OT!
? I thought it was introduced in 2013?
Or are you confusing american model years with actual years?
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OT!
? I thought it was introduced in 2013?
Or are you confusing american model years with actual years?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I never said the all new S Class was introduced in calendar year 2014.
I identified the new S Class as model year 2014. And it is so in the USA and Europe. The W222 S Class debuted on May 15 2013 in Sindelfingen ,Germay and entered production in June 2013. And commenced sales in September 2013 both in Europe and the USA. It was and is the 2014 S Class. I did not confuse anything.
I identified the new S Class as model year 2014. And it is so in the USA and Europe. The W222 S Class debuted on May 15 2013 in Sindelfingen ,Germay and entered production in June 2013. And commenced sales in September 2013 both in Europe and the USA. It was and is the 2014 S Class. I did not confuse anything.
In EU, only production dates are relevant. If it is produced in 2013, it is officially a 2013 model. Just like Tesla.
Another good example of this is BMW. Afaik, the make model changes up to 4 times a year. So production date is what counts...
In my opinion, this model year crap should really end.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
Please inform me of any mistakes in the spreadsheet. I use http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ as the source for my numbers, and the rest of the numbers come from this thread.
Re-posting an updated version of my chart. It seems that Tesla is going to deliver around 3400 cars to Europe in this quarter. I also project that Tesla will deliver around 14,200 Model S to Europe this year with a quarterly break down of: 3056 cars in Q1, 3400 cars in Q2, 3800 cars in Q3, and 4000 cars in Q4. Tesla is expanding rapidly in Europe as they have 15 stores coming soon as well as 20 service centers coming soon. Also, the supercharger map for Europe shows 120+ locations for Winter 2014-2015. I suspect that European deliveries will continue to grow as there is expansion in the number of stores, service centers, and superchargers. Europe could grow to be the same deliveries as the US had in 2013, which would be about 18,000 deliveries. Also, in Europe, deliveries seem to be more reflective of demand than in the US. In addition the current wait time in all European countries is 4-5 months, which translates to a backlog of at least 4000 cars (potentially all the way up to 6000+).
Thanks Schonelucht for providing a link to Belgium numbers for April/May.
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I like your table, and your forecasts. Given the recent deliveries of RHD in UK, what are the UK numbers in your forecast for Q2, Q3 and Q4? Also, how many deliveries do you forecast for Norway?
With Norway, Netherlands and Germany number is out, it sounds TM only delivered 1K or slightly more in April and May to EU. So to meet 3400 forcast, a 2400 to go in June? Which is more than 2193 in March. Will see frantic delivery again by end of quarter? Really can't understand this delivery pattern especially 1K cars supposed to be in the pipe by end of Q1.
I suspect that the total for April and May in Europe will be close to 1100, leaving 2300 for March. I'm not sure whether March was an anomaly, or something that we will be seeing again. I saw your post about China having a frenzy-like delivery rate, which makes me less sure that Europe will be the same as in March. If there are 1000 deliveries in China in Q2, and 3400 for Europe, that leaves 3100+ for the US (which seems about right). I don't see 2000 cars in China given the information that you provided, but 1500 is certainly possible. It seems that there are about 500 cars that are either going to China (to make the total 1500) or to Europe (to make the total 3400). I PM'ed the guy who initially mentioned the delivery frenzy in Norway (towards the end of March) to ask whether he has anything about this month yet.
vgrinshpun visited the London store while on vacation and the representative told him that the current in-store order rate is 50 per week, and there is a 50/50 split between online and in-store orders, which means the order rate back in April was about 100 cars per week. Elon Musk also said during the Sky News interview in UK that UK could become the 3rd, 4th, or 5th largest market in the world for the Model S. China and US will probably be the top 2, and depending on how Norway and Germany (aggressive build out in Germany currently) pan out, the UK will be the 3rd, 4th, or 5th largest market in the world.
I cannot say how Tesla will expand specifically in the UK market and Norway because the two of them are the largest wildcards in Europe.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
"aggressive build out in Germany"... yeah, the numbers are indeed truly impressive.
57 Model S were registered in May (48 April, 143 March)
Compared to
171 BMW 7 series
173 VW Phaeton (seriously? 3:1 outsold by the Phaeton? that hurts)
211 Porsche Panerama
252 BMW 6 series
274 Audi A8/S8
355 Audi A7/S7/RS7
395 Mercedes CLS
905 Mercedes S (!!!!!)
It did outsell the Maserati Quatroporte (19) and the Bentley Continental (33)
I continue to be absolutely puzzled by the people talking up the success in Germany and the amazing market this will be.
I guess the one silver lining is that Model S is up ~20% while the "Upperclass" (Oberklasse) of cars overall was up only 2%
I'm too lazy to go back but I remember the posts after the 143 in March talking about the doubling month over month. Which gets us to 570 cars in Mai, right? Hey, only off by a factor of ten.
But who's counting. Clearly not the people who keep talking about what a great market Germany is for the Model S.
