First quarter 2018 deliveries

[doctoxics]

I suspect that the real reason for the Model S/X backlog (June deliveries) is not due to orders alone, but a focus on ramp up to 5k Model 3's per week. I suspect they will push really hard to achieve the target Model 3 throughput a few weeks and then it will relax downward temporarily while they revert back to previous Model S/X production levels. Pure speculation here.

Could it be that S and X orders are building up because buyers want the federal tax credit before it expires?

 

[doctoxics]

Do you mean because of buyers forgoing delivery of MCU1 cars and reordering or because of the hold on delivery due to the buggy MCU2s? I think neither wlll have a material impact.

As others have suggested, Tesla has to refill the S and X pipelines in Q1. I don't expect much more than 20,000 total S and X deliveries in Q1.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I still got 7500

You still got 7500?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

As others have suggested, Tesla has to refill the S and X pipelines in Q1. I don't expect much more than 20,000 total S and X deliveries in Q1.

What pipeline? Why does Tesla have to refill it? High “inventory” was only a 1H17 phenomenon, and only S, which Tesla then liquidated to generate cash during Model 3 ramp. Why ramp it back up again?!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Could it be that S and X orders are building up because buyers want the federal tax credit before it expires?

Possibly, but also may be increasing supercharger and service center coverage, expanding brand value, halo effect from roadster reveal or model 3, or model 3 production delays pushing some to opt for model s, or int’l expansion etc

 

[RobStark]

You still got 7500?

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Source?

Two 2018 inventory cars

Inventory Search | Tesla


Inventory Search | Tesla

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Two 2018 inventory cars

Inventory Search | Tesla


Inventory Search | Tesla

Thanks I think all agree at this time that inventory is running thin. I’m most intrigued, however, by your claim that there is a 20K+ spread in MS VIN numbers in the quarter.

 

[Reciprocity]

What pipeline? Why does Tesla have to refill it? High “inventory” was only a 1H17 phenomenon, and only S, which Tesla then liquidated to generate cash during Model 3 ramp. Why ramp it back up again?!

Tax credit phase out. Tesla should be building inventory for the day they hit 200,000. Demand has going to sky rocket.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tax credit phase out. Tesla should be building inventory for the day they hit 200,000. Demand has going to sky rocket.

You’re right. Demand will surge as news of credit phaseout emerge. I hope Tesla doesn’t do a dumb thing like reducing prices into credit phaseout.

 

[Reciprocity]

You’re right. Demand will surge as news of credit phaseout emerge. I hope Tesla doesn’t do a dumb thing like reducing prices into credit phaseout.

Why would they lower prices again? They just lowered prices last year and started to include more in the base price.

This is also why we won't see a refresh this year or 2170 cells. These are demand levers that will be used after tax credits phase out. Probably first quarter 2019. This will also be used to differentiate the S/X from higher end versions of the model 3 and later the Y. Retail price will stay the same, but consumers will get more for the money and the demand to replace the $7500 credit will be things like HUD, 400+ mile range, 15 minutes to charge 200+ miles and of course the return of lifetime unlimited free super charging, none of which will be matched by competitors in any meaningful way. Remember, this will be 2019 and not the magical year of 2020 when all the Tesla killers are coming with 250 miles of range and chargers that cost as much as gas. Produced in compliance volumes.. It's going to be magical!

The credit could also be fixed to be fair for the companies that paved the way.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Why would they lower prices again? They just lowered prices last year and started to include more in the base price.

This is also why we won't see a refresh this year or 2170 cells. These are demand levers that will be used after tax credits phase out. Probably first quarter 2019. This will also be used to differentiate the S/X from higher end versions of the model 3 and later the Y. Retail price will stay the same, but consumers will get more for the money and the demand to replace the $7500 credit will be things like HUD, 400+ mile range, 15 minutes to charge 200+ miles and of course the return of lifetime unlimited free super charging, none of which will be matched by competitors in any meaningful way. Remember, this will be 2019 and not the magical year of 2020 when all the Tesla killers are coming with 250 miles of range and chargers that cost as much as gas. Produced in compliance volumes.. It's going to be magical!

The credit could also be fixed to be fair for the companies that paved the way.

What do you think about the high Model S NHTSA VIN count @GeorgeSymonds pointed out?

 

[Reciprocity]

What do you think about the high Model S NHTSA VIN count @GeorgeSymonds pointed out?

I have no opinion. I don't know the source or if it's accurate or it's is even useful info if it is accurate. Model S/X at this point is not a mystery. They make 2000/w and sell every one. There is some Squishieness in the deliveries due to transportation. But I doubt they slowed Production to focus on model 3. They would instead use OT to maintain production and deal with model 3. The S/X are mature at this point, not shipping them would be terrible for the financials due to the worse terms for parts and due to the high margins that should get sightly better every quarter. Also, model X had been steadily catching up to model S in terms of deliveries. The market for the X is much larger then the S, even if it's a bit compromised by FWD and not being a giant vehicle like and Escalade or range Rover. I would assume parity for deliveries at this point. What the original poster pointed to was 2:1 S over X. Just don't see this changing from the trend that had been in place for months where X is growing to S levels.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I have no opinion. I don't know the source or if it's accurate or it's is even useful info if it is accurate. Model S/X at this point is not a mystery. They make 2000/w and sell every one. There is some Squishieness in the deliveries due to transportation. But I doubt they slowed Production to focus on model 3. They would instead use OT to maintain production and deal with model 3. The S/X are mature at this point, not shipping them would be terrible for the financials due to the worse terms for parts and due to the high margins that should get sightly better every quarter. Also, model X had been steadily catching up to model S in terms of deliveries. The market for the X is much larger then the S, even if it's a bit compromised by FWD and not being a giant vehicle like and Escalade or range Rover. I would assume parity for deliveries at this point. What the original poster pointed to was 2:1 S over X. Just don't see this changing from the trend that had been in place for months where X is growing to S levels.

