The point @ggr was trying to refute IMHO is that Tesla would have picked this person because he had just the right config which they wanted to deliver and didn´t find an S/X owner for. So your argument really points in the same direction as his in that this doesn´t make sense - neither did they know before they picked him what he´d configure nor are the configurations specific enough they´d likely have trouble to find someone to deliver it to.
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The point @ggr was trying to refute IMHO is that Tesla would have picked this person because he had just the right config which they wanted to deliver and didn´t find an S/X owner for. So your argument really points in the same direction as his in that this doesn´t make sense - neither did they know before they picked him what he´d configure nor are the configurations specific enough they´d likely have trouble to find someone to deliver it to.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I predict 2 million reservations for Model Y in the first week:
- Model 3 reservations reached 180k in 24 hours Elon Musk on Twitter
- Crossover/SUV market is 2x as large as auto
- Model Y will shave off $5k in wiring cost and start production in 2019 below $75/kWh at the pack level (using Semi incremental pricing)
- By 2Q18, my estimate for Model Y reveal date, Tesla's fleet size will be 10x of what is was at Model 3 Reveal in March 2016
- Model Y Reveal may include geofenced Level 4 demo and Tesla Network introduction
Drumheller
Active Member
There is a Model 3 starting a USA tour and setting up meeting points of people to check out the car.
Tesla Model 3 Road Trip You can RSVP to see it and some will get to do test drives.
You can also track it's location and speed here:
Glympse - Default Viewer
Tesla Model 3 Road Trip You can RSVP to see it and some will get to do test drives.
You can also track it's location and speed here:
Glympse - Default Viewer
I think it will top up M3 reservation for sure, but not sure about the 2 million. That's a lot in a week .... even though there is much more awareness than in March 2016. I think we can easily double what we got during the first week of the M3 reveal, but not quite to 2 million....
I believe you will reconsider that 2 million number once whatever you're smoking wears off.
If this is truly your beliefs then you would take out a second mortgage and be at 2x leveraged if not even more. It would be instant noodles every night so you can put every cent in to this totally under valued stock. If not talk is cheap.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I believe you will reconsider that 2 million number once whatever you're smoking wears off.
Did you predict 500,000?
powertoold
Active Member
Depends, with the roadster Tesla beat ICE in almost every conceivable performance metric.
It's possible with the Model Y, Tesla will beat ICE on value and price, starting at $25k.
If so, a million preorders would be reasonable.
It's possible with the Model Y, Tesla will beat ICE on value and price, starting at $25k.
If so, a million preorders would be reasonable.
I really doubt this, even if they save some money on wiring reductions, they like their gross margins, and I'd expect they might just throw in the Falcon Wing Doors to keep the price up. It certainly makes no sense to unveil a bigger / "better" (subjectively) vehicle than the 3 for less money.
If they do this though, I would expect that the 3 (and perhaps S/X) gets a revision to use the same wiring techniques as the Y before or around the same time as the Y starts production and a corresponding price reduction. I doubt we'll see either 3 or Y drop below $30k base though even if they can shave off a lot of production cost, instead I think they would aim for higher margins on the cars, plus I expect Y to always cost more than 3, just as X costs more than S - it's more car.
In addition as the prices come down Tesla will probably add features instead of reducing the price. For example add AWD to all Model 3s. (That seems to be what they have been doing on the S/X.)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There was a poster here on TMC about a year ago with thousands of post that insisted the base Model 3 would come with a 100 kWh pack and free unlimited supercharging forever. And berated people that thought otherwise. Apparently he still lurks but doesn't post much anymore.
The optimism for the future can get carried away. Before price reductions we need a base Model Y with 250 miles of EPA range and 25% margins. I see a first year base Model Y with 220 miles of range and a starting price of $38k.
The optimism for the future can get carried away. Before price reductions we need a base Model Y with 250 miles of EPA range and 25% margins. I see a first year base Model Y with 220 miles of range and a starting price of $38k.
2 years ago? We’re almost in 2018. Unless we’re thinking of different people.
I doub't they would go below 30-35k either. even if they could build the vehicle for 10k they should still be selling it in the 30k area because it is worth that much when compared to other vehicles and they would likely still be production constrained. They should only drop the price due to competition or a saturated market.
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
Things to look forward to in 2018:
2018 the year electric cars go mainstream
Tesla Roadster in space or in pieces on Falcon Heavy in January
New Factory Announcements in Q1 (US, Europe and China)
Coat to Coast autonomous drive in Q1
Introduction of Performance Model 3
Scale production begins for Tesla Solar Roof
Model 3 Ramp to 10,000 vehicles per week before we exit the year
Predictions for 2018:
Tesla cash flow positive by end of year.
