Fear of the 100,000 miles milestone...in a Tesla

[FlyinLow]

When researching the service history on Model S cars to buy through a private party sale, this was on my mind. I wanted to see if a car could be bought at a good price that was out of warranty, with battery and drive train warranty as a safety blanket for the most expensive stuff.

At over 100,000 miles a unique pricing demographic now exists for Tesla. When all the "classic" Model S cars are well over 500,000 miles and still driving the depreciation curve might change a little. I once thought Elon claimed these are "million mile cars," but he really said the drive units would go a million miles between services. This was at the Model 3 Launch Event so it may have been only referring to the Model 3.

On my 2014 MS 85 the seller and I carefully reviewed records from the service center. All door handles were replaced, the coolant system was replaced and drive unit replaced. Other small items were taken care of too.

I'm pushing 119,000 miles now and have no unusual noises, rattles or other issues. The car is fun to drive. I replaced the wipers, filled the washer fluid and put on new tires that are warranted for 50,000 miles by the manufacturer (Bridgestone Turanza Serenity Plus on 19" wheels). I'll check the fluid level in the Drive Unit on its four year anniversary and maybe change the Dextron VI and filter, then replace the cabin air filter. That is all.

 

[cwerdna]

With Elon claiming these are "million mile cars"

Source?

Until the -Q revision DUs, it seemed the below was true.

"Tesla's goal of a 1 million mile powertrain", well they are 20k down, and 980k of reliability left to go...

Even the -Q DUs can fail early or after awhile...

When all the "classic" Model S cars are well over 500,000 miles and still driving...

I doubt we'll see many of these. Once the DU and battery pack warranty has expired, I suspect it will make less and less economic sense to keep the car much longer. Expensive repairs can really add up.

 

[FlyinLow]

It was a quote from the Model 3 launch event.

He actually said the drive units would go one million miles between services. So I was incorrect and will fix my reference above.

Thanks for asking.

 

[cwerdna]

It was a quote from the Model 3 launch event.

He actually said the drive units would go one million miles between services. So I was incorrect and will fix my reference above.

LOL! Which event? Have a time index? Was he referring to his claims on the Semi's drive units? If so, it's a non-shipping product and I doubt they're identical. IIRC, the Semi's DU's are "based upon" Model 3 DUs, of which we've already seen failures.

 

[FlyinLow]

Model 3 Launch Event. Don’t have the time.

 

[cwerdna]

Model 3 Launch Event. Don’t have the time.

Let me know when you find it...

There is

and

.

So far, doesn't look like Model 3 DUs nor ANY Tesla DUs are doing well against this mythical million miles.

As many have noted, one often has to translate what Elon says into reality. I've posted at automotive reliability and durability testing and it's mostly crickets. Also, see my post #5 there. Given what some not-very-reliable automakers already do vs. what we've already seen w/Model X falcon wing doors, Model S door handles, MCUs and drive units, one has to wonder about Tesla's parts validation and long-term reliability and durability testing along w/manufacturing consistency (if they in fact do comparable or even more extensive testing).

I responded to this guy about his mistaken idea of Model S "million mile" drivetrains at Official Tesla Model S thread - Page 348 - My Nissan Leaf Forum, since he never did.

Here are some long-lived Priuses, for example: Lifespan/Operating costs.

 

[FlyinLow]

My gamble, by buying a used Model S for less than half of what it was new, is that the parts will be available for me to do the simple maintenance required to keep this car driving for a long time. I made a guess that the battery version, MCU and AP1 was sorted out on Nov 14 build cars and will report what happens.

Let's get to 200,000 miles first...I've got 80k to go. I suspect the car, once I drive it for a while, will be less expensive to maintain than an ICE vehicle after 200,000 miles, including maintenance. If it is the same and the only difference is that I pay for electricity instead of gasoline, then I still cut my driving cost by 1/2 compared to an equivalent BMW or Mercedes.

