General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

Thoughts on 3k/wk. at Bloomberg tracker. I think what they're seeing may be a step response of a step function at Tesla. One simplistic explanation, if you turn on a voltage supply by throwing switch, you can visualize the voltage at the source instantly stepped up from 0 to 1, but the voltage step has to travel through a long transmission wire to reach its destination, and what you see at the output is not a sharp step, but rather an damped/oscillating curve. You can get different behaviors depend on how the step is "damped" during transmission (below graph). If it's under-damped, such as the deep blue curve in the graph, you can see a false peak, and it is delayed from the actual step.

I suspect this mechanism is mainly what's causing Bloomberg to show 3k/wk. Their modeling and data gathering may mimic some mathematical properties of physical transmission line. What got me thinking this way about Bloomberg is that their weekly # seems to be behind for a while, but their overall total stays more or less accurate, this means that during the week that they "catch up", they have to overshoot in that week to make up the deficit in earlier weeks to make the total # work out. Another way to think of this is that there is a feedback loop in the weekly # from previous week to current week. A feedback loop, in circuit analysis, often gives you a low-pass filter which can create the damped oscillation described above.

 

[kbM3]

The interesting part is that in the Video when they went into the meeting room where he sleeps there is a white board where its written that a production line rate of 425 units has been achieved. Maybe a burst rate for just one day

Extrapolating to a week that would make it 3045 cars.

Pretty consistent with the Bloomberg tracker.

Two independent data points in the same range make me feel confident that 3k is in reach.

https://i.redd.it/ovo8sd7eo0s01.jpg

Putting my Bull cap on: With 2k S+X and 3k 3 (bust rate) they are at 5k/w or 250,000 cars annualized these days. Thats a 150% increased versus 2017 after just 4 months.

That number, the 435/day may very well have been triggering the higher than usual VIN registration # we have seen as automated system have be alerted and did their duty. Would expect that we have been falling lower in the meantime though.

Someone on Electrek or Reddit said that board was for SX only.

@Reciprocity
It was Tom Mueller, Chief Propulsion Technology Officer at SpaceX.
Tesla is going to ‘kill’ the auto industry with Elon Musk’s way of thinking about manufacturing, says SpaceX CTO

They go back a long way. That marginal cost may have applied to the 40 kWh Model S,

 

[hobbes]

Wow! They got rid of the automated warehouses. Reminds me of the Denver airport baggage handling conveyor system fiasco.

Says who? Tell me your source. I bet against that. The only thing Elon mentioned in the CBS interviews was a "crazy complex set of conveyor belts". Nothing about automated ware houses.

IMHO what has possibly changed is the transportation of the parts from the warehouses into the assembly line.

 

[AZRI11]

Says who? Tell me your source. I bet against that. The only thing Elon mentioned in the CBS interviews was a "crazy complex set of conveyor belts". Nothing about automated ware houses.

IMHO what has possibly changed is the transportation of the parts from the warehouses into the assembly line.

You could be right. Elon needs to elaborate at the quarterly.

 

[hobbes]

On that board there is S and X production specified, as well as "vehicles", which I take to mean "total of all models". It is possible (and I would even say likely as that´s the number that is intersting now also to Elon) that this line is now used for Model 3, but we can´t be sure about that.

The interesting part is that in the Video when they went into the meeting room where he sleeps there is a white board where its written that a production line rate of 425 units has been achieved. Maybe a burst rate for just one day

Extrapolating to a week that would make it 3045 cars.

Pretty consistent with the Bloomberg tracker.

Two independent data points in the same range make me feel confident that 3k is in reach.

https://i.redd.it/ovo8sd7eo0s01.jpg

Putting my Bull cap on: With 2k S+X and 3k 3 (bust rate) they are at 5k/w or 250,000 cars annualized these days. Thats a 150% increased versus 2017 after just 4 months.

That number, the 435/day may very well have been triggering the higher than usual VIN registration # we have seen as automated system have be alerted and did their duty. Would expect that we have been falling lower in the meantime though.

 

[EinSV]

VIN 203xx reported:

Official Model 3 VIN Tracker ...Please post last 4 or 5 of your VIN HIGHEST: 203xx @tenka! | Page 25 | Tesla

 

[brian45011]

Says who? Tell me your source. I bet against that. The only thing Elon mentioned in the CBS interviews was a "crazy complex set of conveyor belts". Nothing about automated ware houses.

IMHO what has possibly changed is the transportation of the parts from the warehouses into the assembly line.

Peter Hochholdinger was a proponent of automating "manufacturing logistics." Here's how the Tesla Model 3 could change the auto industry forever

If he was instrumental in a "crazy complex set of conveyor belts" he could soon be available to the market again.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

VIN 203xx reported:

Official Model 3 VIN Tracker ...Please post last 4 or 5 of your VIN HIGHEST: 203xx @tenka! | Page 25 | Tesla

Right on schedule, but still same batch. Do you agree more with Bloomberg's 3k/w or Troy's 2k/w?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Peter Hochholdinger was a proponent of automating "manufacturing logistics." Here's how the Tesla Model 3 could change the auto industry forever

If he was instrumental in a "crazy complex set of conveyor belts" he could soon be available to the market again.

Elon may be more likely to keep people who overshoot ambitiously and fail, more so than your traditional CEO

 

[Waiting4M3]

Right on schedule, but still same batch. Do you agree more with Bloomberg's 3k/w or Troy's 2k/w?

