EV Market Share

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Here is a contrarian viewpoint... not sure I would agree given VW's poor track record of slipping production timelines.

Analyst: VW On Track To Pass Tesla As Top Global EV Brand By 2025

VW Group believes it can exceed Tesla's global EV market share by 2025. Analysts at LMC Automotive say the automaker is already on track to make it happen.

insideevs.com

"VW Group says it will launch some 70 battery-powered vehicles across the globe by 2030. It has more recently added that it plans to beef up its US EV sales strategy in a big way. This came after Volkswagen became aware of President Biden's plan to help promote EV adoption. According to analysts at LMC Automotive, VW is already on track to overtake Tesla's global market share by 2025. However, such a forecast is quite difficult at this time since Tesla is in the process of building two new factories, one in Texas and one in Germany. Both are supposed to open for production prior to the end of 2021.

Added to this, Biden's plan didn't pass as originally advertised. There's hope that reconciliation can help add important measures that will strengthen EV sales in the US, but there's no guarantee. Tesla has been selling a record number of cars even though its vehicles are no longer eligible for the US EV tax credit. In addition, the brand continues to raise prices due to skyrocketing demand. With 70 electric vehicles coming from VW by 2030, there's a good chance it will eventually catch up with Tesla. However, 2025 is a very lofty goal. Where will Tesla be in 2025? 2030? Will it have even more factories across the globe? Will it finally have many more models on the market? There are so many unanswered questions here that make LMC Automotive's forecast seem risky."

its remarkable that actual analyst, who are paid to be good at analysis, believe that Tesla won’t expand production past Texas and Berlin. Especially since Elon has been explicit about expansion.

the level of blockheads covering Tesla is really astonishing

 

[RobStark]

its remarkable that actual analyst, who are paid to be good at analysis, believe that Tesla won’t expand production past Texas and Berlin. Especially since Elon has been explicit about expansion.

the level of blockheads covering Tesla is really astonishing

I read on TMC how can Rivian ever be worth $80B if they are only an electric Land Rover?

As if there is some law that prohibits Rivian from going down market and eventually making a competitor to the Rav4 and Maverick. And Rivian is developing their own autonomous software internally.

How can Lucid ever be worth $35B when they only sell a luxury sedan? Lucid has already shared plans with investors direct competitors with S3XY+Cybertruck. And Powerwall and Megapack.

Some analyst think Tesla will forever only sell premium priced vehicles. Because why ruin the brand image that gets high margins with a popularly priced vehicle?

 

[Doggydogworld]

If you want to see plug-in hybrids included, see the article. I think we're past due on turning focus to BEV competition. Indeed, BEVs are outselling PHEVs about 2.3 to 1. BEV penetration of the auto market is now 6.1%.

PHEVs were 26% of EVs in 2019, a bit over 31% in 2020 and 33% the first half of 2021. They're more than 50% in Europe.

Here is a contrarian viewpoint... not sure I would agree given VW's poor track record of slipping production timelines.

Analyst: VW On Track To Pass Tesla As Top Global EV Brand By 2025

VW Group believes it can exceed Tesla's global EV market share by 2025. Analysts at LMC Automotive say the automaker is already on track to make it happen.

insideevs.com

VW Group sold 210k EV in Q2 vs. 201k for Tesla. I had them penciled in for 225-250k this quarter, but chip supply will have the final say. They're still behind Tesla YTD, due to ID4 bombing out in China. They are still roughly 50% PHEVs, despite Diess's best efforts.

 

[jhm]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1443938029706559499

Norway tells a particularly useful picture of rise of EVs.

Globally plug-in EV pentration now is about 8.7%. This is roughly where Norway was in 2013. It's taking Norway about 8 years to reach 85% (63% BEV and 22% PHEV).

Early on in this 8 year history, PHEVS were able to grab some market share from BEVs, but it appears that BEVs is the bigger driver displacing traditional ICEVs. Ordinary hybrids seem to hang on to a fairly stable share of the auto market.

BEV penetration is now so substantial that to continue to take more share bEVs will need to take some share from PHEVs. My prediction is that in the coming 2 years (by 2023), we will see PHEV market share decline. Diesel and gasoline will also continue to decline, but already at just 9% share, there are not may points left to lose to BEV.

My view on PHEVs is merely that they are transitory. Initially, they help complement the BEV options and tend to satisfy EV compliance needs of automakers. But my biased belief is that ultimately BEVs will drive them out of the market along with all vehicles having an engine. Maybe I'm wrong on this, but Norway gives us visibility about 8 years ahead of the rest of the world. So let's see if PHEVs can defend their share of the Norwegian market against the onslaught of BEVs.

