EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Troy]

Hi everybody. UK 2015 numbers were just published today. There has been a huge increase in Q4. With 800 units in Q4 registrations were more than double the estimate. Compared to 347 units in Q4 2014, that's an increase of 231%. Here is how the situation looks like:

Source (Excel file from gov.uk, 14 Apr 2016 )

You can find the latest 2015 EU sales table HERE. In that table you can see the UK was the second best performing country in Europe in Q4.

Inside the source file it says next update will be in June 2016. We won't know Q1 numbers until then. We need to use estimates. So I looked at Tesla's sales distribution in Europe in each quarter in 2015. It looks like this:

21% 3,453 Q1
23% 3,904 Q2
21% 3,517 Q3
35% 5,826 Q4
100% 16,700 2015

Based on that my estimate is (3453/5826)*800= 474 units for Q1 2016 UK (monthly average= 158 units). We can use this number until the update in June.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So for what it's worth here are the 2015 statistics from Hungary. Like in the UK, the government agency is taking its sweet time releasing this - seems like we are the only two countries where this is not available for free within days of the end of the month.

So keep in mind there is no Tesla Store in Hungary yet, so cars are either second hand or are private imports from other EU countries. Also I can't even get to vehicle type, the drilldown ends at brand...

Total count of Teslas:
2014: 12
2015: 23

All passenger vehicles in Hungary at the end of 2015: 3.2 million (+3%)
Gasoline:2.3 million (+0%)
Diesel: 890k (+10%)
Hybrids: 8290 (+30%)
EVs: 342 (+95%)

 

[geneclean55]

Hi everybody. UK 2015 numbers were just published today. There has been a huge increase in Q4. With 800 units in Q4 registrations were more than double the estimate. Compared to 347 units in Q4 2014, that's an increase of 231%. Here is how the situation looks like:

Source (Excel file from gov.uk, 14 Apr 2016 )

You can find the latest 2015 EU sales table HERE. In that table you can see the UK was the second best performing country in Europe in Q4.

Inside the source file it says next update will be in June 2016. We won't know Q1 numbers until then. We need to use estimates. So I looked at Tesla's sales distribution in Europe in each quarter in 2015. It looks like this:

21% 3,453 Q1
23% 3,904 Q2
21% 3,517 Q3
35% 5,826 Q4
100% 16,700 2015

Based on that my estimate is (3453/5826)*800= 474 units for Q1 2016 UK (monthly average= 158 units). We can use this number until the update in June.

So discounting the huge number of registrations in Denmark for q42015 due to incentives winding down, the q42015 data seems to suggest that the UK and Norway will be the largest EU markets for Tesla sales.

 

[geneclean55]

Musk said that the UK could become the biggest market for Tesla in Europe.
EV incentives are fairly good in the UK and unlike other big EU countries, there are no "national champion" car manufacturers that persuade the general population to "buy British". Jaguar has been been bought and sold several times by foreign companies.

 

[schonelucht]

How is the (public) charging accommodation in the UK?

 

[geneclean55]

Looks like there are almost 2000 rapid-charging connectors at 575 public locations

Map of charging points for electric car drivers in UK: Zap-Map

 

[geneclean55]

Also, as of March 2016 the government will contribute 500 pounds towards the cost of a home installation charging point.

 

[Benz]

Incentives for buying EV's and PHEV's in Germany:
EV 4,000.- euro
PHEV 3,000.- euro

It's for the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

15,000 new charging stations, and 5,000 of those will be fast chargers.

The German Government will spend a maximum amount of 1.2 billion euro.

 

[Spidy]

Incentives for buying EV's and PHEV's in Germany:
EV 4,000.- euro
PHEV 3,000.- euro

It's for the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

15,000 new charging stations, and 5,000 of those will be fast chargers.

The German Government will spend a maximum amount of 1.2 billion euro.

Government budget is 600million. The other half comes from manufacturers participating.

Also max base price to be eligible 60000€

 

[Benz]

It's a step in the right direction, and I sincerely hope that other countries in Europe will also take similar steps.

By the way, Nissan will add another 1,000.- euro on top of the 4,000.- euro for the Nissan Leaf or the Nissan E-NV200. People in Germany can buy a Nissan Leaf for less than 19,000.- euro (when they choose to rent the battery pack for 79.- euro per month). I prefer to see people buy a Nissan Leaf than an ICE.

And yes, it's too bad that they put a limit of 60,000.- euro to the base price. But this also means that even more people in Germany will put down a 1,000.- euro deposit for a Tesla Model 3 reservation.

 

[doctoxics]

Isn't the German program just for the German car companies contributing to the program? Is Nissan or any other non-German car company contributing and becoming a part of the incentive program in Germany?

 

[AustinPowers]

Isn't the German program just for the German car companies contributing to the program? Is Nissan or any other non-German car company contributing and becoming a part of the incentive program in Germany?

Actually, the details still seem to be a little vague. As yet only BMW, VW and Merc are said to have agreed to the program. Nothing from Opel as yet, even though the Ampera-e (Bolt) is supposed to start selling at the end of this year. Still, enough time to join.
I don't really expect Tesla to take part. Why should they? As long as their cars keep selling better than the German offerings even without any incentives...

 

[Benz]

One can only receive the Government incentives after the contract will have been signed in which it will be mentioned by how much the car manufacturer has lowered the price of the car.

Nissan will add an additional 1,000.- euro on top of the 4,000.- euro for the Nissan Leaf and for the Nissan E-NV200.

