General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Starno]

600+ might be ATH for this year IMO. But I don't think it will be sticky.

If we reach 5000+ M3 production rate before September and macro is in good shape, I can see a sticky 500+ (new 300) this year.

 

[gigglehertz]

Well here's his tweet from yesterday:
View attachment 280662
007 on Twitter

I don't think the stock will do anything on Monday, since it is President's day and the stock market (in the US) will be closed. </sarcasm>

I can't figure out how to vote on Elon's compensation package, probably because I have the world's worst broker - Capital One Investing. Luckily they are unloading all of us retail investors to eTrade at some point later this year.

 

[Bobfitz1]

You should call Tesla and make sure your previous ownership is being recognized for the 3 reservation.

Yes. My account from purchasing Roadster specified a email account I used back then. While the M3 reservation knew of my current email address. They had to consolidate manually before my ownership was considered in the mix.

 

[JRP3]

So if you sold based on him being a contrarian indicator you missed out on the $11.75 move up today.

No you didn't if you looked at his postings in totality. Attempting to paint him as anything other than a bloviating hyper bear is completely irresponsible. People listening to him have admitted to losing large amounts of money on TSLA.

 

[1101011]

...Tesla without Elon is not Tesla.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I saw people ragging on TT007 in the Market Action thread. Some even said he's a contrarian indicator. Yes, he has had some bad timed enthusiastic posts. I even cautioned him before earnings that when I get as enthusiastic as he was before earnings that it doesn't end well.

Well here's his tweet from yesterday:
View attachment 280662
007 on Twitter

So if you sold based on him being a contrarian indicator you missed out on the $11.75 move up today. With that said we probably aren't going over $600 by September by 2018. He should probably tone down words like "likely" to "possibly" but other than that I think people are giving him too much flak.

A lot of people probably don't know or remember his background/trading style. Don't forget he was buying big sub $200 in 2016 so he's already made a ton of money. He is also mostly stock and needs a huge drop to get a margin call so making short term predictions that are wrong doesn't hurt him so don't use his tweets for short term trading. Eventually he will be right and we will go over $400. Whether we go over $400 next month or next year he and everyone long stock will do well. Most of the people upset at him are doing short term options. Reminds me of people upset at Elon for not meeting deadlines and losing money on options. I had a bad trading year last year because of the double push back of the 5K/week goal that killed my calls and call spreads but I don't blame TT007 or Elon for my losses. It was my own hubris for thinking I was outsmarting the market.

Remember, options should be priced by the market so that over time the sellers of the options make money. This has to be true or call sellers would never sell them because they are taking a LOT more risk than the buyer. No one in their right mind takes more risk for less reward over the long term. For call buyers to repeatedly make money buying calls means the market is consistently not pricing them right or the buyer has remarkable timing for when to get in and out before time decay works in the seller's favor. Before you ever buy calls or puts ask yourself this first: "why do I think I have an edge over the seller here; why is the seller willing to sell this option to me at this price?"

I think there is an analogy between TSLA and Tesla performance, which at present time is all about M3 ramp. The ramp will always be late, but when it comes it will be bigger than most people expect. Something similar will happen to the PPS. If/when the success of M3 ramp restores market's faith in Tesla's growth (when they see positive cash flow and profitability in Q3 or Q4 '18), then we can potentially see a return of P/S ratio to 5. In that case I think $20B 2018 revenue will also be safely in the bag. Combine the 2 this will move us to ~$600 PPS, and this current $300-$400 fluctuation will look like a mere ripple in a tsunami.

 

[Reciprocity]

However critical I have been - and may be in the future - of product rollout execution / timing, Musk's vision is worth the price of admission; I voted all my shares (in active trading, IRA, and ROTH) FOR the proxy vote.

Tesla without Elon is not Tesla.

I trust Elon more then any government to do good things with that money. Be it Mars, tunnels or ai or neural lace. Look what he did with PayPal money. Almost lost it all twice pushing the limits.

 

[MP3Mike]

I can't figure out how to vote on Elon's compensation package, probably because I have the world's worst broker - Capital One Investing. Luckily they are unloading all of us retail investors to eTrade at some point later this year.

It seems pretty easy to me: click on Overview, Message Center, and then Shareholder Notices. At that point you should have a list of notices you can read/respond to. Click on the vote link and vote... (If you haven't signed up for paperless notices they will mail you a ballot as well.)

 

[Intl Professor]

Because of a heavy backload of e=mail, I was tardy in getting notice of the compensation vote. Voted with Tesla management's recommendation, a first for me too because I also don't vote that way with other companies.

