EU Market Situation and Outlook

[schonelucht]

What's especially promising about this quarter is the broad growth outside the two traditionally strong countries. Despite neither Norway nor the Netherlands having their biggest quarter by far, increased deliveries elsewhere made up sufficiently to easily reach the best European quarter ever accounting for 33% of global sales.

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For the current quarter, we should expect at least 3800 cars in Europe. If previous quarters are a guide we are looking at 800/1200/1800 cars for April/May/June.

 

[Newb]

Thanks for the diagramm schonelucht!

Looking at the Q1 registrations/sales reaffirms that in most European markets (except for Germany) Model S is more popular than most of the equally sized and priced competitors from other premium brands in the 75-135k price range.

As in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway, in Switzerland, too, the Model S outsold BMW 6/7 series, Audi A7/A8, Porsche Panamera, MB CLS Class and equivalent. (with only one exception for Switzerland: MB S-Class which is slightly ahead).

Here's some numbers from the official statistics of Netherlands and Switzerland, which are very detailed and have great archives. I mined the Q1 numbers from the bigger tables for a comparison of top 4 models in the segment in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

Netherlands:

	2013 Q1	2014 Q1	2015 Q1
#1	BMW 6 series (136)	Tesla Model S (213)	Tesla Model S (407)
#2	Audi A7/S7 (60)	Porsche Panamera (169)	MB S-Class (142)
#3	Audi A8/S8 (55)	MB S-Class (131)	Porsche Panamera (46)
#4	MB CLS-Class (52)	BMW 7 series (61)	BMW 6 series (45)

Switzerland:

	2013 Q1	2014 Q1	2015 Q1
#1	MB CLS-Class (151)	Maserati Ghibli (145)	MB S-Class (240)
#2	BMW 6 series (93)	Tesla Model S (133)	Tesla Model S (198)
#3	Audi A7/S7 (62)	MB S-Class (129)	MB CLS-Class (197)
#4	MB S-Class (47)	MB CLS-Class (120)	Maserati Ghibli (117)

If you think about it for a minute, this is the beginning of a paradigm shift in the European premium/luxury large sedan segment. A total newcomer in the automobile industry conquers the whole segment with only one model. Moreover, basically from start of product launch. I'm very often surprised how European and US media doesn't get this context and what's happening in the relevant segment.

Since the premium SUV segment is slightly bigger, expect the same disruption with the X in that segment throughout Europe, too. (except for Germany, which is a quite special market / see my post further above)

Can't wait to see what will happen to the much bigger European mid-size sedan segment in 2018/19 after the launch of the 3...

 

[hobbes]

Getting back to sales... Switzerland was posted. Looks like this will be the best month and quarter for Europe so far (even without my UK guess)! (Table)

mostapasta, thanks for collecting the data. Did you see the wiki table we set up for everyone to add their numbers? There are differences in the totals compared to your collection. Didn´t have time to check yet where they come from, maybe you can help to cross check and put in yours if you got a better source! Thanks.

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Thanks for the diagramm schonelucht!

Yes, thanks! Much better to make out trends in a graphic than just looking at tables.

Looking at the Q1 registrations/sales reaffirms that in most European markets (except for Germany) Model S is more popular than most of the equally sized and priced competitors from other premium brands in the 75-135k price range.

Good analysis. Had thought that Tesla was only doing real well in Norway, but this looks great!

 

[jkirkebo]

Figures came out just now showing that 23% of new cars sold in March 2015 in Norway where plugin cars, most of these pure BEVs. So the addressable market is large, even for a small country.

Actually 23.4% of car registrations in March 2015 was BEVs alone. With PHEVs closer to 30% I would guess.

 

[sundaymorning]

What's especially promising about this quarter is the broad growth outside the two traditionally strong countries. Despite neither Norway nor the Netherlands having their biggest quarter by far, increased deliveries elsewhere made up sufficiently to easily reach the best European quarter ever accounting for 33% of global sales.

