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European BEV Sales 2020 - Tesla down to nr 3 and share down by 10%
- Thread starter pdk42
- Start date
Well I remember when people freaked out over the iPhone only having one button, but it still caught on in the end. My 11 and 8 year old kids can find their way around aTesla touchscreen like it’s the most natural thing in the world. They are future buyers and they won’t be wanting buttons all over the place!
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
I must be the odd one out. I've never, ever, borrowed money to buy a car, nor had one on hire purchase, a lease, or any other money-making enterprise aimed to make something more expensive. My grandmother was fond of quoting Polonius (from Hamlet): "Neither a borrower nor a lender be, for loan oft loses both itself and friend, and borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry."
If I've not been able to afford something, I either go without or wait until I've saved enough to buy it. Not owning a car around here (in more normal times) means not going anywhere. It wouldn't be practical to live here and work anywhere nearby without a car, unless you happen to work on one of the local farms and live in a tied cottage on the farm. Public transport is infrequent, although there is a community operated minibus service that operates twice a day, but that's really to get to the shops, so isn't timed for normal working hours.
I can understand those living in places well-served by other forms of transport not bothering to get a car. My nephew has lived in London his whole life, didn't pass his test until he was in his early 30's and still doesn't own a car, he only took his test so he could hire one from time to time. It may well be that autonomous ride sharing will eventually operate in rural areas, but a lot will hinge on how much it costs. A return taxi trip to the nearest supermarket costs between £45 and £55 at the moment, so that's probably about the price to beat for any alternative.
In rural areas, things may well get much worse, as autonomous transport starts to operate in urban areas, I think. The local bus service, such as it is, makes a pretty heavy loss on most of the rural routes, so relies on the volume of passengers in urban areas to keep it profitable. If those passengers are lost to autonomous ride sharing vehicles, then rural public transport will either just stop operating, or get a lot more expensive. I suspect it will end up being a choice between owning a car or using a taxi for a time, until autonomous vehicles are both technically capable, and affordable, as rural transport.
If I've not been able to afford something, I either go without or wait until I've saved enough to buy it. Not owning a car around here (in more normal times) means not going anywhere. It wouldn't be practical to live here and work anywhere nearby without a car, unless you happen to work on one of the local farms and live in a tied cottage on the farm. Public transport is infrequent, although there is a community operated minibus service that operates twice a day, but that's really to get to the shops, so isn't timed for normal working hours.
I can understand those living in places well-served by other forms of transport not bothering to get a car. My nephew has lived in London his whole life, didn't pass his test until he was in his early 30's and still doesn't own a car, he only took his test so he could hire one from time to time. It may well be that autonomous ride sharing will eventually operate in rural areas, but a lot will hinge on how much it costs. A return taxi trip to the nearest supermarket costs between £45 and £55 at the moment, so that's probably about the price to beat for any alternative.
In rural areas, things may well get much worse, as autonomous transport starts to operate in urban areas, I think. The local bus service, such as it is, makes a pretty heavy loss on most of the rural routes, so relies on the volume of passengers in urban areas to keep it profitable. If those passengers are lost to autonomous ride sharing vehicles, then rural public transport will either just stop operating, or get a lot more expensive. I suspect it will end up being a choice between owning a car or using a taxi for a time, until autonomous vehicles are both technically capable, and affordable, as rural transport.
It's an age thing.
Younger people are used to paying monthly for everything. I'm not saying that they are profligate, just that a.monthly.payment is more "natural" to them.
To many of the olds amongst us (I'm including myself in my early 50s) paying on the never-never was rarely something to be proud off.
Younger people are used to paying monthly for everything. I'm not saying that they are profligate, just that a.monthly.payment is more "natural" to them.
To many of the olds amongst us (I'm including myself in my early 50s) paying on the never-never was rarely something to be proud off.
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justinhow
Member
This is not about whether a touch UI is inherently bad - I agree it is not, however this is missing that huge difference that with a car (as opposed to a phone) you are driving at the same time, you are not supposed to be navigating around a a touch screen to adjust the heating whilst doing 70 on the motorway. Indeed it is illegal to use a phone in the car whilst driving simply because it is distracting you from what you are supposed to be 100% focused on.