 

[RobStark]

VW China does not sell ID vehicles from Volkswagen dealerships but is opening up ID Stores aping Tesla in design and locations.

At the end of May 2021 VW had 12 ID Stores in China and is hoping to have 100 stores by the end of the year.

You can't sell 600k ID(Chinese capacity from 2 factories) cars per year or 250k ID cars through May through 12 stores and VW Chinese website.

Focus: Reality check for VW in China after sluggish start for electric car series

Volkswagen AG's (VOWG_p.DE) ID series - the backbone of its electric vehicle ambitions - is off to what even company sources call a worryingly slow start in China.

www.reuters.com

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla (TSLA) announces Q3 2021 deliveries: a new record of 241,300 electric cars

Today, Tesla (TSLA) released its Q3 2021 delivery and production numbers – confirming it achieved again new records. The automaker managed to deliver 241,300 electric vehicles during the last quarter. Earlier this month, we reported on CEO Elon Musk telling employees in a company-wide call that...

electrek.co

"It looks like this quarter’s delivery wave was successful as Tesla reported record deliveries of 241,300 electric cars in Q3 2021. That’s a new record – beating the previous one of 201,250 deliveries achieved just the previous quarter (Q2 2021). It’s actually significantly more than Tesla produced in Q3 despite production also achieving new records:

	Production	Deliveries	Subject to operating lease accounting
Model S/X	8,941	9,275	20%
Model 3/Y	228,882	232,025	6%
Total	237,823	241,300	7%

Expectations were high on Wall Street. A poll of analysts showed that industry watchers were expecting 222,700 vehicle deliveries from Tesla in Q3 2021 on average. Therefore, Tesla significantly beat those expectations. Finally, Tesla also shows a significant ramp-up of Model S production with almost 9,000 units compared to just 2,340 units the previous quarter when it only just started production of the new version of its flagship electric sedan. Tesla is expected to add new Model X production to the mix during this quarter. Between that and new Model Y production at Gigafactory Texas and Berlin expected to come online by the end of the year, Tesla should exit 2021 with an annual production rate of over 1 million electric vehicles."

 

[jhm]

I'm not counting on Tesla delivering 1 million units this year. I think 900k is doable, as it requires just 272,650 in Q4. To get much beyond that would seem to require strong ramp up at Giga Berlin and Giga Texas. I'd like to see a good start there, but hitting another 100k in production in Q4 is not critical for me.

Rather, I'd like to see Tesla comfortably deliver 1.5 million in 2022. So I'd like to see the combination of Berlin and Texas be able to deliver 500k in 2022. Giga Berlin is particularly critical for reclaiming some EV share in Europe.
Bringing the Cybertruck to the US market will also be critical in maintaining a super dominant (more than 2/3 share) position. Specifically, having a wide diversity of products is critical to maintain high demand over the long run. Consumers don't all want a white Model Y. Then for China, I'm hoping we see the Shanghai designed Model 2 emerge. Maybe that's more 2023 for volume, but I'd like to see more tangible progress on this in 2022.

 

[jhm]

This seems relevant to the EV market race...

Tesla News and Reviews | InsideEVs

Get the latest on new Tesla models including spy shots, first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features and more.

insideevs.com

According to Adamas Intelligence, in the first half of 2021 the total global battery capacity deployment onto roads in all newly sold passenger xEVs combined amounted to 108 GWh (up 157% year-over-year).

The battery deployment is much quicker than the increase of new xEV registrations (4.16 million - up 109% year-over-year, form 1.99 million in H1 2020), which means that the average battery capacity per vehicle increased by about 23%.

I would stress that the average battery capacity (from Hybrid, plug-in hybrids and BEVs) grew 23% per car. This suggests a potential a shift from hybrids to BEVs as well as BEV competing on range. One basic disadvantage that OEMs with lots of hybrids and PHEVs is that they start out with a very low batter capacity per vehicle so to really compete in the BEV space they have to seriously scale up their battery supply. If Tesla wants to double its unit sales it roughly needs 100% more automotive batteries, but traditional OEMs might need to increase batteries by about 150% to double their electrified unit sales. This disadvantage of traditional OEMs would become even more pronounced were the battery supply chain to hit a major bottleneck delaying the time it takes to double the supply.

 

[mspohr]

This seems relevant to the EV market race...

