Yeah, I was thinking about doing curves for some individual countries, too to see when they saturate/level off. Then from number of sales per capita at saturation one could maybe extrapolate to non saturated countries to find out how much integrated demand to expect (assuming somewhat similar wealth distribution in those countries, which might pose quite a large error - but still, should be able to get an order of magnitude out of that. Or maybe not per capita but relative to other luxury cars...).
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Yeah, I was thinking about doing curves for some individual countries, too to see when they saturate/level off. Then from number of sales per capita at saturation one could maybe extrapolate to non saturated countries to find out how much integrated demand to expect (assuming somewhat similar wealth distribution in those countries, which might pose quite a large error - but still, should be able to get an order of magnitude out of that. Or maybe not per capita but relative to other luxury cars...).
RobStark
Well-Known Member
A Modes S 70D in
Norway cost kr 586,200 or $71,300 plus $634 in tax
Germany cost € 66,737 or $74,418 plus $14,055 in tax
Belgium cost € 66,900 or $74,600 plus $16,102 in tax
Switzerland cost CHF 70,300 or $72,014 plus $6146 in tax
Britain cost £45,000 or $$70,263 plus $15,216 in tax
So relative to the USA Tesla is discounting Model S in Norway and Switzerland in addition to low taxes where it is doing very. Also discounting in Britain but high taxes.
Not discounting in Eurozone plus some heavy taxes.
I know Britain and France are supposed to have some sort of EV tax credit/rebate but it does not show up on Tesla order pages.
Norway cost kr 586,200 or $71,300 plus $634 in tax
Germany cost € 66,737 or $74,418 plus $14,055 in tax
Belgium cost € 66,900 or $74,600 plus $16,102 in tax
Switzerland cost CHF 70,300 or $72,014 plus $6146 in tax
Britain cost £45,000 or $$70,263 plus $15,216 in tax
So relative to the USA Tesla is discounting Model S in Norway and Switzerland in addition to low taxes where it is doing very. Also discounting in Britain but high taxes.
Not discounting in Eurozone plus some heavy taxes.
I know Britain and France are supposed to have some sort of EV tax credit/rebate but it does not show up on Tesla order pages.
We now have official sources for all countries in the table.
Here's some other countries missing from the table:
Portugal (EV Sales: Portugal June 2015 (Full Ranking) says 10 cars sold so far this year) - official site - ACAP | Homepage - I could not figure out where ev-sales found the actual numbers
Croatia
Greece
Bosnia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Lithuania
Serbia
Slovakia
Turkey
Macedonia
Montenegro
Albania
Andorra
Lichtenstein
Next year (at least according to Supercharger map), we should expect sales to start also in Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus
Not sure if any sales are planned for Malta and Cyprus
Any volunteers to look into any of these countries?
Here's some other countries missing from the table:
Portugal (EV Sales: Portugal June 2015 (Full Ranking) says 10 cars sold so far this year) - official site - ACAP | Homepage - I could not figure out where ev-sales found the actual numbers
Croatia
Greece
Bosnia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Lithuania
Serbia
Slovakia
Turkey
Macedonia
Montenegro
Albania
Andorra
Lichtenstein
Next year (at least according to Supercharger map), we should expect sales to start also in Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus
Not sure if any sales are planned for Malta and Cyprus
Any volunteers to look into any of these countries?
Good info...much appreciated.
A couple of thoughts, looking out to availability and long lead delivery times for new 70 orders in Europe. either 70 has seen huge sales ( at the new prices), or Tesla is cutting back on 70 production mix so that the margin mix is within internal targets.
Also, worth noting that Norway and Switzerland are the among the top 3 richest countries in Europe, with Switzerland having tons of residents who are not Swiss, but dual residency wealthy folks from all over the world.
I wonder if the 70 pricing strategy making the news in Europe, has stimulated demand to such an extent that due to heavy demand, and Tesla's production constraints resulting in 2-3month lead times, this could end up bringing people into the store and then they end up up selling themselves into the higher price model, due to the lead times.
Intended , or unintended, a classic upsell demand-pricing strategy for luxury goods, where the buyers who have the capacity to go an extra 5-10% up the price ladder, end up upselling themselves ....once they walk in the door and see and taste the merchandise , so to speak.....
IF so, I expect Norway and Switzerland is where this could happen in a big way, because when they get excited, they don't want to wait 3 months and end up buying the higher price point Model? Since they certainly have the buying power...
looks good to me...
Last edited:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Slovenia had its first Supercharger for about a year and now has a second but no sales or service.
I don't see any planned Supercharger for Belarus. At $7500 Belarusian GDP per capita is 1/3 of Slovenian GDP per capita.
With sanctions and counter sanctions between West and Russia I doubt planned Russian Superchargers get built. Russian stores and service centers seem far fetched.
