General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Inventory of S/X dropped by ~6k (28,320 delivered, 22,140 built). With an average 85k sales price, a tad over $500 million in additional revenue.

 

[Ovulation]

The only thing I don't like is the slipping of the 5k/week target to end of Q2. Other than that we were spot on.

Well I hope it's an estimation from Deepak or JB and not Elon otherwise ^^

Will be interesting to see if they are able to sell over 1 billion worth of model 3s in Q1, should be doable.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Quoting: "As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2."

So while we have nice results for S and X, Model 3 production has slipped another quarter. Elon's credibility with regard to timelines just took another big hit. I'm embarrassed to say I had believed him this time. My TSLA holdings will be punished tomorrow.

 

[Starno]

I think SP will indeed seriously tank.

The 5k/week has been postponed by 6 months now from October to now..

I'm happy I stayed on the sidelines with fresh cash (core position HODL since 2015).

I don't know it seems like post market the SP is down, but it doesn't go much farther than 310, and gets up to 312...

 

[tander]

I don't know it seems like post market the SP is down, but it doesn't go much farther than 310, and gets up to 312...

Hard to say what after hours means right now with plenty still gone for the holidays. On the one hand 1,000 per week sounds better but pushing 5000 a week out 6 months is a long time. At this point I kind of wish they would just keep goals internally and publicly just say "we want to do a really good job on the model 3, and we'll take as much time as we need to do it and there are still a lot of unknowns and things we want to optimize and work out so we're not giving guidance".

 

[kakamora]

Concerned about Model S and X production in Q12018 given the "reallocation of workforce". hopefully the M3 line is automated enough so the S and X team can be reassigned to their lines.

“We plan to produce about 10% fewer Model S and Model X in Q4 compared to Q3 because of the reallocation of some of the manufacturing workforce towards Model 3 production.”

 

[myusername]

How about you predicting just " handmade dozens of Model 3 by year end " ?

link... prove it. I provide references and data for everything I say... and you guys call it "not important"... well, it is, as you've just seen.

 

[Drumheller]

I think SP will indeed seriously tank.

The 5k/week has been postponed by 6 months now from October to now..

I'm happy I stayed on the sidelines with fresh cash (core position HODL since 2015).

Possibly. But Tesla is still far ahead of any other manufacturer. It's also still ahead of the original timeline. The slips don't matter that much when no one is on your heels.

 

[myusername]

See the part I put in bold? If they did this and too many customers received inadequate products, you and all the other shorts would be bitching that Tesla can't make a quality product. So which is it for you?

SO WHAT... the claims were that they'd produce hi quality at unbelievably high volume... not high quality at low volume... this stock trades like GM and BMW... there is no argument here. it's time for you guys to open your eyes.

 

[neroden]

As usual, this is noise. It would be interesting to know what the actual internal issues are but they're getting much better at not disclosing them. The best leak I've read says that the battery "bandolier" production line is still the largest bottleneck even though it's automated now and working faster than hand assembly. I suppose that shouldn't really be surprising. We may see Musk back at the Gigafactory...

 

[Reciprocity]

Huge gap up tomorrow for sure. Record Model S/X deliveries with a massive reduction in inventory, which shows demand is still very strong. This stock always go the opposite direction you think it will. GLTA.

Edit: Thanks @Mango for pointing out my type-o. Yes I did mean Grand Theft Auto LA.

Edit 2: Type-o 2: @mongo not @Mango cought the original type-o and the new type-o. Did I mention my blood type is Type-O negative. Thats right, universal doner!

 

[powertoold]

What annoys me is the 3 is supposedly much easier to produce, yet why are they running into so many problems? Elon cryptically shows some videos of stamps / machines, then continues to delay the production ramp.

It's really tough to believe much of what Elon says. You have to add +1-2 years to everything he says.

So far this year, we have the Australian battery pack done on time. That's about it.

 

[2virgule5]

I hope we Will actually do this. And that @myusername will admit he was wrong if Tesla hits 4000/week and not hide behind the fact it’s not quite 5000. But also that all the bulls will admit they were wrong if it does turn out to be 2000/week and not hide behind Whatever wishful thinking is then du jour.

