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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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May or may not interest you but here are my principles on Tesla

1. Elon is dead serious about using Tesla to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

2. The software team at Tesla is in the top 5 of any company in the world

3. Tesla doesn’t play in a pre-conceived box. They have the DNA to push in multiple directions at the same time - materials science, computer hardware, chemistry, supply chain, etc.

4. Finance is a means to an end. Specifically the end is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

5. Elon may stick around Tesla longer than required to reach 1 to 4 in order to fund making humans a multi-planetary species.

So what dos this mean to me

A. I expect zero to minimal profit as the investment opportunities to drive #1 are substantially in excess of any cash flow Tesla can generate.

B. Tesla will become an order of magnitude more efficient in making cars than Toyota. The cars they do make will be the best on the planet.

C. Revenue growth will be incredible but lumpy

D. There will be no “low risk”period

E. 1 to 2 years after a Tim Cook like person becomes CEO I will fully exist my investments in the company
 
Found in my email:

upload_2018-2-16_2-17-39.png


Bull spin: Drumming up interest in Tesla batteries and solar due to imminent Gigafactory 1 and 2 ramp ups!

Bear spin: Tesla only has $3.4 Billion in cash, they need more $1,000 deposits before they run out of cash in 6 quarters

Most likely story: Doesn't really mean anything significant. Some employee was told by management to engage the owner community and this is what they came up with to get their boss off their back or something similar.

P.S. Looks like a bunch of locations in the US are having these events. Dates are Feb-23rd-25th.
 
. . . and Mars would be planet #2 destroyed by the fossil fuel industry.

Let me clarify that any shift from Musk to a Tim Cookesque CEO should occur long after Master Plan Deux was completed. Even at that point I would like to see Musk stay on.

Point of my comment was that Tim Cook, while no Steve Jobs, has at a minimum been good for shareholders. I do not care for a lot of what Apple is doing from a pure tech standpoint (Beats?!?), but damn if the guy cannot run a business.
 
Found in my email:

View attachment 280743

Bull spin: Drumming up interest in Tesla batteries and solar due to imminent Gigafactory 1 and 2 ramp ups!

Bear spin: Tesla only has $3.4 Billion in cash, they need more $1,000 deposits before they run out of cash in 6 quarters

Most likely story: Doesn't really mean anything significant. Some employee was told by management to engage the owner community and this is what they came up with to get their boss off their back or something similar.

P.S. Looks like a bunch of locations in the US are having these events. Dates are Feb-23rd-25th.

The model 3 event I went to in Chicago was heavily highlighting solar and battery. I would say it was as big a part of the event for Tesla as the model 3, though everyone was there to see the model 3. Many still spent time talking to solar reps about their options.
 
Point of my comment was that Tim Cook, while no Steve Jobs, has at a minimum been good for shareholders. I do not care for a lot of what Apple is doing from a pure tech standpoint (Beats?!?), but damn if the guy cannot run a business.

He was also chosen by Steve Jobs himself as his successor. What a lot of people don't realise is that Cook's supply chain management was a huge part of what made the iPhone the mass market device it is now.

I'm a long-time AAPL long and very happy with Tim Cook's performance.
 
He was also chosen by Steve Jobs himself as his successor. What a lot of people don't realise is that Cook's supply chain management was a huge part of what made the iPhone the mass market device it is now.

I'm a long-time AAPL long and very happy with Tim Cook's performance.
Tesla has their own factories. Apple conrtacted with Foxconn. I’m by no means an expert but that seems couple of steps easier to produce.

I too was a long time long Apple then shifted nearly all into Tesla few years back.
 
Again, apologies for the source, but the following is a pretty straight forward analysis of why traditional metrics used by analysts just don't work for predicting SP after quarterly reports by management. His critique of traditional approaches mirrors a lot here with some simple math manipulations. What is new to this newbie is his metrics on growth stocks. Way beyond my competence to critique it, but some here....

What Moves Tesla Stock Price? - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
 
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small data point ;)

Just reserved the model 3 !

Why is this exciting ? Because if you had asked me if i would ever buy a new car 2 years ago i would have laught at you, i couldn't even care less about cars. My wife is also excited about getting the car, which is a small miracle by itself. We don't have a driveway or even a clue as how/where we are gonna charge the car but i am sure we can make it work.

Now how is this relevant as a investor ? it gives me like 1000% confidence that demand for the car will be there for a very long time. Imagine all the people that still haven't even heard of it , and then a colleague or neighbor show off the car. I sure there is gonna be a good conversion rate on those unofficial demonstrations.

of course this is nothing all of us didn't already know, but i am just excited to share this news. it is like were getting another baby :p
 
The German Government and BKA plans to call next week thousands of cars back and retire them from the registration of that model. This includes Porsche Macan, Mercedes Vio and the VW V6.

All of them are under suspicion that the NOx emissions are too high or not compliant for several reasons.

That story does not end.....

Furthermore the new German coalition plans to make the automakers doing hardware changes to Diesel cars in order to make them compliant. In order to cope with the costs the auto industry is denying to do that costly investment and it looks like at the end the government will jump in. From Automakers proposed SW updates have been proven to be not efficient.

What a disaster for taxpayers. Its a shame!
 
His valuation estimate is predicated on an continuing revenue growth for Tesla Energy Generation and Storage of 100%/year for the intermediate future with a 25% Gross Margin.

He previously estimated 1 million solar roofs a year
" When fully scaled, Gigafactory 2 will be able to produce enough solar cells to add more than 150,000 new residential solar installations every year."
 
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