Nailing the S units is crucial for bottom line projection though. So what’s your prediction for 1Q18 deliveries? I should also note that many, including even MontanaSkeptic, noted the high Model S NHTSA VINs this quarter.

To put it in perspective, if Tesla delivers 15,000 Model S units vs. 10,000, the bottom line would get an estimated boost of about $400m to $500m, due to the high contribution margin (not gross margin) of the vehicle.

So this is an important input to think about.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I have no opinion. I don't know the source or if it's accurate or it's is even useful info if it is accurate. Model S/X at this point is not a mystery. They make 2000/w and sell every one. There is some Squishieness in the deliveries due to transportation. But I doubt they slowed Production to focus on model 3. They would instead use OT to maintain production and deal with model 3. The S/X are mature at this point, not shipping them would be terrible for the financials due to the worse terms for parts and due to the high margins that should get sightly better every quarter. Also, model X had been steadily catching up to model S in terms of deliveries. The market for the X is much larger then the S, even if it's a bit compromised by FWD and not being a giant vehicle like and Escalade or range Rover. I would assume parity for deliveries at this point. What the original poster pointed to was 2:1 S over X. Just don't see this changing from the trend that had been in place for months where X is growing to S levels.

The source is posted above - two cars, both 2018 builds years and with VINs 20k apart. It's the only quarter we can reliably, thereafter its the running totals for the year. Personally I think it's MX inventory thats thin, all the inventory listing sites show the same, but the MS inventory varies quite a lot between those sites. Very thin MX inventory and CPO numbers could indicate a bias to MS production. Lets hope there's a pleasant surprise and Musk gets his first bonus as $300 is not where I want the price

 

[Reciprocity]

Nailing the S units is crucial for bottom line projection though. So what’s your prediction for 1Q18 deliveries? I should also note that many, including even MontanaSkeptic, noted the high Model S NHTSA VINs this quarter.

To put it in perspective, if Tesla delivers 15,000 Model S units vs. 10,000, the bottom line would get an estimated boost of about $400m to $500m, due to the high contribution margin (not gross margin) of the vehicle.

So this is an important input to think about.

Why would S be higher margin now then the X. The S has always been more mature, but it should level off and the X should become just as mature now that all the issues have gone down for more then a year now. X got the same price drop as S last year. Also, counting vin's is a fools errand if you ask me. X is also higher ASP which is good for the top line as long as the margins are the same.. even if the S is slightly better precent, it could still mean more total margin for the same number of model X as S.

I remember pretty vividly the eoy last year when tesla was delivering X VINs in the 80,000 range. I was paying close attention because my x was on the last delivered in 2016 with a 32xxx Vin number. To me 50,000 model X in 2017 meant near parity with S. If you are saying that VIN tracking is only showing 90,000 for X, then we are in a dire place with model X that was acceleration. It would be like it hit a brick wall with less even half the cars produced quarter over quarter for a model that was growing for 10+ straight quarters. It makes no sense.

 

[Reciprocity]

The source is posted above - two cars, both 2018 builds years and with VINs 20k apart. It's the only quarter we can reliably, thereafter its the running totals for the year. Personally I think it's MX inventory thats thin, all the inventory listing sites show the same, but the MS inventory varies quite a lot between those sites. Very thin MX inventory and CPO numbers could indicate a bias to MS production. Lets hope there's a pleasant surprise and Musk gets his first bonus as $300 is not where I want the price

Sorry, that is just not a good enough source for me. People make mistakes, Tesla's makes cars out if order. They could be splitting some premade cars with custom made cars to optimize production. Who knows. The trend of several years conflicts. Where did you get the x VIN info?

The inventory on x has always been nil. It's always been next to Impossible to find one used.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Why would S be higher margin now then the X. The S has always been more mature, but it should level off and the X should become just as mature now that all the issues have gone down for more then a year now. X got the same price drop as S last year. Also, counting vin's is a fools errand if you ask me. X is also higher ASP which is good for the top line as long as the margins are the same.. even if the S is slightly better precent, it could still mean more total margin for the same number of model X as S.

I remember pretty vividly the eoy last year when tesla was delivering X VINs in the 80,000 range. I was paying close attention because my x was on the last delivered in 2016 with a 32xxx Vin number. To me 50,000 model X in 2017 meant near parity with S. If you are saying that VIN tracking is only showing 90,000 for X, then we are in a dire place with model X that was acceleration. It would be like it hit a brick wall with less even half the cars produced quarter over quarter for a model that was growing for 10+ straight quarters. It makes no sense.

I never said S is higher margin. I never discussed X either. You didn’t answer my question.

The question relates to S and its unusually high VIN count that many pointed out. How many S do you expect Tesla to deliver this quarter was the question. If you don’t feel comfortable answering that’s fine.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I guess we'll see, but these are not one off MS VINs

Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla

to

Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla

It would be a very patch manufacturing pattern to have a 20k spread and make less than 15k cars.

I get my data from 4 different CPO listing sites and Tesla themselves. It takes a bit of work to build up the picture

 

[Sudre]

I am wondering if there was a fleet purchase of Model S and more efforts had to be put into the S over the X for this past quarter. Of coarse that is nothing but pure speculation.