General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[2virgule5]

That would be the kind of low-end projection of weekly rate for the first 2 Quarters. Barely reaching 2500/w by the very end of Q1 and 5000/w by the end of Q2. That's about 56000 Model 3 in H1. Staying at 5000/w for all H2 (minus a couple of weeks) would mean + 130000 produced, for a yearly total of ~186.000. I have yet to see a plan for 10k/w, and based on the last ER call is does not look like a sure thing in 2018.

To me this is the floor and anything less will be disappointing (of course, *sugar* can happen). What may help a bit is that at this rate Q1 will still go over filling the initial production of premium M3 for existing owners, which probably means north of $50k per vehicle.

 

[dandurston]

I wonder why Tesla disclosed the latest Model 3 production delay so early?

They could easily have waited several months and broke the bad news a month or so before the expected date, as they usually do.

If the latest delay is due to the a mismash of production problems, then you'd think Elon's perpetual optimism would prevent them giving up on the Q1 5K goal until closer to the deadline.

So I suspect this is caused by something essential to the 5K rate and currently out of their control - such as the order of more equipment that simply won't arrive for a few months.

 

[NZ10K]

I wonder why Tesla disclosed the latest Model 3 production delay so early?

They could easily have waited several months and broke the bad news a month or so before the expected date, as they usually do.

If the latest delay is due to the a mismash of production problems, then you'd think Elon's perpetual optimism would prevent them giving up on the Q1 5K goal until closer to the deadline.

So I suspect this is caused by something essential to the 5K rate and currently out of their control - such as the order of more equipment that simply won't arrive for a few months.

My guess is that they see some very fundamental issues that there is no way to have a quick fix. Unfortunately this also means that their latest delayed schedule is unlikely a reliable guidance. I think they are throwing dart with the new dates.

 

[zmarty]

View attachment 270852 That would be the kind of low-end projection of weekly rate for the first 2 Quarters.

Given the wording in the letter I highly highly doubt the start of the graph is correct. My best guess is the are not really at 1K right now and they will drop a lot in the first 2 weeks of January, then gradually go back up.

 

[viridi]

The real challenge, at least in the short-term, is what is the catalysts to drive the stock price higher? Elon spoke with a great deal of confidence on the Q3 earnings call about reaching 5,000 per week by the end of Q3. The bears were given much ammunitation today to attack Elon’s credibility. Clearly disappointing news was priced in, but was this news priced in? I know even as a long-term bull, who believes very much in this company, I was disappointed by today’s news. I did not care about Q4 #s, but I was hopeful that the going forward info would be more positive. I guess we now wait and see how the coming months play out. At least we do know that the M3 is as good, if not better than people hoped.

 

[Fallenone]

I wonder why Tesla disclosed the latest Model 3 production delay so early?

They could easily have waited several months and broke the bad news a month or so before the expected date, as they usually do.

If the latest delay is due to the a mismash of production problems, then you'd think Elon's perpetual optimism would prevent them giving up on the Q1 5K goal until closer to the deadline.

So I suspect this is caused by something essential to the 5K rate and currently out of their control - such as the order of more equipment that simply won't arrive for a few months.

Because they promised to do so in early Nov. Not doing this will just break another promise.

 

[Zaxxon]

if measured by comparison of other auto manufacturers while NOT including growth

I'm not sure why I keep bothering to reply, but since you quoted me... If/when you finally realize the return quote above is the false crux underlying your entire position, you'll perhaps see the light.

Tesla is not a traditional automaker. They are not even remotely comparable to other automakers who do not own their sales/service channels, much less a chunk of their fuel supply, plus energy generation and storage, etc. You can keep claiming that they should be valued like a traditional automaker, but the market does not see it that way.

Tesla is experiencing another slower-than-promised ramp. News at eleven. The market so far has hit them with a 2% drop for this momentous and surely unexpected news. Perhaps as the month goes on that'll become a 5% or 10% hit. Fine. It's just not a huge deal, and as I told you last week it's something folks seriously following the company expect to see, and that the market likely will continue to take largely in stride.

