First quarter 2018 deliveries

[Reciprocity]

I never said S is higher margin. I never discussed X either. You didn’t answer my question.

The question relates to S and its unusually high VIN count that many pointed out. How many S do you expect Tesla to deliver this quarter was the question. If you don’t feel comfortable answering that’s fine.

I don't know a single about unusually high S VINS and I still have no opinion, which I originally started. I don't know it to be a fact or meaningful. I have stated what I think are facts and meaningful. 20000 model S and 10000 model X names zero sense based on more then a years trend. Counting VINs from inventory is probably not that accurate..

 

[dennis]

I guess we'll see, but these are not one off MS VINs

Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla

to

Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla

It would be a very patch manufacturing pattern to have a 20k spread and make less than 15k cars.

I get my data from 4 different CPO listing sites and Tesla themselves. It takes a bit of work to build up the picture

Are you aware of the crowd sourced Order and Delivery spreadsheets for S and X? Look at the Model S one for 4Q17. You'll see that all of the vehicles with production start dates in December had VINs in the range of 2307XX-2331XX, all of which are above VIN 230211 that you link to above. There is no way those cars were produced in 1Q18.

Model S Order & Delivery 2017 & 2018

Subtracting the lowest VIN you find with a 2018 indication from the highest one doesn't prove anything about how many vehicles were produced in Q1.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I guess we'll see, but these are not one off MS VINs

Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla

to

Inventory Search | Tesla
Inventory Search | Tesla

It would be a very patch manufacturing pattern to have a 20k spread and make less than 15k cars.

I get my data from 4 different CPO listing sites and Tesla themselves. It takes a bit of work to build up the picture

I don't know a single about unusually high S VINS and I still have no opinion, which I originally started. I don't know it to be a fact or meaningful. I have stated what I think are facts and meaningful. 20000 model S and 10000 model X names zero sense based on more then a years trend. Counting VINs from inventory is probably not that accurate..

Are you aware of the crowd sourced Order and Delivery spreadsheets for S and X? Look at the Model S one for 4Q17. You'll see that all of the vehicles with production start dates in December had VINs in the range of 2307XX-2331XX, all of which are above VIN 230211 that you link to above. There is no way those cars were produced in 1Q18.

Model S Order & Delivery 2017 & 2018

thanks everyone! super helpful.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Are you aware of the crowd sourced Order and Delivery spreadsheets for S and X? Look at the Model S one for 4Q17. You'll see that all of the vehicles with production start dates in December had VINs in the range of 2307XX-2331XX, all of which are above VIN 230211 that you link to above. There is no way those cars were produced in 1Q18.

Model S Order & Delivery 2017 & 2018

Subtracting the lowest VIN you find with a 2018 indication from the highest one doesn't prove anything about how many vehicles were produced in Q1.

Thats useful, thanks, I wasn't aware. I said when I first posted the point that it assumed a few things. We will know soon enough for sure.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Just a little update - I've looked this morning and I can now see MS vins in the high 250xxx bracket - thats 1000 more than at the end of last week. Same caveats apply in terms of they may not be continuous, the patterns of production can vary, but that does suggest a high MS output while there are still virtually no MX cars appearing

Inventory Search | Tesla

 

[EinSV]

Just a little update - I've looked this morning and I can now see MS vins in the high 250xxx bracket - thats 1000 more than at the end of last week. Same caveats apply in terms of they may not be continuous, the patterns of production can vary, but that does suggest a high MS output while there are still virtually no MX cars appearing

Inventory Search | Tesla

George, I share your opinion that Model S production is likely exceeding Model X by a significant amount, but am a little more cautious on the numbers, especially numbers delivered versus produced.

Checking the tabs for Q4 2017, Q1 2018 and Q2 2018 at the bottom of the spreadsheet, some VINs through 2338xx were also being delivered in Q4 2017 and some VINs starting at 246xxx are scheduled for delivery in Q2 2018. Model S Order & Delivery 2017 & 2018

So that is a unique VIN spread of only about 12.5K for Q1 2018, plus an unknown number from the 226xxx-2338xx and 2463xx-2499xx ranges. If you assume that the vast majority of VINs between 2338xx and 2488xx are slated for delivery in Q1 (an aggressive assumption) that gets you up to 15K S produced for Q1 delivery, plus a small number outside that range. And some of these could go into the loaner pool/inventory, which was depleted at the end of Q4.

For Q1 2018 there are also only a handful of VINs listed below 237xxx. It is possible that cars in the 233xxx-236xxx range were delivered in Q1 2018 to China or other countries where TMC has few members, but it is also possible that some of these were used to restock the loaner pool or were delivered in Q4 2017.

So trying to guesstimate Model S deliveries from the spreadsheet (already a tricky proposition) has a higher degree of uncertainty than normal this quarter IMO.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I don't doubt that, and on any given date cars will be in transit. I guess the additional bit of information is that the high number vins are growing quickly although with the highest seen vin increasing by 1000 in 5 days, 200 cars per day, that equates to a quarter of 91 days and 18,200 cars.

Its rough math, I just feel its way over 10k in quarter

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Its rough math, I just feel its way over 10k in quarter

It's not just a feeling; you have hard data that support your prediction. Believe in your work, and if not, work harder until you do.

 

[Reciprocity]

Production for S/X are maxed out at 2k/w. Given 12 weeks with the 4 day shut down and the holiday, that would likely limit then to 24,000 produced in the quarter. Unless they improved production over the past few quarters. Could we see 10,000 model X and 14,000 model S? I guess it's possible but that would buck the trend. Also, Tesla had always delivered less cars in Q1 and made up for lower amount the rest of the year. Looking at her delivery spread sheet for the model X does show that it is on the light side. Maybe they finally caught up with the backlog. We will see soon enough.

 

[Todd Burch]

My guess:

S/X: 24,500 produced, 22k delivered.

3: 12K produced, 9.5K delivered, last week at 2,400/wk.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I still got 7500

Did you mean for Q1 or March alone?

 

[yak-55]

11,222 Model S
12,221 Model X
7,345 Model 3
30,788 Total

 

[RobStark]

Did you mean for Q1 or March alone?

q1.

I hope it is 10k-12k for the quarter but I doubt it.

We have gotten positive readings from the tea leaves and entrails towards the end of the last three quarters, optimism rains on TMC before Tesla releases the delivery numbers, and then we get disappointed.

 

[graphix25]

35501

My model 3 delivery took it over the edge on 3/31.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

q1.

I hope it is 10k-12k for the quarter but I doubt it.

We have gotten positive readings from the tea leaves and entrails towards the end of the last three quarters, optimism rains on TMC before Tesla releases the delivery numbers, and then we get disappointed.

I was just teasing you, but that's fair. It's surely been a rough couple of quarters for TSLA bulls, including myself. This, too, shall pass.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I still got 7500

Would you like to revise it now?

 

[RobStark]

I was just teasing you, but that's fair. It's surely been a rough couple of quarters for TSLA bulls, including myself. This, too, shall pass.

8180

Is that closer to 7500 or 10000?

 

[RobStark]

Would you like to revise it now?

Sure, 8180

 

[scottf200]

11,222 Model S
12,221 Model X
7,345 Model 3
30,788 Total

Tesla just reported Q1 2018 production figures. The automaker states:

“Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter.”

24,728 TMS& TMX
_9,766 TM3
34,494 Total

 

[SBenson]

Tesla just reported Q1 2018 production figures. The automaker states:

“Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, and 9,766 were Model 3. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter.”

24,728 TMS& TMX
_9,766 TM3
34,494 Total

Dude, the poll is for deliveries.