European BEV Sales 2020 - Tesla down to nr 3 and share down by 10%

[Medved_77]

According to this there are only 652 ID3 in the UK:

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/volkswagen_id3_1st_edition

Compare that to 30,500 Model 3:

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/?utf8=✓&q=tesla+model+3

This site uses the vehicle licensing statistics from the DfT. Quite a difference in numbers on the road, I'm assuming the ID3s at the dealers are untaxed until sold.

 

[Glan gluaisne]

According to this there are only 652 ID3 in the UK:

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/volkswagen_id3_1st_edition

Compare that to 30,500 Model 3:

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/?utf8=✓&q=tesla+model+3

This site uses the vehicle licensing statistics from the DfT. Quite a difference in numbers on the road, I'm assuming the ID3s at the dealers are untaxed until sold.

IIRC, the Model 3 was first sold here around June 2019, wasn't it? If so, then it's been available here for about 20 months. I can't recall the exact date, but think that pre-orders for the Model 3 in the UK opened some time in 2016.

The ID.3 was first sold here a fair bit later. IIRC, it didn't appear here until last autumn, so around 6 months ago. Also, pre-orders for the VW ID.3 didn't open here in the UK until spring 2019, some three years after pre-orders opened for the Model 3.

Certainly doesn't account for the difference, but I know from personal experience (I ordered an ID.3 in the spring of 2019) that VW had major issues with getting the first cars out. I cancelled my ID.3 order mainly because I didn't like the interior, following the unveiling at Frankfurt in autumn 2019, and that coincided with the Model 3 becoming available here, hence the reason I bought one.

 

[Medved_77]

IIRC, the Model 3 was first sold here around June 2019, wasn't it? If so, then it's been available here for about 20 months. I can't recall the exact date, but think that pre-orders for the Model 3 in the UK opened some time in 2016.

The ID.3 was first sold here a fair bit later. IIRC, it didn't appear here until last autumn, so around 6 months ago. Also, pre-orders for the VW ID.3 didn't open here in the UK until spring 2019, some three years after pre-orders opened for the Model 3.

Certainly doesn't account for the difference, but I know from personal experience (I ordered an ID.3 in the spring of 2019) that VW had major issues with getting the first cars out. I cancelled my ID.3 order mainly because I didn't like the interior, following the unveiling at Frankfurt in autumn 2019, and that coincided with the Model 3 becoming available here, hence the reason I bought one.

Yes, Model 3 has certainly been available for longer (first handful of deliveries in Q2 '19), I was just surprised that the reported numbers of ID3 in the UK weren't more substantial but I see that the site doesn't have the numbers for Q4 2020 yet so would expect to see a big jump when that data is available to report on.

 

[Peteski]

IIRC, the Model 3 was first sold here around June 2019, wasn't it? If so, then it's been available here for about 20 months. I can't recall the exact date, but think that pre-orders for the Model 3 in the UK opened some time in 2016.

The ID.3 was first sold here a fair bit later. IIRC, it didn't appear here until last autumn, so around 6 months ago. Also, pre-orders for the VW ID.3 didn't open here in the UK until spring 2019, some three years after pre-orders opened for the Model 3.

Certainly doesn't account for the difference, but I know from personal experience (I ordered an ID.3 in the spring of 2019) that VW had major issues with getting the first cars out. I cancelled my ID.3 order mainly because I didn't like the interior, following the unveiling at Frankfurt in autumn 2019, and that coincided with the Model 3 becoming available here, hence the reason I bought one.

I think quite a few people jumped ship due to ID.3 delays and slightly disappointing spec. But it still makes a cheaper alternative to a Model 3 to those coming from a Golf TDi and specifically looking for a hatch. I haven't seen a single ID.3 on the road yet, while Model 3s are now a relatively common sight.

 

[Cnixon]

Lots of weird cherry picking in this thread. European market share is pretty meaningless. The only thing that matters is how many cars they sell globally.

Tesla doesent have any issues. It doesent nead ZEV credits to survive. It's building 2 new factories. And its soaking up most of the worlds supply of batteries.

So unless the "competition" can magic up some nickel out of thin air I don't see how anything can "compete" in a meaningfull way.

The article itself "Tesla domination disrupted", please, Tesla sold 500,000 EVs globaly in 2020, VW did 212,000. Nissan did 500,000 for the entire history of the company....

2021 Tesla will sell in excess of 750,000 globally. VW will maybe do another 250,000.

But sure, the Tesla market share in Shropshire will be "disrupted" because one of the local villagers bought a VW instead.

This post summed up how I felt by page 2. If only I could give an "informative", "thumbs up" AND funny as I finally did. By page 5 I began to feel the whole thread is funny. Thanks Yev000.

 

[Cnixon]

it doesn’t sound like you understand it at all. The dealer margin is used to create competition between franchise dealers. Musk wanted control over the “dealers” and to avoid the market mechanics where buyers had choice over where to buy even if it was the same ultimate product. It probably explains why Tesla throw cars at buyers with no PDI etc because you get the same dreadful experience everywhere. If you got treated like that at a VW dealer you’d never use them again but you still might buy a VW just from a different dealer. The list price and discount game is also to give people that feeling they blagged a deal, it’s becoming like the never ending DFS sale but walking out a show room thinking you’ve just saved a month’s salary on your new car feels much better than the soulless experience of three clicks online as if it was an Amazon purchase

...and my prediction is by the end of the decade all manufacturers will follow the Tesla model... starting with Mercedes.

