... Unless battery prices fall drastically,....
After 35,000 cars delivered and 300 million cells they can get even better bulk discount prices at Costco.
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... Unless battery prices fall drastically,....
After 35,000 cars delivered and 300 million cells they can get even better bulk discount prices at Costco.
Trying to set impossible, unrealistic goals? Yeesh. If Tesla were able to do that, then I'd buy every share of stock I possibly could get my hands on. Those are game changing numbers. Realistically I expect 120-150 miles for the starting pack and upgrades, for a price, just like the Model S. The S has 160-230-300 mile packs and so I'd like to see something like 130-200-275 mile packs for the Gen III. The base pack will get you above 100 real world miles which is more than anyone else is offering.
What you want will happen, but not anytime (unless there is some kind of battery breakthrough) soon. And when it does happen I hope and expect that Tesla is the car company to do it.
There's a lot of experts that have said that Tesla in NO way will be able to produce the 300 mile Model S, not at that pricetag.
We don't know when Tesla plan to start selling GenIII, but I'm sure Elon is waiting for the battery price to drop below $200 per kwh.
Battery cost dropping below $200 per kWh soon, says Teslas Elon Musk
Maybe 3 years from now is the not-too-distant future.
Say they will be able to get it for $175 per kwh, considering bulk discount. The GenIII will be smaller and weigh less than Model S, and might reach the magic 300 miles with a 75 kwh-pack. That's $13125 ...
I think Elon Musk is heading for a game changer, that seems to be his nature (he just commercialized space flight).
To me it's clear. If they want to sell 200k cars per year they have to have something much better than a improved Nissal Leaf.
I love your enthusiasm, Fredrik, but you're definitely pushing the envelope. I'd bet Tesla is close to $200 per kWh now. But there has to be a decent porofit made on each car sold. Probably 20% gross profit per car which gets them 10%-12% net on the Mas Market Car. You're comparing, at best, a $13K battery pack to a $3K gas engine. Granted, I'd love it to be true since I plan on buying one of these cars but I'm just trying to be realistic on what I'll get. I currently expect to pay around $50K, after rebate, for a loaded, max battery, BlueStar. I currently expect that car to be better in range than the 60 kWh Model S for $10K less. It won't be as big a car and it won't be quite as luxurious. If I get more then...wow. Tesla's car will be much better than the Leaf in both range and looks.
Elon compared GenIII with BMW 3-series, that is what he's competing with, and they don't sell for $50K, but between $30K and $40K.
I'm going to be somewhat pessimistic and predict a stripped down base model with 150 miles EPA range at $37,499 before rebate, $29,999 after, then larger packs and options going up from there.
I don't see why. I'd have to be a pretty dumb bunny to not realize that as soon as I purchase any technology product in two or three years it will either be much better and cheaper or way better and the same price. What I'm paying for is the ability to have it now. It's really no different that getting a Signature.
I don't see why. I'd have to be a pretty dumb bunny to not realize that as soon as I purchase any technology product in two or three years it will either be much better and cheaper or way better and the same price. What I'm paying for is the ability to have it now. It's really no different that getting a Signature.
However, your Model S can still take advantage of future battery improvements and at some point be better than when new. If the car is still in good shape and you still like it then it's worth getting a newer better pack when the old one no longer meets your needs. It could be lighter giving you better performance and still give you more range. Winning. :smile:Yeah, It's called planned obsolescence. Anything electronic has that baked in.
... Winning. :smile:
* Less bells and whistles, like no 17inch screen
... would be $14K for an 80 kWh pack (300 mile). That's half the price of the car in batteries alone.
If the weight is 35% less, it needs 35% less energy to drive it.
Improved Cd over the Model S. (0.21)