Reciprocity
Active Member
LoL. What do you think people are reserving? 400,000 x $50k ASP = $20B
Edit: Mongo is quicker on the draw.
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LoL. What do you think people are reserving? 400,000 x $50k ASP = $20B
Edit: Mongo is quicker on the draw.
DurandalAI
Member
Thank you for this. This is a well tempered bullish prediction with numbers and appears well thought out. (I also like it because it aligns with what I’ve had in mind lately.) good job.
Post was a general, "let's make sure we are all talking about the same thing". Not directed at you, or anyone else specifically.
Individual cell/ station cycle timing tests are done first. Test cell 1, Test cell 1 faster, fix cell 1, test cell 1 faster. Repeat down the line (in parallel if upstream quality is sufficient). Once the line is up, they can focus on the slowest spot with the benefit of a continuous supply of the assemblies from the previous step. So before the burst run of the entire line happens, they already have confidence it can perform at that rate. This can be seen in the update letter where they mention some sections are faster than others.
Welds/ paint/ adhesives are the items that are directly affected by time. Most of the rest of things are material movement/ fastening which are limited by the path taken and physics. Human performed operations will be the most variable that improve with practice.
tl;dr; Lots of testing on small sections and their interaction with neighbors, then full line test which (from station point of view) looks the same but tests the larger factory support system (material movement and such).
I meant reservations representing $20B in sales. $16B would probably be more accurate using the $42.5K ASP estimate and 373,000 reservations as of May 2016. Tesla has 373,000 Model 3 reservations as of May 15, after 8k cancellations and 4k duplicates
Edit: @mongo and @Reciprocity beat me to it ....
Why is cash flow from financing '0' ? If most of people use loans to lease or purchase? and Tesla is providing the loans by itself or partners? Is this negligible interest or can this add up to Millions? (just curious, non-finance guy here)
note. if rates are comparable, i plan to give my business to Tesla
dc_h
Active Member
As the ramp progresses the statistical sampling should get better. Last week looked good, but we have a small number problem. A lot of cars, relatively, but a small number of days. Was that a batch push and then stop, or was this part of a steady ramp. If we see VIN 13xx this week, we start seeing a more solid sample size, more days and more cars. I have not done any formal statistics on the data gathered, but I would guess we have a large sampling error and a high chance of error.
The combination of data sources also helps. Registering VIN’s is a leading indicator, but meaningless without corresponding VIN assignments, which are not as valuable as recorded deliveries. They have registered 2000 this week, 1387 and 1088 the prior two weeks after mostly dry February. We are also seeing reports of VIN’s assigned to users in increasing numbers since the first week of March and more last week. Currently we only have about 2 weeks of VIN assignments reflecting a ramp. That could be a post plant update from Feb 20-24 batch bump. I think this is a real trend, but we do need two more weeks to prove that they didn’t just have a batch of batteries built up while Fremont was down and can really sustain this pace. If they are on track, and they maintain this weeks 2000 registration and VIN assignment rate through next week, I think the stock will start to outperform macros. I personally think they finally got it, but statistically I don’t think there is enough data to really know. I hope they can keep it up and get deliveries to at least 10k for the quarter and exit over 2000 a week. Over 2k per week and signaling they are on track to track toward 5k in Q2, I think we’ll finally be able to break out and they can finally start talking about plans for Semi and Y production.
There will be some cash raised from financing but nothing I think of significance.I do not expect Tesla will need to raise capital going forward. Also I am assuming Tesla will stop Solar Panel Leasing from Q2 2018 onward with pick up in Solar roof. More than 50 % Solar panel revenue is coming from direct sales already.
Tesla said they expected the lines to arrive in March and ramp up in Q2 so it seems unlikely that they’re up and running already. Also, the recent ramp up seemed to begin after the Feb 20-24 shutdown so I assume it is with the existing battery production. Can’t be 100% sure that there is no contribution from the new line but I doubt it. Maybe they’ll add a short comment about status of the Grohmann battery line to the delivery update.
FWIW I don’t think installation of the Grohmann line means an instant leap to ~4K/week since the line apparently still needs to get ramped up and there are very likely other bottlenecks that will be identified and need to get worked out as production increases.
Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018.