 

[mnobleuk]

The counter argument:

The chart clearly shows the trend line for Tesla to peak around the end of 2019 and start of 2020. Every other car maker suffered from COVID and experienced factory closures. All but PSA show a covid induced weakening in Q2. Tesla were running incentives at the end of the year to desperately boost sales and sell of inventory, they still have 2020 spec inventory for sale, its not like they had nothing to sell.

Your conspiracy theory also doesn't address renault etc or why Hyundai is virtually the same and why PSA have shot up from nowhere.

It doesn't say to me that Tesla is in difficulty, it just says to me that Tesla should be valued around the same as normal car manufacturers which is still massively impressive. Does that chart really suggest to anyone that Tesla is worth the sum of all those car companies, and quite a few not shown, added together?

Time and again the opposite of being a Tesla Bull is to accuse people of being Anti Tesla whereas for me its just bringing in a dose of realism.

The counter argument:

The chart clearly shows the trend line for Tesla to peak around the end of 2019 and start of 2020. Every other car maker suffered from COVID and experienced factory closures. All but PSA show a covid induced weakening in Q2. Tesla were running incentives at the end of the year to desperately boost sales and sell of inventory, they still have 2020 spec inventory for sale, its not like they had nothing to sell.

Your conspiracy theory also doesn't address renault etc or why Hyundai is virtually the same and why PSA have shot up from nowhere.

It doesn't say to me that Tesla is in difficulty, it just says to me that Tesla should be valued around the same as normal car manufacturers which is still massively impressive. Does that chart really suggest to anyone that Tesla is worth the sum of all those car companies, and quite a few not shown, added together?

Time and again the opposite of being a Tesla Bull is to accuse people of being Anti Tesla whereas for me its just bringing in a dose of realism.

Well then don't make the mistake of assuming I'm an out and out bull

I'm a little offended by you labelling my post a conspiracy theory - that's just mud slinging without bringing anything to the discussion.

I also wasn't trying to explain why other manufacturers were able to deliver cars, just why Tesla wasn't.

Not every car maker suffered from COVID in the same way. Q2 was completely wiped out for Tesla because the factory was closed for the small window for European manufacture. Other manufacturers were still able to manufacture & deliver in that quarter and it didn't represent a total bust for them. This does explain why the other manufacturers were able to maintain consistent deliveries. (Also PSA have shot up from nowhere because they have reached an agreement with MG to include MGs in their figures).

I'm not aware of anything other than a few thousand supercharging miles being offered which doesn't sound desperate to me.

Finally on VW selling cars to itself, this from Der Spiegel over the weekend :

Volkswagen has boosted sales of its electric cars with tens of thousands of own registrations. This emerges from calculations by the environmental organization Greenpeace . According to this, VW has approved 20.5 percent of all pure e-vehicles and 21.7 percent of all plug-in hybrids in Europe on itself or the dealers - a total of over 65,000 electrified cars

Finally - no I don't see why that justifies the stock price either.

 

[Glan gluaisne]

Finally - no I don't see why that justifies the stock price either.

It seems that the Tesla stock price bears little relationship to the companies ability to manufacture cars. The total global output of Tesla cars is less than that from a single Toyota car plant, for example, and despite Tesla's selling well they are still only a tiny proportion of all new cars. For example, Tesla sold just under 500,000 cars in 2020. Toyota sold about 10,000,000 cars, about 20 times the production of Tesla, yet Toyota is valued at only around $173.3 billion, versus Tesla's ~$783.36 billion.

 

[pdk42]

It seems that the Tesla stock price bears little relationship to the companies ability to manufacture cars. The total global output of Tesla cars is less than that from a single Toyota car plant, for example, and despite Tesla's selling well they are still only a tiny proportion of all new cars. For example, Tesla sold just under 500,000 cars in 2020. Toyota sold about 10,000,000 cars, about 20 times the production of Tesla, yet Toyota is valued at only around $173.3 billion, versus Tesla's ~$783.36 billion.

That's true - but the qualification to add is clearly that EV production has a constraint that ICE cars don't have - the manufacture of batteries. If Tesla have a significant production or supply capacity in that space then whether Toyota have made 10m ICE cars is not is irrelevant.

 

[Zakalwe]

It seems that the Tesla stock price bears little relationship to the companies ability to manufacture cars.

Why would it be?

For example, Tesla sold just under 500,000 cars in 2020. Toyota sold about 10,000,000 cars, about 20 times the production of Tesla, yet Toyota is valued at only around $173.3 billion, versus Tesla's ~$783.36 billion.

For a starter, one is a "first mover" in a brand new field and the other is the last mover in an established field that has a limited lifespan left for it's primary products.
A bit like comparing the Ford Motor in 1910 to the biggest horse-saddle manufacturer of the time.