I don't see any planned Supercharger for Belarus. At $7500 Belarusian GDP per capita is 1/3 of Slovenian GDP per capita.
With sanctions and counter sanctions between West and Russia I doubt planned Russian Superchargers get built. Russian stores and service centers seem far fetched.
RobStark - Belarus - yes, it's also a very small country. On the other hand, the standard of living is much higher than in Ukraine, and Tesla did seem to plan entry into Ukraine, at least before the recent turmoil.
Regarding Russia - what can Tesla expect in Russia is an interesting question. On one hand, the geography makes Tesla not very practical and right now the economy and auto sales are imploding.
On the other hand, the premium car segment is actually holding up not bad.
Focus2move | Russia Car Market - May 2015
You can see that Mercedes is the only brand, which sales are up YoY so far.
Also, despite huge land size, economic activity in Russia is extremely centralized around Moscow. I am guessing a couple of stores in Moscow and one in St. Petersburg would definitely pay for themselves.
Regarding Russia - what can Tesla expect in Russia is an interesting question. On one hand, the geography makes Tesla not very practical and right now the economy and auto sales are imploding.
On the other hand, the premium car segment is actually holding up not bad.
Focus2move | Russia Car Market - May 2015
You can see that Mercedes is the only brand, which sales are up YoY so far.
Also, despite huge land size, economic activity in Russia is extremely centralized around Moscow. I am guessing a couple of stores in Moscow and one in St. Petersburg would definitely pay for themselves.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla planned Superchargers in Ukraine not necessarily entry into the Ukrainian auto market.
I think Tesla should finish Western Europe and Central Europe before going further East.
Iceland,Ireland,Spain,Portugal,Southern Italy,Poland,Baltics, Slovakia,Czech Republic, Slovenia,Croatia,Hungary maybe even Greece before it considers Russia,Ukraine and Belarus.
I think I would consider Ankara and Istanbul before Moscow and St Petersburg.
I think Tesla should finish Western Europe and Central Europe before going further East.
Iceland,Ireland,Spain,Portugal,Southern Italy,Poland,Baltics, Slovakia,Czech Republic, Slovenia,Croatia,Hungary maybe even Greece before it considers Russia,Ukraine and Belarus.
I think I would consider Ankara and Istanbul before Moscow and St Petersburg.
So I have repeatedly tried to gather information in Hungary but it`s not easy. Finally, I have found some data at the site of the National Statistics Office, but Tesla is only listed in the annual data - the quarterly does not include it, maybe because it is about "new cars" and as Tesla does not have a shop here (yet), all cars are imported privately.
In any case I asked the Office if they could make their annual passenger vehicle data available at least quarterly if not monthly - we will see. For now this is what I could find:
The first Tesla was registered in Hungary in 2011 - safe to say it was a Roadster. In 2013 three more came, but I have no way to see if they were still Roadsters imported or we already had a few Model S. In 2014 eight more were registered, presumably all Model S, so the total by the end of last year was 12. I suppose 8-11 of these were Model S and 1-3 were Roadsters.
TMS
Member
Luxembourg numbers for Q2 don't add up: no cars sold and the total is 15! Could somebody please check this?
Here you go. Not sure if you can extrapolate saturation numbers from one European country to another. The impact of wildly different fiscal regimes is huge in my opinion.
Data on political stability, local ev incentives, sales prospects (market size), etc. may inform decision making when considering potential markets. Lack of language barrier (English comprehension) is likely to improve sales prospects of Tesla.
The situation in Ukraine is too unstable to consider it as a market. It does not make sense to try to sell expensive luxury cars into that region. Also, the region is not on some major transit route, at least not to my knowledge.
Greece and other southern European countries are frequent holiday destinations for many Europeans. It makes sense to have superchargers all over Europe, to support electrified European travellers.
Some businesses, like Westfield (shopping centers), use traffic data to inform decision making on Westfield shops locations. Perhaps Tesla uses similar traffic data when establishing the best location for superchargers.
Agree. Russia is not politically stable. Back in March, GM halted production of its 3 plants in Russia, due to a steep collapse in car sales, political instability, local currency 50% drop and sanctions.
Gerardf
Active Member
Vacation traffic to Greece is mainly to the islands and by plane. And that is very low cost tickets. To my opinion low priority to have SuC there.
Using Superchargers in Austria and Slovenia we can now already reach all North Croatia. That is not bad at all for vacation traffic.
Same for South of Spain. Very cheap flight there. And Barcelona is now covered.
I just did a vacation trip through West & South Germany, via Switserland, Liechtenstein, North Italy, Austria and South-East Germany and back to Netherlands. Only using SuperChargers. I planned for camping and Hotels als paln-b for charging. Never any need. All was very easy and required just some limited planning and minor route adjustments to ideal route.
In 2014 same for Norway (just few times charging at a camping, would not be needed anymore now for my route).
