EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Robert.Boston]

I would like to point out that majority of the cars delivered in Q2 was backlog of S85D/P85D orders from Q4 2014, i expect to see just 2000-2500 in Q3 unless Tesla announces Major changes soon that will still be deliverable in Q3.
Feel free to timestamp this post.

Duly noted: 08-July-2015 12:36pm.

But I think your pessimism isn't well founded. Tesla's experience has been that sales generate more sales, as friends and neighbors see the product first-hand and the scariness of "all electric" wears off. Tesla is nowhere near saturating its potential market in Europe. Other plus factors are the continuing expansion of the Superchargers in Europe and, perversely, the coming expiry of EV tax incentives (which may shift demand from 2016 forward).

 

[hobbes]

The last "big" number outside of UK came out finally - Switzerland. And it's a big one - 253.
Even assuming low 200 for UK for the quarter, which is in the table right now, Q2 in Europe is 3909 vs. 3404 in Q1, 15% up.
If we exclude Norway, it's 2767 in Q2 vs. 1958 in Q1. More than 40% up!
Elon did speak about "amazing" demand in Europe, looks like awareness and acceptance of Tesla brand is increasing. I think outside Norway and Netherlands, it's still far from saturation, especially markets that started picking up relatively recently - France, Sweden, Finland, Italy, ..

Wow, they grabbed 3rd place for the quarter from Germany!

As for UK, there were new numbers that I´ll use for an estimate for Q2: Tesla is not reported as an individual brand but falls under the "other imports" category in this spreadsheet. For Q1 we know the actual registrations of 216 out of 509 other imports. Using that ratio on this quarter's (172 for June and 1044 for the quarter) other imports, I get 73 for June and 443 for 2015 total. So for Q2 that is 443-216=227. I'll split that up into 75 for each month in Q2 to keep it simple.

So in total (with only single-digit countries missing), looks like we stay just below 4000 registrations for Q2 (3934, see wiki).

 

[svp]

Sekcija za osebna motorna vozila - Statistika
Slovenia - 2 in June, 5 so far this year

 

[Matias]

Finland June 8, source http://www.autoalantiedotuskeskus.fi/files/1011/Kesakuu_2015.xlsx

This month will be considerably better, because Tesla has just officially opened in Finland and has had meny pending deliveries.

 

[hobbes]

Sekcija za osebna motorna vozila - Statistika
Slovenia - 2 in June, 5 so far this year

You saved Slovenia ! I was going to drop those countries that we have hardly any numbers for from the table for now for better readability. Now there is only the Czech Republic an Luxemburg left on that list - anyone willing to research numbers/web site for them, too?

Very good site you found, I added the numbers for all months up to now.

 

[Benz]

253 Tesla Model S deliveries in Switzerland June 2015.
638 Tesla Model S deliveries in Switzerland H1 2015.

Best Selling Cars Blog link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015...2015-seat-alhambra-and-bmw-2-series-shoot-up/

 

[32no]

253 Tesla Model S deliveries in Switzerland June 2015.
638 Tesla Model S deliveries in Switzerland H1 2015.

Best Selling Cars Blog link: http://bestsellingcarsblog.com/2015...2015-seat-alhambra-and-bmw-2-series-shoot-up/

Impressive. For H1 2015:

Tesla Model S: 638
Mercedes S Class: 415
BMW 6 Series: 157
Audi A7: 133
Porsche Panamera: 73
Audi A8: 63
BMW 7 Series: 55
Jaguar XJ: 12

Out of these models, Model S is about 41% of the sales.

 

[Yggdrasill]

A new update from MrBacardi, as of July 18th:

130 new registrations
- including 129 D-models and 1 with rear wheel drive
- including 76 with 85 kWh og 54 with standard battery (60/70 kWh)
- including 129 with 5 seats and 1 with 4 seats (executive rear seats)


The 70D must account for around 41% of sales, so that's not too bad. With the current exchange rate making the Model S a lot more expensive than it has previously been, it's natural that we will see both lower sales and a shift towards the lower end models.

