FSD-beta 2023.6.15 rollout speculation

[J-a-x]

It seems that 2023.6.15 is finally going out to Tesla employees!
Does anybody have any idea how long it typically takes for beta relases to go from internal testing to a public roll out?

I paid for FSD subscription this month then cancelled immediately once I found out I had to wait for a 2023 version (previously had assumed I could just install an older version if I paid for FSD) however Tesla wouldn't give me a refund and my cancellation doesn't technically happen until a month after I accidentally subscribed, so there's still a chance my $100 won't go to waste this month. Does anybody think its likely the general public will see FSD-beta 2023.6.15 by end of month?

 

[KArnold]

2023.6.15 is not yet showing on TeslaFi.

Here's the general order of things:

1. New release leaked on Reddit or Twitter. Nothing other than perhaps a cryptic tweet.

2. Distributed to a very small group of employees. That's apparently where we are now. Rumors started about a week ago. still most likely nothing official yet.

3. More employees see it, a few show on TeslaFi. This step takes 3 days to a week. it isn't until this step until we have a good idea what the base software level will be, i.e. 2023.6.x or 2023.12.x, etc. If you want beta, you cannot go "backwards" so conventional wisdom is "don't install (download is irrelevant) anything non-FSD releases) - just stay where you are. Around #2 or #3 we also see a tweet by Elon and that hasn't happened mentioning a date (unless I missed it).

4. It is distributed to a handful of YT influencers. This takes 1 to 2 weeks. You will see them do previews on YT.

5. The rollout begins. This can take 200 to 1k rollovers a day. Even on a quick rollout, personally I don't see it for 2 weeks after this point. There's no apparent pattern on this step - maybe you get it sooner, maybe not.

If a major bug is discovered, go back to step #1. We had that at step #5 for the initial v11 rollouts, slowing things considerably. All steps are generally observable and discussed here - obviously details of steps #1 and #2 (where we are now) is highly speculative.

My best guess for new adds at this point would be a minimum of 4 weeks but likely 6+ weeks. And even then, it's 2 steps forward and 1 back with new bugs introduced.

If you are still on 2023.6.x just stay there if you want FSDb. New FSDb base level is not yet definitive. Maybe they will decide to base on 2023.12.x instead.

 

[J-a-x]

Thanks, sounds like it'll be another month and another $100 if I want to try FSD-beta!

 

[hobertg]

How accurate is this data if it shows an update going backwards from 2023 to a 2022 FSD version?

 

[J-a-x]

Good question. I thought it was impossible…

 

[KArnold]

Good question. I thought it was impossible…

Anything is possible for Elon's buds, just not us mere mortals.

I've never understood this. Each release APPEARS to be a full install, not an incremental update. Worst case which I'd think is unlikely is that they could install the latest factory version like they do every day, and that is upward compatible.

Might be a good question for @verygreen

 

[flutas]

How accurate is this data if it shows an update going backwards from 2023 to a 2022 FSD version?

It's a TeslaFi bug, not the car actually going backwards. It's something to do with adding a new car to an existing teslafi account. Seems to basically attribute whatever the other cars version was to the new car and count it as an update.

You can also check on the 11.3.6 SW page on TeslaFi and check the "previous installs" versions, none list anything higher.

 

[tmoz]

doesn't your subscription start the day you get the software?

 

[JHCCAZ]

doesn't your subscription start the day you get the software?

The subscription is for FSD, which you can get on essentially any existing software (except on many-year-old Teslas of course). You don't have to get any new software to use FSD, nor for them to start charging for it.

So, "the day you get the software" is immaterial, because you already have the software that can activate stock FSD and the billing will start immediately.

Obviously though, what most people really want is FSD beta. All of the multiple discussions in multiple threads involve people who want that, but can't get it because their car is already on 2023.something. Pretty much anytime someone says
"How|When can I get FSD?",
they really mean FSD beta.

So the typical advice is don't subscribe yet (unless you're happy to pay for FSD for a while without FSD beta) and meanwhile don't let your car install updates that would advance it beyond the latest known FSD beta version (currently being 2023.6.15 = FSDb 11 4).

 

[JHCCAZ]

Regarding the thread topic of speculation, I speculate that the mysterious lack of expansion beyond a few employees he's one of:
a) serious bugs/regressions found, or
b) some negotiation with NHTSA over whether the recall has been satisfied by 11.4, or possibly
c) a decision to hold off pending a major capability Improvement to go with this release, e.g. acceptable parking performance on non USS cars - something that goes beyond the good enough driving shown in the Tesla Bull YouTube videos.

Whatever the reason, it's most likely IMO that the next
employee->influencer->wide rollout progression will be on 2023.6.x, but with x>15. It's been stuck on 15 too long and there has to be an important reason.

 

[snovvman]

I am still curious to know if a vehicle, for example 1) has a 2023.6.11, 2) has a 2023.12.x update staged, but does not update, and 3) subscribes to FSD and requests beta, 4) if/when 2023.6.15 FSDb does get released and beta is granted, will the vehicle retract the staged 2023.12.x update and prompt to update to 2023.6.15?

I haven't driven this car for some time and was planning to subscribe the next time I was behind the wheel, but of course an update notice shows up for the non-b branch before I had a chance to subscribe and request FSDb.

 

[KArnold]

I would guess it would. What I do know with normal releases, if you download but do NOT install, it does not prevent future downloads.

 

[jbigs]

I am still curious to know if a vehicle, for example 1) has a 2023.6.11, 2) has a 2023.12.x update staged, but does not update, and 3) subscribes to FSD and requests beta, 4) if/when 2023.6.15 FSDb does get released and beta is granted, will the vehicle retract the staged 2023.12.x update and prompt to update to 2023.6.15?

