I have a feeling Tesla will require those that don't have basic AP to buy that before qualifying to do the subscription like they do now before qualifying them to buy the FSD
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FSD Subscription
- Thread starter Ccmun
- Start date
Nice math.
For 150 I'd definitely sign up at least just to try. That is only if they are going to offer HW update whether just with subscription or with a flat fee.
*Working right*, it could be interesting.
Price is secondary. As-is, it is not "self-driving", nowhere close.
Offering FSD as a monthly subscription can be a fiasco, since it requires explicit recurring acknowledgement that the feature is worth the price. Those who paid a one-time 7-figure for FSD are stuck with it, and can't get a refund if they don't like it. The monthly subscribers can, and will. The take and turnover rates will be hilarious, until FSD gets closer to delivering on actual *self driving*.
As-is, I might pay $10/month for it, on-par with the infotainment costs.
Actually, probably not, as FSD currently has lower value to me, than infotainment.
YMMV,
a
P.S.: Never mind the HW 2.x to 3.0 upgrade logistics and dependency. Say you sign-up for the monthly plan, get the subsidized HW3 upgrade, then cancel the next month. Then what!?
P.P.S.: And then there is the whole work-from-home effect. I'm driving the Tesla once/week now, to load up on groceries. So a hypothetical ROI from FSD is now 1/5-th of what it would have been a few months ago.
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Yeah I hope that's the case.
Paying for FSD and not get HW3 features seems not right..
I'd definitely be all in if they are gonna offer HW update with subscription. Or even for a small flat fee.
I just have a bad feeling that subscription is going to be only available for those with HW3 already installed.
Sucks I missed out on HW3 when mine was built on June 2019...
I hate renting software, so I'm not interested in this.
What I would be interested in would be a one-time transfer of my FSD license to a new vehicle. I'd order a new car right now if they let me do that…
What I would be interested in would be a one-time transfer of my FSD license to a new vehicle. I'd order a new car right now if they let me do that…
This has been a long time coming. As has been discussed before (but not yet in this thread) there is a sunk cost into every Tesla built of self driving hardware and it makes zero sense to not find a way to monetize that hardware. Subscription/short term activation of FSD does this.
I think those that have 2.5 or earlier will be SOL unless they pay on their own dime to upgrade to the 3.0 FSD computer. This will be a significant barrier to anyone that isn't planning on using FSD quite a bit.
The low numbers most have speculated so far would kill their point of purchase sale numbers for FSD. Why pay up front when Tesla will finance the feature as a 'rental'? I don't expect this to be a long term loan program, but rather a service aimed at road trips and the pricing will be tuned for this. afadeev could be close at $499/month. If Tesla can bring their computer system into the 21st century I would speculate it could be weekly. Say $200-$250/week. Which could end up saving many customers money over the $499 a month depending on how they vacation.
I am also not understanding why Tesla stopped their 'one week' trial of what used to be EAP and now FSD. I expect this to show back up as well as another way to jump start FSD sales.
I think those that have 2.5 or earlier will be SOL unless they pay on their own dime to upgrade to the 3.0 FSD computer. This will be a significant barrier to anyone that isn't planning on using FSD quite a bit.
The low numbers most have speculated so far would kill their point of purchase sale numbers for FSD. Why pay up front when Tesla will finance the feature as a 'rental'? I don't expect this to be a long term loan program, but rather a service aimed at road trips and the pricing will be tuned for this. afadeev could be close at $499/month. If Tesla can bring their computer system into the 21st century I would speculate it could be weekly. Say $200-$250/week. Which could end up saving many customers money over the $499 a month depending on how they vacation.
I am also not understanding why Tesla stopped their 'one week' trial of what used to be EAP and now FSD. I expect this to show back up as well as another way to jump start FSD sales.
I feel like anything over 150 a month would be a hard sell for many people. Cus
FSD with further improvement like actual automatic city driving maybe worth the price you mention but not at current state imo.
I'd predict the subscription price will start lower and increase as Tesla rolls out more features.
I think this is where you gain advarange of buying outright as you are investing for the future and not affected by price hike with added features.
Personally, I'm on the fence for the $7000 FSD upgrade. The biggest detractor for me is the FSD upgrade is not transferable to my next Tesla. A subscription model should change this. Priced appropriately ($100-$125/Month), I would definitely subscribe.
Since there is the probability that I would end up subscribed for longer than my car loan, at $100 or $125 per month, it would end up costing more than just having purchased the FSD upgrade upfront. However, I would be able to transfer it to my next Tesla without another $7000 lump sum. I do wonder how it will work for multi-Tesla homes, would the subscription follow the car or the driver, or a combination.
Of course, all of this is assuming a Tesla FSD subscription works like most other subscriptions...
ETA:
Also, a FSD subscription is reliant on usefulness. FSD will need to be in somewhat better shape before people will spend $150/month on Smart summon or NoA. Contrasting that with $7000 as an investment in the FSD future, a subscription model needs to be useful immediately.
Since there is the probability that I would end up subscribed for longer than my car loan, at $100 or $125 per month, it would end up costing more than just having purchased the FSD upgrade upfront. However, I would be able to transfer it to my next Tesla without another $7000 lump sum. I do wonder how it will work for multi-Tesla homes, would the subscription follow the car or the driver, or a combination.
Of course, all of this is assuming a Tesla FSD subscription works like most other subscriptions...
ETA:
Also, a FSD subscription is reliant on usefulness. FSD will need to be in somewhat better shape before people will spend $150/month on Smart summon or NoA. Contrasting that with $7000 as an investment in the FSD future, a subscription model needs to be useful immediately.
