General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[22522]

Consumer Reports new video, 20 minutes, all on the Model 3,

Finally!

This is significant. Nice fork. Wonder if he has tried Maxxis Forekaster tires on the front? (the front tire that is on that beautiful bike washed out too much for me and had to go.) It looks like an Ironhorse Sunday would fit - front wheel off. Two road bikes with a little fixture assistance...

All in all, this review is very positive for Tesla. It portends a demographic match.

 

[RobStark]

Steel costs $300 per metric ton for billets, the whole M3 weighs 1.7 metric ton, even if all of it is steel, 25% is still just a $127 increase, or 0.4% of the M3's base price $35K.

Tesla uses some of that steel. I think it is a higher quality for the mild steel used for the quarter panels for example.

Then there is high strength steel and ultra high strength steel.

Also $1 per pound is for the raw Aluminum material not automotive grade sheet rolls.

 

[stef]

For those interested in filtering out VAT effect, pricing of I-pace in Switzerland are available also on jag Swiss website.
They say “starting from 82’800 chf.
Here model X 75D starts at 84’500 chf.
Just a datapoint.

Edit: interestingly it doesn’t seem to have a frunk...

 

[schonelucht]

Powerwall 2.0 price increased a modest $400. Makes sense all around. Take advantage of strong demand to help disappointing margins on the storage segment.

 

[avoigt]

Detroit's 'Big 3' automakers each experienced a decline in sales in February when compared to the same month last year, but Tesla Inc. (TSLA - Get Report) may have bucked that trend. Tesla's sales surged 76% in February over the previous year, according to data from insideevs.com.

Tesla does not offer monthly sales figures, but insideevs.com's channel checks suggests that Tesla sold 2,485 Model 3 units, 1,125 Model S units and 875 Model X units.

Model S sales were down 36% year over over, but up 41% month to month. Model X sales were up 9% year over year and 25% month to month.
Tesla's Sales Might Be on Fire Right Now

 

[avoigt]

Not to mention wheel options ranging from 18" up to 22" with performance tires. The relatively short gearing (124 mph top speed) probably contributes to some additional drivetrain inefficiency. It's also possible that they're playing it safe and not using the entire 90 kWh pack.

All-in-all, the I-Pace looks like a very good Model Y competitor. Given how popular CUVs are right now, Jaguar certainly picked a good vehicle to use for their EV debut.

For those interested in filtering out VAT effect, pricing of I-pace in Switzerland are available also on jag Swiss website.
They say “starting from 82’800 chf.
Here model X 75D starts at 84’500 chf.
Just a datapoint.

If we bring this information together we have a car with specs below current Tesla Models (small vehicle, two motors, 90 kWh Battery, small range etc.) for a price people get a upper class ICE car or a S or X with more range and most important charging infrastructure.

As much as I want to call the I-Pace a great car it really is not what I do expect from Jaguar or other automakers in order to build solid demand. If you are an educated buyer you will choose a Tesla as you just get more for you $/€s. What I look for is a EV car that has either better specs than Tesla or a better price for the same specs.

The question I am asking myself is, is that car a vehicle that motivates people who drive an ICE car today to buy an EV that is not a Tesla.

I hope I am wrong and they do but looking at what I learned about the I-Pace in the last 24 hours I am disappointed.

 

[mutle]

Fish in a barrel. But, the Tesla truck isn't going to look like a traditional pickup. I don't know how they are going to do it, but it's like the semi. The semi looks nothing like a traditional semi because the cab can be so far forward because of the lack of an engine. Look at a traditional pickup with that long boxy front end. That's what people interpret as a truck. How will Tesla make it a Tesla. It's much harder then a car and it will be interesting. People don't care much what the semi looks like as long as it works good. They will be more discerning when it comes to a pickup. What ever they come up with, EVs should make great trucks because of all the torque and the can forward design should allow for more hauling. But can they make it look cool. I can't even imagine it. It's a challenge.

We don’t have many „boxy pickup style“ Trucks in Europe. They all have a flat front like this: https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=...d=OIP.l7K--orXe4pV0F0DpYyWmQHaEE&pid=15.1&f=1

 

[Runarbt]

"...specs below current Tesla Models (small vehicle, two motors, 90 kWh Battery, small range etc.)"

range? i do believe range is better, 75 vs.90KW should do it?

 

[sweter]

Prices in GBP might include vat. So a fair comparison would require that we figure that out for sure and back that out. I wonder what the difference is trims is. What makes the HSE so expensive. Vat can be as high as 20% so the HSE would be more inline with model X 75D in terms of price.

Typically it would include 20% VAT and 4.5k GBP incentive (that's what Tesla puts on their UK site). Just not sure if the incentive is pre- or post- VAT.

 

[W84M3]

Update:

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Steel costs $300 per metric ton for billets, the whole M3 weighs 1.7 metric ton, even if all of it is steel, 25% is still just a $127 increase, or 0.4% of the M3's base price $35K.

Correct, except for the fact that Model 3 ASP will be closer to $60k in 2018, so less than 0.3% impact = Buy the dip w/out leverage due to macro.

 

[avoigt]

"...specs below current Tesla Models (small vehicle, two motors, 90 kWh Battery, small range etc.)"

range? i do believe range is better, 75 vs.90KW should do it?

Battery size is not a good metrics any more to determine the range of a vehicle, its an indication but not a determining factor. If you compare Battery size, # Motors, with range and costs than you certainly will agree that a Tesla will give you more value for your money.... not to mention factors like battery lifecycle where Tesla has set a complete new standard in the industry...

 

[Reciprocity]

Update:

View attachment 283852

Sad. Are the at least dual motor vins?

