-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Faraday Future
- Thread starter hockeythug
- Start date
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
FF is doing past tense present tense future tense word games on that.
The key is they say "higher energy density than a 85 kWH Model S". Well 85 kWh Model S came out in what 2012?
FF is talking about what they'll have in 2018.
They aren't saying it will be denser than Tesla's 2018 pack, they are saying it will be denser than Tesla's 2012 pack and then counting on reporters to be clueless enough to tout that as 15% denser than Tesla.
We've already seen Tesla step up to 90 kWh packs and maybe they step up to 95 kWh in 2016 and 100 kWh in 2017?
OK, I looked up my old post from the CPO thread a partial quote is
just to give you an idea of the progress I'm expecting from Tesla.
Last edited:
palmer_md
Member
Another handful of posts moved to Tesla owner demographics and purchase reasons--past, present, future
At least FF have gotten more realistic with the launch date...
Lawmakers to consider $335 million in incentives for Faraday Future - Las Vegas Sun News
Lawmakers to consider $335 million in incentives for Faraday Future - Las Vegas Sun News
The problem Faraday faces is the price bracket the Model S and X compete in is very small. The Model S is the best selling car in the luxury sedan market in both the US and many European countries and its volume is tiny by car industry standards. The Model S is established and most of the bugs have been worked out. Any new car has bugs no matter how good the engineers and the early Model S buyers had many. If Faraday comes along with a car substantially better than the Model S, they could steal the market, but that's doubtful.
The Model S is a quantum leap in performance, economy, and concept from ICE cars and that's why it's made such an impact. Faraday Future is likely just going to be seen as a Model S clone. It would have to either be substantially better or provide similar performance and features at a much lower price to compete. I don't think either is going to happen.
Even if FF takes the high end from Tesla, by the time it hits the market, Tesla will have the Model 3 out there which will be its primary model.
The success path I see possible for FF is to design their car here in the US, then build it in China for the Chinese market. Chinese car buyers are generally more favorable to Chinese cars than foreign imports and the idea of a long range BEV luxury sedan developed by Chinese and built in China will sell well there. Outside of China I think they will have trouble getting traction against a well established Tesla. It's bad news for Tesla becoming a more significant player in China, but that's all.
The Model S is a quantum leap in performance, economy, and concept from ICE cars and that's why it's made such an impact. Faraday Future is likely just going to be seen as a Model S clone. It would have to either be substantially better or provide similar performance and features at a much lower price to compete. I don't think either is going to happen.
Even if FF takes the high end from Tesla, by the time it hits the market, Tesla will have the Model 3 out there which will be its primary model.
The success path I see possible for FF is to design their car here in the US, then build it in China for the Chinese market. Chinese car buyers are generally more favorable to Chinese cars than foreign imports and the idea of a long range BEV luxury sedan developed by Chinese and built in China will sell well there. Outside of China I think they will have trouble getting traction against a well established Tesla. It's bad news for Tesla becoming a more significant player in China, but that's all.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
It think Faraday Future is trying to head in a different market. They talk a lot about car sharing and autonomous driving, so I don't think it is necessarily aiming at the same market as Tesla right now. There obviously might be overlap in the future since Elon is also interested in autonomous driving.
Sounds like a subscription / ownership model like fractional jet ownership. It also sounds like the cars are tucked away somewhere that isn't in traditional parking lots (an off site parking garage plugged into the grid, but not in "downtown"?). I suppose they just drive around, clogging up highways, looking for Uber style fares. I've been in cities where taxicabs clog up all the downtown area.
So, with the back seat location of the "owners", who drives? With fractional jets, there is a cadre of pilots, so I guess the same could be true with FF cars. Even if autonomous driving were planned, it ain't gunna happen with regulatory approval by 2017. So, human paid drivers until XX date in the future, with autonomous cars (and lower cost) by 2020-2025?
This is would be a difficult model to sell from an established manufacturer, and even harder from a start up company. It all boils down to price. If a "Model S" type car is available to me (or "owned" by me) that is never left at my work or in my garage, takes me everywhere I want to go (with little wait time, because I can take ANY other available FF car), and insurance is a near non-event (group / fleet insurance), I can never get a traffic ticket, don't need a driver's license, don't have to fight for a parking spot, no parking tickets, et al, then how much would I pay? I assume FF takes any revenue from grid storage use, and maybe I have to endure streaming advertising in the back seat?