2018 Revenue approaching $25B, 100% year on year growth
Model Y introduction event and pre-orders opens up in Q2 2018 courtesy of ValueAnalyst. A million pre-orders in the first week.
$3-5 Billion capital raise to accelerate new factories, towards end of year.
Ground breaking of new Gigafactory east coast (Model 3/Y), Europe and China to come in 2019
Interior Refresh for Model S Fall of 2018 which includes a next generation HUD. Model X will follow in early 2019.
Stock price touches $600 a share on massive short squeeze, $100B market cap reached for the first time.
2018 the year electric cars go mainstream
Tesla Roadster in space or in pieces on Falcon Heavy in January
New Factory Announcements in Q1 (US, Europe and China)
Coat to Coast autonomous drive in Q1
Introduction of Performance Model 3
Scale production begins for Tesla Solar Roof
Model 3 Ramp to 10,000 vehicles per week before we exit the year
Predictions for 2018:
Tesla cash flow positive by end of year.
2018 Revenue approaching $25B, 100% year on year growth
Model Y introduction event and pre-orders opens up in Q2 2018 courtesy of ValueAnalyst. A million pre-orders in the first week.
$3-5 Billion capital raise to accelerate new factories, towards end of year.
Ground breaking of new Gigafactory east coast (Model 3/Y), Europe and China to come in 2019
Interior Refresh for Model S Fall of 2018 which includes a next generation HUD. Model X will follow in early 2019.
Stock price touches $600 a share on massive short squeeze, $100B market cap reached for the first time.
You guys are getting ahead of yourselves expecting pre-orders in the million + range. A small SUV will certainly hit a big part of the market, but those designs tend to be more polarizing. Franz will need to hit it out of the park to get that kind of demand. On top of this the Model 3 will have absorbed enough of the market that it will certainly dampen pre-orders for the Model Y.
As always, I would love to be wrong, but I think those numbers are extremely high. It Tesla can get the demand they did from the Model 3 and get 300 - 400k that would be amazing.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I am willing to bet on this if the following additional factors are added -
1) A million orders in the first month. It will take time for people to consider whether they want to order or not.
2) Worldwide orders. One nation e.g. USA won't mobilise enough interest, but the whole world could do it.
Don't forget that when the Model 3 was revealed, visitors to this forum all believed Tesla was super-famous, but only Model S + X existed... not many had had experience with aspirational BEVs.
By the time Model Y is revealed, Tesla will be more even more super-famous, and there will be a lot more Model 3s, around the USA at least. It takes personal experience for people to grok electric cars. IMO we are actually still quite near the top of the hill that the BEV snowball is rolling down.
One more thing - when the Model 3 was revealed and had half a million pre-orders, not everyone knew, or was confident, Tesla would/could deliver reasonably on time. But they have shown that they began deliveries 18 months after the reveal, and have been delivering thousands of cars within 2 years of the reveal. This will help potential reservers of the Model Y to make their decisions.
Agreed. Additionally, they may keep the price point high to encourage use of mass transit/ TaaS along with funding all the other expansions.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Thanks for this list. Note that I tend to be optimistic on timelines, but the following are where I differ:
- Cash flow positive as of 4Q17;
- $30B revenue in 2018 assuming 10,000/week Model 3's at exit-18;
- Model Y could be revealed earlier since Model 3 demand is way beyond possible supply (i.e. Osborne is not a big concern), and it would make sense to halt ICE crossover sales ASAP;
- Tesla will internally fund its growth going forward;
- Subsequent Gigafactory groundbreaking in 2018 and online in 2020/21;
- Model S/X redesign can't wait until Fall since Model 3 is already entering volume production (i.e. Osborne is a concern)
- I'd be surprised if a short squeeze didn't take SP above the level you mentioned.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Some evidence that the queue for employee deliveries, at least near Fremont, is close to being cleared.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Can someone please argue against my 30% long-term market share in a 5 million unit global TAM estimate for Model 3?
Key components:
Key components:
- 1 million unit U.S. TAM times 5 = Global TAM for ICE cars with MSRP between $25k and $50k
- Model S achieved 30% U.S. market share in four years, Model X did the same in 2 years, Model 3 will do it in 1 year.
- 30% of Global TAM will require additional Gigafactories, so 2020/21;
- Shift from cars to crossovers/SUV in 2014/15/16 were driven by lower oil prices, which are now increasing, so tide is turning; and
- Used car market, which is 3x of new car market, will lose some value-driven 1-2-year-old used car buyers to Model 3.
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