Gen III Range & Pricing Speculation

[brg2290]

Yes, but the $30K base price is factoring in the 7500 tax credit, how many people that regularly buy cars 30K and below have enough tax liability to take full advantage of that credit?

I don't know how many, but you can count me in this category. My current 2012 Leaf lease expires in Dec. 2014, and I've been watching the Gen. III speculation threads with great interest hoping that my lease end might line up with Gen. III availability. My wife and I combined have enough tax liability to qualify for the full credit. I've never purchased a car that cost more than $10,000 - preferring to buy 5 to 10 year old used cars with low miles from original owner's. The Gen. III would be the most expensive car I've ever purchased, but the Leaf has made me an EV convert, and I can't see going back to an ICE when that lease expires. On another note, it's interesting for me to see the discussions arguing for a 200 mile Gen. III minimum range as opposed to 160. Obviously, coming from Leaf ownership, even 160 looks pretty attractive - 200 would be awesome.
Gary

 

[Sublime]

brg2290,
I think there are a lot of people in that category (make enough for full tax credit, could afford $60k cars, but just don't spend that much on cars). If you make $100k, you could take full advantage of the tax credit. I seem to remember reading that the average income of LEAF drivers was just over $100k.

As for speculation on the car, I'll go way out there. It seems that Elon recently got optimistic that Gen III would be happening in 2015. Phinergy demo'd their consumable aluminum-air battery, saying they had a manufacturer looking to use the tech in 2015. Tesla files patents for a system using metal-air batteries as a range extension scheme. The Volt seems to sell well at around $40k before incentives and with just 30 miles of electric range and an ICE backup plan.

If Gen III had the Phinergy for range extension and even 60 miles of range (20kWh), it would sell like hotcakes at $30k.

 

[ggies07]

I don't know how many, but you can count me in this category. My current 2012 Leaf lease expires in Dec. 2014, and I've been watching the Gen. III speculation threads with great interest hoping that my lease end might line up with Gen. III availability. My wife and I combined have enough tax liability to qualify for the full credit. I've never purchased a car that cost more than $10,000 - preferring to buy 5 to 10 year old used cars with low miles from original owner's. The Gen. III would be the most expensive car I've ever purchased, but the Leaf has made me an EV convert, and I can't see going back to an ICE when that lease expires. On another note, it's interesting for me to see the discussions arguing for a 200 mile Gen. III minimum range as opposed to 160. Obviously, coming from Leaf ownership, even 160 looks pretty attractive - 200 would be awesome.
Gary

I'm right there with ya. My wife and I are in our late 20's, have no debt except for the house, and have great credit. I'm ready to buy one of these suckers.

 

[JRod0802]

It seems that Elon recently got optimistic that Gen III would be happening in 2015.

I don't have a link for it, but in March this year, Elon said that Gen III is 3-4 years out. So that's March 2016 - March 2017. Personally, I think it'll further slip, with the first delivery in summer 2017.

 

[ElSupreme]

I'm right there with ya. My wife and I are in our late 20's, have no debt except for the house, and have great credit. I'm ready to buy one of these suckers.

Get a Model S! That is what I did. :biggrin:

But yes a 30k car is 'for the masses'.

A mid level (1.6T I4) Ford Fusion with leather is: $27k
A mid level (2.5 I4) Nissan Altima (SL) with leather is: $28.5k
A mid level (I4) Honda Accord (EX-L) with leather is: $29k
Toyota's website is horrible, and I didn't get to build a Camry quickly and easily!

I would contend that all of those cars are "Cars for the masses". There are a lot of people that can't afford such a car, but they are sill cars for the masses. Note that getting a V6 (or the 2.0T in the Ford) in any of those cars basically puts you over $30k all by itself. Top off the fact that an EV will almost assuredly have a lower operating cost I would contend even a $35k Tesla Gen III could be a car for the masses. It just requires a little education of the masses for adoption to start.

 

[ggies07]

Get a Model S! That is what I did. :biggrin:

hahaha. Good for you! I wish. We are in good shape, but not great. Plus, we have a two and a half year old, so not all our money could go to a car. That's why I'm sitting here waiting for the years to go by and hopefully the Gen III will be priced right.

 

[ElSupreme]

... we have a two and a half year old ...

And I (hopefully, ***knocks on wood***) effectively postponed such a thing from happening with for ~4 years. :biggrin:

Otherwise affording the Model S would be quite hard. I have heard stories about how much children cost.

 

[ckessel]

But yes a 30k car is 'for the masses'.
...
I would contend even a $35k Tesla Gen III could be a car for the masses. It just requires a little education of the masses for adoption to start.

Yep, even somewhere in the neighborhood of $40-45k for the Gen3 would be a mass market car when fuel savings are taken into account. The lease + electricity costs on a $40-45k Gen3 is likely to be right on par with the lease + gas costs on a $30k Accord. Hopefully by that point in time Tesla and EVs in general will have made enough news that folks will be more attuned to thinking about the gas savings angle.

 

[ggies07]

And I (hopefully, ***knocks on wood***) effectively postponed such a thing from happening with for ~4 years. :biggrin:

Otherwise affording the Model S would be quite hard. I have heard stories about how much children cost.

hahaha. nice! Oh man, what a beating it is. Just the amount of money spent from daycare (or somewhere besides home) to when they are ready for school is crazy. I hadn't thought about that when my wife told me she was pregnant.

 

[Rifleman]

Plus, we have a two and a half year old, so not all our money could go to a car.

I feel your pain on that one. If I was not insistent of putting money into my daughters college fund, I would likely be driving a Model S right now instead of a Volt.