 

[hobbes]

A new update from MrBacardi, as of July 18th:

130 new registrations
- including 129 D-models and 1 with rear wheel drive
- including 76 with 85 kWh og 54 with standard battery (60/70 kWh)
- including 129 with 5 seats and 1 with 4 seats (executive rear seats)


The 70D must account for around 41% of sales, so that's not too bad. With the current exchange rate making the Model S a lot more expensive than it has previously been, it's natural that we will see both lower sales and a shift towards the lower end models.

Thanks for the update! Added it to our wiki table.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Result for all of July in Norway, courtesy of MrBacardi:

222 new registrations
- including 221 D-models and 1 with rear wheel drive
- including 128 with 85 kWh and 94 with standard battery (70 kWh)
- including 221 with 5 seats and 1 with 4 seats (executive rear seats)

 

[pGo]

Result for all of July in Norway, courtesy of MrBacardi:

222 new registrations
- including 221 D-models and 1 with rear wheel drive
- including 128 with 85 kWh and 94 with standard battery (70 kWh)
- including 221 with 5 seats and 1 with 4 seats (executive rear seats)

Thank you. 70 stands at 42%.

 

[RobStark]

For a few months we were getting Swedish numbers the first day of the month shortly after midnight.

What happened?

 

[matbl]

For a few months we were getting Swedish numbers the first day of the month shortly after midnight.

What happened?

First day of the month happened on a weekend this time...
I don't know about shortly after midnight., more like 9-10 am... Depending on time zone of course.
i expect the swedish numbers for july to be released tomorrow at 9 am.

 

[matbl]

First day of the month happened on a weekend this time...
I don't know about shortly after midnight., more like 9-10 am... Depending on time zone of course.
i expect the swedish numbers for july to be released tomorrow at 9 am.

Release statistics doesn't break out "environmental friendly cars" yet. It will be released later today according to current release.
BUT! Judging from the number of cars in the "other brands" category being total 106, my guess is that it will be something like 50 MS for july.

 

[Matias]

July Finland 32.

http://www.autoalantiedotuskeskus.fi/files/1048/heinakuu_2015.pdf page 5

Big jump is because Tesla opened Service Center in Finland. There were many deliveries waiting that.

 

[Model 3]

Result for all of July in Norway, courtesy of MrBacardi:

222 new registrations

Which is now officially confirmed:
http://www.ofvas.no/bilsalget-i-juli/category665.html

 

[matbl]

I was wrong in my guess.
103 for Sweden in July. This makes it the 57th most sold model in July. It shares the 57th place with BMW X3.
It also means Tesla outsold Porsche (all models combined) for the second consecutive month.

 

[hobbes]

I was wrong in my guess.
103 for Sweden in July. This makes it the 57th most sold model in July. It shares the 57th place with BMW X3.
It also means Tesla outsold Porsche (all models combined) for the second consecutive month.

Good number, thanks for posting! BUT: You could all save me some work if you provided a link to a source without someone asking first... Need it for the wiki. Thanks.

 

[matbl]

Good number, thanks for posting! BUT: You could all save me some work if you provided a link to a source without someone asking first... Need it for the wiki. Thanks.

Sorry about that. I will include it in the future.
Source: Nyregistreringar juli 2015 (def)

 

[hobbes]

Update on all the numbers gathered so far for Europe: We are at 643 for July while still missing Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland and France, so it is likely numbers will end up better than April (793, 1st month of Q1) or even May (1039). UK is an estimate though (assuming average monthly reservations of Q2). See the wiki table for sources etc.

Norway	222
Netherlands
UK	75
Germany
Belgium	38
Switzerland
Denmark	103
France
Sweden	103
Austria	67
Finland	32
Estonia
Czech Republic
Ireland
Luxembourg
Italy
Spain	2
Latvia
Slovenia
Poland	1