View attachment 77530

- - - Updated - - -

For the current quarter, we should expect at least 3800 cars in Europe. If previous quarters are a guide we are looking at 800/1200/1800 cars for April/May/June.

Thanks for the diagramm schonelucht!

Looking at the Q1 registrations/sales reaffirms that in most European markets (except for Germany) Model S is more popular than most of the equally sized and priced competitors from other premium brands in the 75-135k price range.

As in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway, in Switzerland, too, the Model S outsold BMW 6/7 series, Audi A7/A8, Porsche Panamera, MB CLS Class and equivalent. (with only one exception for Switzerland: MB S-Class which is slightly ahead).

Here's some numbers from the official statistics of Netherlands and Switzerland, which are very detailed and have great archives. I mined the Q1 numbers from the bigger tables for a comparison of top 4 models in the segment in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

Netherlands:

	2013 Q1	2014 Q1	2015 Q1
#1	BMW 6 series (136)	Tesla Model S (213)	Tesla Model S (407)
#2	Audi A7/S7 (60)	Porsche Panamera (169)	MB S-Class (142)
#3	Audi A8/S8 (55)	MB S-Class (131)	Porsche Panamera (46)
#4	MB CLS-Class (52)	BMW 7 series (61)	BMW 6 series (45)

Switzerland:

	2013 Q1	2014 Q1	2015 Q1
#1	MB CLS-Class (151)	Maserati Ghibli (145)	MB S-Class (240)
#2	BMW 6 series (93)	Tesla Model S (133)	Tesla Model S (198)
#3	Audi A7/S7 (62)	MB S-Class (129)	MB CLS-Class (197)
#4	MB S-Class (47)	MB CLS-Class (120)	Maserati Ghibli (117)

If you think about it for a minute, this is the beginning of a paradigm shift in the European premium/luxury large sedan segment. A total newcomer in the automobile industry conquers the whole segment with only one model. Moreover, basically from start of product launch. I'm very often surprised how European and US media doesn't get this context and what's happening in the relevant segment.

Since the premium SUV segment is slightly bigger, expect the same disruption with the X in that segment throughout Europe, too. (except for Germany, which is a quite special market / see my post further above)

Can't wait to see what will happen to the much bigger European mid-size sedan segment in 2018/19 after the launch of the 3...

Great work on the guesstimates and extrapolations.

 

[Model 3]

Actually 23.4% of car registrations in March 2015 was BEVs alone. With PHEVs closer to 30% I would guess.

No, not according to elbil.no: http://elbil.no/nyheter/elbiler/3508-1-av-4-biler-i-mars-var-en-elbil

(Google translated - tried to clean up a bit )

The result shows that 7202 cars registered since January. BEV's are so far constitute 20.4 percent of the year's 35,367 cars. At the same time last year the figure was 5.297, or 14.5 percent of total 36,492.

Meanwhile growing market for rechargeable hybrid vehicles to a total of 871 so far this year. This corresponds to 2.5 percent of all passenger cars, and it increases the total rechargeable share to 23 percent in the first quarter.

But on the other hand, I have also seen reports that reports BEV's at 24%, but that may be some kind of misunderstanding/misinterpretations/mixing the results of EV vs BEV?

 

[Johan]

Actually 23.4% of car registrations in March 2015 was BEVs alone. With PHEVs closer to 30% I would guess.

Where did you get your figure?

 

[matbl]

Thanks for the diagramm schonelucht!

Looking at the Q1 registrations/sales reaffirms that in most European markets (except for Germany) Model S is more popular than most of the equally sized and priced competitors from other premium brands in the 75-135k price range.

As in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway, in Switzerland, too, the Model S outsold BMW 6/7 series, Audi A7/A8, Porsche Panamera, MB CLS Class and equivalent. (with only one exception for Switzerland: MB S-Class which is slightly ahead).