Tesla News and Reviews | InsideEVs

Get the latest on new Tesla models including spy shots, first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features and more.

insideevs.com

I would stress that the average battery capacity (from Hybrid, plug-in hybrids and BEVs) grew 23% per car. This suggests a potential a shift from hybrids to BEVs as well as BEV competing on range. One basic disadvantage that OEMs with lots of hybrids and PHEVs is that they start out with a very low batter capacity per vehicle so to really compete in the BEV space they have to seriously scale up their battery supply. If Tesla wants to double its unit sales it roughly needs 100% more automotive batteries, but traditional OEMs might need to increase batteries by about 150% to double their electrified unit sales. This disadvantage of traditional OEMs would become even more pronounced were the battery supply chain to hit a major bottleneck delaying the time it takes to double the supply.

I think market share boils down to battery availability. Tesla has been most proactive in building and buying battery capacity. None of the ICEmakers have the battery capacity to make very many EVs so I think their market share will be constrained by lack of batteries.

 

[RobStark]

I think market share boils down to battery availability. Tesla has been most proactive in building and buying battery capacity. None of the ICEmakers have the battery capacity to make very many EVs so I think their market share will be constrained by lack of batteries.

All the global legacy OEMs plan to buy batteries in China for the Chinese market. There will probably be sufficient amounts.

VW and Stellantis-Mercedes-Total SA is planning for 240 GWh each for the RoW for passenger vehicles, not Semis or BES.

GM is planning 4 GF of 35-40 GWh size in North America. The Ohio GF building is just about finished and shovel in ground in Tennessee is imminent. Again GWh will not siphoned off for BES or Semis.

Ford has just signed a JV with South Korea Innovations for 3 GF inside the USA with total capacity of 129 GWh. 1st factory to start pumping out batteries in 2025. In Europe Ford is using VW MEB to manufacture BEVs, not sure if they will tap VW European supply.

Renaul is planning a JV with Envision for a French GF of 24 GWh and another JV with Verkor for 10 GWh of "high performance battery cells" also located in France.

Hyundai seems to think they have the inside track for cells from the S Korean manufactures LG Energy Solutions, Samsung SDI, and SKI

It is hazy what the Japanese Automakers and Panasonic have going on.

Indian automakers have a lot of talk but not a lot of action.

So that is ~800 GWh/year internal production by 2030 for Western Automakers for passenger vehicles outside of China.

Tesla plans 2 TWh internal production and 1 TWh procurement per year by 2030 for global passenger and commercial vehicles plus BES.

SKI is building at least 20 GWh in the USA by themselves. So is LG Energy Solutions. Samsung may form a JV with Rivian or may go it alone. Or do both in the USA.

NorthVolt is building a Swedish GF with 150 GWh with 20 GWh committed to VW. It will also build another 20 GWh in Germany in a JV with VW.

 

[mspohr]

All the global legacy OEMs plan to buy batteries in China for the Chinese market. There will probably be sufficient amounts.

VW and Stellantis-Mercedes-Total SA is planning for 240 GWh each for the RoW for passenger vehicles, not Semis or BES.

GM is planning 4 GF of 35-40 GWh size in North America. The Ohio GF building is just about finished and shovel in ground in Tennessee is imminent. Again GWh will not siphoned off for BES or Semis.

Ford has just signed a JV with South Korea Innovations for 3 GF inside the USA with total capacity of 129 GWh. 1st factory to start pumping out batteries in 2025. In Europe Ford is using VW MEB to manufacture BEVs, not sure if they will tap VW European supply.

Renaul is planning a JV with Envision for a French GF of 24 GWh and another JV with Verkor for 10 GWh of "high performance battery cells" also located in France.

Hyundai seems to think they have the inside track for cells from the S Korean manufactures LG Energy Solutions, Samsung SDI, and SKI

It is hazy what the Japanese Automakers and Panasonic have going on.

Indian automakers have a lot of talk but not a lot of action.

So that is ~800 GWh/year internal production by 2030 for Western Automakers for passenger vehicles outside of China.

Tesla plans 2 TWh internal production and 1 TWh procurement per year by 2030 for global passenger and commercial vehicles plus BES.

SKI is building at least 20 GWh in the USA by themselves. So is LG Energy Solutions. Samsung may form a JV with Rivian or may go it alone. Or do both in the USA.

NorthVolt is building a Swedish GF with 150 GWh with 20 GWh committed to VW. It will also build another 20 GWh in Germany in a JV with VW.

Lots of "plans" for 2030 still don't add up to what Tesla can make from existing factories.
ICEmakers will struggle to ramp up production. They need these batteries by 2025 or they will be out of business.
I don't think they can count on the Chinese.

 

[RobStark]

Lots of "plans" for 2030 still don't add up to what Tesla can make from existing factories.
ICEmakers will struggle to ramp up production. They need these batteries by 2025 or they will be out of business.
I don't think they can count on the Chinese.