 

[JRP3]

It seems that Elon recently got optimistic that Gen III would be happening in 2015. Phinergy demo'd their consumable aluminum-air battery, saying they had a manufacturer looking to use the tech in 2015. Tesla files patents for a system using metal-air batteries as a range extension scheme.

Last I heard Musk was talking G3 in 2016-17, and I'm quite sure that Phinergy doesn't have a viable product and has nothing to do with Tesla's patents.

 

[clmason]

I created a Gen 3 option and pricing chart.

I am calculating:
Minimum acceptable config for low end / price sensitive buyers is $40,235
Year 1 Production ASP is $56,284 and will be 100% the larger battery pack size
Max Build Smaller Pack $57,585
Max Build Larger Pack $63,495

Sharing with you all in case you want to check it out and chime in.

 

[ChrisH]

I created a Gen 3 option and pricing chart.

I am calculating:
Minimum acceptable config for low end / price sensitive buyers is $40,235
Year 1 Production ASP is $56,284 and will be 100% the larger battery pack size
Max Build Smaller Pack $57,585
Max Build Larger Pack $63,495

Sharing with you all in case you want to check it out and chime in.


View attachment 44344

Thanks for putting this together. Will be interesting to see how it all really plays out. Does BMW have a 3 series without leather seats standard? Or at least leatherette or some cheaper version?

i would hope the Model E comes with something nicer than cloth standard.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, I hope it isn't $9,000 more to add 40 miles of range :/

 

[ryanjm]

I created a Gen 3 option and pricing chart.

I am calculating:
Minimum acceptable config for low end / price sensitive buyers is $40,235
Year 1 Production ASP is $56,284 and will be 100% the larger battery pack size
Max Build Smaller Pack $57,585
Max Build Larger Pack $63,495

Sharing with you all in case you want to check it out and chime in.

Nice job here, but I think the car will max out a good $7k-$10k higher than what you've laid out, only because you didn't include a Performance option on this chart. I am hoping/expecting for the maxed-out car to basically be a smaller Model S, i.e. pano roof, retractable door handles as part of the tech package, air suspension. You've got all this included, so I'm with you there.

Also, I expect the bigger battery to buy you MUCH more than 40 miles of range. In fact, it has to for the cost difference. I expect 250-275 miles of EPA range for the larger pack, similar to today's Model S. I think Model S will get a bigger battery option (300 EPA miles?) about the same time Model E releases.

 

[772]

I created a Gen 3 option and pricing chart.

I am calculating:
Minimum acceptable config for low end / price sensitive buyers is $40,235
Year 1 Production ASP is $56,284 and will be 100% the larger battery pack size
Max Build Smaller Pack $57,585
Max Build Larger Pack $63,495

Sharing with you all in case you want to check it out and chime in.

Your prices may be correct, but I don't see how year 1 production can be restricted to the larger pack only... the goal was to get a $35k car in 3 years, not a $45k car. They might be production constrained in year 1, but it could cause some PR issues if the car appears to cost $10k more than they promised...

 

[GSP]

I hope leather is not standard, some people prefer cloth seats. I do hope seat and steering wheel heaters are standard.

The gen3 might not need to offer air suspension, even as an option. This would simplify development and manufacturing, lowering cost. I doubt the BMW 3 has an air suspension option.

GSP

 

[aronth5]

Your prices may be correct, but I don't see how year 1 production can be restricted to the larger pack only... the goal was to get a $35k car in 3 years, not a $45k car. They might be production constrained in year 1, but it could cause some PR issues if the car appears to cost $10k more than they promised...[/QUOTE]

While I share your concern with the $35k price tag, it will have little meaning in the long run. Unfortunately, Elon should have stuck with frequent statements that the Model E will cost about half the cost of the Model S.
Just like the Model S's initial price of $58,570 prior to the tax credit was widely touted by Elon just look at the base Model S cost now, $71K. Price inflation will also happen with the Model E. Critics will hammer Tesla over still being priced out of the "mass market" but the consumer will have the final say and you will see the majority of Model E's costing well over $50k. This will get exacerbated when the federal tax credit is no longer available which will happen 1 year after they sell their 200k BEV car. (tax credit gets reduced to 50% during the first 6 months and then 25% during the second six months). http://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB/ar09.html

 

[Trev Page]

Wait, I thought I heard that Elon said they are targeting a 35k price *without* the tax credit. They well know the 200k production number kills the tax credit so it would be critical for them to price the car as it if didn't exist at all. This is huge deal for them as their future relies on the success of the Gen 3. They can't afford to mess up this car, it has to be as perfect as humanly possible.

 

[clmason]

Wait, I thought I heard that Elon said they are targeting a 35k price *without* the tax credit. They well know the 200k production number kills the tax credit so it would be critical for them to price the car as it if didn't exist at all. This is huge deal for them as their future relies on the success of the Gen 3. They can't afford to mess up this car, it has to be as perfect as humanly possible.

$35k has been touted as the "starting price" and you need to assume that is the base car price at the small pack. It's up from there with each option. Most of the analysts reports have an ASP of $45K+ and they have access to Tesla Execs more than we do.

The final price will be a lot higher than $35k, no doubt about it. Mass Market does not mean a certain price point it more pertains to a number of units sold annually. 100,000+ units per year qualifies as a mass market vehicle IMO.

 

[JRP3]

Minimum acceptable config for low end / price sensitive buyers is $40,235

I think I'd be perfectly happy with Supercharger access only, and not because I need it but for future resale value. The base car is going to be light years beyond what I drive now, and I'm sure many in the Gen3 market might feel the same.