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They will HAVE to price it such that it is "obviously better" to pay for it up front, and this option only works for people who plan to use the feature very sparingly, or dont have the money to pay for it up front.
if there is any question that "paying for it up front" is "significantly" better, they are shooting themselves in the foot on the revenue. It has to be priced such that when someone is looking at their new car, there isnt a "question" that buying it up front is the financially "better" alternative.
Translation; I think those prices of $100 to $150 that people are throwing around are wishful thinking, especially if its a "start and stop when you wish" type subscription.
if there is any question that "paying for it up front" is "significantly" better, they are shooting themselves in the foot on the revenue. It has to be priced such that when someone is looking at their new car, there isnt a "question" that buying it up front is the financially "better" alternative.
Translation; I think those prices of $100 to $150 that people are throwing around are wishful thinking, especially if its a "start and stop when you wish" type subscription.
This. Agree 100%. Tesla should link subscription to an individual driving a Tesla or Familly of Tesla owners, as opposed to physical cars. That would be a real subscription (like Spotify, Apple Music, etc.) The way Teslas work make it 100% possible. So for instance I can jump in ANY Tesla and with my ID/account use FSD if I have subscription. Something like that.
For my Cybertruck I plan on using it for short drives around town and taking it off road. I would be surprised If I averaged 2,500 miles per year. I do not plan on getting FSD but would pay $10/day, $50/week or something premium for the time or two I would take it longer distances.
I do have FSD on my Model 3 as that is my daily driver and I plan on keeping it.
I do have FSD on my Model 3 as that is my daily driver and I plan on keeping it.
I agree to certain extent. We would need access to data that only, maybe, Tesla has.
Right now Tesla gets $7000 for each car with the upgrade. If Tesla gets the car back (leases or trade-in), they can re-charge the $7000 for that car.
We also know that some number of buyers are hesitant or will never pay the $7000, but they would pay some smaller number each month.
All of this money for FSD is basically free money for Tesla, either way (except for the cost of upgrading HW).
Which one of these tactics makes more money is dependent upon how many people sign up for each. Tesla's accounting team has probably projected this. It is easy to guess that more people will subscribe for $150/month than will pay $7000, with a small pool, the $7000 will bring in more money; but as the pool grows larger, eventually it is likely that the $150 subscriptions will bring in money overall. That's especially true, if you factor in, that in all likelihood, subscriptions would probably make you pay for your own HW upgrades, when you want the new features.
Tesla does know one thing: Tesla fans will pay $7000 for promise. I doubt that they short sell themselves on a subscription model. I would be really surprised if they only charged $100-$150/month. That's just the number that would make sense to me, long term.
The people whose revenue they are trying to capture are not willing to pay a lot. If they price it too high, Tesla will be in the same boat they are in now, but probably worse, because some of the people who would have been willing to pay $7000 up front might decide to skip that and just pay $250/month sporadically. That would be the worst-case, if they were to lose both markets.
I assume that Tesla is smarter than me and has access to more data, so they will do what they project will be most beneficial. I just hope whatever that it is doesn't make it so I skip FSD, because I do want to be a part of that adventure.
It certainly makes sense for increasing cash flow. Not many people have the ability to plunk down 7k after purchase without financing. This opens it up for a lot more people. I would like to see an option to have FSD attached to your Tesla account. That way it carrys over between cars and you dont have to worry about used cars getting it taken away by Tesla.
RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
A subscription makes eminently good sense. I'd certainly use such a service when taking long trips. To pay $7,000 dollars for an as yet unfinished FSD system, which is not transferable to another Tesla is, well, nuts.
If FSD ever becomes FSD (as in hands off the steering wheel full-self-drive) then I'd go for whatever it cost. But, at the moment, I'll pass.
Rich
If FSD ever becomes FSD (as in hands off the steering wheel full-self-drive) then I'd go for whatever it cost. But, at the moment, I'll pass.
Rich
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
And that, in a nutshell, is why any subscription model Tesla offers for FSD that isn't locking you into at least years worth of subscription running into the thousands of dollars is a terrible sign for them ever delivering what they originally promised.
If they could deliver what was promised- folks'd be lining up to pay full price and MORE for it.
The fact they might cave and settle for $100-200 here on months you're taking a trip to get Noa suggests they're know they're not gonna get to that.
Celledral
Member
Was waiting for FSD to become a subscription for a year now, but my June 2019 Model is still on HW 2.5. Really interested to see how the upgrade will play out.
With subscription based FSD, the decision gets interesting.
Current iteration of FSD:
Pros:
For subscription-based FSD:
Pros:
This isn't a unique technique as it's common for software but it is not a concept people are used to seeing for their cars. Paying for what I consider BETA sw is a little different though- features always evolve over time but I don't consider FSD to be cohesive in any way but rather a collection of beta features which has kept me from pulling the trigger all together.
Current iteration of FSD:
Pros:
- Pay less overall (if own the car for a long time)
- Effectively paying for future functionality that you do not have access to yet for an in determinant amount of time.
- You also may not have control over how long you own the car (if you get in an accident and total the car but FSD price has now gone up) since FSD stays with the car and not your user account.
- Tesla may not value FSD as much if Traded-in to them (since it doesn't cost them anything extra)
For subscription-based FSD:
Pros:
- Less upfront cost
- Flexibility (Not sure if it will be month-to-month, annual, etc. but generally speaking)
- Insulates from risk of loss of the vehicle (effectively links FSD to account vs vehicle)
- Pay more overall (depending on how long)
This isn't a unique technique as it's common for software but it is not a concept people are used to seeing for their cars. Paying for what I consider BETA sw is a little different though- features always evolve over time but I don't consider FSD to be cohesive in any way but rather a collection of beta features which has kept me from pulling the trigger all together.
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