What matters for Tesla is *that* they ramp, not *when* they ramp. There's still no serious competition on the near-term horizon, either for vehicles at scale, vehicle feature set, or battery production. The Model 3 will be the top-selling EV in short order even with the latest delay in ramp. The Y will come. The semi will come. Tesla Energy will come.

It's just not a huge deal that things are delayed like most of us expected them to be, no matter how much gnashing of teeth you experience.

Would I have preferred 350k 3s this year rather than 200k-250k? Sure. But I can live with tripling vehicle deliveries over 2017, plus any other positives that may come: Y reveal dropping another large interest-free loan on the company, etc.

 

[myusername]

I'm not sure why I keep bothering to reply, but since you quoted me... If/when you finally realize the return quote above is the false crux underlying your entire position, you'll perhaps see the light.

Tesla is not a traditional automaker. They are not even remotely comparable to other automakers who do not own their sales/service channels, much less a chunk of their fuel supply, plus energy generation and storage, etc. You can keep claiming that they should be valued like a traditional automaker, but the market does not see it that way.

Tesla is experiencing another slower-than-promised ramp. News at eleven. The market so far has hit them with a 2% drop for this momentous and surely unexpected news. Perhaps as the month goes on that'll become a 5% or 10% hit. Fine. It's just not a huge deal, and as I told you last week it's something folks seriously following the company expect to see, and that the market likely will continue to take largely in stride.

What matters for Tesla is *that* they ramp, not *when* they ramp. There's still no serious competition on the near-term horizon, either for vehicles at scale, vehicle feature set, or battery production. The Model 3 will be the top-selling EV in short order even with the latest delay in ramp. The Y will come. The semi will come. Tesla Energy will come.

It's just not a huge deal that things are delayed like most of us expected them to be, no matter how much gnashing of teeth you experience.

Would I have preferred 350k 3s this year rather than 200k-250k? Sure. But I can live with tripling vehicle deliveries over 2017, plus any other positives that may come: Y reveal dropping another large interest-free loan on the company, etc.

ok... so they're a swiss army knife of every sector... great... where they going to get the money for factory builds to deliver a semi in 2019?... do you think their PowerWall is going to build a Semi factory?... how about the not-for-profit charging stations?... or will it be the PowerPack?... maybe the Solar Roof?... maybe they'll just ask for some of their customers money up front?

tired of hearing this mythical talk about how I just don't get it... so, enlighten me. how does this actually work... don't tell me about the idea that I just can't seem to grasp.

 

[Zaxxon]

Others have covered those questions numerous times-and better than I would, so I recommend the search function, or actually reading the prior thread of this topic.

 

[2virgule5]

Given the wording in the letter I highly highly doubt the start of the graph is correct. My best guess is the are not really at 1K right now and they will drop a lot in the first 2 weeks of January, then gradually go back up.

That's fair, but at the same time it would not meaningfully affect the total number for Q1. The idea is one of a slower progression which means there are no big regressions.

 

[Starno]

ok... so they're a swiss army knife of every sector... great... where they going to get the money for factory builds to deliver a semi in 2019?... do you think their PowerWall is going to build a Semi factory?... how about the not-for-profit charging stations?... or will it be the PowerPack?... maybe the Solar Roof?... maybe they'll just ask for some of their customers money up front?

tired of hearing this mythical talk about how I just don't get it... so, enlighten me. how does this actually work... don't tell me about the idea that I just can't seem to grasp.

So do you think traditional automakers, who are over 100 years old, will survive forever ?

Did it already happen in the history of humanity ?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm not sure why I keep bothering to reply, but since you quoted me... If/when you finally realize the return quote above is the false crux underlying your entire position, you'll perhaps see the light.

Tesla is not a traditional automaker. They are not even remotely comparable to other automakers who do not own their sales/service channels, much less a chunk of their fuel supply, plus energy generation and storage, etc. You can keep claiming that they should be valued like a traditional automaker, but the market does not see it that way.