I haven't driven this car for some time and was planning to subscribe the next time I was behind the wheel, but of course an update notice shows up for the non-b branch before I had a chance to subscribe and request FSDb.

Howdy! First time commentor and new Tesla owner here.

I also have this question.

My 2019 SR+ M3 is currently on 2023.2.12. I have a pending update for 2023.12.1.1.

I really would like to test FSD Beta next time it is available. I am not currently subscribed to FSD Beta.

Should I continue to forgo updating the car, so that when they roll out 2023.6.15 FSD Beta, my car will be eligible?

Advice would be appreciated, thanks everyone!

 

[KArnold]

Should I continue to forgo updating the car, so that when they roll out 2023.6.15 FSD Beta, my car will be eligible?

Congrats on your ride and welcome to the forum.

If FSDb is your goal, I'd wait. It's only speculative (a Reddit post I believe) that said 11.4 will come out as 2023.6.15. Maybe it will, which is likely. Or maybe not. There is nothing to say what the next release will be based on.

Lets say it does come out as 2023.6.x. if you upgrade to 2023.12.x, you will miss the boat for an undetermined amount of time if you want FSDb.

Plus, even if eligible for 11.3 FSDb software, I'm not sure I recall seeing new adds yet. Maybe I missed it. Not sure they are done with the recall yet, or at least warm and fuzziness from the NHTSA.

Put reverse reasoning to it. Is there a feature in the mainline that you really, really want? Sure, a couple nice adds but nothing spectacular, IMHO. Especially for a new owner - you cant miss what you have never had. Then again, before FSDb my advice was to wait a couple of weeks anyway as new releases most often mean new bugs, sometimes serious bugs. #batterygate. There are few good reasons to smash the install button immediately on release, not knowing what's going to break. Resist the FOMO!

 

[J-a-x]

My car downloaded 2023.12.1.1 overnight. Have not installed yet but I'm considering it. Now I have to make the difficult decision of whether I hold off on the update and cross my fingers and hope for a 2023.6.15 beta is released publicly soon, or just install the update and accept that I won't have the privilege of paying to beta test.

It would be a shame to wait on the beta for a long time and miss out on useful new features in the public releases like scroll wheel shortcuts.

I actually paid $100 last month assuming if I paid I'd have a to install a beta release but didn't happen, I basically got nothing for that $100 (already had EAP so only added traffic light control which is DEFINITELY not worth $100 per month) and am hesitant to pay again. I know - last month I didn't do enough research before paying but I never dealt with a car or a software company that treated betas like this before so I had no idea. Generally you can install a beta software version whenever you want (on iOS for example). Usually the version you start from does not matter since the beta is a clean install.

if 2023.6.15 does go public and I do pay $100 there's also no guarantee the beta will roll out to me right? They roll out in batches with a bit of randomness so you never know when the update will be available during the month you subscribe, or at least that's how it seems. With regular updates they seem pretty random. Sometimes everyone gets the update but me, other times I'm lucky and get it as soon as it is released.

 

[KArnold]

IF AND WHEN Telsa decides to continue FSDb rollouts to new subscribers, your chances are good you could get it. It's the "if and when" part that's unclear. With previous releases for those with subscription, it did seem to roll out quickly.

If you want FSDb, don't install 2012.12.x yet. Keep an eye out on the forum for new FSDb releases. Or monitor on TeslaFi. I'd re-subscribe once you see it going out to hundreds of cars.

Or update to 2023.12. That would push you back a few months at best, which at that time 2023.16 will likely be mainstream.

It's a shame Telsa cannot answer a simple question like this.

 

[J-a-x]

I decided to err on the side of being more frugal and just told my car to go ahead and install 2023.12.1.1 which gives me cool scroll wheel shortcuts and prevents me from blowing another $100.

If the stars align some day I still might try FSDb.

I wonder how long until some of the improved highway autopilot features in FSDb make their way into public releases? That's what I care about in FSDb more than autopilot on city streets which I'm too scared to do in Boston (people who haven't driven here have no idea how insane our roads are). I'd be happy to try FSDb on highways and I'd really enjoy the improved visualization but I have very little interest in having it drive me in the city. Since I have EAP the highway features should come to me some day I assume...

 

[snovvman]

I'm holding out. Going to defer 2023.12.x update and see what happens. The way I see it, I can always update to the non-b branch later.

 

[jbigs]

Congrats on your ride and welcome to the forum.

If FSDb is your goal, I'd wait. It's only speculative (a Reddit post I believe) that said 11.4 will come out as 2023.6.15. Maybe it will, which is likely. Or maybe not. There is nothing to say what the next release will be based on.

Lets say it does come out as 2023.6.x. if you upgrade to 2023.12.x, you will miss the boat for an undetermined amount of time if you want FSDb.

Plus, even if eligible for 11.3 FSDb software, I'm not sure I recall seeing new adds yet. Maybe I missed it. Not sure they are done with the recall yet, or at least warm and fuzziness from the NHTSA.

Put reverse reasoning to it. Is there a feature in the mainline that you really, really want? Sure, a couple nice adds but nothing spectacular, IMHO. Especially for a new owner - you cant miss what you have never had. Then again, before FSDb my advice was to wait a couple of weeks anyway as new releases most often mean new bugs, sometimes serious bugs. #batterygate. There are few good reasons to smash the install button immediately on release, not knowing what's going to break. Resist the FOMO!

Thank you very much for the warm welcome and for the excellent answer. I will continue to defer the update and wait. Is there anyway to ask the system to stop promoting me to update?

Thank you!

 

[jbigs]

Anyone tracking if it's started rolling out? I know some were projecting this past weekend.