So, with the back seat location of the "owners", who drives? With fractional jets, there is a cadre of pilots, so I guess the same could be true with FF cars. Even if autonomous driving were planned, it ain't gunna happen with regulatory approval by 2017. So, human paid drivers until XX date in the future, with autonomous cars (and lower cost) by 2020-2025?
This is would be a difficult model to sell from an established manufacturer, and even harder from a start up company. It all boils down to price. If a "Model S" type car is available to me (or "owned" by me) that is never left at my work or in my garage, takes me everywhere I want to go (with little wait time, because I can take ANY other available FF car), and insurance is a near non-event (group / fleet insurance), I can never get a traffic ticket, don't need a driver's license, don't have to fight for a parking spot, no parking tickets, et al, then how much would I pay? I assume FF takes any revenue from grid storage use, and maybe I have to endure streaming advertising in the back seat?
Sounds like you might be a bit bearish about FF's assumed business model?
I think what FF might be proposing would actually greatly reduce the amount of traffic on the highway. This sentiment is shared by many who are putting autonomous cars into the hands of consumers.
While it is unknown what the business model will actually look like I'd expect it to be somewhat like what you are guessing above.
Sometime in the future (2018+) you'll have an app that can call a FF car to you and it will drive you somewhere close-by (<20 miles) while in an urban area like commuting to work, grocery shopping, school or restaurants. Stuff like that.
I highly doubt fractional ownership rather than an Uber style of "pay when you need it for discrete trips" model. I'd expect that the service would learn my behavior and never make me wait or have a setting that allows for a cheaper fare if I'm willing to wait a few minutes. No insurance needed as this is included in the fare. Would expect that, like Uber, the fares would be very competitive to owning a car outright for an expected usage model where most travel for inhabitants of an area occur.
Maybe the benefit of FF over other offerings might be a vehicle that is even more tech friendly and can more easily adapt to new features (both software and hardware) than the Tesla model.
That's exactly the issue I have with this idea. I just don't think this will happen in 2018. Maybe 2020, but their whole business idea would basically require autonomous cars.
Was if the back-seat was the new front-seat?
Last edited by a moderator:
That Mercedes add is redonkulous. I like how hey say " our vision of autonomous driving" or whatever at the end. So your vision is the parent sleeps while your three year old does who knows what? ....a bright future indeed.
Last edited by a moderator:
As a father of a 2 year old I too find that the father falling asleep is, for lack of a better description, "not good", regardless of where they are or if the car is driving. And also notice that the child is forward facing as opposed to rear facing. Child does not look old enough to be forward facing...Yes, yes, the things you notice as a parent.
Yeah, timelines are hard to predict, and there are some aspects of a truly autonomous car that will be very hard to solve. There are several minor driving habits that human drivers have come to expect other human drivers have which make the driving experience for both seem interactive so both can get what they need without being delayed or annoyed. Congested intersection navigation is a major one as is leaving the lane to the right or left when the line curves thus cutting the tip off of the turn (you might call this the apex, but this is where the solid white line to the right or the yellow to the left is worn out because so many people find it more straightforward and safe to just apex the turn and drive over the line). If you see a human driver navigate perfectly inside of the line you might think they were a very novice driver or someone who is not comfortable behind the wheel.
Several have been pointed out there are difficulties and below is an example of something that is difficult at first blush, but might not be as hard if separated into it's own process
Without any traffic in an intersection it is fairly straightforward for an autonomous car to navigate. Generally, intersections are discrete in nature, being small enough for the sensor set to make clear, unambiguous decisions on moving forward safely.
However, with traffic, intersections can become the most challenging of situations and could really stop an autonomous car from moving at all. How does an autonomous move through congested intersections? Even though the sensor set can see better and think quicker, it really lacks 'personality'. I'd bet that when you see a car inching forward in a congested intersection you make a judgement about the driver if their 'personality' is more aggressive, or more tentative or you might just put a mental judgement of their 'reluctance' to move forward in that situation.
