McHoffa
CyberOwners
I think it will be a few thousand up to maybe 10,000 up front. After that, maybe hundreds per day for a week, then flatten out until it gets closer to launch. I'll try my best to be in the first 100 though :biggrin:
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McHoffa
CyberOwners
You really think the first day it will be higher than that? There are 32k members on this forum. I would guess that MOST of the people ready to drop money right away are probably members of this forum. 100% of the members aren't buying the M3, and definitely not 100% ready to put money down on day one.
I am sure the numbers will be WAY higher by launch date and especially after people start seeing them, but as far as people waiting in line to put a deposit down two years in advance, I just don't think so.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Why?
Like I said above, they aren't selling millions of iPhone the second they go on sale. They're taking reservations for a $35k(?) car that won't be sold for two years. On the first night, that's how many people? 1000? 5000? Even if it's 10,000 people signing up the very first night of the launch, that's still peanuts for any modern web architecture.
Peanuts.
Very wrong assumption IMO. The vast majority of M3 buyers are not and never will be members of this forum. Even now the vast majority of Tesla owners are not members of TMC.
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The iPhone is not a good comparison at all. There are only small improvements from one version to another so there's no big rush to upgrade. OTOH there is no good compelling EV to buy right now that is affordable to most of the population. Nothing has 200+ mile range with supercharging for long trips except Model S and X. And they aren't affordable.
I'm coming around to believing you're right about the server size, but not because of any lack of demand. Modern servers and networks can handle hundreds of thousands of requests very quickly.
If I were to build that system I would probably make it a simple "contact details, credit card processing and done" page. Later the reservations can be moved to the logistics/manufacturing databases for processing. Honestly even if they have 500.000 reservations on the first day it works out to about 347 reservations pr minute.
That's well within the performance capabilities of a nice large web server with a nice large database server. So I don't think they worry too much about that.
That's well within the performance capabilities of a nice large web server with a nice large database server. So I don't think they worry too much about that.
Josh the German
Member
Hi folks,
in Germany there is a collocation corresponding "Reading the coffee grounds". But as a freak it´s simply impossible to be patient. The (electric) tension is growing ....
Regards from Germany
Josh
in Germany there is a collocation corresponding "Reading the coffee grounds". But as a freak it´s simply impossible to be patient. The (electric) tension is growing ....
Regards from Germany
Josh
ratsbew
Active Member
I totally agree. I'm expecting somewhere around 50,000 reservations in 24 hours, 150,000 in a week, and 500,000 before the first car is delivered.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
That's 35 transactions per minute, on average. And each transaction is just: Name, address, email, phone and credit card. Nothing special nor different than what they're already doing for Model X reservations.
This level of traffic is peanuts for a web infrastructure. Even if the first hour rush is 10x that, that's 350 transactions per minute, or 6 per second.
Still, peanuts.
Wow, you're even more optimistic than Elon who expects to sell 500,000 per year by 2020. After the initial surge of reservations I would expect it to drop off quite a bit. Only the people who've been following Tesla for some time will jump in on reserving a car they haven't even seen in person. Then once the deliveries start and buyers and the media start giving glowing reviews the reservations will kick back up and grow from there.
McHoffa
CyberOwners
Yeah, that's why I estimate MUCH lower numbers. Only those of us obsessively following Tesla will even be watching, let alone ordering the minute it goes live (I'm not ashamed to be one of those though). As time goes on and they release final stats, pictures, etc, then they will pick up the pace again with more preorders, but the real orders will start happening when people see them on the street and then find out they can afford them.
Consider this: Ford sold just over 82k Mustangs in 2014. A Mustang is a popular gas car. Toyota Camry sales were 429k for 2015, and it is the MOST popular car in the US by far. To think Tesla will have 150k preorders this year or 500k preorders in under 2 years is ludicrous.
Again, my guess is a couple thousand preorders immediately after unveiling, followed by MUCH lower numbers between then and the official production car reveal, then a few more thousand after that, and some more prior to launch. I'd guess max 20k preorders by the time it starts shipping out. After that though, you'll see sales slowly climb as people see them in person.
Regardless, I'm going to try to get in the first 100.
ratsbew
Active Member
I'm probably overly optimistic, but I personally know at least 8 people (middle class people who can't afford the Model S, but want one) who know about the "cheap Tesla" and want it to be their next car. These are people who only know about the "cheap Tesla" and not that it's called Model 3. They aren't fanboys.
I really do think the reservations will be through the roof. I can't wait to see how close my predictions come.
We had a Tesla Model X delivery ceremony watch party at my apartment. Only half of us were fan boys before. Now we're waiting for an X to come to the KC show room and we've decided the colors of our Model 3. I doubt anyone who watches tv, reads the news, or listens to talk radio will be unaware of the 3 after the unveil. The model S comes up in Let'sPlays on YouTube.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
But how many of those people are going to put down a $2500 deposit that first night and not get to test drive the car or see one up close, know what options it will have, or even know what the final price is going to be, for probably two years?
A lot of people might want one, but aren't crazed about it to make that kind of upfront investment in something fairly intangible and on faith that it will be delivered in two years.
I think the only people willing to do that are already Tesla owners, or Tesla fanbois that want a low VIN for bragging rights. IOW, not all that many.
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