Sorry if I sound snarky. But clearly the data don't support the hype.
57 Model S were registered in May (48 April, 143 March)
Compared to
171 BMW 7 series
173 VW Phaeton (seriously? 3:1 outsold by the Phaeton? that hurts)
211 Porsche Panerama
252 BMW 6 series
274 Audi A8/S8
355 Audi A7/S7/RS7
395 Mercedes CLS
905 Mercedes S (!!!!!)
It did outsell the Maserati Quatroporte (19) and the Bentley Continental (33)
I continue to be absolutely puzzled by the people talking up the success in Germany and the amazing market this will be.
I guess the one silver lining is that Model S is up ~20% while the "Upperclass" (Oberklasse) of cars overall was up only 2%
I'm too lazy to go back but I remember the posts after the 143 in March talking about the doubling month over month. Which gets us to 570 cars in Mai, right? Hey, only off by a factor of ten.
But who's counting. Clearly not the people who keep talking about what a great market Germany is for the Model S.
Sorry if I sound snarky. But clearly the data don't support the hype.
I doubt the current data would be of much use. In March, they had 2 weeks at the end of the month with about 100 deliveries per day. The cars might not have arrived yet.
Another addition for your spreadsheet, courtesy of fellow forum member Hans69 who delivers updated numbers for Belgium here : http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-S-in-NL/page3?p=677698&viewfull=1#post677698
April 2014 10
May 2014 44
Dirkhh, you seem to be missing the point. Tesla doesn't "build out" deliveries, they build out infrastructure such as stores, service centers, and superchargers. Do you really think Tesla is spending so much on this infrastructure just to be selling a little more than the Quttroporte and the Continental? Also, in the German market, foreign manufacturers need another component other than great cars, and that is time. The German market loves its own cars, and it takes more time than any other market to convince them to buy a foreign car. Obviously Tesla plans to try to challenge other automakers here because otherwise, they wouldn't build out such a network. You might make the argument that Germany gets more attention because it is the largest country in terms of population in Europe currently. However, it wouldn't make sense for Tesla to build out stores, service centers, and superchargers if there are no underlying sales or potential sales, regardless of population size of the country.
Also, just because deliveries are low in the first two months of the quarter, doesn't mean anything. June is the deciding month because like March, it is the last month of the quarter. Mark my words, June could bring 200 deliveries in Germany.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
I don't think I'm missing your point at all. I just disagree with it. The investment in Germany is admirable and a necessary requirement for success, but it is not creating a commensurate return. The Portland store delivered more Model S last month than all of Germany. There is a long long long thread elsewhere about all the reasons why Tesla is underperforming in Germany. Opening more stores is not going to address those.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Yeah it's also underperforming in china and England. Very few cars delivered. Hong Kong a disaster no cars delivered. Depends on your time frame doesn't it
I do find it interesting that, no so many months ago, Elon was touting Germany as a high priority market for Tesla. China now seems to be the darling, although Tesla does continue to invest in building out the SC network in Germany. Has Tesla shifted focus away from Europe to Asia (the "pivot to Asia"?)
Chickenlittle
Banned
He did state a priority and is still treating it as such. Perhaps German pride underestimated but still staying the course. There is need to build out superchargers there for the rest of Europe anyway. I believe they will have success but will take time. There is risk of not concentrating on single area but I do not believe inconsistent with treating both Asia and Europe as priorities
pz1975
Active Member
He did make those quotes while he was in Germany. Maybe it was a bit of grandstanding for the locals? Not that I don't think Germany is important to Tesla, but I don't see why it necessarily has to be THE most important market with so many others with amazing potential - China, UK, eventually Japan, India...
Are you telling me Tesla is wasting money opening new stores? They are opening more stores, service centers, and supercharging stations just to sell the same amount of cars? Elon did tell his team to spend money as fast as they could, but he also said not to waste it. In my books, opening more stores without creating more demand is a waste of money. Also, I stress again that a key component in Germany is time; buyers must be completely convinced that a foreign product is worthy because of national pride, and that takes time. Germany is currently the 4th largest market for Tesla in the world, and although that will change as the UK and China come online, Germany deliveries will continue to grow.
There is another point. Most of the Model S bought in the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland (plus from all the other countries) and Norway will drive on the German Autobahn quite frequently. A dense SC coverage in Germany is a big plus for those markets! Borders here are quite open these days....
You guys have to be patient b4 seeing more Teslas on the autobahns. Its like tryin to sell cheese in Switzerland or France.
Germans also tend to analyse everything thoroughly b4 they can accept it. I think with more superchargers to come the sales numbers of model s will go up significantly. One big reason is Germans love free charging supplied by Tesla since the gas prices here are extremly high.
Germans also tend to analyse everything thoroughly b4 they can accept it. I think with more superchargers to come the sales numbers of model s will go up significantly. One big reason is Germans love free charging supplied by Tesla since the gas prices here are extremly high.
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