 

[RobStark]

Europe March YTD 2016
1 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 6.825
2 Nissan Leaf 5.967
3 Renault Zoe 5.838
4 Tesla Model S 3.390
5 Volkswagen Golf GTE 3.055
6 BMW i3 2.633
7 Volvo XC90 T8 2.503
8 Audi A3 e-Tron 2.272
9 Volkswagen e-Golf 2.217
10 BMW X5 40e 1,576


EV Sales: Europe March 2016

 

[schonelucht]

It's time for some new registration data. April will probably be a very weak month for Tesla in Europa. There may be some spilling from deliveries that didn't make it last quarter but other than that I would not be surprised if this is going to be the worst month since January 2015. The reason is aggressive batching by Tesla in an effort to make their quarterly numbers even with lagging model X production earlier this year.

In April, Tesla sold 96 Model S's in Norway (unofficial : http://elbilforum.no/forum/index.php/topic,5991.240.html), that's down q-on-q from 105 and down y-on-y from 230. Sweden reported 52 registrations, down from 75 y-on-y but up from 19 q-on-q.

 

[mrco]

Hi everybody. UK 2015 numbers were just published today. There has been a huge increase in Q4. With 800 units in Q4 registrations were more than double the estimate. Compared to 347 units in Q4 2014, that's an increase of 231%. Here is how the situation looks like:

Source (Excel file from gov.uk, 14 Apr 2016 )

You can find the latest 2015 EU sales table HERE. In that table you can see the UK was the second best performing country in Europe in Q4.

Inside the source file it says next update will be in June 2016. We won't know Q1 numbers until then. We need to use estimates. So I looked at Tesla's sales distribution in Europe in each quarter in 2015. It looks like this:

21% 3,453 Q1
23% 3,904 Q2
21% 3,517 Q3
35% 5,826 Q4
100% 16,700 2015

Based on that my estimate is (3453/5826)*800= 474 units for Q1 2016 UK (monthly average= 158 units). We can use this number until the update in June.

The SMMT (society of motor manufacturers) provides UK monthly registrations data by brand. Unfortunately the Tesla numbers are only included in 'Other Imports' but Tesla is the majority of this category as all but the very smallest brands supply data.
March numbers (http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/Cars_03_2016.zip) show 1018 'Other Imports' for Q1. As Other Imports (excluding Tesla) have averaged 240 over the last 3 years (the quarterly number has ranged from 150-400), you can assume that about 800 MS were delivered in the UK in Q1. This also corresponds to a comment made by UK Tesla management in January that they expected to deliver a similar number of UK cars in Q1 as in Q415.

 

[Benz]

Tesla Model S registrations/deliveries in The Netherlands in April 2016: 135.

Source: Dealer Support Net

 

[schonelucht]

As Other Imports (excluding Tesla) have averaged 240 over the last 3 years (the quarterly number has ranged from 150-400), you can assume that about 800 MS were delivered in the UK in Q1. This also corresponds to a comment made by UK Tesla management in January that they expected to deliver a similar number of UK cars in Q1 as in Q415.

Excellent news. Seems like the EU is becoming the new Norway/Netherlands/Switzerland. Why have sales perked up since the last quarter of 2015? Has the regulatory environment changed? New incentives? Is the Tesla infrastructure (superchargers and stores) finally in place to make the Model S a convenient choice in the UK? Have prices gone down?

One slight reservation : EAFO reports 321 Tesla's for the UK in 2016 YTD. The website used to say that their numbers for 2016 where only for Jan-Feb but it now explicitly says that issue has been resolved as of april 4th. So it looks like they claim 321 deliveries in the first quarter of 2016. Confusing.

 

[neroden]

You know, I've been running a little "when gas is cheaperto operate than electric" model for different gas prices. Looking at the Rystad chart, I'm realizing that once the upfront purchase price is the same (which model 3 does for half the car market), electric becomes cheaper essentailly regardless of gas price.

It's not possible to overcome the "higher upfront purchase price" aspect through pure market forces, however, since amortizing a US$10,000 purchase price over the lifespan of the car ends up raising the breakeven gasoline price way up into a range it will never reach ($6/US gallon or higher). This remains an important issue for the bottom end of the market. Additional taxes on the sale of gasoline cars would make the transition happen faster, so the countries which have these will probably transition *very* fast.

I would watch for countries which have either incentives for electric cars, or penalties for gasoline cars, as they basically drive the transition to electric cars downmarket, and should accelerate sales.

 

[mrco]

Excellent news. Seems like the EU is becoming the new Norway/Netherlands/Switzerland. Why have sales perked up since the last quarter of 2015? Has the regulatory environment changed? New incentives? Is the Tesla infrastructure (superchargers and stores) finally in place to make the Model S a convenient choice in the UK? Have prices gone down?

One slight reservation : EAFO reports 321 Tesla's for the UK in 2016 YTD. The website used to say that their numbers for 2016 where only for Jan-Feb but it now explicitly says that issue has been resolved as of april 4th. So it looks like they claim 321 deliveries in the first quarter of 2016. Confusing.

UK sales understandably rose in Q4 as that was the first full quarter of right hand drive dual motor deliveries (i.e. representing 1 year of dual motor orders). I was surprised Q1 was so strong but seems to be genuine demand growth, incentives have not increased. There are a couple more stores which must have helped, they're quite behind on supercharger roll-out here.

Re EAFO, they do state that these estimate latest month for UK (Data sources and reliability M1 vehicles | EAFO). My estimate is just an estimate but has been consistently close in previous quarters and it doesn't fit with comments from Tesla UK managt.

My estimate for April is 139 (219 'Other Imports' from SMMT, less historical average monthly non-Tesla 'Other Imports' of 80).