EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Quant]

Ya, Russia is not far away from another fabricated incursion/excursion into another former Soviet Bloc country!

Why take this risk and currency and government risk when supply is constrained and so many other markets have 3-4 month lead times for many S models, and once X launches I expect the demand from that will be insane with supply as the limiting factor.

Fooling around in Russia and taking a chance on Putin the dictator is poor risk-reward at this time!

Elon is right about Russia, the government and the bureaucracy - and bribes that have to be paid - creates huge hurdles!

 

[Auzie]

Ya, Russia is not far away from another fabricated incursion/excursion into another former Soviet Bloc country!

Why take this risk and currency and government risk when supply is constrained and so many other markets have 3-4 month lead times for many S models, and once X launches I expect the demand from that will be insane with supply as the limiting factor.

Fooling around in Russia and taking a chance on Putin the dictator is poor risk-reward at this time!

Elon is right about Russia, the government and the bureaucracy - and bribes that have to be paid - creates huge hurdles!

To my knowledge, paying bribes is not only a hurdle, it is illegal and subject to US federal law and prosecution, namely Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

 

[Quant]

To my knowledge, paying bribes is not only a hurdle, it is illegal and subject to US federal law and prosecution, namely Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Precisely....

 

[Drax7]

What's hilarious is that Elon has actually been in Russia when attempting to buy an icbm rocket engine for space x.

 

[RobStark]

What's hilarious is that Elon has actually been in Russia negotiating when attempting to buy
An icbm rocket engine from them for space x.

And left in frustration at being "russianed" and built his own Falcon rockets instead.

 

[jkirkebo]

IF so, I expect Norway and Switzerland is where this could happen in a big way, because when they get excited, they don't want to wait 3 months and end up buying the higher price point Model? Since they certainly have the buying power...

I don't think this is a big factor in Norway. We don't buy new cars off the lot here, we are used to order them to spec and wait 3-6 months.

Registrations so far in august suggests a 70kWh share of about 35%, and thus 65% 85kWh.

 

[hobbes]

Registrations so far in august suggests a 70kWh share of about 35%, and thus 65% 85kWh.

Thanks for the hint . Checked elbilforum and our friend MBacardi says 101 Model S registered as of August 15:
(Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!

For comparison, 130 were registered in July as of the 18th.

 

[hobbes]

Thank's a lot for your work on the european delivery numbers Hobbes and partners:wink:

As far as I can see it makes most sense to compare monthly delivery numbers respective to their position in each quarter.
By comparing each first month in a quarter this year, it looks like TM is on track to 50% growth rate in Europe.
The corresponding monthly sales figures for January, April, July are: 522, 802, 1182;

(Taking this back here from the short term thread)

Yeah, thanks to everybody, this is the most complete month number-wise we have had for a while!

Taking just the 1st months of each quarter is similar to my idea with the SMA. Just for fun I added a curve for the 50% YoY growth to the plot to see how it fits:

The fine print: The green line is an exponential curve with the factor in the exponent calculated to match the 50% YoY growth, while the scaling factor is fitted to the data.

 

[mmd]

Thanks for the great plot! But I think a plot of quarterly deliveries will yield a smoother and more appropriate line, as there is too much variation in monthly data. Could that be superimposed on the same plot?

 

[hobbes]

Thanks for the great plot! But I think a plot of quarterly deliveries will yield a smoother and more appropriate line, as there is too much variation in monthly data. Could that be superimposed on the same plot?

That´s is what I put the SMA for. The SMA data point for say June is the sum of deliveries for Apr, May and June divided by 3, so it resembles the quarter total as variation is concerned. But the SMA also gives you more data points than just the quarterly numbers.

 

[mmd]

That´s is what I put the SMA for. The SMA data point for say June is the sum of deliveries for Apr, May and June divided by 3, so it resembles the quarter total as variation is concerned. But the SMA also gives you more data points than just the quarterly numbers.

I meant, if you take the financial quarters, the plot should be monotonically increasing, an we won't see the ups and downs we see in the 3-month SMA. So, there will be just one point for 3 months of a quarter, which will be the average of those 3 months. IMO, that should reflect the real growth better. But it's not that important really.

 

[Matias]

Is Danish car tax for electric cars rising?

 

[RobStark]

Is Danish car tax for electric cars rising?

Exemption to the car tax for electric cars is ending Jan 1 2016.

For premium priced vehicles tax can be as high as 250%.

 

[Matias]

Ouch. I guess afther that there will be very few Teslas sold in Denmark.

 

[RobStark]

Ouch. I guess afther that there will be very few Teslas sold in Denmark.

Most people that were thinking of buying a Tesla in 2016 will buy in 2015 instead.

Then in 2017 sales IMO will be about 20% of what they were in 2015.

Danes will start to import used Teslas from the rest of the EU with a lower price tag and therefore lower tax.

A Dane on TM's forums said a Model S that can be purchased for $100k in the USA will cost the equivalent of $250k in Denmark in 2016.

 

[mmd]

Danes will start to import used Teslas from the rest of the EU with a lower price tag and therefore lower tax.
A Dane on TM's forums said a Model S that can be purchased for $100k in the USA will cost the equivalent of $250k in Denmark in 2016.

So, the tax (import duty) is 150% ?
Wonder how the warranty works for used Teslas. Can Danes get them repaired at Danish service centers if it was bought in some other country?

I think, Norway is more important than Denmark. Has anything been finalized for Norway for 2016?

 

[RobStark]

So, the tax (import duty) is 150% ?
Wonder how the warranty works for used Teslas. Can Danes get them repaired at Danish service centers if it was bought in some other country?

I think, Norway is more important than Denmark. Has anything been finalized for Norway for 2016?

Import duty is the same everywhere in the EU, 10%. Tesla does not pay import duty because it re-assembles in the car in the Netherlands. The tax is a luxury car tax. The higher the price the higher the percentage for the tax AFAIK.

There are three Tesla zones in Europe; Norway,Switzerland and the rest of Europe.

Any car purchased in the rest of Europe can be serviced anywhere in the rest of Europe.

I presume there is a single EU market for used cars in the EU. Buy a car in France or Italy and import it duty free. That does not mean luxury tax free.

Norway nothing changes til 2017. There are general elections in 2017. And the new government is the one that will be making the decisions about whether to sunset EV incentives or not.

 

[mmd]

Great info! Thanks!

 

[Yggdrasill]

There's zero issues with getting the car serviced in other countries than where the car is bought. Service center wait times for non-critical stuff is currently 3-6 months here, so some Norwegian Tesla owners have combined a road trip to southern Europe with getting the car serviced. That way you skip the 3-6 months waiting time. And it's good for Tesla, as it divides the load better.

 

[RobStark]

About a year ago, a German member of TMC who was considering a used Swiss Model S was told the policy was I stated above by a manger of a Swiss Tesla store. I guess things have changed or the manager was misinformed. Would not be the first time.