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Factory is shut for the week of July 27 for retooling for model X?
- Thread starter throwawayaccount
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- Model X
Because they are in financially much more solid shape now, and because building press/demo cars that you have no intention of selling allows you to work the bugs out of the manufacturing process before you have to start shipping cars to customers.
Not saying that they *will* do this. Just providing reasons why they might.
NigelM
Recovering Member
You don't give the press cars that were used to debug a production line; you give them pristine, perfect cars once everything is tried and tested. Also Tesla doesn't need the press to test a car that has a 30k reservation backlog already. Better to have the press test the car in a few months time.
I don't think the Founders cars for the referral program will be built at the same time as the true Founders series. These will essentially be Signature models only with a "Founders" tag instead. The details of the program state the offer to configure a Model X will not be sent until all 10 referrals take delivery of their Model S. Since they have until the end of October to order under the program, it may be December or later until the last eligible participants meet the requirements for receiving a Founders Model X. Tesla will certainly be well into Model X production at this point and likely already be delivering to early standard reservation customers. Thus, it is hard to discern exactly what impact the promotion will have on the Model X production timeline.
Those who know, do not speak. For example mods do know, they could check an IP etc. But they won't tell you :tongue:
Those who speak, do not know. For example, you! You implied this by actually saying "I think we now know"
As for what actually the truth, well, let me quote Ismail Haniyeh,
"Some people think that the truth can be hidden with a little cover-up and decoration. But as time goes by, what is true is revealed, and what is fake fades away.
I think Bob Marley said it best: "You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time". :smile:
Of course, I only jest, since there isn't any news to really disseminate or talk about. I think I'll call this lull in my life the "Pre-X" years.
That's the glass half full view.
The glass half empty view is that they won't be done delivering Founders cars until late in October...
The glass half empty view is that they won't be done delivering Founders cars until late in October...
Blastphemy
Member
Agreed. Also to add, Eds claimed Tesla would build Founders and press mostly at first, then a few hundred deliveries. If that was an accurate view, it would fit into this IF Eds is accurate (a big if). However, it is worth noting "high-gear" can't mean maximum capacity of course, not because it is unlikely anyway but because these initial car numbers won't be in the thousands. If one believes OP is claiming that, then OP is wrong. I don't think OP was necessarily claiming that, though, but expressing things finally starting properly. I think people may have read "high-gear" a bit too literally.
I too am just assessing the plausibility of the claims - not making any claims of their correctness. Only time will tell the latter.
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They also might build a few fully specced extra Founders at the same time as other Founders, put them on inventory for a couple of months, bump them into a pole and then sell those to winner(s) eventually.
This is plausible too. Eds, though, claimed press cars were in the initial pool - and competitors show pre-production cars to press all the time, so I don't feel we can completely rule out the opposite either.
Nice tidbit, thanks. Possible - though it is quite plausible they would re-tool for both that and Model X.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Eds also claimed there'd be zero deliveries in Q3, which is somewhat in contradiction to this entire thread. He also implausibly claimed that Tesla would build a few hundred press cars.
(Just noting that Eds changed his location to yours AR, sure it's not you? :wink
Eds also claimed there'd be zero deliveries in Q3, which is somewhat in contradiction to this entire thread. He also implausibly claimed that Tesla would build a few hundred press cars.
(Just noting that Eds changed his location to yours AR, sure it's not you? :wink
You are absolutely right of course about those contradictions. I, as you know, don't share your exact interpretations of various leaksters and posters but look at them - shall we say - little more benignly, allowing for the human factor in wordings and all. As far as I can tell, the OPs point was start of production proper, Eds' was the delays in parts manufacturing and thus the nature of of the earliest manufacturing being limited in number and consisting of prototype parts in part.
Both fundamental messages could be right, even if the posters limited views and wording can contain flaws too. They could be right about some things and wrong on others. Both can be completely wrong, too, of course - but I don't see that as a black or white issue. The nature of leaks is second-hand information, limited scope of view and broken telephone issues. It comes with the territory. IMO our task here is to look at the data overall and distil what is plausible (or even likely) and what is not.
Neither Eds or the OP are me. I have this one account on TMC. I also have no NDA with Tesla. The only Tesla secrets I know of have come to me from second-hand sources and have nothing to do with this - or Eds - thread topics. Sorry.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Eds also claimed there'd be zero deliveries in Q3, which is somewhat in contradiction to this entire thread. He also implausibly claimed that Tesla would build a few hundred press cars.
(Just noting that Eds changed his location to yours AR, sure it's not you? :wink
Just like people complain that the service centers/stores never get updated info from Tesla HQ, yet are ready to believe everything a Tesla employee in one of those locations tells them ... people believe what they are ready to believe and discard information from the exact same source that doesn't fit with their predetermined beliefs.
I love people. And this forum. And long walks on the beach. And sunsets. And ... oh, never mind. Where's that X?
NigelM
Recovering Member
Neither Eds or the OP are me. I have this one account on TMC. I also have no NDA with Tesla. The only Tesla secrets I know of have come to me from second-hand sources and have nothing to do with this - or Eds - thread topics. Sorry.
MRD applies? ;-)
While I agree there are even studies saying no facts can alter established world-views of many individuals, I'm not sure it applies to this conversation.
I think it is important to make two distinctions:
1) Willingness to consider all sources does not equal believing all of them - or considering them likely. At times the only reasonable conclusion is inconclusion - not making an either/or judgement on a source. Where data lacks, making a too hasty call is hardly accurate. It isn't what we don't know that gets us, it is what we know but just ain't so.
2) Attempts to analyze sources in detail, seeing what could fit and what perhaps not - with understanding of the imprecise nature of leaks does not automatically equate cherry picking factoids to fit personal wishes or views. Sometimes it is honestly what it is: Acknowledging all sources are imprecise and human, thus requiring interpretation as part of their analysis.
I have absolutely no other desire in Model X pre-production conversation than to develop better and better data - as we enjoy the enthusiast conversation. Add to it as we hear more, correct previous findings as we learn different. Trying to fake something would run totally counter to this idea.
I think what Bonnie is saying is true and I've seen it a lot in this forum and the official Tesla forum. I don't think Bonnie is necessarily talking about you, AR, but in general to most (not all) people in these two forums. For example, I've seen cases where people take a specific line from Elon Musk, then put their interpretation on it and ignore all other contradicting information. They set their hopes on this and get disappointed when it doesn't come to fruition.
AR, you're using the forums in a different way.
I have no idea what that means and a quick Google didn't help.
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That is true, of course, it happens. See my reference to studies in my message.
But I am hoping this particular thread is actually beyond that, at least for the active ponderers in past few pages.
I don't know quite what that means, but certainly the press was able to test drive Model S production cars very early in the signature delivery process.
I may be misremembering, but I thought there were reviews the summer of 2012... But maybe I'm off and those came the summer of 2013... Actually wait, no, I remember the Car of the year award going to them in 2012, because at that time I was still waiting on my car and kept getting assurances at the event that it was "coming".
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