FSD Subscription

[Knightshade]

Knightshade you are slipping up lately.... I did not say give them a free Tesla that is your own imagination

No, you picked a DIFFERENT Tesla product to be largely given away in the name of safety.

Neither idea made any sense was the point you appear to have missed.

Kn
Tesla are about to be hit by a VW train in 2021

Oh, right, the "competition is coming!" argument that keeps being wrong year after year after year.

Remember- VW is the company that said in 2013 they'd be #1 in EV sales by 2018.

How'd that work out?

Same company that had to physically plug in each id.3 they'd had sitting parked for months due to software issues into a laptop to update them before they could be sold because figuring out OTA was too hard.

And they're still missing features they promise they'll figure out how to add later.

I think your imaginary train is on the wrong track there

 

[bdub85]

To build on this, I am pretty sure Tesla would prefer a million FSD subscribers than 50,000 people paying $10K. They will target a much larger audience if priced right, and also get more user data.

It only benefits them to lower the barrier of entry to FSD. A lot more people will be willing/able to pay 100/month instead of forking over 10k.

 

[Knightshade]

To build on this, I am pretty sure Tesla would prefer a million FSD subscribers than 50,000 people paying $10K.

Sure- but the take rate for FSD, according to what little data we do have, is MUCH higher than that.

They'd lose money, massively, if they charged netflix prices monthly rather than $8000 up front.

Which is probably why they don't do that.

T
and also get more user data.

Not sure why you think that?

They can run the same data collection campaigns regardless of if your car has paid FSD or not.

Again folks seem to misunderstand how tesla data collection actually works.

 

[Mattopotamus]

Sure- but the take rate for FSD, according to what little data we do have, is MUCH higher than that.

They'd lose money, massively, if they charged netflix prices monthly rather than $8000 up front.

Which is probably why they don't do that.

Can you link to that data? I've never seen actual numbers.

I can't imagine it is more that 15% of buyers (I feel like that is beyond generous), and it would only take 5-6 years for a subscription on a new car to hit the $10K mark (if they go affordable). That doesn't include all of the current owners who jump on the subscription. If it is 15% now, I would think at $10K it is definitely in the single digits.

 

[Knightshade]

Can you link to that data? I've never seen actual numbers.

I can't imagine it is more that 15% of buyers (I feel like that is beyond generous), and it would only take 5-6 years for a subscription on a new car to hit the $10K mark (if they go affordable). That doesn't include all of the current owners who jump on the subscription. If it is 15% now, I would think at $10K it is definitely in the single digits.

Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker

35.4% take rate on FSD.


Obviously, like TeslaFi, it's only a sample size of all owners so the real stats might be different, but it's the best info I'm aware of existing.

35.4% of $8000 is $2832 per car spread across all cars.

At $10 a month they'd need 100% of cars sold to pay for a monthly subscription for over 23 years before the subscription got them more money than selling up front (and that's ignoring that future money is less valuable than present day money)

Which is why the $10/mo idea is insane from a financial health perspective for Tesla.

Even at a 15% FSD take rate (and that's almost certainly low compared to real world) you'd need 100% $10 subscription rates, running for 10 years to break even. Which is still years longer than the average person owns a new car.


Oh, BTW, the Model 3 sheet has 36.9% take rate- so even higher than the Y

Teslike Model 3 Survey & Order Tracker #3

 

[HyperionMark]

$150/month is clearly the floor now that it is $10k outright. Anyone saying less than that is not connected to reality. Likelier around $200. I'll hedge my bets and say $150-$250 per month.

 

[CertLive]

Sure- but the take rate for FSD, according to what little data we do have, is MUCH higher than that.

They'd lose money, massively, if they charged netflix prices monthly rather than $8000 up front.

Which is probably why they don't do that.





Not sure why you think that?

They can run the same data collection campaigns regardless of if your car has paid FSD or not.

Again folks seem to misunderstand how tesla data collection actually works.

How do you lose money you are not getting if a smaller percentage adopt for an ever increasing price? Or possibly would you lose the sale of an actual car in the future as the software feature is not transferable?

Also our data that is collected is valuable I suppose the more miles you do the bigger the discount Nice price models here...

I think a subscription is a sensible option. But also I think it could be a big win not priced at £10,000 and split but be as free as Netflix to signup for a month and leave as you choose. Signup for trips or signup for life up to you and that I think brings more value for now and the future than trying to pressure people and tell them your price is going up while we use you to train our dojo and find our bugs.