It is well known now that the robust warranty is what most people count on during that first 20-30k miles to sort out the issues like DU grinding, door handle micro switch failure and other things.

 

[FlyinLow]

I responded to this guy about his mistaken idea of Model S "million mile" drivetrains at Official Tesla Model S thread - Page 348 - My Nissan Leaf Forum, since he never did.

Thank you for the videos, links and info. Perhaps Elon/Tesla have been getting a pass too long for the statements made on stage during launch events. Grain of salt comes to mind when products have yet to show longevity through customer experience in the real world. The oldest customer Model S is approaching 5 years since it was built, that is not a very old car, really.

 

[dhrivnak]

So we all know there is this generally know fear of cars with over 100K miles. True, mechanical parts fail over time, but if maintained well (within the laws of diminishing returns) cars in general these days should and do last well over the 100,000 miles mark.

How about Tesla's with over 100,000 miles... sure the battery will degrade resulting in relatively lower range, the Drive Unit is rated for way above 100K miles. Door handles and MCU need replacement (cost/warrant expiration/resale valuation are some other topics) but the main question for community response is...

Does the 100K miles milestone apply to a Tesla, like it does to ICE cars?

Cheers

Disclosure: I don't keep cars very long, have gone through too many to list.

If one looks there are a few Roadsters at over 9 years and 100,000+ miles and they are doing well, so surely the later generations are even better. Remember Tesla was selling cars a good 4 years BEFORE the Model S.

PS I have a 9+ year old Roadster that is doing quite well at nearly 49,000 miles.

 

[FlyinLow]

If one looks there are a few Roadsters at over 9 years and 100,000+ miles and they are doing well, so surely the later generations are even better. Remember Tesla was selling cars a good 4 years BEFORE the Model S.

PS I have a 9+ year old Roadster that is doing quite well at nearly 49,000 miles.

I'd say that is a fairly low mileage car for its age. My 2014 MS has 119,000 miles, my wife and I use it for our daily driver and my car of choice for road trips.

 

[cwerdna]

If one looks there are a few Roadsters at over 9 years and 100,000+ miles and they are doing well, so surely the later generations are even better.

And some are absolute horror shows. There's one of those owned by Tivocommunity member, who I believe posts under a different handle here. I met him at an Cupertino EVent a few years ago.

 

[tomas]

On an Internet forum you always find the horrors. Every make, every brand, every model.

 

[mspohr]

Source?

Until the -Q revision DUs, it seemed the below was true.

Even the -Q DUs can fail early or after awhile...

I doubt we'll see many of these. Once the DU and battery pack warranty has expired, I suspect it will make less and less economic sense to keep the car much longer. Expensive repairs can really add up.

I think Elon said the goal was a million mile car, not that he claimed they were making million mile cars.
Tesla's don't have the thousands of wearing parts in the engine and transmission. Just an electric motor with one moving part. Electric motors in industrial use commonly go 15-20 years without problems (with a much higher duty cycle than a Tesla). The DU failures were all due to inadequate lubrication of the half shafts, etc. and now that this has been corrected, these gears should last a long time and even if they wear, are not expensive to replace. The battery is one cause of worry. However, people who have been tracking Tesla batteries report only small (10% degradation) up to 200,000 miles. Time will tell if this holds. The motor and battery should go for quite a long distance. Other stuff such as brakes and tires will require routine replacement but are not expensive.
(When I first joined this board about four years ago, DU failure was a hot topic. Now it's rare.)

 

[Lasttoy]

113k and love my S.
One door handle gear and wheel alignment,. Thats it.
I will get a 3 in 2020 when this warranty runs out. I cant afford battery pack or motor change

 

[ACA Man]

Battery degradation is something Tesla refused to acknowledge so beware.

 

[mspohr]

Battery degradation is something Tesla refused to acknowledge so beware.