Tesla - Current Report
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ValueAnalyst
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Yes, thank you for pointing that out. There may also be additional bottlenecks in Fremont as @Reciprocity pointed out.
I am hopeful that the ramp in Grohmann lines may be relatively smoother than the production hell of the last three quarters, as these lines were already "working" in Germany, and given potential bottlenecks in Fremont, I wonder if Tesla Energy may grow quicker than currently expected throughout 2018.
bdy0627
Active Member
I have found TSLA often moves somewhat independent of the general market. It certainly follows it at times but there are many days where it moves in the opposite direction of the market. Certainly when the market goes into correction mode, TSLA would be expected to follow in dramatic fashion.
So what kind of paperwork American car manufacturers don't know how to fill? I haven't seen them detailed in any documents at all. I would like to see them to learn about it. There's zero visibility within Japan that American companies having a hard time to adapt to Japanese regulations.
Ford has the Ka+ minicar and Ford Fiesta Subcompact. Right Hand Drive. In Europe the Fiesta has averaged 300k sales per year the last 5 years. Ford Ka+ sold 52k last year,mostly in the UK, and is on pace for over 60k units this year.
What is the point of spending money on advertising if you can't get your small cars into the country in a timely fashion at scale?
No non Japanese company has 4% plus market share in Japan like Toyota, Nissan, Honda, and Subaru have in the US.
Not VW,MB,BMW, Hyundai,GM,Ford, and not FCA. Not anyone. All just incompetent and don't know how to fill out the right paperwork or too stupid to run TV and Print commercials.
The Japanese government wants to piss on American car companies and tell them it is raining. Only someone with an IQ below 85 believes that.
BTW
日本フォードの自動車ガイド｜中古車ならグーネット
Ka was not introduced in Japanese market. Also the engine is too big for Kei car spec (up to 0.66 liter) so people would compare it to Kei cars and will avoid because tax is almost 8 times higher with over 1 liter engine. Fiesta was introduced but it was bigger size and in Japan it was classified as midsize (note: people compare to Kei cars). Thus it had higher annual registration tax. It's also wider than typical mechanical parking lot, so people can't park there.
I would recommend US automakers to show bad country specific, bureaucratic processes in public. Actually I believe US manufacturers including Tesla doesn't consider Japanese market requirements, especially size. That's OK, I believe that's their choice. To sell more cars in Japan, make it narrower. More than 50% of rich people with Merc S, BMW 7, Audi A8 or Maserati or whatever living in Tokyo can't park Model X in their condo.
Sorry for off topic. I'll end this here but I still would like to see the facts so please PM me if you are willing to spend a bit of time to teach me.
In coming months Tesla bear argument will move from can they produce Model 3 to can they produce with the gross margin when that will be also answered by Q4 2018 will move to valuation argument where Bears will pick Q4 GAAP Profit of 300 million and extrapolate to be 1.2 billion yearly profit and say how can one justify 70 billion valuation.
Here are my future Tesla predictions
2019
Revenue : 45 billion (Model S/X 125k , Model 3 : 475K , Solar roof : 100K installations)
Non GAAP Proft : 4 billion (9%)
2020
Revenue : 70 billion (Model S/X 125k , Model 3 : 500K , Model Y 300K Semi : 5K/10K Roadster : 2000 Solar roof : 150K installations)
Non GAAP Proft : 9 billion (12.5%)
2022
Revenue : 125 billion (Model S/X 125k , Model 3 : 700K , Model Y 900K Semi : 50K Roadster : 10000 Solar roof : 250K installations)
Non GAAP Proft : 19 billion (15%)
Non GAAP Profit will continue to climb because of following reasons
R&D and sales/admin expense not going in proportion to Sales increase
Reduced cost of battery due to improved manufacturing, economies of scale and automation
Autonomous driving adding to margin (with 90% margin and 10k (6+4) price for activation if 1 million customers purchase Autonomous driving this alone will add to revenue of 10 billion with 9 billion of profit. Plus Tesla may start to charge this per mile opening up opportunity to earn though out life cycle of vehicle. )
Less capex for further expansion of production as indicated by
Supercharger n/w revenue helping cutting current losses (Tesla is charging it for model 3 , I expect Tesla to do this for S/X in near future )
So in 2022 with 20X of non GAAP Profit I expect Tesla valuation to be around 400 billion.
