EU Market Situation and Outlook

[Lessmog]

There is a report here : Nyregistreringar mars 2015
Select the months via Nyregistreringar per mnad


However that still shows 98 for March. (a nice number for Sweden anyway)

122 Tesla Model S levererade i Mars!!! - Tesla Club Sweden published this morning says 122 delivered in March.
Bilsweden has a cutoff date some days before end of month, so another 24 cars were found in the official statistics direct from Trafikverket, or ELIS or PowerCircle (both behind a paywall, apparently). 38+12+122 Model S delivered in Sweden Q1-15! I make that 172.

 

[Fanatic]

Will someone compile all data now gathered? Spreadsheet maybe? I don't know how to.:redface:

 

[Matias]

Europe Q1 2015 Model S sales - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

 

[Model 3]

With March added in I expect about 2500-2700 e-Golfs in Q1 (I don't have the exact e-Golf sales number for March yet, just the Golf total).

Seems to be fairly accurate. My number is 2818 e-Golf's for Q1, but that includes used imports.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

There is a report here : Nyregistreringar mars 2015
Select the months via Nyregistreringar per mnad
However that still shows 98 for March. (a nice number for Sweden anyway)

122 Tesla Model S levererade i Mars!!! - Tesla Club Sweden published this morning says 122 delivered in March.
Bilsweden has a cutoff date some days before end of month, so another 24 cars were found in the official statistics direct from Trafikverket, or ELIS or PowerCircle (both behind a paywall, apparently). 38+12+122 Model S delivered in Sweden Q1-15! I make that 172.

Gerardf and Lessmog, thanks for your input!

Here is the Model S registration data from all registration data files from Sweden from January till March:

I can find the cummulative number for January + February + March registrations at 138 (green ellipse) new vehicle registrations.
98 registrations in March is tripling the monthly registration number YoY already!
Unfortunately I can not find the "extra" registrations mentioned above to get to 172 new vehicle registrations.

I suggest to take the official data as input for the European Delivery Table for Q1.
As soon as we get any confirmation on the "extra" registrations, we can count the "extra" registrations as well.
Just as a reminder: We should not get carried away with our wishes here, the calculation should be as relyable as possible (no speculation).
A difference of 44 vehicles sold translates to a sum of about 4000000$.

 

[Borka]

Here is the Model S registration data from all registration data files from Sweden from January till March:
View attachment 76751
I can find the cummulative number for January + February + March registrations at 138 (green ellipse) new vehicle registrations.

That's againt from bilSweden's report and they have from what I understand an early cut of date. Basically the last days of delivery will spill over to next month. It's better to use the statistics gathered from the site elbilsstatistik.se.

cheers

cheers

 

[matbl]

Thanks for posting registration data for Sweden!

The March number is up big compared to January (29) and March (10).
Do you have a source for the registration data?
Is there a web site?

We can only add delivery numbers to the European Q1 delivery table if we have a source.
Only way to be able to show where big total number for Europe is coming from in the end.

Startsida - Elbilen i Sverige
they use data from the official car registry which bil sweden doesn't. So I think this is more accurate.

 

[Fanatic]

Europe Q1 2015 Model S sales - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

ok thx

 

[Lessmog]

Here is the Model S registration data from all registration data files from Sweden from January till March:
View attachment 76751
I can find the cummulative number for January + February + March registrations at 138 (green ellipse) new vehicle registrations.
Unfortunately I can not find the "extra" registrations mentioned above to get to 172 new vehicle registrations.

I suggest to take the official data as input for the European Delivery Table for Q1.
As soon as we get any confirmation on the "extra" registrations, we can count the "extra" registrations as well.

Yes, but your source appears to be the same as Bilsweden.se who truncate each month around the 25th or so, missing a few cars each month. Those uncounted cars add up to greater errors if they are not added back into the cumulative totals. That's just bad statistics, sorry! I think this completely explains the difference in this year's numbers. 38-29, 12-11, 122-98 is our discrepancy, exactly.

Now, I don't seek out these sources myself, but the guy I quoted above (Tibor) does follow them. Let me quote him directly in case you didn't follow the link above:

Förra månaden lyckades Tesla Motors leverera hela 122 Tesla Model S till sina svenska kunder! Inte nog med att det är högsta månadssiffran någonsin – det innebär att antal Teslor i ett slag ökat från 324 till 446 bilar! Det är mer än de tre sista månadernas leveranser tillsammans.

Tesla Motors personal har slitit i stort sett dag och natt, vardag som helg, med att leverera bilarna. De stora leveransvolymerna, långtradare efter långtradare med bilar, kom dessutom mot slutet av månaden. Slutspurten de sista dagarna innebar att bilsweden.se – vars siffror fastställs några dagar innan månadsslut – endast fick med 98 bilar i sin månadsstatistik. elbilsstatistik.se däremot, som hämtar sina siffror direkt från vägverkets databas först vid månadsskiftet hittade 24 bilar till som registrerades de sista dagarna i Mars!

 

[Gerardf]

After the good news more on Tesla developments as published in Sweden yesterday..

Google Translate

Note the new Cooperation resulting in the Nissan Model 3 and Musk's "Unveiling of the DD""

 

[ev-enthusiast]

After the good news more on Tesla developments as published in Sweden yesterday..