 

[Mattopotamus]

Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker

35.4% take rate on FSD.


Obviously, like TeslaFi, it's only a sample size of all owners so the real stats might be different, but it's the best info I'm aware of existing.

35.4% of $8000 is $2832 per car spread across all cars.

At $10 a month they'd need 100% of cars sold to pay for a monthly subscription for over 23 years before the subscription got them more money than selling up front (and that's ignoring that future money is less valuable than present day money)

Which is why the $10/mo idea is insane from a financial health perspective for Tesla.

Even at a 15% FSD take rate (and that's almost certainly low compared to real world) you'd need 100% $10 subscription rates, running for 10 years to break even. Which is still years longer than the average person owns a new car.


Oh, BTW, the Model 3 sheet has 36.9% take rate- so even higher than the Y

Teslike Model 3 Survey & Order Tracker #3

Yeah, I wouldn't peg TeslaFi as near close to the norm. Those are the hardcore users, and I am actually surprised it's not closer to 75% there.

Also, $10 is ridiculous. I am thinking ~$150.

 

[terboboost]

Are there people that would really pay $100+ a month for FSD, or just keyboard dreamers?

The average length of car ownership is ~8 years. That means total cost of FSD subscription would be $8000+...and when you sold/wrecked the car, that money would evaporate unlike the resale value that FSD currently offers. That seems insane to me to pay $100 a month for a service that you don't own. Not to mention, as time goes on, that theoretical $100/month will increase drastically to fall inline with FSD purchase cost. I can stomach it for $10 music and crap, but $100 FSD makes no sense to me personally (I have FSD already anyways).

And furthermore, people would really pay $100+ every time they want to take a road trip? That wipes out any EV vs ICE savings instantly, and is a pretty big cost for a few days on the road.

 

[Mattopotamus]

Are there people that would really pay $100+ a month for FSD, or just keyboard dreamers?

The average length of car ownership is ~8 years. That means total cost of FSD subscription would be $8000+...and when you sold/wrecked the car, that money would evaporate unlike the resale value that FSD currently offers. That seems insane to me to pay $100 a month for a service that you don't own. Not to mention, as time goes on, that theoretical $100/month will increase drastically to fall inline with FSD purchase cost. I can stomach it for $10 music and crap, but $100 FSD makes no sense to me personally (I have FSD already anyways).

And furthermore, people would really pay $100+ every time they want to take a road trip? That wipes out any EV vs ICE savings instantly, and is a pretty big cost for a few days on the road.

Well the consensus is that FSD as a subscription wouldn't be tied to the car. That is the reason people would be willing to pay a premium over $8K-$10K rolled into a loan. If you can toggle the subscription on/off (like a subscription), it wouldn't be tied to the car.

 

[Knightshade]

How do you lose money you are not getting if a smaller percentage adopt for an ever increasing price?

I already showed the math.

At $10/mo, using the current $8000 take rates, you'd need 100% of owners to subscribe for like 24 years each before you didn't lose money compared to just selling it for 8k up front.

Even if the used take rate is double the whole fleet from being just the people in the sample you're still looking at much longer required ownership than most folks own a car for.

Are there people that would really pay $100+ a month for FSD, or just keyboard dreamers?

The average length of car ownership is ~8 years. That means total cost of FSD subscription would be $8000+...and when you sold/wrecked the car, that money would evaporate unlike the resale value that FSD currently offers.

Elon already explicitly said subscribing would cost more than buying- so that math checks out.

That seems insane to me to pay $100 a month for a service that you don't own.

Why?

People lease cars all the time, for a lot more than $100 a month, for a car they don't own (and for Model 3 leases, can't own at the end).

People make bad financial choices all the time if it's cheaper up front.

Plus, if you can drop in/out, you'll get at least SOME revenue from people who only want it for road trips and would otherwise just pay you nothing (but need to make it expensive enough that people who WOULD want it all the time don't go that route)

Not to mention, as time goes on, that theoretical $100/month will increase drastically to fall inline with FSD purchase cost.

That could be one upside to a long subscription term- locking in the price.

And furthermore, people would really pay $100+ every time they want to take a road trip? That wipes out any EV vs ICE savings instantly, and is a pretty big cost for a few days on the road.