To my opinion SuperCharger coverage for vacation travel in Europe is already very impressive and certainly good enough to convince current prospective buyers they can use their Model-S for vacation road-trips.
Actually this might very well be an important factor in the recent growth of the European business. People do not want to have to use another car for vacations when they have invested in such a supercar with lots of luggage space for daily use. And many are lucky to have parking space for one car
The Norwegian forum has been full of discussions/planing and reporting about going to Croatia, Italy, southern France and Spain with the Model S. Where and how to charge etc. IFAIK the first supercharger user in Spain was a Norwegian on vacation. And more is going next year when Spain has a better build out supercharger network.
The logic behind this is that the source linked for July says 3 in July (as put in the wiki), and 18 total for 2015. As we had 1 for Q1 the 18-3-1=4 registrations remain for Q2 (given the Q1 is correct). So I changed the 15 to 14 and marked it as an estimate. Maybe someone can research the individual monthly numbers some time.
- - - Updated - - -
Cool, thanks! Maybe the best way to extrapolate is using the share the Model S has of the premium car segment it competes in. That would mirror how many people in a given country can afford such a vehicle. So if Tesla gets i.e. 50% share of that on average in a few countries where the sales have levelled off, you could estimate from the size of the other countries how many sales you might expect there (again, just interested in order of magnitude).
I don't think I fully agree with the sentiment regarding Russia. Yes, the economy is plunging, the distances are vast.
But, despite political instability, premium Russian car market is still large. GM is not a good comparison, as it was focusing on low end cars.
It's actually comparable to France now
focus2move.com/russian-auto-sector/
Focus2move| France Vehicles Sales Statistics - 2015
Mercedes - Russia - 26K, France - 26K
BMW - Russia - 14K, France - 25K
Porsche - Russia - 2.5K, France - 2.5K
Lexus - Russia - 9K, France - 2K
Also, right now the import tax is 0 for electric cars. Although approved only through end of 2015 , but there are talks about extending.
If 30 Model S were really sold so far this year (EV Sales: Russia ), despite plunging economy, high costs and difficulty of bringing Model S to Russia, no service centers,no free cell connection, no localization in terms of language,etc. the potential must be quite good. For sure would be worth a couple of stores in Moscow. Even more so for Model X
But, despite political instability, premium Russian car market is still large. GM is not a good comparison, as it was focusing on low end cars.
It's actually comparable to France now
focus2move.com/russian-auto-sector/
Focus2move| France Vehicles Sales Statistics - 2015
Mercedes - Russia - 26K, France - 26K
BMW - Russia - 14K, France - 25K
Porsche - Russia - 2.5K, France - 2.5K
Lexus - Russia - 9K, France - 2K
Also, right now the import tax is 0 for electric cars. Although approved only through end of 2015 , but there are talks about extending.
If 30 Model S were really sold so far this year (EV Sales: Russia ), despite plunging economy, high costs and difficulty of bringing Model S to Russia, no service centers,no free cell connection, no localization in terms of language,etc. the potential must be quite good. For sure would be worth a couple of stores in Moscow. Even more so for Model X
RobStark
Well-Known Member
The arbitrariness of the Russian government or better said the arbitrariness of Vladimir Putin is too great IMO for a Western business to enter Russia. Particularly one with Elon Musk at the helm that has had verbal spars with Russian apparatchiks. If you are already there, say BMW or Porsche, you may think twice about leaving your sunk investment.
But sinking good money into Russia seems like a bad idea. I keep reading Russia's elite and children of the elite keep moving out of Russia to London,Paris, and elsewhere in the West. Less and less of them to buy Model S and Model X.
But sinking good money into Russia seems like a bad idea. I keep reading Russia's elite and children of the elite keep moving out of Russia to London,Paris, and elsewhere in the West. Less and less of them to buy Model S and Model X.
Russian car market is large, premium segment is large. Market size is the only positive this region market has going for it. All other relevant factors indicate a need for caution, some indicators scream run away as fast as you can.
If Tesla enters that market, they are likely to lose money due to falling local currency, they are at risk of sinking the whole investment as doing business in Russia and similar places is quite different to doing business in the US. Foreigners must play by the local rules. These rules, I would not wish on anyone to have to play by them - good luck with that.
It might be safer and work out better if Tesla strengthens its footprint and presence in favourable regions before entering exotic ones, like Russia, Middle East, etc.
I am not saying not to enter these risky markets, just to delay until the risk is reduced in safer markets so the business is ready to take on the extra risk of entering the regions of very different culture, political systems and language.
I have to second this. I think that I've read somewhere that Elon ignored a few overtures aimed at him regarding the Russian market.
This reminds me of an old joke about the difference between smart people and wise people. Smart people always find a way out of difficult situations. Wise people do not get in the difficult situations. I believe it will be wise of Tesla to stay away from the Russian market.
Similar threads
