EU Market Situation and Outlook

[schonelucht]

Answering my own question earlier : Tesla is indeed deferring supercharger revenue and recognizing it gradually over the period of expected service. From the latest quarterly filing under Revenue Recognition

As of June 30, 2014, we had deferred $35.0 million, $18.3 million and $7.3 million related to the purchase of vehicle maintenance and service plans, access to our Supercharger network and Model S connectivity, respectively.

Another refinement on my earlier numbers : in June, they delivered 1GWh through the superchargers. At that time around 100 sites were active so it's 10MWh per site. Again taking the average of 40 kWh per charge this leaves us with 250 visits per site or about 8 per day throughout June. Just a bit lower than my estimated 10 visits but not a bad guess if I may say so. With these numbers I am quite confident that the electricity cost to run one supercharger site in Europe are around $1300 per month.

 

[RobStark]

BEV European Sales

July 2014 YTD​

Nissan Leaf 1,063 8,145
Tesla Model S 398 5,838
BMW i3 768 5,688
Volkswagen e-up! 578 4,076
Smart Fortwo 226 1,364


i3 includes both BEV and Rex​

 

[Norse]

Government sources claims that Norway will not impose duties in EVs. This is pretty important since the model S sells a lot of cars in Norway, but it also sends a signal to the rest of the world.

- Ikke moms på elbiler - Elbil - VG (Norwegian)

 

[RobStark]

Government sources claims that Norway will not impose duties in EVs. This is pretty important since the model S sells a lot of cars in Norway, but it also sends a signal to the rest of the world.

- Ikke moms på elbiler - Elbil - VG (Norwegian)

This article is regarding a value added tax(VAT) on EVs correct?

No VAT through 2016 but maybe a VAT starting in 2017?

 

[Norse]

This article is regarding a value added tax(VAT) on EVs correct?

No VAT through 2016 but maybe a VAT starting in 2017?

Yes, so we norwegian has some work a head of us as 2017 is election year, and believe me, taxes will matter. It is also clear that it will not increase by a lot when it eventually happen. It is suggested 8% increase each year.
Two years ago no one in Norway spoke publicly about leaving the oil in the ground. Now we do, and I think we can thank Elon Musk for that. I even know a guy who is leaving his oil job with a annual salary of $150 000 because he is convinced about the climate change.
The awareness grows every day, and hopefully we will se no taxes on EVs in Norway when the model 3 launches. Especially since my family will be buying 5 of them.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The phase-in of VAT has been rumoured to be like this:

2016: 8% VAT
2017: 12% VAT
2018: 16% VAT
2019: 20% VAT (My own extrapolation)
2020: 25% VAT (My own extrapolation)

Long term, I think the potential for Tesla in Norway is big, even with taxes. With 16% VAT, a Model 3 would cost about as much as VW Golf and similar cars. And with an average fuel saving of around $1300/year, you wouldn't need to plan on keeping the car for very long before the Model 3 would be significantly cheaper. Even with 25% VAT, the fuel savings would mean that a Model 3 would break even compared to a Golf in 2-3 years.

And of course, the Model 3 should be a lot more car for one's money. The cheapest Golfs here have either a 90 hp diesel engine or an 85 hp gas engine. Upgrading the engine is fairly expensive. (Going from the 85 hp gas engine to a 105 hp gas engine adds $4.500 to the price. Going up from 105 hp to 122 hp adds another $3.500. Going from 122 hp to 184 hp adds another $16.000.)

It wouldn't surprise me if Tesla could sell at least 15k Model 3 in Norway each year. Adding 5k Model S/X, would mean that Tesla would have a ~15% market share, and would be the largest car company in Norway (closely followed by VW and Toyota).

 

[Mario Kadastik]

There were four new Model S registrations in Estonia in August. Just in case someone's gathering the statistics

 

[blakegallagher]

I hear President Obama is heading to Estonia today to assure them that if Russia attacked they would be defended. I heard this on US Public Radio I was curious if this was getting much airtime on the TVs in radio in Estonia and in the greater EU area.

 

[mostapasta]

First pass for August registrations:

 

[hileyms]

First pass for August registrations:
View attachment 58247

It was reported UK Deliveries - Page 5 #49 that about 200 had been delivered in the UK by end of July. I have tried to get detailed figures for the by month but nothing so far.