Google Translate

Note the new Cooperation resulting in the Nissan Model 3 and Musk's "Unveiling of the DD""

Amazing!
Finally another major car company paying for use of Tesla SuperChargers for their EVs (... only on April 1st?!)!

 

[virtuesoft]

I emailed the DVLA data team to see if they could provide numbers for the UK. They couldn't provide any numbers for this quarter. However, they did tell me that they provide lagging statistics on licensed cars by make and model, per quarter on their website, in Table VEH0120...

All licensed vehicles and new registrations (VEH01) - Statistical data sets - GOV.UK

Unfortunately it only has data up to Q3 2014. Q4 2014 should be updated later this month. However, here are the numbers they have since the Model S was released in the UK...

Q2 2014 = 192
Q3 2014 = 282 (the spreadsheet shows 474, but this is the cumulative value)

I'm not sure if these numbers have been mentioned before. We won't find out how many cars were sold in the UK during Q1 2015 for another few months, but if we assume it is at least as much as Q3 2014 we have quite a nice addition to the EU total.

 

[Gerardf]

Belgium March 2015 : 139 (Was 81 in 2014).

Belgium Q1-2015 is 200 (Was 136 in 2014)

Source : http://febiac.web4pro.com/nl_mon_brand.xls

 

[schonelucht]

Q2 2014 = 192
Q3 2014 = 282 (the spreadsheet shows 474, but this is the cumulative value)

Excellent news. I previously estimated (and mentioned here) respectively 170 and 231 for these numbers so we are not far off from our estimates.

 

[dirkhh]

The Kraftfahrtbundesamt in Germany has released summary numbers for March. Tesla is not broken out in those numbers, the "Sonstige" (others) category climbed 46% yoy to 1954.
The detailed data which include Tesla usually are released a day or two later...

 

[Gerardf]

The Kraftfahrtbundesamt in Germany has released summary numbers for March. Tesla is not broken out in those numbers, the "Sonstige" (others) category climbed 46% yoy to 1954. The detailed data which include Tesla usually are released a day or two later...

Another hint in the press release :

1.278 Elektrofahrzeuge wurden neu zugelassen – ein Plus von +55,3 Prozent.

Source : Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 08/2015 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im März 2015

 

[dirkhh]

Another hint in the press release :

1.278 Elektrofahrzeuge wurden neu zugelassen – ein Plus von +55,3 Prozent.

Source : Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 08/2015 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im März 2015

For the non-German speakers: 1,278 electric cars were first registered, an increase of 55.3%

 

[hobbes]

Put new numbers for Belgium, UK (estimate of 280 for Q1 14 total after 282 in Q3 2014) - I think estimates are o.k. as we mark them as such and this way the cumulative total is closer to the real number than leaving UK out completely.

Makes 3331!

Anyone got numbers for Denmark and Switzerland? I think we will end up at more that 3500 in the end .

- - - Updated - - -

The Kraftfahrtbundesamt in Germany has released summary numbers for March. Tesla is not broken out in those numbers, the "Sonstige" (others) category climbed 46% yoy to 1954.
The detailed data which include Tesla usually are released a day or two later...

Unfortunately, there is a holiday, then a weekend, then another holiday... so we have to wait at least until Tue next week. Not that I wasn´t looking forward to having a few days off, but it is a looong wait for the numbers.

 

[smac]

I emailed the DVLA data team to see if they could provide numbers for the UK. They couldn't provide any numbers for this quarter. However, they did tell me that they provide lagging statistics on licensed cars by make and model, per quarter on their website, in Table VEH0120...

All licensed vehicles and new registrations (VEH01) - Statistical data sets - GOV.UK

Unfortunately it only has data up to Q3 2014. Q4 2014 should be updated later this month. However, here are the numbers they have since the Model S was released in the UK...

Q2 2014 = 192
Q3 2014 = 282 (the spreadsheet shows 474, but this is the cumulative value)

I'm not sure if these numbers have been mentioned before. We won't find out how many cars were sold in the UK during Q1 2015 for another few months, but if we assume it is at least as much as Q3 2014 we have quite a nice addition to the EU total.

Yep I'd posted them earlier in this monster thread

UK details historically come out around 10th-12th of April for the previous year. So less than 2 weeks until we find out total 2014 UK deliveries. Bear in mind Q3'14 included some early pre-ordered cars (mine included, which got delivered in July) so it may be a little higher than a "run rate" month with no new product.

One guy that picked his car up last week was told they'd almost hit 1000 cars since launch in the UK by his delivery specialist. TBH this sounds about what I was expecting. i.e. 750 last year, and 250-ish on the last boat (the cars just delivered).

Bear in mind too no D cars are scheduled here until late August (so into Q3'15 figures), so a fair chunk of orders have been pushed back. I would imagine a lot of people will postpone delivery until the new plate, so we may not see many of the D cars until September, but I'd expect a bit of a bump as there is pent up orders for both the P85D and the S85D.

 

[Wenche]

122 Tesla Model S levererade i Mars!!! - Tesla Club Sweden published this morning says 122 delivered in March.
Bilsweden has a cutoff date some days before end of month, so another 24 cars were found in the official statistics direct from Trafikverket, or ELIS or PowerCircle (both behind a paywall, apparently). 38+12+122 Model S delivered in Sweden Q1-15! I make that 172.

I think there is a possibility that a few of the Swedish cars are second hands, imported from Norway. I understand the register to count all new registrations in Sweden of cars newer than 3 years old. Anyway not very many, in my opinion.