Just are pretty darn big volume wise. Then there is the issue of wedge angle for the windshield. After that is the issue of polarized sunglasses.
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Just are pretty darn big volume wise. Then there is the issue of wedge angle for the windshield. After that is the issue of polarized sunglasses.
Thumper
Active Member
On the S/X demand issue, there is much latent demand in the states that prohibit sales. This will be rectified at some point and that demand will be there. Timeline is murky though.
"Tesla TSLA, +0.62% doesn’t have to worry about a big hit to its bottom line as a result of tax reform because the company has already written down the value of its large deferred tax assets, telling investors in its last annual report they don’t know when they will be profitable enough to ever use them." Even with its losses, Tesla won’t take a big hit from lower tax rate
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'll just leave this here for discussion purposes: 2017 Tesla MODEL 3 Premium Long Range | eBay
This one's already up to $65,000 with more than a day to go... As prices tend to surge towards the end, I wouldn't be surprised if this one sells for more than $80,000, which means the buyer will pocket $25,000+ cash, in addition to saving $7,500 to $10,000 on their taxes, despite the fact that the second-hand buyer will not get to claim the federal and state tax credits and is buying a used car.
Note that Tesla is still anti-selling this car, but probably for not much longer. Model 3 probably accelerates quicker than advertised, probably goes longer on one charge, probably charges quicker, etc. etc. Flippers will continue to make $20,000+ on each sale for months to come. Especially as gas prices continue to rise, Tesla will not be able to get ahead of this trend.
Also, think about what this means for Model Y Week 1 reservations: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
I expect @mrdoubleb to be the first in line camping outside: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
This one's already up to $65,000 with more than a day to go... As prices tend to surge towards the end, I wouldn't be surprised if this one sells for more than $80,000, which means the buyer will pocket $25,000+ cash, in addition to saving $7,500 to $10,000 on their taxes, despite the fact that the second-hand buyer will not get to claim the federal and state tax credits and is buying a used car.
Note that Tesla is still anti-selling this car, but probably for not much longer. Model 3 probably accelerates quicker than advertised, probably goes longer on one charge, probably charges quicker, etc. etc. Flippers will continue to make $20,000+ on each sale for months to come. Especially as gas prices continue to rise, Tesla will not be able to get ahead of this trend.
Also, think about what this means for Model Y Week 1 reservations: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
I expect @mrdoubleb to be the first in line camping outside: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
1Q18 Model 3 deliveries will be between 15,000 to 20,000 units, given the revised ramp, but too early for that poll.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Note that Tesla is not yet at 1,000 units steady, and probably will not be until exit-January, and also: will it get to 2,500/week by exit-1Q18?
"in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week."
Drumheller
Active Member
VA, there are people out there that HAVE to have the latest thing, regardless of cost. This is not new to Tesla or the Model 3, and it doesn't mean there are vast quantities of people like this. Ebay has allowed people to observe this situation for decades. When a new video game console is released and quantities are limited, you can find people selling them on Ebay for double the sticker price. Does that mean hundreds of thousands of gamers are willing to pay double the MSRP? No.
There are people with enough money that the cost of overpaying for a Model 3 is nothing compared to their satisfaction in having one RIGHT NOW before most other people. That's a handful of people, not thousands, and certainly not hundreds of thousands.
The price of the Model 3 LR, with options, is already curbing demand. Plenty of people are interested, but the base $35,000 is a stretch for them. Anything beyond that is not realistic.
Also note that those folks flipping the car, as well as those buying from the flippers, are not eligible for the tax credit. (Not valid for vehicles purchased for resale, nor for resale purchases.) Not that this would stop every one from claiming it, but if they're audited they'll have some 'splaining to do to the IRS.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Unfortunately last quarter's eye-opening jump in SG&A prevents "analysts" from assuming your optimistic scenario.
There will be some leverage to historical R&D spending in the coming quarters, but can't say the same for SG&A until Model 3 ramps to 5,000.
The second revision to Model 3 production ramp was highly detrimental to 1Q18 and 2Q18 projections. We'll see about 2H18...
If:
Lines were run long enough to get valid rate data, including material movements.
And
There was no major refurbishment of line after the run.
Then
they can run at 1k/wk if parts show up in sufficient quantities.
Running one shift of 100 vehicles without depleting the buffers or other corner cutting activities correlates strongly to 1k/wk with 2 shifts.
It’s very unclear if Model3 battery pack production is up to 1000/week or what the near term ability to ramp pack production is.
Based on the previous discussions regarding pack production they are using an interim solution while the high speed automatic line is being redesigned / installed.
So, production may be plateaued at <1000/week for sometime
Based on the previous discussions regarding pack production they are using an interim solution while the high speed automatic line is being redesigned / installed.