I am not trying to deride the whole Tesla interface (I like it in many ways) but think most potential buyers (not early adopters) would prefer a few more knobs/buttons presented for the commonly used stuff and that this may be a deal breaker for quite a few. This certainly appears to be VW's view with their id range - and no I don't like their tomtom like UI.
I completely agree. Autonomous driving doesn’t interest me in the slightest, which is just as well because despite the Musk’s posturing it’s not going to be here anytime soon.
It would, though, be nice to have a reliable form of adaptive cruise control (which I’ve enjoyed for several years) for long, boring motorway drives but Tesla seem incapable of providing this.
Various other niggles mean that when I change my car in 18 months I will almost certainly not be getting another Tesla.
I have no doubt that many many people want to keep all the physical knobs and buttons they are used to finding in their cars. Simply because people are creatures of habit and generally oppose change. Especially most older people.
But with the way Tesla have handled things like heater controls, it really isn’t an issue using a touchscreen UI. Plus things like Nav and audio are far easier to operate via touchscreen. Combined with the scroll wheels on the steering wheel it all works very well for me. Much better than fumbling about in the dark trying to find some obscure button to press.
FSD does have it's benefits for sure. I am thinking M25, what a stupid and ridiculous road that is (in fact, all motorways are) with all issues and frustrations exclusively caused by the human. It's not a pretty or exiting road and it's sole purpose is to get me from point A to point B quickly. Weirdly, the concept couldn't be simpler ... traffic only going one way only, at decent speeds, with the only interruption being cars entering and exiting.
This is where FSD makes total sense, but it will only work if ALL cars have it. Hand over control to the machine, let it take care of getting you from your entry to your exit, organise other cars to slot in. If that works, the speed can easily be 100mph or more. No more jams, no accidents.
Anyone seen the film "Timecop"? Jean Claude van Damme gets in his car at the end of a working day and says "drive me home". All cars then communicate and get on with it.
This is where FSD makes total sense, but it will only work if ALL cars have it. Hand over control to the machine, let it take care of getting you from your entry to your exit, organise other cars to slot in. If that works, the speed can easily be 100mph or more. No more jams, no accidents.
Anyone seen the film "Timecop"? Jean Claude van Damme gets in his car at the end of a working day and says "drive me home". All cars then communicate and get on with it.
I agree FSD on M25 could be useful but only if majority have it. Otherwise I will only buy if I am forced to!
Autopilot - I have 3 cars with "autopilot"
My 2020 model 3 is the worst and most dangerous as it does silly things like phantom braking.
The system on my 2018 ICE Volvo V40 is the best, closely followed by my 2020 Kia Soul EV.
The Soul only loses because the regen is manually adjustable.
The V40 is by far and away the safest!
Autopilot - I have 3 cars with "autopilot"
My 2020 model 3 is the worst and most dangerous as it does silly things like phantom braking.
The system on my 2018 ICE Volvo V40 is the best, closely followed by my 2020 Kia Soul EV.
The Soul only loses because the regen is manually adjustable.
The V40 is by far and away the safest!
interbear
Active Member
Tesla dropping market share as traditional ICE vendors switch to EV is surely as inevitable as inevitable can be? They’ve had the EV market to themselves for years so have dominated, but this will be increasingly impossible. So the numbers are no surprise to me. As long as volumes and profitability increase as the overall market grows, I doubt Tesla are going to worry about market share too much, and this was always Elon’s intent anyway wasn’t it, to see more and more EVs on the planet.
I love my Model 3 but the reality is that if other vendors find a way to match Tesla (1) range and (2) charging network, I will certainly look at them when it comes to change. I usually change cars when the warranty expires so that’s about 3 years away for me. By then I expect there to be many more credible competitors. Like many others here I am not interested in FSD, fart mode etc, so would happily change to a more solidly built EV with better customer service and TACC that works properly/safely if the range and charging network were on par. It’ll be nice to have genuine choice.