Here's some numbers from the official statistics of Netherlands and Switzerland, which are very detailed and have great archives. I mined the Q1 numbers from the bigger tables for a comparison of top 4 models in the segment in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

Netherlands:

	2013 Q1	2014 Q1	2015 Q1
#1	BMW 6 series (136)	Tesla Model S (213)	Tesla Model S (407)
#2	Audi A7/S7 (60)	Porsche Panamera (169)	MB S-Class (142)
#3	Audi A8/S8 (55)	MB S-Class (131)	Porsche Panamera (46)
#4	MB CLS-Class (52)	BMW 7 series (61)	BMW 6 series (45)

Switzerland:

	2013 Q1	2014 Q1	2015 Q1
#1	MB CLS-Class (151)	Maserati Ghibli (145)	MB S-Class (240)
#2	BMW 6 series (93)	Tesla Model S (133)	Tesla Model S (198)
#3	Audi A7/S7 (62)	MB S-Class (129)	MB CLS-Class (197)
#4	MB S-Class (47)	MB CLS-Class (120)	Maserati Ghibli (117)

If you think about it for a minute, this is the beginning of a paradigm shift in the European premium/luxury large sedan segment. A total newcomer in the automobile industry conquers the whole segment with only one model. Moreover, basically from start of product launch. I'm very often surprised how European and US media doesn't get this context and what's happening in the relevant segment.

Since the premium SUV segment is slightly bigger, expect the same disruption with the X in that segment throughout Europe, too. (except for Germany, which is a quite special market / see my post further above)

Can't wait to see what will happen to the much bigger European mid-size sedan segment in 2018/19 after the launch of the 3...

Very interesting. Is it possible from the complete set of data to conclude if the Model S sales are additional or if it us eating into the numbers for the other brands?

 

[smac]

Very interesting. Is it possible from the complete set of data to conclude if the Model S sales are additional or if it us eating into the numbers for the other brands?

I'd be interested to know too. I definitely get a sense here in the UK people are stretching up from an E class or 5 series rather than cross shopping against an S class or 7 series.

 

[Newb]

Good points. I'll dig that up again to check but I had the feeling the segment was getting bigger in the said countries over the course of the last few years while it almost disappeared in Scandinavia. It is plausible (and certainly true on the basis of anecdotal evidence) that people are stretching up from E-Class or BMW 5 series, but it's still annoying to MB, BMW, Audi, Maserati that those people don't consider stretching up to their large premium sedans. On a counterfactual note, if Tesla never had been founded, would they stretch up to BMW 6/7 series or CLS/S-Class today? Not easy to proof that they'd not.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Here are some numbers for Norway. To me it seems like Tesla sales have for the most part increased the size of the premium segment. One thing to remember though is that BMW has been boosted significantly by the i3 in 2014 and 2015. This is the cheapest car BMW offers in Norway. Without the i3, BMW would have ended up around 5% in 2014/2015.

The big loser seems to be Audi. They are also the only company in this comparison without a BEV in their current lineup.

And one thing not covered in these statistics is the used car import. It's quite common to import a 2-3 year old BMW from Germany, that way you get the cars cheaper and there's much less tax. There's probably been a significant impact here.

Sales by brand, actual number

	2012	2013	2014	2015 YTD
BMW	7325	6876	9602	2070
Audi	8321	7511	7077	1374
Mercedes	5616	6091	6603	1572
Tesla	32	1986	4042	1532
Total	15678	22464	27324	6548

Sales by brand, percentages

	2012	2013	2014	2015 YTD
BMW	5.3	4.8	6.7 (5.3)*	5.9 (5.0)*
Audi	6.0	5.3	4.9	3.9
Mercedes	4.1	4.3	4.6	4.4 (4.0)*
Tesla	0.0	1.4	2.8	4.3
Total	15.4	15.8	19.0 (17.6)*	18.5 (17.2)*

*Numbers excluding the BMW i3 BEV and Mercedes B-class BEV.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Here are some numbers for Norway. To me it seems like Tesla sales have for the most part increased the size of the premium segment. One thing to remember though is that BMW has been boosted significantly by the i3 in 2014 and 2015. This is the cheapest car BMW offers in Norway. Without the i3, BMW would have ended up around 5% in 2014/2015.

The big loser seems to be Audi. They are also the only company in this comparison without a BEV in their current lineup.