You need plans before you can make BEVs

800 GWh can make way more than Tesla can from existing factories.

Tesla has/is struggling to ramp up production.

Unless the Chinese plan to eat BEV battery cells they can count on those for the Chinese market. Tesla is also counting on suppliers in China.

Maybe Nissan and some of the weakest automakers will be out of business by 2025 but not VW,GM,Ford or Stellantis.

 

[mspohr]

You need plans before you can make BEVs

800 GWh can make way more than Tesla can from existing factories.

Tesla has/is struggling to ramp up production.

Unless the Chinese plan to eat BEV battery cells they can count on those for the Chinese market. Tesla is also counting on suppliers in China.

Maybe Nissan and some of the weakest automakers will be out of business by 2025 but not VW,GM,Ford or Stellantis.

 

[RobStark]

He just pulls numbers out of his ass.

He projects improvements and increasing economies of scale for Tesla but none for everybody else.

Tesla will have to deal with Unions in Germany.

The foreign automakers with factories in the American South are also non Union. Detroit companies building factories in the South also operate under the same Right To Work laws as Tesla.

Tesla has to deal with "Californication" in Fremont. No one else does. They left long ago.

Outside the US there are no similar franchise dealer laws.

Tesla does face the same legal frame work in China as everyone else. Many OEMs have purchased a controlling interest in their JV with Chinese companies.

 

[jhm]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445946677546782721

Excellent post by @jrp007.

According to Kelly Blue Book, the average transaction price of autos in August 2021 is up 9.6% y/y to $43,355. Tesla is at $54,547 ATP, up just 0.2% y/y.

This is really quite extraordinary. I'm delighted that Tesla has been able to avoid inflation in this challenging year. But I cannot believe that 9.6% is a typical level of inflation for the auto industry.

I do take this a evidence that supply constraints, especially chips, are actually reducing the supply of autos. Specifically, it is to be expected that if major producers are supply constrained, they will prefer to prioritize higher profit models and otherwise raise prices. Moreover, if the supply is reduced, it is to be expected that consumers are willing to pay more for available autos. So 10% higher prices is consistent with supply constraints.

That said, I do believe that the EV Osborne effect can also be in play. But I think there is a producer side to this. Producers need to ditch low margin vehicles fated to obsolescence. OEMs will need to leverage the more profitable ICE models to be cash engines to help fund the transition to EVs. The supply chain disruption at the present moment is pressing the issue. Low margin models are deadweight, and now is the most convenient moment to cast them aside. Chip shortage is a great cover story. Tesla has been busy adapting to newer chips. Could other OEMs do this re-engineering work too? Maybe, but if a model is already obsolete, why invest the R&D into upgrading their chips? OEMs attempting to transition to EVs need to focus R&D resources to EV models, not obsolete low margin ICE models. From the producers perspective, if the supply of obsolete products tightens, the pent up demand in its wake will derisk ramping up the new tech products.

Whether this is a conscious strategy or just a response to supply chain disruption, at least a tight ICE market means demand can shift more quickly to EV and there will be fewer IVE vehicles in the fleet for EVs to replace.

 

[RobStark]

Low margin ICE vehicles tend to be small and underpowered vehicles.

High MPG vehicles to satisfy CAFE obligations.

In other words compliance ICEv.

GM didn't enjoy selling Sparks for a $200 loss.

The smart strategy for the Detroit OEMs is replace low margin small underpowered ICE compliance vehicles with high margin high power big BEVs. Hummers Lightnings etc.

The visuals aren't as dramatic for the European OEMs but VW makes much more money on Porsches than Polos. In Europe they don't have CAFE but CO2 grams/km. Different unit of measure but same effect.

 

[mspohr]

The smart strategy for the Detroit OEMs is replace low margin small underpowered ICE compliance vehicles with high margin high power big BEVs. Hummers Lightnings etc.

If they can get batteries.

 

[RobStark]

If they can get batteries.

There is only one company on Earth that can procure batteries.

 

[jhm]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446061839641686018

Gary Black tries to explain how institutional investors use EV Adoption and Tesla EV Share to model Tesla's deliveries. I and other folks try to explain how ratios don't determine deliveries, but production and delivers determine adoption and share ratios. At any rate, it's good to know how these cats think.

 

[mspohr]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446061839641686018

Gary Black tries to explain how institutional investors use EV Adoption and Tesla EV Share to model Tesla's deliveries. I and other folks try to explain how ratios don't determine deliveries, but production and delivers determine adoption and share ratios. At any rate, it's good to know how these cats think.

They don't understand that Tesla is production constrained.