If my choice is:

Pay for gasoline, and do 100% of the driving myself
or
Pay for FSD for the trip and let the car do 90% of the highway work


#2 is a very, very, very easy choice.

 

[CertLive]

Ok ill take a pun if 35% of enthusiastic monthly stat trackers have bought it then I bet 20% ish have in the fleet. 80% of the rest of the fleet at £10 a month yearly subscription so £120 pledge brings in how much revenue?

I should also add vs the cost of the hardware sitting in the car not being used?

 

[DrtyJrze]

People, we’ve literally done the math IN THIS THREAD already...(again, page 6)

The FSD take rate would have to be less than 4% for these $15 pipe dreams to come true.

This is an EASY math problem. Not sure why this is such a stumbling block for some of you.

 

[DrtyJrze]

Ok ill take a pun if 35% of enthusiastic monthly stat trackers have bought it then I bet 20% ish have in the fleet. 80% of the rest of the fleet at £10 a month yearly subscription so £120 pledge brings in how much revenue?

I should also add vs the cost of the hardware sitting in the car not being used?

You’ve been making the same wrong argument since $7k.

 

[CertLive]

You’ve been making the same wrong argument since $7k.

and the uptake of fsd is still not that strong...

 

[Knightshade]

Ok ill take a pun if 35% of enthusiastic monthly stat trackers have bought it then I bet 20% ish have in the fleet. 80% of the rest of the fleet at £10 a month yearly subscription so £120 pledge brings in how much revenue?

This makes 0 sense.

If you charged $10/mo the 20% wouldn't pay $8000 for it.

Running your ACTUAL math looks like this:

20% take rate at $8000= $1600 revenue per car spread across all cars.

So at $10/mo you'd need 160 months to break even from 100% of the fleet.

Which is 13.3 years.

Which is much longer than people usually own cars.

So again- your suggestion loses money for Tesla compared to just charging $8000 for it and having a 20% take rate.

O
I should also add vs the cost of the hardware sitting in the car not being used?

Why?

The HW IS being used- basic AP needs it and comes with all models but the 35k SR.

 

[SageBrush]

Can you link to that data? I've never seen actual numbers.

I can't imagine it is more that 15% of buyers (I feel like that is beyond generous), and it would only take 5-6 years for a subscription on a new car to hit the $10K mark (if they go affordable). That doesn't include all of the current owners who jump on the subscription. If it is 15% now, I would think at $10K it is definitely in the single digits.

Elon tweeted that monthly FSD subscription is coming in 2021.

Amongst the many problems with your fantasy numbers is the presumption that people would keep the subscription going continuously. A large part of the attraction of an FSD subscription is to only pay for it during trips.

 

[Knightshade]

Elon tweeted that monthly FSD subscription is coming in 2021.

Amongst the many problem with your fantasy numbers is the presumption that people would keep the subscription going continuously. A large part of the attraction of an FSD subscription is to only pay for it during trips.

One interesting addendum to that though.

They seem to keep putting off the subscription offering until FSD on city streets is ready for wide release (they've already bumped offering the subscription from this year to next)

Possibly they are thinking they need to offer some day to day value for people to make them want to keep it beyond the once or twice a year roadtrip to make offering a subscription service worthwhile at all.

If they were ONLY aiming for the "I want this once a year for a highway trip" crowd they could've launched THAT subscription quite a while ago.

 

[Mattopotamus]

Elon tweeted that monthly FSD subscription is coming in 2021.

Amongst the many problem with your fantasy numbers is the presumption that people would keep the subscription going continuously. A large part of the attraction of an FSD subscription is to only pay for it during trips.

Indeed. I wouldn't be surprised to see a discount for going yearly with the subscription, and some super premium for month-to-month.

 

[SergeyUser]

Real FSD will certainly cost more than $100/month, in parking costs alone. I mean, if I can leave my car and let it park itself somewhere and later pick me up, it not only saves parking costs, but time as well. Certainly more than $100/month.

Now, I don’t expect it to happen, practically speaking (I mean not some city, geofenced, etc, but really any city, including NYC) until 2030.

So we are left with EAP level of functionality, when person sits behind the wheel. Well, if Tesla can charge 8,000 upfront, that clearly means many people will happily pay $100/month. Especially if some transferability between cars will be included.