Sorry to cut in, it fits right on the 2500/wk trend.

Edit, max VIN increased from ~15500 to 20500, increase of 5000 in 2 weeks

 

[Intl Professor]

Shift in gears but more basic than direct application to SP and investing. The lustrous Andrea James has a nice piece on her blog concerning interruptions and focus. (Even if you are whole—I am not—your children, employees, bosses, and co-workers can benefit from her wisdom. My forty-two year wife is about to return to college full-time this fall, for example. She needs to read it. As she does so I will shift to full-time dishwasher to that plus full-time cook. That will teach her!)

Sometimes the interruptions are the work | Andrea S. James, Solve For X Coaching

 

[EinSV]

Sorry to cut in, it fits right on the 2500/wk trend.

Edit, max VIN increased from ~15500 to 20500, increase of 5000 in 2 weeksView attachment 294417

This seems as good an estimate as any — with large error bars especially since we just had 2071/wk so my WAG would be about 2300-2700.

VIN assignment rates and invites are also up significantly so Bloomberg could turn out to be right. Too soon to tell IMO but I’m not ready to call 3000/wk so soon after 2071/wk.

 

[DurandalAI]

GM cutting 1,500 jobs at Ohio plant amid falling demand for small cars

GM keeps shrinking, but not quickly enough. April 26 will be an interesting day.

Tesla could buy one of these struggling ICE plants and simply put in new tooling and equipment for Model Y production.

Since CAFE standards aren’t going up, they don’t need to sell the smaller fuel efficient cars at a loss. The only problem is, what will they do when people clamor again for more fuel efficient vehicles when gasoline prices rise again?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Since CAFE standards aren’t going up, they don’t need to sell the smaller fuel efficient cars at a loss. The only problem is, what will they do when people clamor again for more fuel efficient vehicles when gasoline prices rise again?

That was how the Japanese got their start in the 70s, by offering smaller and more efficient cars that Detroit wasn't willing to make. The Japanese, Korean, Chinese automakers all have smaller vehicles in their lineup for their home market, they can quickly bring them here if Detroit insists on leaving the door open again.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This seems as good an estimate as any — with large error bars especially since we just had 2071/wk so my WAG would be about 2300-2700.

VIN assignment rates and invites are also up significantly so Bloomberg could turn out to be right. Too soon to tell IMO but I’m not ready to call 3000/wk so soon after 2071/wk.

I agree with that. I'm hoping for 3,000/wk by end-April, along with a solid burst-rate note in the next investor letter.

Since CAFE standards aren’t going up, they don’t need to sell the smaller fuel efficient cars at a loss. The only problem is, what will they do when people clamor again for more fuel efficient vehicles when gasoline prices rise again?

Funny you should bring that up: Patrick DeHaan ️ on Twitter and Patrick DeHaan ️ on Twitter

I expect $100 Brent and $4.50 premium gasoline per gallon later this year, with favorable cash flow and ASP implications for all things Tesla.

Tesla still uses $2.70 per gallon for premium gasoline, when estimating gas savings on its order pages. Current avg = $3.20 per gallon.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

This seems as good an estimate as any — with large error bars especially since we just had 2071/wk so my WAG would be about 2300-2700.

VIN assignment rates and invites are also up significantly so Bloomberg could turn out to be right. Too soon to tell IMO but I’m not ready to call 3000/wk so soon after 2071/wk.

The 2071 was the day the day CBS interview took place so I speculate that was the 9-10th. There was a quick spike before the end of quarter of M3 production and I have no reason to think that didn’t continue especially considering Elon hinting toward some of the bottle necks getting worked out. No matter your view of Elon’s projections, I don’t think he just shoots from hip and throws out numbers. I truly believe Elon thought his initial ramp prediction was possible but couldn’t experience any bottle necks. If this is true I could see the ramp following Elon's initial prediction as long as there are no new bottlenecks.

 

[RobStark]

Since CAFE standards aren’t going up, they don’t need to sell the smaller fuel efficient cars at a loss. The only problem is, what will they do when people clamor again for more fuel efficient vehicles when gasoline prices rise again?

BTW GM and Ford continue to make small cars in China and Ford in Europe as well.

 

[Subhuman]

For those interested in taking a deeper dive on NUMMI’s past this episode of “This American Life” is a must:

NUMMI 2015 - This American Life

It definitely colors some of the resistance to allow the UAW back in.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Time to Tesla.

 

[defc0n]

Today I’ve been debating whether or not I’ll be putting in a reservation deposit for a model Y once they open up. Math tells me not to give Tesla an interest free loan. But of course I don’t want to wait a much longer time to get one if I’m not in line. Wondering how long it will take the model 3 backlog to finally clear and what year it would be before you could get a model Y if not in line (2021? 2022?) Wife doesn’t want to be an early adopter due to increased build quality risk so there’s that battle I’d have to fight too.

That fact I’m even debating it now after watching the model 3 timeline play out makes me think initial model Y deposits will likely be greater than model 3. I suspect musk knows this and is a strong reason he scoffs at the idea of the need to raise capital in a traditional sense this year. I also suspect the reservation amount may be higher than the $1000 for model 3, maybe $1500 or $2000, which will help increase the amount of capital by a non-trivial amount.

I’m hoping to not spend more than $50k and want AWD. Not sure how feasible that is, yet.

Any guesstimates on how much capital they will raise from model Y deposits? Somewhere between $500mil - $1bil?