And so it is looking like we will have a winner in 3 months, unless if in a radical change of approach TSLA is now downplaying its own numbers in order to more surely achieve/beat team. AH the stock is taking a moderate hit so far but always hard to predict - we may test the floor at 300ish. Now smart people are probably running numbers as to guess if a cap raise will be needed and when. We already know what @myusername thinks about that ;-)

 

[Reciprocity]

What annoys me is the 3 is supposedly much easier to produce, yet why are they running into so many problems? Elon cryptically shows some videos of stamps / machines, then continues to delay the production ramp.

It's really tough to believe much of what Elon says. You have to add +1-2 years to everything he says.

So far this year, we have the Australian battery pack done on time. That's about it.

Much easier to Automate, compared to impossible to automate.

 

[Zaxxon]

I did some quick guesstimation on the Model 3 ramp given the updated parameters (2,645 produced in 2017, 1k/week entering Q1 and ending Q1 at 2,500/week, and 2,500/week entering Q2 ending at 5,000/week) and assuming a fairly linear ramp tilted slightly to EoQ to remain conservative. I then also ran the same guesstimations through the end of the year assuming a similarly linear ramp to 10k/week at the end of December, minus the final week of the year for possible factory closure.

It's in a Google Sheet here for anyone interested.

Short summary:
Since these are effectively Tesla's official guidance at this point and their modus operandi is not to exceed official guidance significantly...
-I expect the Model 3 production by quarter to be around 22k in Q1, 49k in Q2, 83k in Q3, and 107k in Q4.
-I expect total Model 3 produced count by EoY not to exceed 265k.
-I'll hereby stick to my somewhat facetious 1/1/2018 guess posted here and say that we'll see 201,800 Model 3s produced in 2018. And my 'that'd sure be great' hope is that the 265k comes to pass.
-Any hopes folks had of Tesla approaching 500k vehicles produced in 2018 died today. If we assume reasonable growth of S/X ending 2018 at 125k between them, that's 390k total for the company when you add in 265k Model 3s. I think 400k would be extremely optimistic.

And to be clear before I get jumped on, I've thought all along that we'd be in at best the 350k-400k range for 2018 given conversion from Elon Time™ to Gregorian Time. So today's ramp change announcement doesn't surprise or particularly faze me. It's basically what I expected to see. I'm happy that 2017 Model 3 production exceeded 2,600 as I was guessing 2,000-2,500 after the Q3 earnings call. And 101k S/X is great.

Now back to waiting for my configuration invite...

 

[elasalle]

In total, we exceeded our previously announced guidance by delivering 101,312 Model S and X vehicles in 2017. This was a 33% increase over 2016.

Market will digest this soon ...

 

[ACA Man]

Business 101.

Overpromise and underdeliver, then blame on something else.

 

[myusername]

Huge gap up tomorrow for sure. Record Model S/X deliveries with a massive reduction in inventory, which shows demand is still very strong. This stock always go the opposite direction you think it will. GTLA.

like I said over the summer... eventually this will start trading differently because there's no escaping this situation... granted, my claim was that would start happening in Aug/Sept... but it took all this time to get here.

the M3 changes everything. this is what the story was about. there is NO recovery if they do not succeed... and succeeding at this valuation means 5k to 10k per wk in very short timespan to providing funding for all the incredible growth required to expand even more to fit the valuation.

how the hell are they going to raise capital under these conditions?... the SP must fall. it's actually in their interest at this point.

 

[Ovulation]

As usual, this is noise. It would be interesting to know what the actual internal issues are but they're getting much better at not disclosing them. The best leak I've read says that the battery "bandolier" production line is still the largest bottleneck even though it's automated now and working faster than hand assembly. I suppose that shouldn't really be surprising. We may see Musk back at the Gigafactory...

Or Deepak and JB convinced Musk that being conservative from time to time makes sens. The goal must be of course to ramp as fast as possible, it's a difference in billions if you are able to go to 5000 pro week a quarter sooner

 

[SteveG3]

What annoys me is the 3 is supposedly much easier to produce, yet why are they running into so many problems? Elon cryptically shows some videos of stamps / machines, then continues to delay the production ramp.

It's really tough to believe much of what Elon says. You have to add +1-2 years to everything he says.

So far this year, we have the Australian battery pack done on time. That's about it.

They are setting up a production process that will allow them to produce at a rate of 250K/year, vs. the Model S ramp which was designed for 20K/year. What's more, they are doing automation at the GF that has not been done before for pack production... I believe not done before by anyone.