General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dc_h]

Weren’t those large storage facilities built to buffer supplies since it’s impossible to ramp up and down supply chain fast enough to respond to the 3 debottle necking/ s curve.

I think to store stamped parts. They may stamp one part for a week, change press and then stamp another part. They may need a month of stamped parts, or They would have to add more stamping presses, which are very expensive.

 

[kbM3]

How do you explain why Tesla registered 7,700+ VINs in seven days?

How about this? VIN registrations are a leading indicator. When production is only 700/week you need less VIN headroom than when production is 2k/week.

Now, going from 1K to 2K last quarter (roughly 90 days means a throughput increase of 1K/90 = 11 cars/day

~ Cheers!!

11 cars / day^2.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

How about this? VIN registrations are a leading indicator. When production is only 700/week you need less VIN headroom than when production is 2k/week.

That’s a good point. When production was around 700/week, the 2000 gap between VINs registered and VINs assigned was 3 weeks worth. Now, at 2000/week production, 3 weeks would be 6000 between highest VIN registered and highest VIN assigned. If they’re aiming for 3000/week production in short order, the current 10k gap would make sense.

It’s important to think in terms of rates and percentages rather than absolute numbers.

 

[tander]

Neither. The person who bought the shares from the shorter can't tell that they were borrowed and sold short. They get to vote and get any dividend (not relevant for Tesla, yet).

I'm not quite sure what you are saying? I'm talking about if you lend your shares to your broker, who in turn lends the shares for shorting, does the broker or the shorter get to vote the shares? In the agreements I've seen the original owner/loaner cannot vote shares while lending them, but they do still receive any dividends.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm not quite sure what you are saying? I'm talking about if you lend your shares to your broker, who in turn lends the shares for shorting, does the broker or the shorter get to vote the shares? In the agreements I've seen the original owner/loaner cannot vote shares while lending them, but they do still receive any dividends.

If the short sold the shares, whoever bought them gets to vote those shares. This is what ggr meant.

If the short hasn't sold them, then the short gets to vote those I guess. I'm not sure if this scenario is even valid, since I assume short sale transaction would go through as soon as shorts can borrow those shares.

 

[Waiting4M3]

The real competition (US March sales)

Bark M. Sméagol on Twitter

 

[30seconds]

Watching this, I had a eureka moment.
Elon is a hero representing a class of people that wasn't well represented in popular culture. Which explains why he is able to command so much investor's money and have such a loyal following in its products. The geeks and nerds in the society represent a large majority of the population and command a very high salary base. Most have a childhood that they can probably relate to with Musk. Up until now, there weren't anything for this segment of the population to cheer on. Steve Jobs was one, but he was more of a marketer than the real representation of Geeks.

Strange how I never noticed this as I've only been looking at Elon from the investment point of view and only judge him on how trustworthy his words are at any given moment. The loyal following and popularity part always puzzled me.

This changes the situation a bit for me on Tesla. It is becoming something that is akin to what the population demands. Like Marijuana. When a population demands something, even if you have a war on drugs, it will eventually be legalized and taxed. It is a pretty fundamental change that has to be considered when investing in Tesla.

I think you are missing the point about the geeks and nerds recognizing major technical advances from Tesla, which is their domain, not that of GM or VW.

 

[bambam4171]

How do you explain why Tesla registered 7,700+ VINs in seven days?

If you look back you will see that they did similar things in the past. Maybe there is a good explanation but pushing hopes too high is not helping TSLA at all. It raises hopes too high which then will be crushed which then lead to Shorts having a field day. Why not stick to Elon's explanation? We know Elon is always optimistic. Why do you insist he is not in this case?

 

[bambam4171]

Yes but also : the CEOs of those " mainstream media " are basically playing golf and having dinner with the CEOs (and top executives) of GM, Ford, VW, Exxon, .... so if the boss is basically good friend with someone whom Tesla is threatening. What do you think the employees(journalists) are incentivized to do ?

The reason why they jump on everything Tesla is because people are much more interested in Tesla than in Ford or GM or Toyota. So whatever news from Tesla is getting more reads than articles from the established crew. They know that, in the online age they know exactly how long the average reader spends on a given article. And of course they write about whatever their readers want to read, because that makes them stay longer on the site, see more ads.....

 

[NicoV]

The real competition (US March sales)

Bark M. Sméagol on Twitter

View attachment 292790

Interesting. So that means in April Model 3 will be the top seller in it’s category by a wide margin. That means the ramp in terms of market share is much faster than Model S or X.

Edit: It will be interesting to see this graph when Model 3 is at 5000 or 10000/week, and how the media spins it.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If you look back you will see that they did similar things in the past. Maybe there is a good explanation but pushing hopes too high is not helping TSLA at all. It raises hopes too high which then will be crushed which then lead to Shorts having a field day. Why not stick to Elon's explanation? We know Elon is always optimistic. Why do you insist he is not in this case?

Please do not put words in my mouth. I’m simply asking those who blindly write off 5k/w by end-May as impossible to explain the contradictory data point, which was all too closely watched until very recently.