 

[DurandalAI]

Fish in a barrel. But, the Tesla truck isn't going to look like a traditional pickup. I don't know how they are going to do it, but it's like the semi. The semi looks nothing like a traditional semi because the cab can be so far forward because of the lack of an engine. Look at a traditional pickup with that long boxy front end. That's what people interpret as a truck. How will Tesla make it a Tesla. It's much harder then a car and it will be interesting. People don't care much what the semi looks like as long as it works good. They will be more discerning when it comes to a pickup. What ever they come up with, EVs should make great trucks because of all the torque and the can forward design should allow for more hauling. But can they make it look cool. I can't even imagine it. It's a challenge.

Oh man, that’s actually a great and killer selling point. Since the cab can be right up front like the Tesla Semi with no front hood, then you can have an extended length bed in the back without having an extended length truck! Not to mention it would have amazing tow capacity.

 

[mongo]

Oh man, that’s actually a great and killer selling point. Since the cab can be right up front like the Tesla Semi with no front hood, then you can have an extended length bed in the back without having an extended length truck! Not to mention it would have amazing tow capacity.

I would love a ten foot bed (standard pipe length) (even a bed extension under the rear seats would work). Critical feature is that they need to put enough weight over the rear tires to give traction. With cabs positioned as they are, the bed weight alone barely allows you to go (take it off and you just hop hop hop). That's why I stay in 4WD, so I can corner (right on red). Of course, getting the huge chunk of iron out of the front would improve weight distribution and likely help a lot.

Large pack toward the rear would be great (esp if it still goes under the cab for protection (big pack, lots of range ))

 

[EinSV]

Moving to the General Thread ....

Your points are all speculation. Tesla would be foolish to release MY reservations without first significantly reducing the backlog of M3 orders, IMO MY will not take reservations until 2019 and production will not begin until 2000. Focus, as the vehicles are released are Semi before MY which is another reason why MY is likely to take longer to market than expected.

To add to this point, Tesla doesn't want to start taking MY reservations when the majority of Model 3 reservations are still unresolved, because of the fear many Model 3 reservation holders would switch to an MY reservation instead if they prefer that vehicle over the Model 3.

This would possibly create an over-supply of Model 3 vehicles (unimaginable at the moment), ruining Tesla's ability to fund the expensive Model 3 ramp up.

Hard to be sure, but I would guess that it is more likely that the gating item is ramping production of Model 3 to ~5K/week rather than clearing out the Model 3 reservations.

It is going to take a long time for the Model 3 reservation line to get cleared out since more customers are likely to jump into line as production ramps up. I don't think Elon will slow down the Model Y program to clear out the pre-orders on the Model 3.

Also, opening up Model Y reservations while there is still a large pipeline of Model 3 reservations should give Tesla insight into the relative and absolute demand for the 3 and Y, which should help them right size Model 3 and Y production capacity.

Admittedly a guess but my WAG is for a Model Y reveal later this year and production beginning in 2019.

 

[DurandalAI]

Moving to the General Thread ....





Hard to be sure, but I would guess that it is more likely that the gating item is ramping production of Model 3 to ~5K/week rather than clearing out the Model 3 reservations.

It is going to take a long time for the Model 3 reservation line to get cleared out since more customers are likely to jump into line as production ramps up. I don't think Elon will slow down the Model Y program to clear out the pre-orders on the Model 3.

Also, opening up Model Y reservations while there is still a large pipeline of Model 3 reservations should give Tesla insight into the relative and absolute demand for the 3 and Y, which should help them right size Model 3 and Y production capacity.

Admittedly a guess but my WAG is for a Model Y reveal later this year and production beginning in 2019.

Originally I was going to disagree with you, but then I recalled that the Model Y is being based off the Model 3 platform, which means the 3 an Y could potentially share the same line in case Model 3 demand drops. In any event, I expect Model Y demand to outstrip Model 3 demand considerably, especially if there isn’t too high of a price premium of the Y over the 3. I know between the two I would prefer the Y, but I can’t delay a new vehicle purchase to 2020+ as the delay to late 2018 early 2019 is a bit much already.

 

[Reciprocity]

Oh man, that’s actually a great and killer selling point. Since the cab can be right up front like the Tesla Semi with no front hood, then you can have an extended length bed in the back without having an extended length truck! Not to mention it would have amazing tow capacity.

Yeah, but it would be ugly..haha. Thats the challenge. How do you make it better then a pickup today and not alienate truck lovers. The semi is more about operational costs then looks, but a pickup in places like Texas is a status symbol. Especially the higher margin fancy ones. I think that @RobStark probably nailed it. It will have a nice sized frunk which could really be great to hold tools that you want to lock up while you might have materials in the back.

 

[TheDoktor]

I would love a ten foot bed (standard pipe length) (even a bed extension under the rear seats would work). Critical feature is that they need to put enough weight over the rear tires to give traction. With cabs positioned as they are, the bed weight alone barely allows you to go (take it off and you just hop hop hop). That's why I stay in 4WD, so I can corner (right on red). Of course, getting the huge chunk of iron out of the front would improve weight distribution and likely help a lot.

Large pack toward the rear would be great (esp if it still goes under the cab for protection (big pack, lots of range ))

What you describe sounds a lot like the millions of small trucks used all over the world...just not in the USA

 

[TheDoktor]

Yeah, but it would be ugly..haha. Thats the challenge. How do you make it better then a pickup today and not alienate truck lovers. The semi is more about operational costs then looks, but a pickup in places like Texas is a status symbol. Especially the higher margin fancy ones. I think that @RobStark probably nailed it. It will have a nice sized frunk which could really be great to hold tools that you want to lock up while you might have materials in the back.