I love my Model 3 but the reality is that if other vendors find a way to match Tesla (1) range and (2) charging network, I will certainly look at them when it comes to change. I usually change cars when the warranty expires so that’s about 3 years away for me. By then I expect there to be many more credible competitors. Like many others here I am not interested in FSD, fart mode etc, so would happily change to a more solidly built EV with better customer service and TACC that works properly/safely if the range and charging network were on par. It’ll be nice to have genuine choice.
Losing market share was inevitable as the competition came in, but the chart at the beginning of this was falling sales in Europe in a market that is growing rapidly. It would appear the whole market growth and some is being consumed by the competition.
I thought one of the arguments for the Tesla share price was the dominant leader in the EV space, 3rd place and falling doesn't bear that out. I don't think they were particularly capacity constrained last year either, they ended the year with a fair bit of inventory and they were throwing free FSD trials and a year of free supercharging to grab as many sales as they could at the close of the year, neither of those are behaviours you'd expect for a company who can't make their product fast enough. I think Tesla will long term end up "just another car maker" with volumes at maybe BMW levels which is still no bad achievement but not the world dominance some have predicted.
I'm sure they'll get a boost towards the end of the year when EU MY production starts but its going to be pretty late in the year so we can expect to see plenty more headlines of the competition apparently pulling ahead in sales terms in Europe when we're really just waiting for the new models to arrive and in the US it will be the reverse which will fuel the for and against lobby throwing charts at each other to substantiate their point. But 2021 is going to see more new models coming from the old school, you don't need to personally like the looks of the new BMW evs for instance to accept they'll sell plenty of them.
I thought one of the arguments for the Tesla share price was the dominant leader in the EV space, 3rd place and falling doesn't bear that out. I don't think they were particularly capacity constrained last year either, they ended the year with a fair bit of inventory and they were throwing free FSD trials and a year of free supercharging to grab as many sales as they could at the close of the year, neither of those are behaviours you'd expect for a company who can't make their product fast enough. I think Tesla will long term end up "just another car maker" with volumes at maybe BMW levels which is still no bad achievement but not the world dominance some have predicted.
I'm sure they'll get a boost towards the end of the year when EU MY production starts but its going to be pretty late in the year so we can expect to see plenty more headlines of the competition apparently pulling ahead in sales terms in Europe when we're really just waiting for the new models to arrive and in the US it will be the reverse which will fuel the for and against lobby throwing charts at each other to substantiate their point. But 2021 is going to see more new models coming from the old school, you don't need to personally like the looks of the new BMW evs for instance to accept they'll sell plenty of them.
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
I don't believe Tesla have ever thought that they would be a mass volume car manufacturer, on a par with companies like Toyota. That's a view that some Tesla fans have made up, I think, as all Elon Musk has ever said was that he wanted Tesla to show that EV technology was viable, and encourage a shift in the market to EVs. Arguably Tesla have done that. Given that Tesla don't offer a car that fits into the big volume sales sector here, in terms of size and price, and given that other manufacturers are now starting to move into that market, it seems inevitable that Tesla will lose market share.
The best selling EVs are likely to be those that are smaller than the Model 3 and sell for around £30k or less. Until such time as the rumoured Model 2 hits the European market, Tesla has nothing to offer those looking to buy a car like this. For example, my wife's decided to replace her Toyota Yaris hybrid, and wants to make the shift to an EV. She wants a hatchback, around the size of the Yaris (she's always had hatchbacks around this size). Her choice will be between a Renault Zoe, a Peugeot e-208 or, most probably, the slightly bigger VW ID.3.
The best selling EVs are likely to be those that are smaller than the Model 3 and sell for around £30k or less. Until such time as the rumoured Model 2 hits the European market, Tesla has nothing to offer those looking to buy a car like this. For example, my wife's decided to replace her Toyota Yaris hybrid, and wants to make the shift to an EV. She wants a hatchback, around the size of the Yaris (she's always had hatchbacks around this size). Her choice will be between a Renault Zoe, a Peugeot e-208 or, most probably, the slightly bigger VW ID.3.
I think the pandemic has had a pretty big effect here. We delayed buying our Model 3 specifically because of the first lockdown. Tesla also had no new model releases in 2020. So I am not surprised Tesla sold more cars in 2019 vs 2020.