 

[bambam4171]

Which datapoint? The VIN registration one? As said, they have done that before, so no valid data point if not followed up with VIN signtings/announcements of buyers.

 

[Reciprocity]

The real competition (US March sales)

Bark M. Sméagol on Twitter

View attachment 292790

Everyone should follow this guy so that he will have more followers then the real mark BS. It won't take many people because my cat has more followers then the real mark BS even though he buys followers on Twitter.

 

[JRP3]

I'm seeing headlines about a recall in China, I assume it's just part of the steering recall, but articles are vague, purposely I'm sure.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Everyone should follow this guy so that he will have more followers then the real mark BS. It won't take many people because my cat has more followers then the real mark BS even though he buys followers on Twitter.

Done!

 

[Reciprocity]

If you look back you will see that they did similar things in the past. Maybe there is a good explanation but pushing hopes too high is not helping TSLA at all. It raises hopes too high which then will be crushed which then lead to Shorts having a field day. Why not stick to Elon's explanation? We know Elon is always optimistic. Why do you insist he is not in this case?

This is different. At the end of 2017 they had one big batch. The last month or so, they have registered an ever accelerating number and a total that would equate to about 3000/w even if you throw out the last one and just use the date as the end of the month. Now, it could still be fluff. But then you have to ask why? The last two weeks Tesla told us what they made, ~2020/w. That takes us up to just a few days ago. Why do they need 3000/w for the prior month if they just got 2000/w from roughly 1500/w on March 23rd per the Field memo leak? It makes no sense unless they are planning another decent sized step change in Production and they needed the VINs early to assign them to parts being made in advance, say the dash board. I don't know a lot about auto manufacturing, but I don't see why they would over register VINS just to deceive investors. This could be a problematic thing to do with the sec already watching what Tesla says about the ramp, especially if they intend to raise more capital.

VIN registrations are not there only sign. VIN assignments are up as well as well as invites. With dual motor, P models with air suspensions found testing at a track. It makes me not believe Elon when he says July for dual motor. But that could still be right, because the P model might come first.... Nah. Im just dreaming.

 

[mongo]

Please do not put words in my mouth. I’m simply asking those who blindly write off 5k/w by end-May as impossible to explain the contradictory data point, which was all too closely watched until very recently.

@bambam4171

At this point, we have no data to support NOT hitting 5k end-May (nor could we short of an e-quake). We also have data that would fit into the ramp speed up senario which has yet to be corroborated by delivery reports. However, a high rate of VIN registrations does not require any other condition to be true.

It's an if, not an iff (if and only if) as my logic teacher would say. Example: if I win the lottery (Tesla builds 5k cars per a week) then I am rich (Tesla registers 5k VINs per a week). I am rich. Did I win the lottery?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Everyone should follow this guy so that he will have more followers then the real mark BS. It won't take many people because my cat has more followers then the real mark BS even though he buys followers on Twitter.

Agreed. Bark puts sense into the TSLAQ crowd. Here's the Twitter account: Bark M. Sméagol (@BarkMSmeagol) | Twitter

Other good ones to follow for Tesla investors:

Siddharth Dalal (@siddfinance) | Twitter
Bonnie Norman (@bonnienorman) | Twitter
Andrea James (@AndreaSJames) | Twitter
vincent (@vincent13031925) | Twitter
The Tesla Show (@TheTeslaShow) | Twitter
pjhornak (@PJHORNAK) | Twitter
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) | Twitter
Trent Eady (@trentaeady) | Twitter
HyperChange TV (@HyperChangeTV) | Twitter
Steve Bareman (@SteveBareman) | Twitter
Can Haz Model 3! (@Everman) | Twitter
Bob Gotchall (@bgotchall) | Twitter
Jonathan Hewitt (@owlmaster08) | Twitter
EvInvestor (@Ev_Investor) | Twitter
Diego (@SnoozeThroughF1) | Twitter
Jeff Evanson (@JeffEvanson1) | Twitter

I'm probably forgetting a few, but all of the above individuals share and retweet only high-quality and mostly Tesla related content, which provides TSLA investors with the tools to fight directed, purposeful misinformation campaign that is clearly financed by the powers that be. Twitter allows Tesla supporters to fight the misinformation campaign with higher efficiency and effectiveness.

 

[Reciprocity]

I'm seeing headlines about a recall in China, I assume it's just part of the steering recall, but articles are vague, purposely I'm sure.

Yes, I believe so.

 

[bambam4171]

@bambam4171

At this point, we have no data to support NOT hitting 5k end-May (nor could we short of an e-quake). We also have data that would fit into the ramp speed up senario which has yet to be corroborated by delivery reports. However, a high rate of VIN registrations does not require any other condition to be true.

It's an if, not an iff (if and only if) as my logic teacher would say. Example: if I win the lottery (Tesla builds 5k cars per a week) then I am rich (Tesla registers 5k VINs per a week). I am rich. Did I win the lottery?

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr

Of course we don't have data to support that hitting 5k by end-May is impossible. Based on past experience I just would not count on it