Just turning my imagination wild
By 2028 Tesla revenue to be 300 billion (225 billion Automotive + 50 billion Energy + 25 billion Tesla Ride sharing. 5 million cars S/X/3/Y/Semi/Pickup/Roadster/couple more products )
By 2033 Tesla revenue to be 500 billion (300 billion Automotive + 100 billion Energy + 100 billion Tesla Ride sharing. 7 million cars S/X/3/Y/Semi/Pickup/Roadster/couple more products , 1 million solar roofs )
In 2033 Non GAAP Profit will be 125 billion Ride sharing contributing more than 50% of it and huge upside potential further in mobility given the current Transportation market is 10 trillion dollars currently and in 15 years market will be even bigger. Further Tesla may enter other transportation areas boats, planes. There is possibility of Boaring company to be merged with Tesla just like solar city and adding more revenue opportunity.
Tesla will be biggest multi bagger of 21st century.
Here are my future Tesla predictions
2019
Revenue : 45 billion (Model S/X 125k , Model 3 : 475K , Solar roof : 100K installations)
Non GAAP Proft : 4 billion (9%)
2020
Revenue : 70 billion (Model S/X 125k , Model 3 : 500K , Model Y 300K Semi : 5K/10K Roadster : 2000 Solar roof : 150K installations)
Non GAAP Proft : 9 billion (12.5%)
2022
Revenue : 125 billion (Model S/X 125k , Model 3 : 700K , Model Y 900K Semi : 50K Roadster : 10000 Solar roof : 250K installations)
Non GAAP Proft : 19 billion (15%)
Non GAAP Profit will continue to climb because of following reasons
R&D and sales/admin expense not going in proportion to Sales increase
Reduced cost of battery due to improved manufacturing, economies of scale and automation
Autonomous driving adding to margin (with 90% margin and 10k (6+4) price for activation if 1 million customers purchase Autonomous driving this alone will add to revenue of 10 billion with 9 billion of profit. Plus Tesla may start to charge this per mile opening up opportunity to earn though out life cycle of vehicle. )
Less capex for further expansion of production as indicated by
Supercharger n/w revenue helping cutting current losses (Tesla is charging it for model 3 , I expect Tesla to do this for S/X in near future )
So in 2022 with 20X of non GAAP Profit I expect Tesla valuation to be around 400 billion.
Just turning my imagination wild
By 2028 Tesla revenue to be 300 billion (225 billion Automotive + 50 billion Energy + 25 billion Tesla Ride sharing. 5 million cars S/X/3/Y/Semi/Pickup/Roadster/couple more products )
By 2033 Tesla revenue to be 500 billion (300 billion Automotive + 100 billion Energy + 100 billion Tesla Ride sharing. 7 million cars S/X/3/Y/Semi/Pickup/Roadster/couple more products , 1 million solar roofs )
In 2033 Non GAAP Profit will be 125 billion Ride sharing contributing more than 50% of it and huge upside potential further in mobility given the current Transportation market is 10 trillion dollars currently and in 15 years market will be even bigger. Further Tesla may enter other transportation areas boats, planes. There is possibility of Boaring company to be merged with Tesla just like solar city and adding more revenue opportunity.
Tesla will be biggest multi bagger of 21st century.
Reciprocity
Active Member
My only concern is that they specifically mentioned the conveyance system. Which is completely new or at least the giant towers at either end of the factory are new. One one hand, Its good that they seem to be using a system that is a known commodity, but this is Tesla and they tend to like to take things that exist and turn them up to 11 to meet their ambitious goals. Some things break when you turn them up to 11. I wouldnt be worried at all about if they had not mentioned it on the call as a specific bottleneck on the same level as the pack assembly machines. In a away, it was a worse problem because they have a working solution for the pack assembly that was coming.
New debt. Also, hopefully cash flow from Model 3 ramp, Solar roof & power wall/pack ramp and Tesla truck/roadster deposits.
Waiting for some of these ramps is like waiting for Godot
Also, Bjorn uses AP2 to navigate a roundabout LOL .. 10 mins into this video
bdy0627
Active Member
Because that's typically what TSLA does at the bottom of a dip.
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