So, production may be plateaued at <1000/week for sometime
Ulmo
Active Member
Right now, Saturday 1pm, factory parking by freeway looks 35% full.
I saw what appeared to be a repositioning crew repositioning some Model 3’s via manual self propulsion. I didn’t see where they were setting their location.
The temporary Model 3 staging area by Thermo has the compression fence in about the same spot, and there is only about one half of the lot full of Model 3’s (the rest empty).
Now to look at rear by tracks:
That parking lot is now full of new Teslas, models S, X, and 3, and some used, and half a dozen car carriers in various states of loading. I presume this is a logistics yard where they place all the car carrier staging, so all new and used Teslas to be car carriered go there.
And the delivery center:
The parking area in back where they keep new cars is almost full, about 90%, mixed with S, X, 3, mostly 3. The driveway into the building has about a dozen Model 3’s queued to go in; there’s not enough empty spaces in the back lot to account for that queue, except for one empty parking row by the canal that has more empty spaces than that queue has cars. It seems as though the repositioners were bringing cars here from the factory area.
Within the time to write that paragraph, I saw one new owner and his ride drive out. While leaving, I saw one new owner prepping their car; they got ready with another Model 3 owner (new also?).
I don’t know what’s happening, but to me it seems likely a third of the factory workforce can manufacture Model 3’s, or do other factory work, and their logistics network can deliver Tesla cars in bulk. I’ll be interested to see the numbers this year.
I saw what appeared to be a repositioning crew repositioning some Model 3’s via manual self propulsion. I didn’t see where they were setting their location.
The temporary Model 3 staging area by Thermo has the compression fence in about the same spot, and there is only about one half of the lot full of Model 3’s (the rest empty).
Now to look at rear by tracks:
That parking lot is now full of new Teslas, models S, X, and 3, and some used, and half a dozen car carriers in various states of loading. I presume this is a logistics yard where they place all the car carrier staging, so all new and used Teslas to be car carriered go there.
And the delivery center:
The parking area in back where they keep new cars is almost full, about 90%, mixed with S, X, 3, mostly 3. The driveway into the building has about a dozen Model 3’s queued to go in; there’s not enough empty spaces in the back lot to account for that queue, except for one empty parking row by the canal that has more empty spaces than that queue has cars. It seems as though the repositioners were bringing cars here from the factory area.
Within the time to write that paragraph, I saw one new owner and his ride drive out. While leaving, I saw one new owner prepping their car; they got ready with another Model 3 owner (new also?).
I don’t know what’s happening, but to me it seems likely a third of the factory workforce can manufacture Model 3’s, or do other factory work, and their logistics network can deliver Tesla cars in bulk. I’ll be interested to see the numbers this year.
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2virgule5
Member
Between 36+ and 40k. Getting to more than 25k S/X may be hard if worker allocation to M3 has to continue, because some inventory has to be rebuilt, let alone restocking SC in loaners. It's too soon to assume we are consistently at 1000+/week and that ramp will be linear. So I'm staying conversative at 13200 M3 on the low end, up to 16500 if all is smooth to 2500/w run rate the very last week. All of that is production, so between 1k and 2k in transit.
No, that isn’t why the first two US deliveries of a quarter are lower - Tesla usually batches their foreign market manufacturing for the first two months of the quarters, so indeed, they sell less cars in the US in the first two months of any given quarter.
It's not just audits. The opportunists may not recognize the risks of IRS' Whistleblower program.
Whistleblower Informant Award | Internal Revenue Service
The VIN has to be included on the form claiming the credit, and those VINs are in the Ebay auction listings. Listing a vehicle for resale within days or weeks of taking possession is a prima facie indication of intent. Getting on the wrong side of a tax collector's *sugar* list is no fun.
One seller on Ebay was clever enough to use an S VIN, and Ebay reported five sold listings for that VIN:
2018 Tesla Model 3 Premium | eBay
2018 Tesla Model 3 Premium | eBay
2018 Tesla Model 3 Premium | eBay
2018 Tesla Model 3 Premium | eBay
2018 Tesla Model 3 Premium | eBay
The Effects of Filing a False Tax Return
I figured out why elon said It won't matter when asked about extended warranty for model 3. Tesla network should be active by then, and if your car is added to the network it will stay in warranty for free. I think the seats will be replaced after certain amount of miles are driven, also for free. For those not in network no extended warranty.
Re HUD and windshield angle issues : We've already seen a form of HUD on Roadster 2020 prototype, in the AC vent in front both driver and passenger. Not enough real estate to replace the full awareness display from the existing S/X "gauge cluster", but better than nothing, and while lower resolution might still provide significant information through various indicator lights and such.
So perhaps HUD has nothing to do with front window.
So perhaps HUD has nothing to do with front window.
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