Looks like 500,000 miles
Tesla battery data shows path to over 500,000 miles on a single pack
Tesla battery degradation analysis reveals how long a battery might last
Show Me the Data: The Truth About Tesla Battery Degradation | CleanTechnica

 

[ACA Man]

Looks like 500,000 miles
Tesla battery data shows path to over 500,000 miles on a single pack
Tesla battery degradation analysis reveals how long a battery might last
Show Me the Data: The Truth About Tesla Battery Degradation | CleanTechnica

2014 MS60 Rated Range

 

[cwerdna]

I think Elon said the goal was a million mile car, not that he claimed they were making million mile cars.
Tesla's don't have the thousands of wearing parts in the engine and transmission. Just an electric motor with one moving part. Electric motors in industrial use commonly go 15-20 years without problems (with a much higher duty cycle than a Tesla).

Yes on the 1st point. On the latter, this is the common logic or excuse except those makers of industrial motors aren't making drive units for Tesla and there's 0 evidence to support a Tesla being very likely to go 15 to 20 years w/o drive unit problems.

The DU failures were all due to inadequate lubrication of the half shafts, etc.

There were some reasons/excuses state publicly by Elon + some other known causes circulated in the media. I highly doubt the root causes of all the issues are known to the public.

and now that this has been corrected, these gears should last a long time and even if they wear,

Some of those issues were corrected. Please state your claimed approximate year or month that all of these problems have been "corrected" and thus DUs installed as replacements or installed in new vehicles should be "corrected" versions. "Inadequate lubrication of the half shafts" doesn't generally cause a DU to suddenly lose propulsion.

these gears should last a long time and even if they wear, are not expensive to replace.

How much? Tesla service doesn't come cheap.

The battery is one cause of worry. However, people who have been tracking Tesla batteries report only small (10% degradation) up to 200,000 miles. Time will tell if this holds. The motor and battery should go for quite a long distance.

I'm not concerned about Tesla battery degradation. Here's a case where Tesla looks quite good.

But, numerous folks have gotten entire packs replaced for whatever reason, often not due to degradation but rather some sort of malfunction within the pack.

(When I first joined this board about four years ago, DU failure was a hot topic. Now it's rare.)

Yes, for mostly noise issues and some outright failures. The outright failures still are happening. And, as I said, the signs for Model 3 DUs aren't looking very good either.

 

[mspohr]

2014 MS60 Rated Range

One anecdotal report is irrelevant compared to hundreds of data points.

 

[mspohr]

Yes on the 1st point. On the latter, this is the common logic or excuse except those makers of industrial motors aren't making drive units for Tesla and there's 0 evidence to support a Tesla being very likely to go 15 to 20 years w/o drive unit problems.

Of course there is no direct evidence to support 15 or 20 year Tesla motors since they oldest cars are much less than that age. There are , however, millions of the same type of motor in industrial use which have 15 to 20 year life (many operating at 100% duty cycle). (Please note that I am referring to the motors, not the entire drive unit although the entire drive unit is just a few gears which, if properly lubricated, should have a long life.)

There were some reasons/excuses state publicly by Elon + some other known causes circulated in the media. I highly doubt the root causes of all the issues are known to the public.

If you're going to accuse Tesla of lying about DU failures, there is no point to this discussion. They said it was improper lubrication and once that was fixed, the DU problems went away.

Some of those issues were corrected. Please state your claimed approximate year or month that all of these problems have been "corrected" and thus DUs installed as replacements or installed in new vehicles should be "corrected" versions. "Inadequate lubrication of the half shafts" doesn't generally cause a DU to suddenly lose propulsion.

There are several old threads and polls on DU failure which would be useful to review.
This poll asks about drive unit failures and the date of production:
Drive unit replacement - getting better?
If you look at the results, there seems to be a big drop off in reports starting 1Q 2015 which is probably when the lubrication problem was fixed. Since then, there have only been scattered reports of "failures" (noise/milling sound).
-
Sudden loss of propulsion has always been rare and it has usually been caused by battery contactor failure (also since fixed with redesigned battery contactor).