 

[matbl]

First pass for August registrations:
View attachment 58247

Swedish number is totally wrong. Something went wrong with the statistics reporting for august.

 

[mostapasta]

Thanks matbl, I'll keep watching to see if they update the statistic!

 

[schonelucht]

The Netherlands : 70 Model S sales in August (129 in May, 5 in August 2013). (Source : BOVAG)

 

[matbl]

Thanks matbl, I'll keep watching to see if they update the statistic!

No they won't. But another source which actually uses the official registration database says 21 for Sweden for August.

 

[matbl]

This certainly won't help sales in Germany:
Elektroautos: 6 Modelle im Härtetest - AUTO MOTOR UND SPORT
(Use google translate to get reasonably understandable english)

Maybe some German-speaking can question their results in the comments for the article?

 

[dirkhh]

The article appears well researched and offers data based on empirical tests.
I can't see anything where I could say "you got that wrong".
Yes, motor performance craters under heat. And you can't really drive the car hard at German speed. They tested at a very slow 75mp/h which is actually being generous... That's not the typical speed purple in 100kEUR cats tend to drive.
So besides fan-boy-ism... What would you want to criticize?

 

[Newb]

This certainly won't help sales in Germany:
Elektroautos: 6 Modelle im Härtetest - AUTO MOTOR UND SPORT
(Use google translate to get reasonably understandable english)

Maybe some German-speaking can question their results in the comments for the article?

This "test" and related articles have been called "AMSgate" here in Germany and it already got an appropriate reaction from the upset EV community.

See here:
http://e-auto.tv/amsgate-eine-chronik.html

http://e-auto.tv/reichweite-von-elektroautos-im-praxistest.html

"Autobild" and "Auto-Motor-Sport" have always been sceptics of EVs in general and non-Volkswagen EVs in specific. "Die Welt" also have joined the anti-Tesla campaign (most recently they published this over-negative article: Tesla Model S im Test : Beim dritten Gasstoß fängt das Schwächeln an - Nachrichten Motor - DIE WELT).

I think it's a shame and even a scandal that people who call themselves "journalists" eagerly spread around their negativity (even if it's truly their own negative opinion) about EVs / Tesla. Of course they might simply be passionate about ICEs and about cars made in Germany, but how about balanced reports and fair tests? How about reflecting EV customer's opinions? None of that present in most of German automobile magazines thus far. They simply ignore the huge satisfaction of Tesla owners in Germany as well as the fascination in people's eyes after test drive experience. You can clearly see the immense bias in the Autobild-, AMS- and Die Welt-articles and I find it always quite embarassing to read that unbalanced crap.

 

[dirkhh]

You can clearly see the immense bias in the Autobild-, AMS- and Die Welt-articles and I find it always quite embarassing to read that unbalanced crap.

Hmm. We must have read different articles then. The one I read did a really good job showing some of the challenges that I experience with my Model S. And it should help avoid incorrect expectations about performance when got or cold.
Can you point out factual errors?

 

[Newb]

Hmm. We must have read different articles then. The one I read did a really good job showing some of the challenges that I experience with my Model S. And it should help avoid incorrect expectations about performance when got or cold.
Can you point out factual errors?

Sure. The whole test was in many people's opinion methodologically unsound. Here I go with the most problematic claim:

"The Tesla's range drops to 184 km (115 US miles!) when constantly driving 120 km/h (75 mph)." (weather condition: fair, 23 degrees Celsius [74 degrees Fahrenheit])

Multiple tests from Tesla owners here in Germany have shown that this is a blatant lie (or: artificially produced result) :

as you can see here:
http://e-auto.tv/reichweite-von-elektroautos-im-praxistest.html

The Tesla owners report an 363 km range (on average!) under the same conditions, which is almost twice as much as "tested" by the magazine. and by the way, all of this refers to the P85+.

 

[Robert.Boston]

And we have lots of data about driving at 75mph from the US. In fair, temperate conditions, I get close to rated range at 75mph (with A/C off, windows up). Maybe a 10% hit (330 wh/mile).

I wonder if they had all the windows down and pano roof wide open? Those add a lot of drag, especially at high speeds.