Reluctance model - Some might call this by another name...but it is a process that applies weight to a decision on whether to move forward (inch forward or put your nose into a lane to signal to other cars that you want to go or peak into an intersection). This is a model that will need to be constructed from contextual, situational and environmental constraints on the fly, dynamically and fitting the comfort level of the primary occupant of the car. The fully autonomous car will be able to see with camera and radar/lidar from the very tip of its nose giving it an unobstructed view of the intersection. Once this process moves or inches the car forward it can see how other moving objects react to its movement and adjust accordingly. Fast moving oncoming cars may slow down, or quickly engage bright headlights that might suggest that particular car is ok with letting the autonomous car through. Once the car can see how the variables change it can then readjust its model to account for these variables and make another weighted variable that would suggest the next movement or lack of movement for a given time period. Remember, this all happens at about 10ms per decision so the autonomous car should be able to navigate even the toughest intersection like a seasoned pro with enough training. The training ensures that each interaction with the same intersection is different, but could weight similarly if enough variables are consistent.
Leaving the lane to the right (crossing the solid white line) - The reluctance model could also be applied to this as well. As in traffic the car could easily follow the lead (with enough contextual, situational and environmental data) of the cars around. If several cars in front pass over the white line to relieve a congested bottleneck at a very slow or far below the speed limit then this model could be used to provide a higher weighted decision to follow rather than to wait until there is enough room to pass within the white line (where waiting would cause an even bigger bottleneck and really piss off the human drivers behind)
Just food for thought...
Several have been pointed out there are difficulties and below is an example of something that is difficult at first blush, but might not be as hard if separated into it's own process
Without any traffic in an intersection it is fairly straightforward for an autonomous car to navigate. Generally, intersections are discrete in nature, being small enough for the sensor set to make clear, unambiguous decisions on moving forward safely.
However, with traffic, intersections can become the most challenging of situations and could really stop an autonomous car from moving at all. How does an autonomous move through congested intersections? Even though the sensor set can see better and think quicker, it really lacks 'personality'. I'd bet that when you see a car inching forward in a congested intersection you make a judgement about the driver if their 'personality' is more aggressive, or more tentative or you might just put a mental judgement of their 'reluctance' to move forward in that situation.
Reluctance model - Some might call this by another name...but it is a process that applies weight to a decision on whether to move forward (inch forward or put your nose into a lane to signal to other cars that you want to go or peak into an intersection). This is a model that will need to be constructed from contextual, situational and environmental constraints on the fly, dynamically and fitting the comfort level of the primary occupant of the car. The fully autonomous car will be able to see with camera and radar/lidar from the very tip of its nose giving it an unobstructed view of the intersection. Once this process moves or inches the car forward it can see how other moving objects react to its movement and adjust accordingly. Fast moving oncoming cars may slow down, or quickly engage bright headlights that might suggest that particular car is ok with letting the autonomous car through. Once the car can see how the variables change it can then readjust its model to account for these variables and make another weighted variable that would suggest the next movement or lack of movement for a given time period. Remember, this all happens at about 10ms per decision so the autonomous car should be able to navigate even the toughest intersection like a seasoned pro with enough training. The training ensures that each interaction with the same intersection is different, but could weight similarly if enough variables are consistent.
Leaving the lane to the right (crossing the solid white line) - The reluctance model could also be applied to this as well. As in traffic the car could easily follow the lead (with enough contextual, situational and environmental data) of the cars around. If several cars in front pass over the white line to relieve a congested bottleneck at a very slow or far below the speed limit then this model could be used to provide a higher weighted decision to follow rather than to wait until there is enough room to pass within the white line (where waiting would cause an even bigger bottleneck and really piss off the human drivers behind)
Just food for thought...
ColinA
Member
Will be very interesting to see what they unveil next month at the CES show in Las Vegas...
http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/faraday-future-nevada/
This teaser points to a different ownership model...
[video]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SPCR1GBnSy8#action=share[/video]
http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/faraday-future-nevada/
This teaser points to a different ownership model...
[video]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SPCR1GBnSy8#action=share[/video]
Similar threads