Tesla is experiencing another slower-than-promised ramp. News at eleven. The market so far has hit them with a 2% drop for this momentous and surely unexpected news. Perhaps as the month goes on that'll become a 5% or 10% hit. Fine. It's just not a huge deal, and as I told you last week it's something folks seriously following the company expect to see, and that the market likely will continue to take largely in stride.

What matters for Tesla is *that* they ramp, not *when* they ramp. There's still no serious competition on the near-term horizon, either for vehicles at scale, vehicle feature set, or battery production. The Model 3 will be the top-selling EV in short order even with the latest delay in ramp. The Y will come. The semi will come. Tesla Energy will come.

It's just not a huge deal that things are delayed like most of us expected them to be, no matter how much gnashing of teeth you experience.

Would I have preferred 350k 3s this year rather than 200k-250k? Sure. But I can live with tripling vehicle deliveries over 2017, plus any other positives that may come: Y reveal dropping another large interest-free loan on the company, etc.

What gives you confidence that the company will in fact triple deliveries over 2017? That would require 200k+ Model 3’s, and as one commenter above showed, even if Tesla sticks to its revised guidance, it would produce 186k, which means deliveries of 160k or less.

 

[myusername]

What gives you confidence that the company will in fact triple deliveries over 2017? That would require 200k+ Model 3’s and as one commenter above showed, even if Tesla sticks to its revised guidance, it would produce 186k, which means deliveries of 160k or less.

VA's about to go short!

 

[myusername]

So do you think traditional automakers, who are over 100 years old, will survive forever ?

Did it already happen in the history of humanity ?

I don't even know what you're talking about?... tell me how they're going to build a Semi factory for 2019 deliveries?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

VA's about to go short!

I think the stock is still undervalued, but the back-to-back revisions of management guidance for an important product is not ideal, to say the least.

 

[roblab]

So do you think traditional automakers, who are over 100 years old, will survive forever ?

No.

Does 100 years mean anything? If all they are doing is depending on a name to sell cars (It's a FOOORD!) then they are already too old. Young companies innovate. Old companies try to protect themselves from loss. Innovation is risky.

Sure, some people value that an "old" company has been around for 100 years, but just being "old" is no reason for survival, rather replacement.

 

[Zaxxon]

What gives you confidence that the company will in fact triple deliveries over 2017? That would require 200k+ Model 3’s, and as one commenter above showed, even if Tesla sticks to its revised guidance, it would produce 186k, which means deliveries of 160k or less.

That's incorrect, assuming a linear ramp. See my post earlier this afternoon where I ran through the numbers. A linear ramp given the constraints listed in today's update through Q2, and 10k exiting the year comes to 265k Model 3s. I think they'll come in a bit below that, but 110k S/X and 200k 3s still triple 2017 production.

But just to be clear: I'd be happy with 250% of 2017 deliveries, too. I've never been as pie-in-the-sky optimistic as some of you. ~50% YoY increases in a capital-heavy manufacturing business as we had been seeing is impressive. 150%-200% increases? That's awesome.

 

[Zaxxon]

I think the stock is still undervalued, but the back-to-back revisions of management guidance for an important product is not ideal, to say the least.

Ah, yes. I keep forgetting that you're new here.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

That's incorrect, assuming a linear ramp. See my post earlier this afternoon where I ran through the numbers. A linear ramp given the constraints listed in today's update through Q2, and 10k exiting the year comes to 265k Model 3s. I think they'll come in a bit below that, but 110k S/X and 200k 3s still triple 2017 production.

But just to be clear: I'd be happy with 250% of 2017 deliveries, too. I've never been as pie-in-the-sky optimistic as some of you. ~50% YoY increases in a capital-heavy manufacturing business as we had been seeing is impressive. 150%-200% increases? That's awesome.

Thank you for your insight.

 

[SteveG3]

VA's about to go short!

okay, that was funny.

you're real bubbly today m.u.n.

fwiw,

you still sticking with your claim from last month that by 2020 at least one of the large automakers will sell more 200+ mile EVs than Tesla?

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

for that matter, are you sticking by your assertion an hour ago (just upthread) that Tesla will never get to volume production on the Model 3 (10K/week)?