1101011
Proud TSLA/SCTY shareholder since 2013.
Seems a foolish approach. Reminiscent of sourcing vast quantities of petroleum products from the Middle East -> OPEC.
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Seems a foolish approach. Reminiscent of sourcing vast quantities of petroleum products from the Middle East -> OPEC.
I don't know.
As we all get used to weight the words of Tesla Management more carefully we likely discount whatever they say one day which may enable them one day to surprise us...
Right now we have just not enough data points to make a plan when the Semi comes to market. Having heard EM is planning for 100k vehicles in 4 years is very bullish but I believe the demand is out there as the Semi in my view is a game changer.
BTW, people somehow have overheard that he said in the CC that the specs are even more impressive than presented at launch. So there is more good news about specs to come.
ValueAnalyst
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If you don't know the answer to my timeline question, how can you claim "nobody so far can compete with the Semi range?" and even say that this is a "fact?" It's difficult to compete with something that doesn't exist or may not exist in volume for five years according to some... don't you think?
Technically I think so. Tesla shipped cars (Roadsters) in 2008, 2009, 2010, but hardly any in 2011 or 2012.
Thats about the same wording the European commission replied to the automakers about their position. The wording was almost as hard as yours ......
Don't know, either we are all dump and they are that smart (next level) that we don't get it or...... I better don't thing about the "or"....
There is no German EV car on the road that can compete on the outlined aspects with the existing Tesla cars and the specs for yet not existing Semi and Roadster - thats a fact, right?!
With the bad sentiment spread around model 3 $35,000 delays, I am not sure we will see a million pre-orders in the first week TBH. Elon has a way of blowing our mind and absolutely want the product at the reveal, but does that magic still work? Sure did at the semi reveal
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ValueAnalyst
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With the bad sentiment spread around model 3 $35,000 delays, I am not sure we will see a million pre-orders in the first week TBH. Elon has a way of blowing our mind and absolutely want the product at the reveal, but does that magic still work? Sure did at the semi reveal
I should have seen this coming, but one key factor I naively failed to incorporate in my Customer Deposits prediction was the high deposit amounts. I also think potential buyers were deterred by the continued Model 3 delays (i.e. "will I really get my Roadster in three years if I hand Tesla $50,000 interest free?"). If Tesla sets the Model Y deposit amount at $1,000, and gains back customer trust by then, I would still expect one million reservations. Different story at $5,000 after a third or fourth round of Model 3 delays.
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Pre-orders will most probably not start this week (or next) though, and many things may change until it happens. Also depends on deposit amount, as VA pointed out.With the bad sentiment spread around model 3 $35,000 delays, I am not sure we will see a million pre-orders in the first week TBH. Elon has a way of blowing our mind and absolutely want the product at the reveal, but does that magic still work? Sure did at the semi reveal
One issue for driving on the autobahn is that autopilot currently tops out at 90mph, while cars in the tesla price category often go 110mph and more. The autobahn is a nieche market, this does not exist outside of germany even in neighboring countries. Call it home-advantage for mercedes/bmw etc, plugin-hybrids will be more likely to handle this gracefully in the near-term.
That being said, I would love for having a Model 3 or Model X on my next vacation in germany, and put it to the test
MY pre-orders will not begin until M3 ramp is a success. If M3 production goals no longer slip and the Q1, Q2 objectives are now met .. it will be a different ball game. So best to just see how the M3 ramp goes on for next 5-6 mths.
ValueAnalyst
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When do you expect Tesla to reach 5k/wk and 10k/wk? I think the latter is key to price action in 2018.
Based on all the misses, I think expectations need to be tempered.
5K/wk - end of Q2, most likely means 5K/wk full rates - earliest starting of Q4, or end of Q4
10k/wk - before we see this we will likely see some for of cap raise, GF announcement, MY pre-orders ...and so forth ... so too early for me to even think about
Krugerrand
Meow
Oh, can I bet against that prediction?
Not sure how you would even model for this. The new Grohmann lines need to be installed and fully optimized. Once that's done I don't believe we have any color on how profitable or optimizable the current semi automatic lines are. So there is no way to really know the future of those lines. Do they get phased out? Do they continue to run? In either scenario at what rate does it happen? Too many variables with too little publicly available information. Of course, I may have missed something, but modeling for it just seems like hubris at this point.
ValueAnalyst
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Yes, which is exactly why no sell-side analyst is predicting this anytime in 2018 (and 2019 I think).
I'd bet against it as well. Lol, did you create an account just to troll VA?
ValueAnalyst
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