Fair to say the Model 3 killed Hydrogen!

[macpacheco]

I expect better of Toyota than to chase a sunk cost fallacy. You should too.
Thank you kindly.

Until CARB incentives are gone, Toyota will gladly keep low investments on Mirai just for the credits and the publicity.
If I recall, each FCV sold by Toyota gives them about 150% of the benefit of an EV, no matter how useless that FCV is to their customer.
It doesn't really matter to them if H2 is ultimately a dead end. What matters is how it helps the next few quarters bottom line. And I'm not sure Toyota actually believes H2 is a dead end.
Matter of fact, I'm in favor of just killing the ZEV+CARB credits altogether (but keep the punishment for their gas guzzlers).
And increase the ceiling in ZEV purchase incentives until half a million units/manufacturer (in the USA).
The companies that are serious about building EVs get just a fraction of their benefit (cause they build no ICVs), while the large companies that only do compliance EVs get the full credit.
Look at the whole forest rather than just a few shiny trees.
Toyota believes in hybrids. They already sell in pretty good numbers.
The benefits are per unit. The cheaper each unit is, the better. Even if a Prius gives them half as much benefits of an EV, and its profitable to them, that's all they will be serious about doing.
Until Model 3 starts eating away at Prius sales, Toyota will keep the current game.
But I'm certain that behind the scenes, they are readying an EV to *try* to compete with Model 3.

 

[SageBrush]

Toyota believes in hybrids. They already sell in pretty good numbers.
The benefits are per unit. The cheaper each unit is, the better. Even if a Prius gives them half as much benefits of an EV, and its profitable to them, that's all they will be serious about doing.

And well they should. Hybrids are not the future but they are a fantastic choice for the present.
My Prius Prime is a general purpose car that averages over 100 mpg lifetime in our household. While people are ranting that it has an ICE, my neighbor is running around in a 20 mpg vehicle. Oh... and after tax credits I paid $17k for the Prime.

Forgive me, but criticizing a car that reduces emissions some 80% of the norm and is hands down THE best value available is more than ridiculous. I'm very much looking forward to a Model 3 but my wife wants to keep the Prime and for good reason.

 

[Topher]

Hybrids are not the future but they are a fantastic choice for the present.

From the standpoint of people owning them (and even buying them new), sure. But for car companies looking for projects to make for release in 2020? Not so much.

Thank you kindly.

 

[macpacheco]

And well they should. Hybrids are not the future but they are a fantastic choice for the present.
My Prius Prime is a general purpose car that averages over 100 mpg lifetime in our household. While people are ranting that it has an ICE, my neighbor is running around in a 20 mpg vehicle. Oh... and after tax credits I paid $17k for the Prime.

Forgive me, but criticizing a car that reduces emissions some 80% of the norm and is hands down THE best value available is more than ridiculous. I'm very much looking forward to a Model 3 but my wife wants to keep the Prime and for good reason.

If I could have a Prius at half the price of a M3, I would certainly get the Prius instead.
But here in Brazil we don't have any incentives to buy either. Both would be imported at a huge tax burden.

 

[ElecFan]

And well they should. Hybrids are not the future but they are a fantastic choice for the present.

Indeed. I own a Toyota Auris Hybrid stationwagon. I love it. Because of the electric driving in that car I went looking for an EV and the model 3 is THE one for me.

 

[israndy]

My Prius Prime is a general purpose car that averages over 100 mpg lifetime in our household.

That's not all the info on your car. I know people who own Chevy Volts who NEVER put gas into them, charging the battery every night after work. You end up with a MPG figure that is VERY unrealistic because you are not including all the kWh's that you are putting into the car.

You could really put ANY number up for a plug-in hybrid's MPG if you don't include the amount of charging.

-Randy

 

[SageBrush]

That's not all the info on your car. I know people who own Chevy Volts who NEVER put gas into them, charging the battery every night after work. You end up with a MPG figure that is VERY unrealistic because you are not including all the kWh's that you are putting into the car.

You could really put ANY number up for a plug-in hybrid's MPG if you don't include the amount of charging.

-Randy

I use MPG to mean liquid fossil fuel consumption. None of that MPGe garbage
The kWh are from my PV array and are 6.3 kWh from the wall per 0.75-0.9 gallon consumed from my 90 mile work commute

Restated: Every 90 miles (to work and back)
0.75 - 0.9 gallons of petrol (depending on the season)
6.3 kWh of PV

A couple times a month I also drive 250 miles. Then I consume 6.3 kWh of PV and end up at ~ 75 mpg for the trip.