And one thing not covered in these statistics is the used car import. It's quite common to import a 2-3 year old BMW from Germany, that way you get the cars cheaper and there's much less tax. There's probably been a significant impact here.

Sales by brand, actual number

	2012	2013	2014	2015 YTD
BMW	7325	6876	9602	2070
Audi	8321	7511	7077	1374
Mercedes	5616	6091	6603	1572
Tesla	32	1986	4042	1532
Total	15678	22464	27324	6548

Sales by brand, percentages

	2012	2013	2014	2015 YTD
BMW	5.3	4.8	6.7 (5.3)*	5.9 (5.0)*
Audi	6.0	5.3	4.9	3.9
Mercedes	4.1	4.3	4.6	4.4
Tesla	0.0	1.4	2.8	4.3
Total	15.4	15.8	19.0 (17.6)*	18.5 (17.6)*

*Numbers excluding the BMW i3 BEV.

Wow... to see it like that. And remember, Tesla did all that with just 1 car. BMW, Audi, Mercedes that's all multiple vehicles across a series of price points.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Wow... to see it like that. And remember, Tesla did all that with just 1 car. BMW, Audi, Mercedes that's all multiple vehicles across a series of price points.

Yes, it's impressive. Though it's doubtful Tesla will be able to maintain the percentage from Q1 2015 through to the end of the year, even counting in some Model X deliveries and a lot of 70D deliveries. Next year should be very nice, though.

 

[matbl]

Good points. I'll dig that up again to check but I had the feeling the segment was getting bigger in the said countries over the course of the last few years while it almost disappeared in Scandinavia. It is plausible (and certainly true on the basis of anecdotal evidence) that people are stretching up from E-Class or BMW 5 series, but it's still annoying to MB, BMW, Audi, Maserati that those people don't consider stretching up to their large premium sedans. On a counterfactual note, if Tesla never had been founded, would they stretch up to BMW 6/7 series or CLS/S-Class today? Not easy to proof that they'd not.

Please do, it would be very interesting.

Well, since I'm one of those who stretched from a BMW 5-series (520d) to a S85 I can tell you that I'd never stretch for a 6/7. Simply not worth it...

 

[Just a Reader]

I don't claim to have a special insight into the market but I believe that few people buy an A8, a MB S-Class or a 7 series privately in Germany. These cars are considered to be conspicuous, unwieldy in size and inflexible in their use. People will rather buy a packed E-Class ( the sign at the heck showing the engine size is usually left away), a 5-series, an Audi Allroad etc. Plenty of these cars are station wagons which aren't available as an S-Class. Plenty of enthusiasts buy something like an E-Class 350 CDI for everyday motorway use and an 911 for fun. There are simply far more options than with Tesla.
If you want to have a long distance BEV, then you simply have no other option than to buy the Model S.

 

[smac]

UK Figures are in for 2014:

697 Cars in total.

 

[vgrinshpun]

UK Figures are in for 2014:

697 Cars in total.

Do you have the breakdown Q1/Q2?
Thanks

 

[mostapasta]

By my calculation:
Q2 - 192
Q3 - 282
Q4 - 223

 

[smac]

By my calculation:
Q2 - 192
Q3 - 282
Q4 - 223

Agree. TESLA MODEL S - How Many Left?

TBH it's a little disappointing because Q3 includes a lot of pre-order cars. Q2 was basically all the cars they could get out the door in under a month.

The 70D announcement, and delays to the P85D will put a big dent in the Q2 UK figures. (A few people cancelling S85s and S60s to go for the 70D, which is a good fit for the UK market range requirements in my view.)

So I'm expecting Q3 '2015 to be higher when the D cars arrive.

 

[schonelucht]

Hertz is expanding their Tesla S rental fleet in Europe. After Amsterdam, you can now also rent them from Brussels Airport for the same flat 250EUR/day price. Hopefully there is some more scope for demand in this evolution. Both directly in cars purchased by Hertz and indirectly by Hertz customers who learn about the Tesla through a rental.