertise in this than me. If Europe is ahead of the US in adopting EVs, then is it reasonable look at trends there as a relevant indicator of future Tesla's EV market share in the US? More specifically, there are increasing numbers of relevant EV competitors in Europe that will be coming here in the next year or so. There's been a sense these competitors won't be serious competition because of range, software features, self driving, etc. However, in Europe, where Tesla was the main player previously, Tesla's market share has dropped precipitously as these newer models have become available. In addition, how long will these differences (e.g., range) really be a factor, so that there will be really competitive viable competitors?
I recommend merging this thread with EU Market Situation and Outlook.Just a general question for those who have more expertise in this than me. If Europe is ahead of the US in adopting EVs, then is it reasonable look at trends there as a relevant indicator of future Tesla's EV market share in the US? More specifically, there are increasing numbers of relevant EV competitors in Europe that will be coming here in the next year or so. There's been a sense these competitors won't be serious competition because of range, software features, self driving, etc. However, in Europe, where Tesla was the main player previously, Tesla's market share has dropped precipitously as these newer models have become available. In addition, how long will these differences (e.g., range) really be a factor, so that there will be really competitive viable competitors?
There is also a big difference in minimum range requirements and size of car between most of Europe and the US. Not to mention most high end cars are company cars here while not so much in the US.Just a general question for those who have more expertise in this than me. If Europe is ahead of the US in adopting EVs, then is it reasonable look at trends there as a relevant indicator of future Tesla's EV market share in the US? More specifically, there are increasing numbers of relevant EV competitors in Europe that will be coming here in the next year or so. There's been a sense these competitors won't be serious competition because of range, software features, self driving, etc. However, in Europe, where Tesla was the main player previously, Tesla's market share has dropped precipitously as these newer models have become available. In addition, how long will these differences (e.g., range) really be a factor, so that there will be really competitive viable competitors?
And we have Q2 numbers available:Hi everybody. We have the official registration numbers for the UK for Q1 2020. You can download the data HERE. This is the smaller file that shows the table you see below. If you want to see the trim levels too, you can download the larger file HERE.
Because the official numbers are released late, we use estimates in the meantime. The estimate we were using for Q1 2020 was 5,722 units. That's only 22 units off.
- 5,367 Model 3 (I assumed the 2 car listed as 'model missing' are Model 3)
- 155 Model S
- 178 Model X
- 5,700 in total
The UK releases only quarterly numbers instead of monthly. Therefore we use SMMT numbers (the same source we use for estimates) to split the quarterly numbers into monthly. This method is explained HERE in case you are interested. The numbers in orange show the monthly split that was calculated from the official quarterly numbers.
Norway was starved of supply, with most cars going to other countries in the EU, and UK. Now with China Model 3 shipping to EU, Norway got supply again. There was never a demand problem in Norway.So what happened in Norway this month? https://teslastats.no/.
I thought the story was that Tesla was suffering badly this year with market share because of all the new BEV competition. But they’re going to have the best month since March19 which was the initial rush of first deliveries. Have they now realised that M3 is the best choice after all or is there something else going on?