 

[NeverFollow]

Fair to say the Model 3 killed Hydrogen!

Fair to say the Tesla Semi-Truck killed the Nikola One Hydrogen Truck!


Pepsi one-ups Budweiser brewer by ordering 100 Tesla electric semi trucks

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Fair to say the Tesla Semi-Truck killed the Nikola One Hydrogen Truck!


Pepsi one-ups Budweiser brewer by ordering 100 Tesla electric semi trucks

Well, Nikola claims to have 8,000 preorders...of which 7,000 were made when it was using an NG range extender. They also claim to have 25k "verbal commitments," have their partially renewable (used to say 100% renewable) H2 costs down to around $4/kg, which they will then give 1M miles of free fuel for every truck ordered. They also now plan to build 700 stations... Oh, and they still don't have a functional prototype.

In short, Nikola killed themselves.

 

[gavine]

LOL:

Gas company actually ruined a Tesla Model S with a hydrogen fuel cell system

 

[NeverFollow]

Well, Nikola claims to have 8,000 preorders...of which 7,000 were made
when it was using an NG range extender.
They also claim to have 25k "verbal commitments," have their partially renewable
(used to say 100% renewable) H2 costs down to around $4/kg,
which they will then give 1M miles of free fuel for every truck ordered.
They also now plan to build 700 stations...
Oh, and they still don't have a functional prototype.

In short, Nikola killed themselves.

Watching the video for the unveiling of the Nikola One semi-truck
I felt quite embarrassed when Trevor Milton, CEO, at 19:55 on the video,
mentioned "70% PEM fuel cell efficiency" and try to explain "PEM"
"it's PEM like Paul Echo Mango or whatever I don't know the terminology..."

I felt I was watching a High School project presentation!!!

Note: PEM = Proton Exchange Membrane

Also at 27:21 I had to check the transcript to be sure about what Trevor Milton said:

27:16 ...you'll you'll see trucks just tipped
27:17 over on the side of the road why is that
27:18 it's either from bad traction anti
27:21 stability control didn't work right or...

I think that he meant Electronic Stability Control (ESC) which started to be mandatory in US
for all passenger vehicles under 10,000 pounds since 2009, but not for trucks or buses.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Watching the video for the unveiling of the Nikola One semi-truck
I felt quite embarrassed when Trevor Milton, CEO, at 19:55 on the video,
mentioned "70% PEM fuel cell efficiency" and try to explain "PEM"
"it's PEM like Paul Echo Mango or whatever I don't know the terminology..."

I felt I was watching a High School project presentation!!!

Note: PEM = Proton Exchange Membrane

Also at 27:21 I had to check the transcript to be sure about what Trevor Milton said:

27:16 ...you'll you'll see trucks just tipped
27:17 over on the side of the road why is that
27:18 it's either from bad traction anti
27:21 stability control didn't work right or...

I think that he meant Electronic Stability Control (ESC) which started to be mandatory in US
for all passenger vehicles under 10,000 pounds since 2009, but not for trucks or buses.

Milton has stated a great many things that are either counter to current reality, or seemingly a misunderstanding of the technology. Current PEM FCs are only around 60% efficient, 70% is a ridiculous number to throw out.

They had only decided to go with an FCEV a few months before the unveil, but they had already apparently made massive breakthroughs in FC technology and H2 production.

Milton has yet to produce any evidence of these claims...including a working vehicle. Toyota is at the forefront of FC tech in automotive application, and their Project Portal truck gets 5 miles/kg.

We'll just compare the two trucks:

Project Portal

H2 Capacity: 40kg
Range: 200 miles
Efficiency: 5 miles/kg
Refueling: Targeting 30-40 minutes

Nikola One

H2 Capacity: Unknown
Range: 800-1200 miles
Efficiency: Unknown
Refueling: 15 min (apparently not capacity dependent)

Now it does seem like an H2 semi should be more efficient than a diesel, so I can't quite figure out why the Toyota is so inefficient when they're supposedly using the same tech that allows the Mirai to achieve 67MPGe, but those are the official numbers from Toyota. Maybe Toyota needs to add a 320kWh battery that you never plug-in, like Nikola...

However, the idea that Nikola can build 700 stations that dispense 4x as much H2 as the Project Portal truck, in less than half the time, does seem rather outlandish on its face. But, then, so does everything else they claim...at least no one can accuse them of inconsistency.

Anyway, Nikola is asking everyone to wait until 2020 for validation, so they've got some time yet to draw this all out.