Sales of cars in general was well down in 2020. The huge percentage gains in BEV sales made by other manufacturers were largely due to new model releases (effectively comparing against a zero 2019 baseline) and almost none of them were competing directly against Tesla. The ID3 is already heavily discounted from its list price, so clearly not selling as well as VW would have hoped.
If you compare pretty much any car that was on sale throughout both 2019 and 2020 you will see an inevitable reduction in 2020 sales. The whole European market is over 30% down year on year.
Sales of cars in general was well down in 2020. The huge percentage gains in BEV sales made by other manufacturers were largely due to new model releases (effectively comparing against a zero 2019 baseline) and almost none of them were competing directly against Tesla. The ID3 is already heavily discounted from its list price, so clearly not selling as well as VW would have hoped.
If you compare pretty much any car that was on sale throughout both 2019 and 2020 you will see an inevitable reduction in 2020 sales. The whole European market is over 30% down year on year.
The graph is simply designed to hide what really happened and demonstrate that "Tesla is in difficulty" - citing "Europe" as the canary in the coal mine. Its been widely circulated on short selling sites.
A few points :
1. Tesla builds cars for Europe early in the quarter so they arrive in that quarter (but in the latter months). The chart carefully shows a rolling average where it could simply show cumulative sales - if it showed cumulative sales you would see that Q2 "sales" were close to 0 - because the factory was closed at the start of the quarter due to Covid. No cars = no sales. IMO this graph *deliberately* hides this.
2. ID.3s were being built and sold all year but VW couldn't register them until they were supplied to owners - which was delayed until the end of the year due to software issues.
3. At the same time as selling ID.3s VW were selling off the car it replaced (eGolf) at huge discounts
4. VW were offering large discounts (up to £5k) to shift cars before the end of the year
5. VW record registrations, Tesla record actual sales to customers. Therefore the VW figures include cars "pre registered" and sitting at dealerships & leasing companies hence large discounts on "pre registered" vehicles.
6. If the graph showed cumulative sales you would see that when Teslas arrive in Europe they are sold immediately.
The real proof will be this year when Tesla start building in Germany. The 10% import duty on US cars immediately disappears as well as other more complex tax reductions (e.g. VAT on european components can be offset against VAT on the car).
A few points :
1. Tesla builds cars for Europe early in the quarter so they arrive in that quarter (but in the latter months). The chart carefully shows a rolling average where it could simply show cumulative sales - if it showed cumulative sales you would see that Q2 "sales" were close to 0 - because the factory was closed at the start of the quarter due to Covid. No cars = no sales. IMO this graph *deliberately* hides this.
2. ID.3s were being built and sold all year but VW couldn't register them until they were supplied to owners - which was delayed until the end of the year due to software issues.
3. At the same time as selling ID.3s VW were selling off the car it replaced (eGolf) at huge discounts
4. VW were offering large discounts (up to £5k) to shift cars before the end of the year
5. VW record registrations, Tesla record actual sales to customers. Therefore the VW figures include cars "pre registered" and sitting at dealerships & leasing companies hence large discounts on "pre registered" vehicles.
6. If the graph showed cumulative sales you would see that when Teslas arrive in Europe they are sold immediately.
The real proof will be this year when Tesla start building in Germany. The 10% import duty on US cars immediately disappears as well as other more complex tax reductions (e.g. VAT on european components can be offset against VAT on the car).
The counter argument:
The chart clearly shows the trend line for Tesla to peak around the end of 2019 and start of 2020. Every other car maker suffered from COVID and experienced factory closures. All but PSA show a covid induced weakening in Q2. Tesla were running incentives at the end of the year to desperately boost sales and sell of inventory, they still have 2020 spec inventory for sale, its not like they had nothing to sell.
Your conspiracy theory also doesn't address renault etc or why Hyundai is virtually the same and why PSA have shot up from nowhere.
It doesn't say to me that Tesla is in difficulty, it just says to me that Tesla should be valued around the same as normal car manufacturers which is still massively impressive. Does that chart really suggest to anyone that Tesla is worth the sum of all those car companies, and quite a few not shown, added together?
Time and again the opposite of being a Tesla Bull is to accuse people of being Anti Tesla whereas for me its just bringing in a dose of realism.