 

[JRP3]

Normally I wouldn't post a typically information free Petersen article in the General thread but this one is worth looking at because he has some data from an industry "analyst". Of course Petersen didn't like the analysts conclusions so he had him rework the numbers using Petersen's figures In any case if this is the "worst" the bears can come up with I'd say they failed to make their case:
Expert Opinion: Cathode Powders For Tesla's Batteries Would Cost $50 Per KWh At Spot Metal Prices - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[renim]

Normally I wouldn't post a typically information free Petersen article in the General thread ......

but you did.

Having said that, I like Dr. Menahem Anderman's work, its not representative of Tesla's situation, but is representative of what a competitor would need to do to emulate Tesla. Subtle difference that many (like Insideevs) can't seem to grasp the importance of.

 

[elasalle]

Ok what first principles approach allows a guy who recently purchases a S/X to get their M3 ahead of non owners who stood in line on day one?
This is pissing me off ... EM hear me do something

 

[renim]

Ok what first principles approach allows a guy who recently purchases a S/X to get their M3 ahead of non owners who stood in line on day one?
This is pissing me off ... EM hear me do something

simple, tolerance and profitability

same first principle approach that Nvidia and Intel use in selling their chips.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Ok what first principles approach allows a guy who recently purchases a S/X to get their M3 ahead of non owners who stood in line on day one?
This is pissing me off ... EM hear me do something

You were asked to pick up dinner and took you half hour round trip. By the time you got home the extended in-law family already lined up to eat and asked you go behind the line since you left the house. Like a good in-law they saved you crumbs.

 

[elasalle]

simple, tolerance and profitability

same first principle approach that Nvidia and Intel use in selling their chips.

I will pay the same amount of money for the available model
I am sure Tesla naysayers have already got hold of an M3 - if there were issues they would already be front page news - most of 1st day line folks are Tesla fans

So give me a better reason than that

 

[SteveG3]

Ok what first principles approach allows a guy who recently purchases a S/X to get their M3 ahead of non owners who stood in line on day one?
This is pissing me off ...

I very much get your feelings.

If the question was not rhetorical, I'd say,

- There have been a number of comments over the past year or so where Tesla has let down their guard more than a little, and acknowledged that there was real internal concern about the potential for TM3 to cannibalize S/X... this policy helped, and continues to help S/X sales,

- On many occasions, Elon has expressed his appreciation to Roadster purchasers who made the S/X possible and S/X purchasers who made TM3 possible. I don't think this is simply platitudes, I suspect it hits Elon in a deep place that Tesla would not be around today without people taking a risk on the earlier cars.

That's what I think is behind it, but, as I said I do get how you feel... and, fwiw, from what I know, I'd like to see Tesla make a shift in policy from here forward to giving day 1 line waiters priority equal to those who bought S/X after the reveal (well, actually, that particular approach would lead to another group of people saying Tesla/Elon lied to them etc., lols, but, I would like to see some change in policy that starts the inclusion of day 1 line waiters among those with current configuring status ASAP).

 

[elasalle]

I very much get your feelings.

If the question was not rhetorical, I'd say,

- There have been a number of comments over the past year or so where Tesla has let down their guard more than a little, and acknowledged that there was real internal concern about the potential for TM3 to cannibalize S/X... this policy helped, and continues to help S/X sales,

- On many occasions, Elon has expressed his appreciation to Roadster purchasers who made the S/X possible and S/X purchasers who made TM3 possible. I don't think this is simply platitudes, I suspect it hits Elon in a deep place that Tesla would not be around today without people taking a risk on the earlier cars.

That's what I think is behind it, but, as I said I do get how you feel... and, fwiw, from what I know, I'd like to see Tesla make a shift in policy from here forward to giving day 1 line waiters priority equal to those who bought S/X after the reveal.

All support for S/X owners being ahead if the had the car for a while - but new owners getting ahead - com’on they can do better than that

 

[sundaymorning]

Attention M3 reservation holders who are thinking about cancelling, the decision you make can potentially save or end your life in a serious accident. Choose wisely.

Tesla Model 3 owner shares insight on vehicle safety after 60 mph crash

 

[SteveG3]

All support for S/X owners being ahead if the had the car for a while - but new owners getting ahead - com’on they can do better than that

agree, and I suggested that the policy be revised for line waiters to be moved up from current status to respond to this. I encourage you to offer your feedback to Tesla... it seems like a better way of handling this. if they want to smooth things over with recent S/X buyers who might complain, they could make this the "secret" extra gift... something like, ~day 1 line waiters in our view are given honorary 2017 ownership status~.

 

[elasalle]

Attention M3 reservation holders who are thinking about cancelling, the decision you make can potentially save or end your life in a serious accident. Choose wisely.

Tesla Model 3 owner shares insight on vehicle safety after 60 mph crash

That’s why non owners need theirs on time as well - don’t want to get into an accident before getting the M3
Tesla needs to give preference to all asses not just rich asses

(Last post on this topic)