The chart clearly shows the trend line for Tesla to peak around the end of 2019 and start of 2020. Every other car maker suffered from COVID and experienced factory closures. All but PSA show a covid induced weakening in Q2. Tesla were running incentives at the end of the year to desperately boost sales and sell of inventory, they still have 2020 spec inventory for sale, its not like they had nothing to sell.
Your conspiracy theory also doesn't address renault etc or why Hyundai is virtually the same and why PSA have shot up from nowhere.
It doesn't say to me that Tesla is in difficulty, it just says to me that Tesla should be valued around the same as normal car manufacturers which is still massively impressive. Does that chart really suggest to anyone that Tesla is worth the sum of all those car companies, and quite a few not shown, added together?
Time and again the opposite of being a Tesla Bull is to accuse people of being Anti Tesla whereas for me its just bringing in a dose of realism.
Tesla end of year sakes incentives consisted of an FSD trial and free supercharging, neither of which were even mentioned until after delivery. Not a single penny discount off list price. I could have picked up a pre-reg ID3 with at least £5k discount.
Tesla share price is what it is, despite all of the efforts short sellers made to bring it down. And you can’t say they didn’t try!
The problem I see for all the traditional manufacturers is that their current business model is rapidly going down the pan. What future value is there now in all their ICE technology? Before Tesla came along they were hoping that hybrids would be the future, but that now looks less and less likely.
Actually I suspect that the available discount has nothing to do with poor sales - it’s just the way the market works for legacy manufacturers. No one pays full price for a VW, Audi, BMW, Vauxhall etc. I bought my A6 when the latest model had just been released, and I secured a 22% discount using an online broker.
The same broker I used shows at least a 10% discount over pretty much the whole VW range, and often the discount is much higher, e.g. a Passat at 22% and a Touran at 20%.
There are significant discounts on EVs from other manufacturers. As an example:
BMW i3 8%
Jaguar I-PACE 8%
Peugeot 208 11%
Audi e-tron 12%
Nissan Leaf 16%
Renault Zoe 21%
Against that, the 10% discount available on an ID3 doesn’t look anything unusual or exceptional, even for a new model, and certainly doesn’t suggest poor sales.
Glan gluaisne
Active Member
Same here. I bought a Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid when the dealer knew I needed a car very quickly (my previous car had just been written off - their workshop had assessed it as a write-off). In theory, they had me over a barrel. Brand new model, they knew I wanted it, and knew I was in a difficult position, with no car (other than the hire car the other party's insurer had provided). Despite this I got a sizeable discount off list price, plus the usual goodwill gestures (mats, making up my personal plates, etc). They even chucked in a Type 2 to Type 1 charge cable for free (although it was a crappy Rolec one).
No one pays list price for a new car, apart from people buying Teslas. All dealers discount to some degree, always have done (unless they recognise a numpty that always agrees to pay list price). Comparing list prices has always been fraught with difficulty, because of the wide variation in discounts offered, although some of the online car sales outlets have made that a lot easier, by showing clearly how much discount they will give.
No one pays list price for a new car, apart from people buying Teslas. All dealers discount to some degree, always have done (unless they recognise a numpty that always agrees to pay list price). Comparing list prices has always been fraught with difficulty, because of the wide variation in discounts offered, although some of the online car sales outlets have made that a lot easier, by showing clearly how much discount they will give.
I’m well aware of discounting to shift euro boxes so that dealers can hit their sales targets and earn manufacturer bonuses. I’m just a bit surprised to see them already doing the same with EVs that have much smaller profit margins. Probably more a compliance thing and selling at a loss.
Franchise dealers must be bricking themselves with the move to EVs. It was already a very marginal business model with ICE sales and service.
You’re incorrect. The free supercharging was widely known to get people to buy and take delivery.
it’s also wrong to say there were no discounts. All MIC M3 SR+ inventory had about a 10% reduction, there were non in the uk as MIC weren’t shipped to uk then, but in Europe there were plenty. Excess China production sent to Europe to get it sold, if they were sent to meet demand, why discount?. This started in Nov.
Tesla were also discounting 2020 new inventory to shift them, smaller discounts on zero mile cars and bigger incentives on demo cars they needed off their books.
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